Many thanks for the cheap coins. Tzupy, where is the final leg of the sell off? I hoped to get some even cheaper. If this was an ABC, then it's probably completed the C, and now it's building a triangle. Support could be tested over the next days, so a bit cheaper than right now is possible. |
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OKCoin is the most bullish on this pump, so I'll watch them.
Pump failed... Hmm, will this lead to another leg down? Or at least test support? |
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OKCoin is the most bullish on this pump, so I'll watch them.
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This pump and dump is an exact pattern from the last two years, every six months like clockwork bitcoin spikes and then tanks. Forget the Gox-inflated, fake bubble. Bitcoin is probably the most remarkably consistent and predictable investment you can make. Price will find a floor, price will be volatile, then go sideways, then spike. You have a window of opportunity now to prepare for the next run. If you got burned this time, take a deep breath and realize that your mistake was that you forgot you were going to just buy and HODL to take your profits  FTFY. |
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Tzupy was right. I couldn't imagine this low. So bottom reached or more down?
Can't be sure. But even if this was the bottom, for about a week we could go sideways, building a triangle that would break, probably up, so no need to rush buying. |
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It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it.
If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges.
It looks like there is a sea behind that mountain or there isn't. Great prediction, tzupy. As always. The correction started earlier than I expected, because of bad news from China, but so far was only 21% to 24%, instead of my expected 30%. However this looks bottomish, so this may have been all.  BTW, you posted that you went leveraged long a lot higher than the current bottom, how did that go? |
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is crypto done??   In China it looks like that. On previous corrections it took several gradual corrections to break critical support, now it's like hot knife through butter... But didnt you say a dump to 660$ was about to happen these days? If so its expected market behaviour Not so sudden, this is abnormal. |
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is crypto done?? In China it looks like that. On previous corrections it took several gradual corrections to break critical support, now it's like hot knife through butter... |
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Not to be a pessimist, but the chart pattern looks eerily similar to the one that formed back in June/July, just before Bitfinex got hacked.
Wouldn't be surprised if some similar shenanigans were being attempted with Stamp or some other major exchange right now, or over the next few weeks...
(again, not trying to be a downer... but surprises do happen, hope I'm wrong though)
Except that on the 30th June a small pump pushed the price up a bit, while the equivalent pump of today failed. I think that you guys are talking about July/August (and not June/July) because the Bitfinex "hack" happened on August 2. right? I am talking about June 30th to July 8th, when critical support was tested. We might test the current critical support later today and probably bounce from it. When this little pump failed, a number of traders understood the bearish implications and dumped, so the equivalent of the period mentioned above may get truncated. That didn't take long, actually OKCoin broke it.  And Huobi too. Is there some new bearish news we don't know about? |
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It's dumping pretty hard...
Well, there was another reason for dumping, besides the pump failure, look at the chikun... |
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Not to be a pessimist, but the chart pattern looks eerily similar to the one that formed back in June/July, just before Bitfinex got hacked.
Wouldn't be surprised if some similar shenanigans were being attempted with Stamp or some other major exchange right now, or over the next few weeks...
(again, not trying to be a downer... but surprises do happen, hope I'm wrong though)
Except that on the 30th June a small pump pushed the price up a bit, while the equivalent pump of today failed. I think that you guys are talking about July/August (and not June/July) because the Bitfinex "hack" happened on August 2. right? I am talking about June 30th to July 8th, when critical support was tested. We might test the current critical support later today and probably bounce from it. When this little pump failed, a number of traders understood the bearish implications and dumped, so the equivalent of the period mentioned above may get truncated. |
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Not to be a pessimist, but the chart pattern looks eerily similar to the one that formed back in June/July, just before Bitfinex got hacked.
Wouldn't be surprised if some similar shenanigans were being attempted with Stamp or some other major exchange right now, or over the next few weeks...
(again, not trying to be a downer... but surprises do happen, hope I'm wrong though)
Except that on the 30th June a small pump pushed the price up a bit, while the equivalent pump of today failed. |
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Next 24 hrs are critical  my triangle says it will tighten towards $910 for Jan 13. itll spend the remainder of the week with people making positions, and then itll pump or dump on the weekend A pump will be possible tomorrow morning, but I'm not happy about the amplitudes seen so far. I will wake up very early anyway to try to catch it. |
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In January 2013, we had four weeks of relative stability around $800. And then in Feb 2013 BTC plunged to $400.
I think you mean 2014, not 2013. In Feb 2013 reaching 400$ was a permabull's dream. |
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The chikun broke up, let's see how much this influences bitcoin.
What does this mean? Up? Usually it does, don't know if it will apply now. If bitcoin would follow the chikun, it would reach 7300 CNY, but bitcoin didn't give a shit. |
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The chikun broke up, let's see how much this influences bitcoin.
What does this mean? Up? Usually it does, don't know if it will apply now. |
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The chikun broke up, let's see how much this influences bitcoin.
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Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY. China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.  I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long. You still think we have further to go down? I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking. Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping. At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated. If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down. Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way... The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon. Support was broken just after I went to sleep, but so far it bounced, we'll see what happens during the next hours, will the drop continue or not? There is another possibility, that we already completed A and now we are actually during the B... The initial dump was so fast that it compressed the waves and made counting difficult. It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it. If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges. |
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Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY. China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream. I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long. You still think we have further to go down? I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking. Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping. At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated. If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down. Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way... The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon. Support was broken just after I went to sleep, but so far it bounced, we'll see what happens during the next hours, will the drop continue or not? There is another possibility, that we already completed A and now we are actually during the B... The initial dump was so fast that it compressed the waves and made counting difficult. |
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Perhaps everyone here thinks that we are currently replaying October 2013 and haven't even made it to November yet?
Pretty much this^. Not everyone. I think we could be replaying August 17th 2012. Yeah, but you're bearish more often than not. I remain convinced that Bitcoin is a long-term successful moonshot. I remain serene in the face of crashes. Is now analogous to Oct 2013? Frankly, I have no idea. But it could be. More importantly, some time in the not-too distant future will be analogous to Oct 2013. In the meantime, I await -- seated comfortably at my pick-a-nick table -- awaiting mah fine and glorious repast. If you would think deeper about what I said, you would understand how bullish I am long term. Hint: what price was in August 2012 and what price in October 2013? |
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