The trend line on your last picture is wrong..
this is not the point of this post. What is the point? You characterise the last few years as a bubble. If you drew it correctly we are at trend.  |
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Yes.
Still this is the first chance for bears to fight back (short term top at 260). If we move up again in the next two days they are in a world of pain!
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The trend line on your last picture is wrong..
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"Short interest". Again, this is not short interest. And again, shorts are not that incredibly high considering the decrease in their USD value and especially considering the quantity of longs.
LOL never said double digits were gonna come overnight or without prolonged bulltraps.
I know you are trying to sound clever. But you really aren't. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortinterest.asp |
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I don't know why you keep talking about the number of shorts. 18k is not high at all considering that their USD value is a lot less what it was when price was at $500 or $400.
Longs are still A LOT higher, as always...
And technically what you are referring to is not "short interest" but quantity of BTC swaps. The short interest is how much you are getting if you are lending your coins (0.005% or something, haven't checked that in a while), and that is not an bullish/bearish indicator whatsoever.
Because the number of short swaps are heavily correlated with the price movements. Please look back through the finex all time chart and find higher short interest than the last three months, thanks. I know you have to be pedantic because you have been wrong about double digit coins now for 61% and counting from the low. |
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Inca, how about an updated rich list?
I am a little short on time but this is lifted from bitcoinrichlist.com and seems up to date in terms of block count. Note the complete lack of selling in the recent 'crash'. Business as usual from the largest commodity holders.  A quick update on the price is needed. We continue to rise upwards in a stairstep fashion.  But though shorts fell back with the move upwards from 160 to 259 (61% up from low) they are still at 18000. Looking back on the historical one year chart there is still a LONG way for them to drop back to a typical level.  Cue lots of gnashing of teeth from bears. I suspect we are in for a typical bull market trend change. We may spike upwards towards 280-300 then flounder for a time before continuing back upwards over the next few months. When the short interest falls back to 10k we can say perhaps the price may reach a temporary plateau. Also of note the long interest remains low at 16 million dollars and lending rates on BTC and USD are now low. This suggests to me that at least some of this price rise is new buying. |
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It's the poorest moderation to activity ratio I have ever seen on a forum that is serious about a topic.
Quite. Anyway nice overhead punch while I slept. Retest soon I am sure as the stair step rises continue. Shorts still at 18,000. Keep shorting guys! |
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Now would be a nice time for a loaded smiley.
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Bears are scared stiff.  It's in point to break the ATH! what should we do?!  Trolls - silent since the 75 million invested by US bankers into coinbase. Most prolific troll bear on here now has no idea which way the market will move.. Sounds like a trend change approacheth.. Quoted for posterity. Although there are already a few houndreds failed trend reversal predictions from you... If you mean two (680 and 274) then sure .. Keep selling  |
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Bears are scared stiff. It's in point to break the ATH! what should we do?! Trolls - silent since the 75 million invested by US bankers into coinbase. Most prolific troll bear on here now has no idea which way the market will move.. Sounds like a trend change approacheth.. |
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Guys why are you shouting MOON when we have moved few dollars up?  i am missing the days when MOON and CCMF actually meant something  I get the distinct impression that those days are over. The proliferation of financial instruments that allow for hedging and short positions have come a long way since the days of ZhouTong. I expect hope for a brutally incessant march upwards with many retracements and opportunities along the way. Pack your bags gentlemen!  There are less than 3 million dollars in btc for sale stopping the price from doubling on the ask side on finex.. |
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Possible, not at all certain that we won't have a leg up, but no longer know what drives this market => can't come up with clean causal relationships => admit to being confused.
Quoted for posterity. |
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This forum is indeed very pathetic. I assume not many of you here are seasoned traders. This is purely an amateur hour, I left this shyte coin in the dust months ago and went back to equities and forex. This instrument will continue in a downtrend, this behavior is all too familiar. Getting coins at sub 200 was a nice move yes... whoever locked it in god job. At this point I would suggest only profiting from temporary volatility be it in upward or downward momentum. It will never reach its previous point of 800+...As of now it seems to be still moving in a strong downward momentum. It might break out to lets see 260 level then possibly 280 before another drop. People who bought their coins at 400 or 600.. and were 'hodling'. Well, I suggest you get better jobs my friends.
I agree this forum is horrible if you want to get information about the market. You will only get perma Bulls talking to you since January 2014... Yes this might hit 260 or maybe even 280 with a spike to 300 before the pattern we have for over 1 year repeats. This market it really easy to trade because there're so many emotional noobs trading it. And yes I was one of the noobs here back even before the China pump in December 2013. But I have learned a lot since then about markets. Yes this thread is awash with permabulls... constant permabull that is all you see here... some of them have sockpuppet after sockpuppet, and seem to spend all day everyday on here just posting and posting.... cannot see the forest for the trees there are so many... Yes the irony of how inverted his post actually is, is not lost on me. There will be some angry bitter bears soon. |
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Let's take a look at the buy/sell walls on Bitstamp:  We can see the number of bitcoins we could sell and where it would get the price. We can also see the number of dollars we could spend on buying up all the bitcoins for sale and where it would get the price. However, what we don't see directly from these walls are the real dollars and bitcoins sitting on the exchange. Is there any web service out there that would calculate these numbers for me? From the first glance it seems to me that there is "more money" wishing to buy into bitcoin right now than there is on the opposite side. Can we deduce any valuable trading information from that? The orderbook that is visible, is visible. The rest is guess work. We can see from the orderbooks it is going to take some monumental selling to breach 200 now. Last night for fun I had a look on bitcoin wisdom. If you click on the orderbook you can enter fictional amounts of BTC or USD and see how much is required to buy the price up to a certain point on the orderbook. Under 4 million dollars doubled the price on finex (460$). We still have >18000 shorts. I think we move up a way for bit over the coming weeks. |
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What's up with volume on exchanges? They look waay lower to me..btw i think we could break 250 easily by monday, weak hads are gone.
No doubt we will (before my salary enters my bank account!) |
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Most of the trolls have disappeared, that's why Bullish! Although to be honest they probably don't have many dollars to rub together |
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This part is bullshit: "Under this backdrop, it is easy to see why the USD is surging as the US has stopped QE and indicated a rate hike at some point this year. The US is perceived to have the strongest economy in the world." Everyone seems to forget the Fed just finished around $4T in QE over 6 years. CB's simply do a Round Robin when it comes to QE which creates am artificial "stability" in cross rate, when in fact, they're all devaluing at different intervals. This is why they are all so worried about Bitcoin and rightfully so. Most of the QE money has still not begun to circulate. Someone knows what they are doing. I think this QE is just money printing to generate inflation and devalue currencies until total credit market debt begins to explode again. Must stave off a deflationary credit collapse by devaluing currency and maintaining asset prices until wages can support the next borrowing frenzy. The best thing is that the government debt everyone is concerned about can simply be cancelled leaving governments better off in terms of debt to GDP ratios. The only question is how do they stop without a giant crash? I think they simply say they have stopped at some point in the future but continue printing in stealth. At some point we will get significant inflation because this expansion of narrow money is real - and forms the base for the next credit boom. Banana economics! Bitcoin just needs a spark of interest and there could be a flight into it like nothing ever seen before. This seems likely once the inflation rate has cut in half again after 2016. If any central bank murmurs about holding bitcoin in their reserves things will get real awfully quickly. |
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Is that you panic buying little lambie? Actually he has likely missed the bottom. More amusing he has probably been a useful idiot for some wall street sharks scooping up thousands of coins on the cheap and never got paid himself despite posting >5000 posts and wasting 9 months on here..  Beanie babies!! |
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kwukduck sounds similar to exo. doomer loser. |
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It will could increase adoption with:
1. retirement accounts
2. people who don't want the counterparty risk of using an exchange based out of slovakia/hong kong/japan.
3. people not technically-savvy enough to store bitcoin
However, this isn't so much adoption except the few who may elect to take delivery of their stake. Then it's back to #3. Most will just trade it as any other speculative exchange asset which isn't adoption. They don't have to know anything about it and don't have to use it. Can I send a payment from the ETF using a "withdrawal button"? Doubt it. Most people aren't going to put their 401k's into it either. Some may, but you aren't going to see the masses do it just because Bitcoin... People aren't going to gamble with their retirement. Plain and simple. The first time they see their 401k drop by 50% they will shit a brick and people will leave in droves. I do agree that the twinkledicks will eventually buy some coins when the existing ETF funds are all bought up and more demand comes in but it could be days or it could be years before it's all bought up. No one knows. My guess is there will be a large spike of speculative demand upon announcement which will just be a rush until the hype dies off. It won't change anything about the trend and most people buying into the ETF aren't going to buy it unless we have seen a bottom. So it won't magically cause a reversal by itself. If the bear market happens to end around the same time as it goes live, then it's because the Bear market was due to end and it's all a coincidence. You miss the point. People hold gold in an etf. Not because they like the idea of holding a shiny metal as a paper holding, but because of the properties the commodity gold should display in theory. They will hold bitcoin as a speculative commodity for the same reasons. And the bitcoin market is tiny. A drop in the ocean compared to the trillions in capital which is currently excluded from investing. The ECB is about to print 1 trillion euros. Ho ho. |
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