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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25870649 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
empowering
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June 30, 2022, 12:45:10 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?


...death spiral ?
Even in the event that an attacker gains more than 50% of the network's computational power, only transactions sent by the attacker could be reversed or double-spent. The network would not be destroyed.
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cAPSLOCK
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Whimsical Pants


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June 30, 2022, 12:46:40 PM
Last edit: June 30, 2022, 01:23:06 PM by cAPSLOCK
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Gambler’s Fallacy
Most blocks take nowhere near 10 minutes to arrive; the average of the exponential distribution is almost meaningless to everyday-life usage questions of “how long will this take?”, and the exponential distribution generally defies human intuition.
It is classic Gambler’s Fallacy.

No, I am not trying to be persnickety.  The Bitcoinland urban legend of “blocks take about 10 minutes” is Gambler’s Fallacy:  A practical expectation that you are “due” for a win based on a statistical average.

I feel like multiple things are being said...  But if you do not add assumptions to the end of the statement: "Every 10 minutes" then it stands on it's own.  Or maybe it stands for me BECAUSE of the assumptions, I assume we are all making ( Smiley )

1.  It is not exact.  I believe the average is a little below 10, since hash power has been being added all along. , But not sure.
2.  It is a Poisson distribution so it's ALWAYS 10 minutes.  Which means, yes, it might be 4 hours this time and at 3:50 in we were right finally! Wink

Is the point you are making that saying it is 10m is wrong because it almost never actually IS 10m?

(I cut out 2009 since it was crazy-pants)

I am assuming when we say 10m we are all also understanding that it is a distribution that is always aiming for somewhere near that number... not that it IS that number.   That sort of contradiction is part of the beauty of it in my opinion.  

I like seeing 3 blocks come right on top of each other within the span of seconds... And I feel kind of twitchy when it's been over an hour since the last one.  These feelings come from the same part of my lizard brain that stops and looks at the roulette board in the casino that shows that the ball has landed on black 8 times in a row and tempts me to put money on red.

My lizard brain probably saves me from about as much trouble as it gets me in...  that's the basis IT revolves around.
cAPSLOCK
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June 30, 2022, 12:47:31 PM

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?


...death spiral ?

That's great!!! Have you checked for the .com .org and .net?

Or wait... do you mean that dude that posts those long long things here recently?
ImThour
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Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology.


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June 30, 2022, 12:50:59 PM

If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?
Gambit2s
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June 30, 2022, 12:59:29 PM

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".
Another weekend another slide.



YAAAAAY!
empowering
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June 30, 2022, 01:00:27 PM



....appeals will no doubt be made, it might be at this stage, that certain...... issues, may be raised by defence



....yup

I wonder what happens next



yup


https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/20242592.ghislaine-maxwells-lawyers-appeal/


(moving along at a clip)
ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


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June 30, 2022, 01:04:54 PM


Explanation
Gachapin
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bitcoin retard


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June 30, 2022, 01:14:11 PM



It is more to do with capital requirements from what I gather, rather than over all holdings. (edit, actually perhaps there is a cap on overall holdings too, will take a closer read bit later)


(either way, this is progress of sorts.....there have been barriers/regulatory ambiguity in place to allow large tradfi funds to participate fully, which are being slowly overcome and the players they are targeting with this, are YUGE.  Also, some of this, is actually potentially targeting future treatment of stable coins too..)

(undecided on if this is good or not tbh) 

I agree
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June 30, 2022, 01:18:04 PM
Merited by vapourminer (4), bitmover (3), cAPSLOCK (1)

I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.
cAPSLOCK
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June 30, 2022, 01:24:06 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Whoops.  




Not surprised.

Also of interest?


https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/06/30/2471737/0/en/Grayscale-Investments-Initiates-Lawsuit-Against-the-SEC.html
Gachapin
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bitcoin retard


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June 30, 2022, 01:27:47 PM

July August will probably be ugly... boring at best..

I hope some relief to come in autumn
Cryptolove20015
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Do you need a manager? TG_ https://t.me/khan_bt


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June 30, 2022, 01:29:41 PM

The Bank of International Settlements proposed today that banks be allowed to hold 1% of reserves in bitcoin
That's $1.8 trillion.

Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1542484760907419649
empowering
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June 30, 2022, 01:29:47 PM

If bitcoin keeps falling soon it won't be enough to just hold BTC. Every holder will have to buy a miner and make it work at home. Because falling under $ 17 000 will force many miners to turn off their equipment. Those who mine with S17 and pay $0.1 per kilowatt lose $1.2 every day if 1 BTC costs $ 20 000.

Oh my God... I just had this terrible thought... This could lead to a sort of negative feedback loop!  Ahh, what could we call it... an "abysmal spinning down".  No too clunky.  Umm, a "deceasement loop"... nah deceasement is not a word, is it?

I don't know... someone could come up with a good name for it.

How have we never thought of this before?


...death spiral ?

That's great!!! Have you checked for the .com .org and .net?

Or wait... do you mean that dude that posts those long long things here recently?


heh heh, nawh, inspired by some LUNAtics I saw on twitter moaning about how they lost a few pennies at the hands of some Korean deewd


(actually, they did it to themselves)
Gachapin
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bitcoin retard


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June 30, 2022, 01:31:30 PM


Anyone has a guess how long these lawsuits usually drag on?

(they might have a chance to win against SEC)
empowering
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June 30, 2022, 01:34:07 PM

I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 
savetherainforest
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Plant 1xTree for each Satoshi earned!


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June 30, 2022, 01:38:09 PM

Plus we keep dipping into weekends which never feels very "yay".
Another weekend another slide.



YAAAAAY!


I'm so glad that at least some of you are cheering about this. The faster we get to $15K levels we end this faster. I'l be prepared to fill some more of my stashes!   Cool   Cool

WE GET A 30% discount from the 70% Discount !!! That is a 210% VALUE !!! YOU LOSE MONEY IF YOU DON't BUY AT $16K at least.   Roll Eyes   Roll Eyes
gallianooo
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June 30, 2022, 01:40:29 PM

I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)
empowering
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June 30, 2022, 01:49:52 PM

I am puzzled when I see that more than 50% of the Wall observer members voted for "bottom in".

I am not the oldest here, but I'm seriously involved in BTC from late 2014/ early 2015, and didnt sell any BTC till 50K$.

If we are logic, it's seems there is little chance to already bottomed, for all these reasons :

- We came back for the first time in btc history to the previous ath (and below)
- We will probably close tonight below the 200WMA weekly (22K$), for the first time too
- Situation macro economic (covid, war, super inflation, fed etc...) / Recession
- absolutely NO rebound, even at 20K$.. And no volume too for buying.
- Terra/luna disasters, celsius.. What's next?

I don't like to say that, but I don't see any positive point at least at medium term.. So in my opinion there is high chance to have more pain. I just have no idea till where. 14-15k ? 10-12K? Less (but seems really crazy, but who knows..).

I personally reinvest 1/3 of my long terms BTC profit at these levels :

- 20K$ (done) = 25%
- 15K$ = 25%
- 12.5K$ (then every 1K$ down from there till 6K's) = 7% each step


Be brave my friends, we will be rewarded sooner or later.



...at 5k down to 1k? sell kidney ?  or seppuku?


Hypothetically of course. 

if 1K, probably BTC is "dead", tether collasped and all other stables too. , all alts - 99.99%. So every single holders would be fully broke at these levels.

But just read my reply, even if we reach 6K's$, i would invested 'only' 33% of my btc profits. So most probably i will put more orders (maybe till 50% instead of 33?)

33 is an important number.


(yeah and 42 D__W)
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All good things to those who wait


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June 30, 2022, 01:49:52 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

DB] FTX walked away from a deal with Celsius after seeing state of its finances: The Block
https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1542495071685206022?t=OQcH3jAlO4mt6HQVbAl2pA&s=07&fbclid=IwAR0hFacO38O_d1FlcE8TmpaXabGzSjxYRK5Y9T4d9zSLO-PHhVmROhcVGsk

This bear market looks infinite. Every day some company with 15K+ BTCitcoins gets liquidated and obviously all these BTCitcoins getting dumped on the spot market. BlockFi, 3AC, etc. ponzis were hoping SEC will approve Greyscale ETF so that these 640K BTCitcoins to be dumped at 20K instead of 13K. Thanks to the bankers' sock puppet Gary Gensler, this didn't happen. When will this end and what will be the price then? What if this continues another 6 months, 1 year, or even 3 years? This will be serious. We've never had so severe bear market for 8 straight months. May be it will end soon, may be not. I expect more tears and pain for the weak hands to come. On the other hand, this may be the last chance for the strong hands with a regular income to buy several whole coins in the next few years. As it is said in Psalm 126:5 "They that sow in tears shall reap in joy." This is too important chance to be ignored. A chance to have a new house and to retire early. I missed it in the last bull run, but now I have a chance to recover 70-100% of my previous position and redo it properly above 100K.
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June 30, 2022, 01:56:49 PM

If Bitcoin were the only Cryptocurrency:

1 BTC would have a price of $158,448.86 at a $3 Trillion Total Crypto Market cap.

$44,042.79 per BTC at the current Total Crypto Market cap of $840 billion.

Interesting, isn't it?


1 BTC = 1 BTC
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