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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx on: July 27, 2013, 06:44:34 AM
Gap between CampBX and Gox has been narrowing all day.  Currently only $1 difference.  Other exchanges not following that trend, however.  Anybody care to post another gap graph?  I don't know where you are getting them.
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 27, 2013, 06:41:53 AM
i think those sell walls are from people who bought cheaper at other exchanges to profit on gox. They wont sell this cheap because they will lose money and they will have money at gox which is even worse. I wouldn't do that and i hope they are smart enough to don't do this either.
Maybe people saw the gap thread where other people and I were showing the huge arbitrage situation and are capitalizing on it?  Spread between CampBX and Gox has been getting smaller all day.
23  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 27, 2013, 02:50:09 AM
Someone finally sold through the 96.0 wall.
24  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buying pressure stacks up. on: July 25, 2013, 02:24:12 PM
There is actually a chart for this that I like to check frequently on Blockchained.com

25  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx on: July 25, 2013, 02:09:07 PM
Yeah 10% spread between CampBX and Gox right now.  Madness.
26  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx on: July 23, 2013, 03:03:24 PM
I thought the wire transfers were flowing again.  People were posting proof of transactions into their bank accounts.  To answer your question I would be willing to wait a month for a 6% profit to get bank into my bank account.  What if I could rinse and repeat 12 times a year?  Would that be a 72% profit for the year?  What other old-ass traditional stock, commodity, ETF, bond, forex trading, etc can net you that??
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx on: July 23, 2013, 02:50:26 PM
I've been tossing and turning all night thinking about this.  Let me do some math out loud here.

I can deposit $10,000 to my Dwolla account and then deposit that to my CampBX account = $9999.75
Using current numbers I can buy $9999.75 worth of Bitcoin $89.53 = 111.69 BTC - 0.55% fee = 111.08 BTC
Transfer to MtGox = 111.07 BTC
Sell on MtGox for $95.99 = $10,661.61  which is a $661.61 profit
Then I can wire transfer out for a $25 fee, right?  Leaving me with $10.636.61 for over $600 profit?  I'm unaware of any other way to get USD out of Gox into my bank account.  Gone are the days of Dwolla transfers for 25 cents.  However, when you deal with $10k a $25 transfer fee ain't shit, right?

Why isn't arbitrage killing this huge spread?  I don't get it.  I am HORRIBLE at math, literally horrible, but is this not a sure fire way to make money?  You could even rinse and repeat, right!?
28  Economy / Speculation / Re: big fish buying. ill follow. on: July 23, 2013, 04:26:02 AM
Man I remember the good old days when Gox would do almost 100,000 BTC in a 24 hour period.
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 20, 2013, 04:08:34 AM
Why is the volume so low?  It's like the trading engine isn't working it is so low.
30  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: USB Block Erupter by ASICMINER question - used in combo with existing dual GPU' on: July 11, 2013, 08:12:48 PM
I mine with 3 GPU's and 1 Block Erupter and I have total control with cgminer.  I can mine in one instance of cgminer all on BTC, or I can mine BTC with just the USB and scrypt altcoins with the GPU's.  It's pretty sweet actually.
31  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: How long has your GPU lasted mining 24/7? on: July 11, 2013, 04:28:29 AM
Two 5830's running 100% @ 75-80C constantly since mid 2011.  A fan just burned out on one of them last week.

7970 running since it was released and no problems yet, but I consider it still pretty new.

Just dust 'em and keep them under 85C and they seem to run forever.  I have 17 years of computer experience and these AMD cards seems to be REALLY well built.  I've gone through hdd's, ssd's, and blown up PSU's while these GPU's just keep churning.
32  Economy / Speculation / Re: Holders Unite! on: July 03, 2013, 10:13:20 PM
I'm holding too.  I've been super low activity on trading for a couple months.  Waiting for $200+ to get excited again.  Based on the last two major spike we could hit $1,000 easily and it will be a real fun ride.
33  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 11:05:43 PM
Quote
will buy one of these and run it for as long as I can until it burns out

- Did you see the table:



and can you see a trend:



I can make that chart look like it's going the opposite in a big way, from when I got started mining.

Is everyone in this thread new to Bitcoin in 2013?  It looks so by the post counts.  I've been mining since the middle of 2011 which makes a big influence on my decisions these days.
34  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [37000 GH] BTC Guild - PPS/PPLNS + TxFees, Stratum, Merged Mining ASIC Tested on: June 28, 2013, 07:30:09 PM
Please don't raise the price above 1 BTC even though the market is kind of crashing right now!  Grin
35  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 07:04:35 PM
Quote from: chiropteran
According to the http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ calculator, a block erupter USB will earn 1 BTC in 3-4 months based on the current levels of difficulty inflation.  Even if you plug in that difficulty will increase 20X in the next 12 months, it still shows a (tiny) profit after 10 months of operation.

This is not great, but it is dramatically outperforming ASICMINER stock, for example.

Why is everyone insisting that it will never show a profit?  Are you assuming difficulty will increase 100X in the next year?  Are you assuming power costs that are much higher than average?

If you want to mine, what else are you going to buy?  Place a BFL order and wait 6 months?  Buy a video card with terrible performance per watt?  I understand some people feel that mining is just a bad idea and buying and holding BTC is smarter, but if you are set on mining it seems to me that these USB are the best currently available option.
I need to quote this again because you are proving my points exactly.  I totally agree with you.  We must have the same decision making process, lol.  Seriously, if you want to mine, what else would you buy?  I actually did place a BFL order, then realized I wouldn't get it until Q2 of 2014!  Got my refund on that.  FPGA is kind of a joke.  And if I bought a 300-600MH/s video card it would cost me more than this ~$100 USB ASIC miner.  What is the next step up on what is actually shipping in the ASIC world?  Isn't it like a $5000-$10000 investment to get anything else?  Sure the MH/s per $ goes up, but not many people have that kind of money to throw around.  That leaves this USB stick as the best low cost investment currently as far as I can tell.  At 2 BTC it definitely made me scratch my head, and after weeks of thinking about it I just couldn't  justify it.  But at 1 BTC or ~$100, it now makes sense.  And I don't care of it goes down to 0.5 BTC or ~$50, I might buy more if it does.
36  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 06:47:22 PM

1) You never calculate the price of BTC when considering ROI.  What if BTC goes to $200, $300, or even higher?  It seems all calculations assume ~$100 price forever and everyone's ultimate conclusion is that you could never make a profit.


With BTC losing 25% of its value just recently, you're being very optimistic.
When I got in this game BTC was about $5.  Just "recently" it hit $260.  So yes, I am being optimistic.
37  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 06:12:11 PM
According to the http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ calculator, a block erupter USB will earn 1 BTC in 3-4 months based on the current levels of difficulty inflation.  Even if you plug in that difficulty will increase 20X in the next 12 months, it still shows a (tiny) profit after 10 months of operation.

This is not great, but it is dramatically outperforming ASICMINER stock, for example.

Why is everyone insisting that it will never show a profit?  Are you assuming difficulty will increase 100X in the next year?  Are you assuming power costs that are much higher than average?

If you want to mine, what else are you going to buy?  Place a BFL order and wait 6 months?  Buy a video card with terrible performance per watt?  I understand some people feel that mining is just a bad idea and buying and holding BTC is smarter, but if you are set on mining it seems to me that these USB are the best currently available option.
The calculations I use put me in the ~128 day range.  I don't see that as a half bad investment.  I think a lot of people in this thread are get rich quick guys that think they can turn a profit day 1.  Even if the difficulty goes up in a parabolic curve, 1 year ROI isn't so bad either.
38  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 06:10:14 PM
I bought two 5830's in May of 2011.  Fire off the calculations you guys are so eager to do, I'm genuinely interested to see how it compares to today's scenarios.

Since then I only added a 7970, but I also made my ROI on that pretty quick.  Can't remember when I bought it though, some time last year.  I stopped at ~800W of total power draw because I mine in my bedroom and I can't take any more heat in here in SoCal weather.  Another benefit of buying a THREE watt USB stick that has the same power as a couple hundred watt GPU.
39  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 05:38:31 PM
1) You never calculate the price of BTC when considering ROI.
This argument is flawed and has been proved wrong multiple times. You have to compare it to buying BTC and hoarding it.

It really show how clueless the buyers are.
The way I meant that is that the "you" was everyone else.  As in everyone else is not calculating the price of BTC when considering ROI.  Even the calculators I use on the websites don't let you put in a price increase in the BTC price.
40  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Block Erupter USB Sales [New Sales Policy with New Price] on: June 28, 2013, 05:37:00 PM
Finally, if you made ROI years ago with CPUs, GPUs, and FPGAs, then ASIC USB sticks are an excellent way to spend some BTC if you choose.  They will definitely generate more BTC than a steak dinner.
I fit in this category.  I made ROI a *long* time ago with my GPU's and have made a lot of profit off of them.  With the price reduction it now doesn't make any sense to buy GPU's.  I will buy one of these and run it for as long as I can until it burns out.  If that is as long as my GPU's have been running I'm pretty sure I can make my ROI.  If something happens and the difficulty drops, like it has in the past, and the price of BTC goes up, I could make a little bit of $$.  Hell, when I bought my GPU's I thought it might be 2 years before I could make my ROI, it turned out to be a month.
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