In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon. So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish. It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome...  Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer? Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range? Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like: "Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... " Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon" TM. Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon. This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long. PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now. While the 12h PSAR started high, it developed towards a bullish flip, which may happen today or tomorrow. Support held while not entering oversold on daily and existed oversold on 12h. Several major alts also look like they are forming bullish double bottoms in MACD, with daily MACD bullish crossings possible soon. And coinsight is back, nice...  |
|
|
|
In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon. So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish. It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer? Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range? Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like: "Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... " Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon" TM. Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon. This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long. PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now. |
|
|
|
In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon. So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish. It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... |
|
|
|
Daily MACD still negative, but close to crossing into positive, so a pump can be expected. If this will be a breakout or a fakeout, remains to be seen. It would be useful to see the evolution of the bid side / ask side on exchanges, but coinsight.org has been down for some time, and I don't know where else to look for this piece of information...  |
|
|
|
Bitfinex price right now... 6666.6666$... some devil worshiper trader... please stop this!  |
|
|
|
18% of US students is nothing to worry about, there's still room for speculative price rise. If it were 18% of US grandmothers, then I'd say dump it asap!  |
|
|
|
The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.
I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish... We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce. But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$.  What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks? You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too? How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly? Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you? By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space. So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic. In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin. I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin? In the mean time, weekly PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitstamp and GDAX, so it's likely the shit will hit the fan, the bearish scenario is now my favorite. The market stayed very oversold in the 24h time frame, I was expecting some bounce, but it didn't happen, so I deem the market as very weak. The market has recovered to some extent, and now is experiencing a (hopefully minor) correction. If this will play similar to July 9 - 15, then we'll get a new rally, possibly reaching ~10 k$. Watch the 12h time frame, for exiting oversold.  |
|
|
|
The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.
I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish... We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce. But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$. What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks? You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too? How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly? Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you? By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space. So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic. In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin. I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin? In the mean time, weekly PSAR flipped to bearish on Bitstamp and GDAX, so it's likely the shit will hit the fan, the bearish scenario is now my favorite. The market stayed very oversold in the 24h time frame, I was expecting some bounce, but it didn't happen, so I deem the market as very weak. |
|
|
|
Latest unofficial update, from a meeting of lawyers with Kobayashi: https://www.reddit.com/r/mtgoxinsolvency/comments/96x3vv/kobayshis_feedback_on_mt_gox_legals_cr_plan/For those too lazy to click on the link, copied most of it here: Atmosphere was good. 1/ Fiat claims honoured as under Bankruptcy - no comments. 2/ Sekido made it clear we don’t want any more sales. Kobayashi didn’t say yes, but we didn’t receive any specific objection. Didn’t find anything in his reaction that would cause me to believe he was planning more sales. 3/ No Benefit to shareholders: Tibanne may have claim admitted. Kobayashi has counter claim against Tibanne under their bankruptcy of Tibanne. [I believe our claim against Tib is bigger than theirs against MtG] Don’t know if it’s accepted. Might be able to off set claims or money will go and come back. Either way Kob is aware of the issue and planning a solution in creditors best interests. 4/ Alt coins: Trustee’s reaction is that it’s not easy to seperate keys for altcoins. It’s challenging. If we [Mt Gox Legal] can present a safe way for the trustee, it may advance the situation. But it’s not easy for the trustee to conduct this because of technical security. After the first distribution, it might be easier for him to sell the key. Kobayashi understands alt coins and their value. His question to us: How to auction the key? 5/ Mixed claims - no issue 6/ Timetable for distribution, Kob agrees to timeliness is important. 7/ Distribution Channel. There was a clear response from trustee: distribution to private wallets is very difficult. so they are very reluctant. Distribution for BTC is it’s necessary to have an exchange. We emphasised more exchange options creditors have, the better for creditors, but there must be a limitation, cos trustee cannot accept unreliable exchanges. They need to execute some contracts, so exchange needs to have solidity to be a good for counterparty. Also, the approval of the court is required. Kob is Open to options, not fixed their minds on which exchange. They want to understand the need of the creditors, depending on the need of creditors around the world. That’s the basic requirement of the law. Need to cover all over the world where creditors exist. - Appreciate our input on this. Kob’s position on this is very strong on this. Kob cannot take responsibility, once distribution is completed there is no money for compensation. Clear need to have limited liablilty for trustee. Once creditor choose exchange, and assets are transfered. After that, if there is a problem trustee is not liable. Possibility that there are creditors who cannot make an account on an exchange for geographic reasons. - In that scenario the suggested option is to convert claim to cash and send via bank. That kind of option may be necessary. In this case the trustee will need to sell some btc in order to distribute cash. Trustee will need proof of id. Distribution of cash: not clear, but Sek didn’t hear anything negative for cash distribution to either bank or exchange. - reaction not negative. Open to offering distribution to both bank or exchange. 8/ The response to this point is on the Mt Gox Legal forum. For all creditor's interest I'm not going to share it publicly here. 9/ Trading records. Kobs reaction was: Not easy. It may require costs. We [Mt Gox Legal] should make a more specific request. Issue of equal treatment may come up, if limited number of creditors need to this, Kob can use that as an excuse to avoid it. - Need to show how much demand there is for this. [I raised the counter point that this information is an asset of value to creditors and should be considered as such. We need to go back with a sense of how many creditors need this (a proportion, or which jurisdictions) and how the information could be accessed via the online filing system) - it may be that creditors who want/need this may have to pay for it individually.] Questions from Kob: Geographic variation of memebers of MtG Legal, to consider which exchange is appropriate or not? He wants to have local information which exchange works. Creditors from local area will have infomation. We requested face to face meeting after creditors meeting in september. Waiting for response. AOB/ claims open by the end of this month as per memo on website. |
|
|
|
...
What do you consider to be strong buys in the next two weeks? You would want to see the BTC price go above a certain amount, such as $7k or higher? and perhaps some volume, too? How much of an increase in trade volume, and how do you measure trade volume exactly? Would you use a few of the main exchanges, CMC or you have some other way of assessing BTC trade volume that is comfortable for you?
By the way, even though you tend to provide some decent assessments, Tzupy, I do take any of these kinds of TA assessments with a BIG ass grain of salt while bitcoin continues to have decent unexpected upside potential merely from its unique asset class and ongoing scurve adoption dynamics... and a current seemingly ongoing dynamic remains a bit of the seeming bleeding of alt coin money back into the BTC space. So alt coins seem to be suffering a quite a bit more than bitcoin and may be leading, to some extent (to the extent that they can lead) this ongoing BTC price dynamic. In that regard, there remains uncertainty about whether some alt coin investors are just getting completely out of the space and moving to fiat or whether some of them might prefer to sink some of all of their previous alt coin money into bitcoin. I am not sure how to really measure all of those kinds of factors in a predictive way which is just attempting to say that the bitcoin space is unique in terms of how to apply TA.. and really maybe just providing a bit more weight to upside potential could sufficiently offset some TA principles in order to make them more accurate when attempting to apply them to bitcoin?
By strong buys I understand buys that would break the 8,500$ resistance, followed by a minor ABC correction, and to keep the price action away from the lower BB on the weekly chart. So far, what I have seen favors a bearish scenario, the correction from 8,500$ was stronger than I expected (I had bullish expectations), and we are close to the lower BB. Still, since we flipped the 12h PSAR to bullish and seems we are emerging from the 24h very oversold state, I expect to have found a local bottom (at least for a while). That some altcoins do much worse than bitcoin does not make bitcoin look more bullish, sorry. |
|
|
|
The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.
I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish... We touched 6,000$ but didn't yet flip the weekly PSAR to bearish. Since the market is very oversold in 24h frame, we may see a bounce. But without strong buys during the next 2 weeks, IMO the weekly PSAR will flip to bearish and we'll eventually bottom around 3,000$. |
|
|
|
well this sucks
I think I'll go hit my thumb repeatedly with a hammer for a while.
Yeah, it sucks... Still, I don't think you should, quoting "hit my thumb repeatedly with a hammer for a while", this won't help with the price action.  |
|
|
|
The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.
I wasn't bearish enough... No weak pump yet... If this will go below 6,000$, it will trigger weekly PSAR switch to bearish... |
|
|
|
Fuckin' ETH should go to zero alone, instead it brings other cryptos down too... |
|
|
|
|
The correction from 8,500$ pushed the 6h and 12h MACD well into negative, so for a strong pump I would expect to see a double bottom first.
By consequence, I am guessing a weak pump will follow the next days, followed by a minor correction, and then the real pump.
|
|
|
|
|
In a plausible bullish scenario, still the 15k$ zone is going to be major resistance, so I'll say until year's end not higher than 14,995$.
|
|
|
|
Hah! Right when I decided to cash out some BTC to fiat, the trading gods decided to pump it. Lmao. But still think another dump is just around the corner tho. The trading gods are leveling us. Countdown! Dump in three... two...  No trading gods, just risk-averse traders. They pumped on the 12h MACD crossing, and in the process also crossed the 24h MACD into positive (barely). While 3d and 1w MACD are still negative, there's a good chance the weekly PSAR will flip to bullish soon. Weekly PSAR flipped to bullish today. But it's into overbought now, so I expect a minor ABC correction, buy when it will exit from oversold in the 6h time frame. |
|
|
|
From the MtGox site: http://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20180719_announcement.pdfSome creditors have inquired about the timing for filing proofs of rehabilitation claim in the Civil Rehabilitation Proceedings of MtGox Co., Ltd. We are currently using our best efforts to build the system for filing proofs of rehabilitation claim. We plan to release such system this August. Please kindly wait for a while. Thank you for your kind understanding. |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
