All done. Just fixing a potential data-corruption issue. I just used "emergency" to differentiate it from planned maintenance. And wasn't sure if falling back onto our slave machines would end up resulting in down-time or not, but everything seems to have gone perfectly.

Yeah, likely. There's nothing like fractional reserving going on, so people will always be free to withdraw their money when ever they want. And as investors do divest it does makes it more attractive for existing and new investors (in terms of both EV and stake) and should reach a healthy equilibrium. Right now our biggest win was something like only 1.6 BTC on a 1% house edge (which could be supported by a bankroll less than half the size), so I'd like to judge my success based on more gambler-focused metrics, rather than my ability collect superfluous liability.

The max interval is unfair on investors, as it would mean they would be put in a position where they risk more than a fully kelly. And if apps want to guarantee some profit, they can already just not accept huge bets. And the min interval makes sense in many case, except when apps want to make balanced bets which don't pose risk to investors (but have a house edge) and suddenly need to pay a comission.

But you're right about the idea of investors piling up, decreasing the EV. It was actually an intentional function of the design. If investors invest, and it's not utilized by having gamblers bet bigger it means the EV drops. So hopefully it's pretty self-regulating.


Thanks, it's appreciated it. Sorry I sometimes seem a bit grumpy about it, it's not that I'm not 100% satisfied with it or not considering change it, but it's on a daily basis I have to field complaints from both app developers and investors about not making enough (when in reality, it's just a trade off of who gets what money ).

I'm sympathetic to investors as some of them have lost money (so I'm giving them my commissions for the time being), but I'll tend to side more heavily with apps. Many of them have spent thousands of dollars in development and marketing, and hundreds of hours of time, etc. And without them, investors could have 100% of the profit shares, but still make 0.

Investors on the other hand, have a pretty passive job (although subject themselves to a huge amount of counter-party risk), so as long they're getting a decent return I think that's fair

And those 99% bets pretty much contribute no risk to the investors too. =) Investors are rewarded proportional to the risk they take.


While that works in most cases, there's some specific cases where it can't



It also means the 400 BTC bankroll wasn't needed it that case, but if a 4 BTC attempted win was made the investors would get the entire house edge. So it's a self regulating system in many regards.


Right now, 100% of my commissions are being diverted to investors, so I'm literally making zero money (for the time being) and still have investors wanting to move the profit share more in their favor, and apps wanting to move it in their favor (they're the ones paying for advertising, rake backs, affiliates and development).

But the unfortunate reality is, there's only a finite amount of money in the system and it's just a set of uneasy trade-offs.

Thanks for the useful feedback. We've added two things to help with that:

/ignore <username>

(and you can /unignore)


and in the settings (bottom left) you can filter out all bot messages.



Hope that makes your experience more enjoyable!

There's a little competition organized by a player to make chart-art if people want to try claim the 0.3 BTC up for grabs:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1152981

Yeah, there's a bug and bounty for that. Some guy is working on it, trying to claim it

I guess just make a chart, take a screenshot which shows your name and post it here =)

While the account "bustabit" isn't an official account of bustabit, I have agreed to sponsor the competition and will pay the 0.3 BTC in prizes =)


Good luck to all!

I actually just saw a well-done video tutorial on setting up Dan's untitled-dice script:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqOF9C7IwFc&feature=youtu.be


it shouldn't be too hard to setup, and unlike some of the other scripts is free from exploits and backdoors. However, you're probably going to need to do something rather unique in order to attract people.

Wow, I think that 8 BTC makes for the best bonus prize I've seen yet.

It's a lot more nuanced than that. Investors are rewarded (with EV) proportional the amount of risk they take. So in cases of a full-kelly bet the investors have 100% the profits (with no commissions of any kind charged), and a bet with no risk they would have no rewards. And for everything in between they get everything in between. There's an active discussion on the MP thread if you want to join in =)

 I'll try generate a chart now this time properly =)

Yeah, it's a bit of a roller-coaster. It hit a low of under -1, but by the time I woke up it was +5,  then I decided to give my commissions to investors yet it kept dropping to +3 BTC, but at the time of writing your post it was +12, and it's currently +14.6

It's going to be a long and bumpy ride, and if you want to keep your sanity you'll probably find weekly checkins are a lot more stable

 

Doing some back of the envelope calculations based on the last few days the average returns should have been a bit over 0.3% a day. But in actuality investors had their asses handed to them.

The better way to think of it, is why do we accept investors in the first place? And that's because there's a huge amount of variance and risk involved. Actually even since I started diverting 100% of my commissions to the investors, they've still lost another 3 BTC. Unless you have a strong stomach and have diversified heavily, it's probably not a good idea to invest. In fact, as some of the address I've signed have shown, I could easily bankroll the site 100%, but make an educated decision not to. (And I have one investing advantage over you guys, I have no counter-party risk)

I'm tempted to rename the "Investor Tab" to  "+EV gambling". I don't mean to be too negative, but these are real risks people should be aware of. But for the people who do understand the risks and want to come along from the ride, welcome! Thanks for helping our max-profit =)

And assuming we continue to have volume, and don't have any unknown exploits .. eventually the law of large numbers will do it's thing =)

hehe, or if a mega-whale investor diluted everyone I'd be with out commissions for a while too

Ok, how about until the investor profit are breaking new highs, i'll keep donate all my commissions to them =)

Until all individual investors are at a net profit

Special investor promotion: until all investors are back in the green, 100% of MPs profit split is going direct to investors. Hopefully this time will give me a chance to evaluate the fairest way going forward.

This will not affect apps, their profit will remain identical (although their investors might be slightly less grumpy)

haha, will fix that today. The view was written a little optimistically: