I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".
I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.
If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :
- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?
I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).
I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :
- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step
Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.
...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ? or seppuku? Hypothetically of course. if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels. But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?) 33 is an important number. (yeah and 42 D__W) |
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I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".
I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.
If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :
- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?
I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).
I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :
- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step
Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.
...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ? or seppuku? Hypothetically of course. |
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If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.
Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop! Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down". No too clunky. Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it? I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it. How have we never thought of this before? ...death spiral ? That's great!!! Have you checked for the .com .org and .net? Or wait... do you mean that dude that posts those long long things here recently? heh heh, nawh, inspired by some LUNAtics I saw on twitter moaning about how they lost a few pennies at the hands of some Korean deewd (actually, they did it to themselves) |
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If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.
Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop! Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down". No too clunky. Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it? I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it. How have we never thought of this before? ...death spiral ? |
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It is more to do with capital requirements from what I gather, rather than over all holdings. (edit, actually perhaps there is a cap on overall holdings too, will take a closer read bit later) (either way, this is progress of sorts.....there have been barriers/regulatory ambiguity in place to allow large tradfi funds to participate fully, which are being slowly overcome and the players they are targeting with this, are YUGE. Also, some of this, is actually potentially targeting future treatment of stable coins too..) (undecided on if this is good or not tbh) |
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Also Samsung are making mining chips.
That is Samsung
of....
SA (samsung)
TOSHI (Toshiba)
NAK (Nakamichi/Nokia?)
MOTO (Motorola)
heh heh.... in jest, however, Samsung news is legit
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Something something no thread police
Oh well
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This is your daily reminder that covert organized brigades of paid professional political shills are a huge problem on the Internet.  One of the many pressing stories that remains to be told from the Snowden archive is how western intelligence agencies are attempting to manipulate and control online discourse with extreme tactics of deception and reputation-destruction. It’s time to tell a chunk of that story, complete with the relevant documents.
That is why "Gentlemen's guide to forum spies" is important. True. But in this context, amidst discussions of Russia, I hope that careless readers don’t miss the giant /s that I inadvertently omitted. I have a big stockpile of those, since many thousands of them were discarded in favour of a paid signature somewhere here. Poor, unwanted sarcasm-markers, cast off as so much trash! So sad. I just had to give them a home where they are loved. Sometimes, I am too subtle.
Though, I do no see the relevance here at this particular moment personally.
That being said.... I am personally all Russia and Ukrained out for one day.
The article that I linked is not about Russia.Edit, edit: Add highlighting, bold, and some big letters to the innermost quote at the top, to make the point less-subtle.Fair enough... I mean, yeah, intel agencies, western and otherwise, entire brigades off them, are indeed, and have been for sometime, been attempting to influence discourse on forums/social media platforms etc... including I dare say in the past this one. No argument from me there. I read into the timing of your post, that you meant in relation to the current Russia discussion , my bad. ............so what did prompt your post then ? |
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This is your daily reminder that covert organized brigades of paid professional political shills are a huge problem on the Internet. One of the many pressing stories that remains to be told from the Snowden archive is how western intelligence agencies are attempting to manipulate and control online discourse with extreme tactics of deception and reputation-destruction. It’s time to tell a chunk of that story, complete with the relevant documents.
That is why "Gentlemen's guide to forum spies" is important. True. But in this context, amidst discussions of Russia, I hope that careless readers don’t miss the giant /s that I inadvertently omitted. I have a big stockpile of those, since many thousands of them were discarded in favour of a paid signature somewhere here. Poor, unwanted sarcasm-markers, cast off as so much trash! So sad. I just had to give them a home where they are loved. Sometimes, I am too subtle. Yeah, fair play, however, given that any old trash content is posted in this thread... Yes sometimes, it does stray onto politics and current affairs, which I think is fair enough... it is after all, pretty important, and interrelated in a way to markets, economics etc etc. Far more so than a picture of lunch.... not to say I mind peoples pictures of their lunches either. I think it is about time people just accepted that this thread is a little like a town square..... I mean , it is fair enough for one to critique the substance of a persons post, it is fair game... but to pick on the topic, randomly, is a little rich. I mean, a user one day will themselves talk about Ukraine, lemons, whatever it may be, and then a day later the same person is all "how dare you talk about Ukraine/lemons here" which is a little bit lols. There ain't no forum police here, which is why I like it so much. |
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In other news, J Powells comments re "we really do not understand inflation"
mega lols
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This is your daily reminder that covert organized brigades of paid professional political shills are a huge problem on the Internet. One of the many pressing stories that remains to be told from the Snowden archive is how western intelligence agencies are attempting to manipulate and control online discourse with extreme tactics of deception and reputation-destruction. It’s time to tell a chunk of that story, complete with the relevant documents.
That is why "Gentlemen's guide to forum spies" is important. Though, I do no see the relevance here at this particular moment personally. That being said.... I am personally all Russia and Ukrained out for one day. |
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with actions of the USA and allies in the middle east. Which in fact, is undoubtedly FAR worse, over a FAR longer period of time, and with much less "standing" (ie, as far as I recall Iraq, is not on the border of USA). I mean, remember the USA kidnapping and torturing and killing people in Italian hotels? and other cases of extraordinary rendition ? Remember when the USA and allies, purposefully destroyed the water purification systems in Iraq and carried out experiments on the after effects? Remember the depleted uranium the USA dropped all over Iraq? Remember the lies after lies after lies that the USA and allies have told over decades about their actions? I mean, to be fair this thing in Ukraine, is awful, but it is literal child's play compared to what the USA and allies have done in just recent decades. Come to think of it this way, country like Iraq had it own side of the story that led the the actions and response held by USA on them, those interference made by USA amd it's Allies aren't just on human massacre or unjust acts, they tenders help against oprressors and strongholds against peace and human rights, Russia and Ukraine case is different from iraq own, Russia war is oart of the little contributions to world economy challenges aside that of the covid 19 pandemic, which all has in one way or the other affected bitcoin price into what it's today, even though that does not have much effect in determining the rise and fall of bitcoin but they are indirectly influence as well. Literally the actions of the US in the middle east were to do with oil. The bush family, all the way back to Prescott , were/are scum. Kuwait was their playground. Pure scumbags , from funding Hitler to raping the middle east for oil. (and they dragged us all down with them) |
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Rant in haste, disorganized jumble of info, but too important to ignore due to ENOTIME for proper writeup: Did Trail of Bits go full retard in a way that should demolish their reputation? Or should Tech Republic fire Ray Fernandez for gross incompetence in tech reporting? by Ray Fernandez in Security
on June 28, 2022, 3:08 PM PDT
[...]
Trail of Bits warns that nodes used by crypto miners can be easily deployed using an inexpensive cloud server. These can be used to flood the network in what is known as a Sybil attack. Sybil attacks can execute an eclipse attack, where a malicious actor seeks to isolate users by denying access to the nodes.
That “nodes used by crypto miners” is bog standard Bcash/BSV stupidity. It is not how Bitcoin works. This has been proved empirically, when hostile miners tried to flip Bitcoin in 2017. See below. *Portions highlighted in pink are abuse of jargon by someone who doesn’t understand it. (Either TOB or Fernandez/TR; pick your poison.) Sybil attacks are a well-known threat. That is the reason why Bitcoin does not use a DHT. That is the reason why suggestions of a DHT reveal a n00b. Re: Using a DHT to reduce the resource requirements of full nodes. Whenever you hear the term DHT what you should be hearing is "total farce of attack resistance failure"—
^^^ Read this long post better to understand some of the reasons for Bitcoin’s network design. But note that this post is from 2014; Core has made many improvements to Bitcoin since then, especially to Bitcoin’s attack resistance on the P2P network. Does anyone else here remember when XT supporters tried to Sybil the network with thousands of nodes “easily deployed using an inexpensive cloud server”? IIRC, various other bigblockers tried the same thing. It is boring. Bitcoin doesn’t even notice.Eclipse attacks are a different matter. They are not simply Sybil attacks; they are a special type of Sybil that corrupts your view of the network, much more sophisticated than simply running a large number of malicious nodes. Core has been following the research on eclipse attacks—sometimes advancing it themselves; and they have been implementing countermeasures. In the past few years, you may have noticed that some upgrades to Core made obvious, visible changes to your node’s connection handling; that was specifically to protect against eclipse attacks. There have also been relevant changes deep in the internals of the connection manager, where you would not notice. Altcoins based on codeforks from Bitcoin tend not to have those changes, even the very few alts with non-idiot dev teams who do sometimes cherry-pick from upstream Bitcoin Core; for example, Zcash (based on Bitcoin Core v0.12) has cherry-picked many patches, but it does not have the recent protections against eclipse attacks. (And this is why support for Bitcoin Core development is an issue that has long concerned me. They do good and necessary work to secure your money. Excepting the big flashy upgrades like Segwit and Taproot, most of their work is thankless and unrecognized.) By the by, I note that Blockstream Satellite would make for a good belt-and-suspenders protection against eclipse attacks— especially against attacks by an AS-level adversary who can control and manipulate your whole view of the Internet (one of my own worries about Bitcoin). I am not sure of exactly how to set this up the right way; but in theory, it can definitely be done: Use Blockstream Satellite, and use the ordinary Bitcoin P2P network. That way, Blockstream does not have any centralized authority over your view of the network—but to fool you about the state of the blockchain, an eclipse attacker would need simultaneously to eclipse both you and Blockstream; I think that at worst, then an attacker could cause your view of the blockchain to hardfork in a way that you should configure to set off alarm bells. Also and separately: I should make a feature suggestion that Blockstream should also broadcast some P2P node addresses, specifically to help build/bolster defenses against eclipse attacks. (Credit for the idea: death_wish.) It is not a new thought. I have been intending for years to try using Satellite for this purpose. (vapourminer, you are not the only “lazy” one.  ) Bitcoin’s support of multiple overlay networks also helps: Bitcoin natively has out-of-the-box support for Tor onions ( not merely using Tor through exits!), I2P SAM, and CJDNS. I think that an eclipse attacker would find it extremely difficult, probably infeasible to gain control over your view of the network if you gossip with peers over multiple different overlay networks. All that is only improvement. I consider eclipse attacks to be one of the most serious threats on the Bitcoin P2P network—and that shows how secure Bitcoin is: Eclipse attacks are generally quite difficult. There is no low-hanging fruit here, except when people do dumb things like running Bitcoin behind Tor exits with no other network connection. The article mentions something about that. BadExit attacks on Bitcoin have been known since 2014, and they are not a threat to Bitcoin users who don’t do that. Yawn.Additionally, software errors and bugs are also a main security concern in the blockchain. Ideally, all nodes should operate under the same latest version of the software but that is not the case. Software bugs have already caused blockchain errors in Ethereum and 21% of Bitcoin nodes are running an older version of the Bitcoin Core client, known to be vulnerable, Trail of Bits says.
People’s ability to run old nodes is a feature, not a bug. To hell with TOB’s attempt to keep people on the patch treadmill, like their native shitcoin Ethereum. In Ethereum, the development philosophy is “move fast and break things”. In Bitcoin Core, the development philosophy is DTRT (“Do The Right Thing”) and “it’s done when it’s done”. Bitcoin is fine with old, non-updated nodes. @Trail of Bits, you may offer to pay me for consulting to help you learn how Bitcoin works.For some of the items here, it is not unlikely that Fernandez is an incompetent fool whose reporting just made TOB look bad. For others, TOB clearly fails—such as with that complaint about people running old versions of Core. I would need to look up the TOB report itself, but who has time for such a thing? The import of this backwards compatibility is driven home by experience with blockchains where a centralized dev team can effectually force upgrades; there are even some chains where you can lose your money if you fail to upgrade timely. In Bitcoin, your money is safe even if you don’t upgrade to the latest Core; and the Bitcoin Core developers deliberately make sure that they do not have the power to coerce nodes to upgrade.
* Maybe Trail of Bits got confused because they are POSheads? Or maybe Fernandez failed, and Tech Republic is trash? Someone here does not understand how Bitcoin works. This was the signal issue of the Fork Wars. Bcashers contradicted what I said; their attempted “flippening” was based on the fallacy that miners have some sort of dominant role on the network, economically and otherwise. Their theory failed. And my theory, set forth above, was proved in practice.
If I were wrong about this, then we would all be using Bcash or S2X as the “real Bitcoin” now.
A related key point: The security of consensus validation in Bitcoin is independent of miners, for all purposes except for transaction ordering. Miners have a sharply limited function in Bitcoin: BFT agreement on transaction ordering, to prevent double-spend attacks. All other security is provided by the Bitcoin Core node you have running at home on a Raspberry Pi, consuming 10W of electricity at negligible cost.
This is not the case on POS networks. On POS networks, so-called “validators” with high capital stake have total control of the blockchain.
I thought you may have a thing or two to say about that article. |
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In other news....... I now see it increasingly more likely that this war in Ukraine, escalates... and moves beyond Ukraine's borders..... which is not good news for anyone.
Russia/Ukraine is not the only consideration, but it is one which I am taking into account, when I am considering upping sticks and getting the hell away from London/UK/Europe for a while....I mean, it was part of my plan already to get away for a bit... but, now.... I am seriously considering making it happen much faster. I want as little part of it as possible.... that goes for the Russians, the Ukrainians, the NATO countries, the USA the lot of it. It is all fucking psychos in suits, playing psycho games, and they could not give flying fuck about me....not the Russians, not the Ukrainians, not the EU and not the UK, and I do not expect them to care about lil ol me and my family and loved ones, that is MY job. Fuck the lot of them.... I want to get as far away as possible from the whole thing, as far as that is possible in this day and age. |
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Russia is changing the world. Russia represents the best hope for a fairer world order.
becoin, my favourite Russia fanboy, this would have been a great joke if... 1. RU didn't invade and rape Ukraine 2. RU didn't choke cereal export from Ukraine to the hungry 3rd world (but just stole the grain) 3. RU didn't send their young and weak to get slaughtered in a 3-day "special military operation" 4. RU didn't poison former intelligence agents all over the world 5. RU didn't lie every other day to the world and their people 6. RU didn't stick to agreements (like being paid for oil in foreign currencies) Such fair GTFO with your emperialist shill now. There's a thread for this war. Stick to it, will ya? Yeah to be fair, both Russia, and some of the governments of EU, UK and the good old USA, and China, are all fucking scumbags.... I mean I could do a really good list, just like yours, with actions of the USA and allies in the middle east. Which in fact, is undoubtedly FAR worse, over a FAR longer period of time, and with much less "standing" (ie, as far as I recall Iraq, is not on the border of USA). I mean, remember the USA kidnapping and torturing and killing people in Italian hotels? and other cases of extraordinary rendition ? Remember when the USA and allies, purposefully destroyed the water purification systems in Iraq (THE war crime of the century btw) and carried out experiments on the after effects? Remember the depleted uranium the USA dropped all over Iraq? Remember the lies after lies after lies that the USA and allies have told over decades about their actions? I mean, to be fair this thing in Ukraine, is awful, but it is literal child's play compared to what the USA and allies have done in just recent decades. (at least it is so far) and you know, they did all that with our tax payers money (now that last bit should REALLY make you mad) Both as bad as each other. Also, just to be fair, there are people here in this thread that cheerlead supposed victories of the Ukrainians... which is fine, (but I thought the Ukrainians had basically already won, and it was all going Ukraine's way ? ohhhh I see that was all bullshit fed to us by the propaganda machine, ie, they both the Ukrainians, the western media, and the politicians are all lying to us...and of course so are the russians) Just to be clear, I am not defending Russia, I am just saying, that nation states in glasshouses should not be throwing stones.... annnnnnnnnnnyway, Becoin's, post, imo, is not that out of place in this thread.... what is good for the goose is good for the gander after all no? However, Becoin's post also, had pretty much zero to do with the post he replied to, not in any context at all. In other news....... I now see it increasingly more likely that this war in Ukraine, escalates... and moves beyond Ukraine's borders..... which is not good news for anyone. |
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wen decentralised internets
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