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781  Economy / Economics / Re: "I saw my salary on a bottle of perfume today" on: November 10, 2023, 10:20:53 PM
Theres gigantic inequality I would not be surprised at all.  To some extent this isnt not a new modern world occurrence, think of the ancient spices and alot of them were exotic perfumes imported from lands months away when the world was much bigger and travel slower.  Yet some people could afford the giant luxuries and justify this trade, it didnt turn out negatively as we still remember the silk road being so much of the old world trade its legendary.
  The margins on this product are beyond 99% I think.  I was listening to the prices behind coke and I thought they made alot more then they do its only like 12% and the retailer makes more then the maker themselves.  Makeup and perfume is very high margin, watch all the adverts they put out in peak season year end its not a coincidence.
782  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Sad reality: some countries gamble more than they can afford on: November 10, 2023, 09:10:55 PM
Even physically a big boat can setup in international waters and have people come gamble whether any particular country likes or not.  People can spend their money how they like and modern day its very easy to visit any business you choose to do so.   
  I get the general take it is unfortunate to spend on gambling the money leaves that economy I guess but Greece is part of the Euro so its not exactly insular in that way.   Governments often setup their own gambling for this reason, licensing or possibly flat taxation of the gambling business is seen as a valuable regular budget income.
783  Economy / Speculation / Re: 127% Up from Bottom in 2022 on: November 09, 2023, 11:59:55 PM
Figures like this are good to write down to remind us why BTC can sell off early before its done with the full gain.  People who have been holding this entire year want to cash out some of their gains which is totally natural.   That harsh pullback does not mean its the new lower price, no price is an absolute truth that cannot be disputed its only correct in that moment to match buyers and sellers together.
   Most obvious inaccurate prices is when people rush to sell at any price, so fear events do this and often it will correct back up also hence the V formation on a chart.   I reckon we can get 30k now and it'd be ok still, I will surprised with no proper pullback at all theres always some kind of test in a healthy bull run.
784  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 09, 2023, 11:51:08 PM
Anyone into AI should be reading all of Arthur C Clarke books, he explored this all years ago.   Im not sure Elon will have done so but its relevant for exploring all the logical constructs that a robot might be need when it has the power in multiple avenues to maybe threaten humans.    
    I think they are finding with AI being slightly considerate of the person is relevant, you cannot just dismiss someone's presence and declare them last or least valuable employee or worker in a situation.   Also giving out instructions for explosives and all kinds of possible solutions a robot or AI might not recognize is restricted not freely spoken information, this interface with humans has been considered going back many decades in sci-fi I think its becoming finally relevant now.


In the vast majority AI should be an obvious positive to society, a few times a persons job might become eclipsed in some way but my main take is none of this is new as a transformation its a continuation of the industrial revolution imo.
785  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC Sentiment Poll for November on: November 09, 2023, 10:59:33 PM
I voted I dont know because its all yet to be proven.  The price action again recently is bullish but I have trust issues which how long a push upwards lasts in any perfect way.   We are now today challenging the ancient history of 2022 opening months when we had fallen off the ATH and it was fairly hard as sell off.   If there isnt much volume in that area it could be easier then expected.
786  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: November 08, 2023, 11:58:22 PM
A lot of people right now care more about what is happening to the Trump case than what is happening in the US itself.


Some would argue what is happening in the Trump case is what is happening to the USA.  As if he is that important but people like to personalize an argument I guess, its simpler and more succinct to argue over then all the varied dynamics and layers of change to USA good or bad.
   I only got 1 point both Trump and Biden are at the tail end of their careers and working life times, they may not be here to really reflect the questions that need answering for USA to be ok in ten or twenty years.   Its true in many countries but leaders are more then a little biased age wise, quite a few dynamics important to implement  now are technology or infrastructure based.   Lucky its not just 1 person but an entire administration but still its surprising most countries elect the oldest even India with average age below 30 elects someone born 73 years ago.
    If thats a general trend, we should discount the odds of anyone younger for chances of getting in.
787  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 08, 2023, 11:25:06 PM
Im a proponent of the snakes n ladder theory to BTC moves, it dont move straight it moves like a snake back and forth :p  

Quote
Once the BTC price has gone up the rewards will decrease further. I am continuing to spin the WoF spin every few days and see what I got today.

Yea that was my reasoning Oct start think it was, I dont know if I was correct but on balance it was not the time to be holding seemed like the best guess.   Now we had some pretty aggressive gains, as usual I guess it was compressed into a short space of time like a spring it released all that energy end of last month pretty much.   We are in no way negative now but my next guess, throw of the dice if you like not that I really know but I'm looking at charts for space we can move to and downwards seems more applicable.
   I hardly mind if we just keep going up but also based on what I know and have seen over a decade or more I think we are more contrary in our path.    Only small point is I havent yet returned back to BTC holding I had prior to the original post pandemic rise so I wasnt minding the weakness so much its a better value add.  Consistent rise up would be cool too, wont be upset :p
788  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 08, 2023, 10:40:53 PM
Forget AI for this end all idea, its way off as effecting labor market to that extent and we can argue robotics and industry in general has been altering human jobs for years in removing the most demanding tasks especially physically.   
  The introduction of anything close to free energy would far more alter the entire economy and change work as we know it imo.   That change is not apparently close by but neither is AI gigantically replacing human capabilities imo.    Enhancement is more the aspect is how we should consider AI
789  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has anybody expected this? on: November 07, 2023, 11:42:14 PM
Should never expect the rise but be ready for the possibility, I always think we go up when people consider a rise impossible then the selling is likely over.   Right now we appear too positive and people not considering the pullback, since either is normal I have to expect the pullback now despite appearances.
The whole of this week we have been in touch with a weekly average, the lows go to that moving average then we rise back again because we held the line it means we have been going up.  However MA is just momentum its not literal support, we know for sure there are lines of resistance ahead like icebergs in the Atlantic its certain because we know the history of the selloff from the top.  So when do we hit the negative volume of prior trades and can we take that hit, thats my expectation theres never a certainty we must go up or down tbh but for sure Im waiting for a hit personally.
790  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will it Hold? BTC Targets $40,000 on: November 06, 2023, 05:58:14 PM
It will reach $40,000 for sure and will also follow a quick drop off to $32k which will act as support this time..

40k as a peak could happen if we consider differing time frame influence.   A wave can advance as the tides retract, I believe on the widest time frame or sized bars for BTC on the chart we have resistance vs the 2022 area of trading for BTC.   Quite a few people were caught off guard by BTC even being possible to fall back into the teens, the volatility is always a surprise especially to new people but we should consider it normal in possibility.
  In that context a spike to 40k and also back to 30k would be volatile but possible, both prices would reflect differnt time frames.  No doubt near term we are bullish and overall people will always sell BTC and take profits, speculators have this nature to close a trade.
    We have traders in BTC now who also deal in corn or oil or anything, they switch and they go focus elsewhere as and when it suits them; dont assume loyalty from short term strength imo.
791  Economy / Economics / Re: Isn't Fiat the Real Ponzi on: November 06, 2023, 05:48:27 PM
Point with the gold is a good one, government can and will take actions to secure the nation in their eyes.   Gold at that time of the compulsory order was exact money and yet everyone had to give it up.  The same can occur with a forced pension buy in scheme for government failed treasury market imo.   It seems very harsh and over the top but comparatively vs the extremes of a failed nation and by implication the failure of US forces and even NATO strength the implications are massive.
792  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: November 06, 2023, 05:38:40 PM
Quote
bitcoin doesn't really look like it's going to drop below $32,000 again until the next bull run comes in properly,

I agree but falling off that road to higher is where the bets pay off because its unexpected.    Ideally for the safest bet we need confirmation of a bullish path higher, normally the market checks back on a lower price before pushing higher.  A pullback is normal, so normal people are waiting for it currently imo and before month end I want to see that occur first.
  
Im stacking up wheel spins like Jenga blocks, waiting for a fall to cash them in.  Just for fun mostly, the pay improves slightly and I like being right about the often apparent random moves in BTC.

   Can we clear 35k now thats really the higher target and few thought that, I failed to guess that high I thought slower but its a break of resistance so there we are.  37222 ceiling target possible, closing lows of last years spring before we began trawling the depths.   Normally 1 week left I expect profit taking

This is what transpired.   Lucky my sub 35k bet was in the money still
793  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? on: November 06, 2023, 12:06:02 AM
Its the voting system of the union and it makes sense in that context but purely divided by the population nothing else then its obviously a deviation from pure democracy by number of votes alone.  Its there for a reason though and probably stays despite the confusion on every election its been that way for a long time.  Alter that system and probably it requires a reevaluation of the union similarly which many wont want to open that particular box and suffer endless arguments and disruption, I dont see it happening.
  Considering his starting point, the large percentage for Kennedy is quite surprising maybe he can build from there.
794  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Is the cash-out feature only available in sports bets? on: November 05, 2023, 11:45:05 PM
There's live cash out also but its hard to juggle and manage.  I believe the cash out only exists as the bet can be resold to others who wish to bet the other direction from how you are selling it.  As an intermediary the casino has a profit in enabling that revenue and cash out facility so that's why, other types of betting or low volume bets might not be so easily matched up and settled for both parties.
   Cash out is useful to me, sometimes I dont have time to wait and see a game result and I'd rather know I won at that moment.   I'm giving away some of my profits basically, its a convenience but its nice as an option.
795  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: What's the best advice or should I just let him on: November 05, 2023, 11:19:43 PM
You cant teach an old dog new tricks, it would be more dangerous if he were drinking too much then something fairly harmless.   I dont think he is in much danger and not from anything he has not seen and experience prior so maybe he could teach you something rather then vice versa.  I would help out someone old with only the things they hadnt seen before, maybe certain tech aspects and security perhaps.
796  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Will you gamble till old age or not on: November 05, 2023, 03:41:53 PM
There are some pensioner age gamblers who stream games on Twitch btw.   Gambling is very popular with age and is a good thing as a game to keep your brain active like any other game such as crossword puzzles etc.   Also sports betting is very popular and many types of fairly casual gambling is think is quite ok at any age Smiley
797  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buying at 35k? on: November 04, 2023, 11:59:15 PM
Too risky for me short term, we are above the weekly average and so bullish is fair conclusion now but further out I fear we must reverse some.
   On a wider consideration its never wrong to buy and hold some but many people want to buy and immediately feel they have done the right thing with price increasing perhaps considerably.   Theres no recent negative interpretation to price movements that I can easily see, its resolved upwards though we are holding in this area for nearly 2 weeks now.
798  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: do you lose on slots? on: November 04, 2023, 11:05:20 PM
Just reduce amounts on losing streaks is the simpliest easiest strategy to avoid the budget becoming a problem.  Losing games alone is not such a large negative, its the money management and failure to allocate or seperate cash from money you need that really matters.  Half and half again do not increase on lost games imo.
799  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 04, 2023, 08:01:10 PM
People have the same attitude towards cheaper labor, immigration or just non union work.  Labor cost is an expense to every business like anything else, raise the fuel cost too much and a business can fail or be restricted in its ability to proceed and develop.  Same thing with labor, its not quite the negative that might be assumed as more freely available labor market via AI efficiencies and capabilities coming online will actually enable a greater range of business to proceed.
   How many people here believe AI can do everything a human can do with perfect ability to replace that person.  Even years from now people will be far better at things computers have no comprehension of, we're discussing primarily and firstly the most repetitive boring jobs and of course do repetitive simple tasks far more easily then humans.  It is a positive to redirect humans towards better uses, premium photography for example will always be a thing  just like record players replaced some street bands a hundred or so years ago we now have both still.
800  Economy / Economics / Re: AI will put an end to work, says Elon Musk on: November 03, 2023, 11:46:03 PM
Elon is trying to extrapolate the extremes of what is possible.   He no doubt wants to reside on Mars one day within his own lifetime, in theory it might be possible just I dont think before he passes away from the fatal limitations that humanity has.
    AI he is probably not especially incorrect either that it could be a vital part of what moves us towards a substantially different economy type, just like modern service industry is very different from our common agrarian origins to society.   A large part of his scenario is something close to free power, fusion nuclear power I think.
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