Indeed, and that is the problem: many external factors are sudden and unpredictable, and the magnitude of their effect is largely unpredictable as weel. But, in retrospect ,the causal connections are very clear.
One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government. One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move. And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars. On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch.
Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one. Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that?
It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing.
Your whole argument fails here. BTCChina was established in 2011 after the $32 bubble. Bitcoin has been opening to Chinese since that was only $2 heh..he believes markets are entirely saturated already. lol Compare the marketcap to single companies, single individuals..it's laughable. Maybe he needs to read what Marc Andreessen wrote about it todayLink? |
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Most of the large moves in the past year had very obvious and plausible explanations. The closing of SilkRoad, the opening of the Chinese market, the Chinese decrees and workarounds, the MtGOX "bug" announement, the Caixin leak and the workarounds, etc..
Please tell me how it was obvious the price would almost half and then bounce straight back after silk road got shut down? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Indeed, and that is the problem: many external factors are sudden and unpredictable, and the magnitude of their effect is largely unpredictable as weel. But, in retrospect ,the causal connections are very clear. One cannot predict, from price analysis or any other way, whether and when there will be further moves against bitcoin by the Chinese government. One can say however that if that happens then the price will probably fall by tens or dollars or more, depending on the severity of the move. And if the PBoC reverses its policy about banks x exchanges, then the price may shoot up by hundreds of dollars. On the other hand one can predict that if another store chain accepts bitcoin through BitPay, then the price will hardly twitch. Since the last rally was due to the opening of the Chinese market, another rally to 10'000$ would require opening another market even bigger than the Chinese one. Perhaps some big regulatory change would attract big investors in the US or Europe; but who can predict that? It is not rational to expect that new markets will continue to open at regular intervals, each 10x bigger than the previous one, just because there were three such events before with roughly similar spacing. Sure. That's a bit of a straw man, though. Very few people know about bitcoin and few of those own any. Few of those own any real quantity. The rest is just supply and demand. For what it's worth, every article you publish brings bitcoin to greater public awareness. |
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I believe Aminorex's arguments (if I'm not misrepresenting them) are partially based on the inevitability of new streams of fiat being made available that are orders of magnitude greater than the current ones. That can only have one effect. It's not a question of technical or fundamental analysis in that regard.
One cannot compute a p value for that "inevitability". He must be using linear regression analysis on the log price since back then, correct? Or... you could read the news? |
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I believe Aminorex's arguments (if I'm not misrepresenting them) are partially based on the inevitability of new streams of fiat being made available that are orders of magnitude greater than the current ones. That can only have one effect. It's not a question of technical or fundamental analysis in that regard.
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should i dump my ripples?
Why have you been holding those in the first place? Had some credited to my acc via promotion or something, never figured out how to sell them Stamp is an easy way to dump them. |
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In other news, Ripple is taking a thorough spanking and Darkcoin is going stellar (again).
Anyone know what's happening there?
Jed Mcalebd unleashing hell on ripple (selling 9Bn XRP) https://xrptalk.org/topic/2629-selling-my-xrp/darkcoin: regular pump before it eventually fades into the abyssal alts graveyard.  Oda: various 'gateways', including Stamp and other exchanges. Don't know much about it myself. |
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In other news, Ripple is taking a thorough spanking and Darkcoin is going stellar (again).
Anyone know what's happening there?
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I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger.
But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language.
(Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?)
Yes. BTC speculation to date has been limited to the extreme margins of motivated, informed speculators with massive risk tolerance and a visionary posture. That's a pretty rarefied atmosphere. Historically, the major enabling factors for expansion have been expansions in the carrying capacity of the channel for fiat inflows. I take it as a given that one or more major capital markets will offer a public liquidity vehicle for custodial BTC in the next 6 to 12 months, so I think it's pretty safe to say that 18 months would be an extreme upper bound for the next bubble onset, which is likely to be a doozy -- a word which historically referred to the Deusenberg motorcar. I have said these things many times, as have many others, I am sure, but when someone expresses a perplexity, and these points seem helpful to provide an accurate form of clarity, I will supply a reminder. Accurate conviction on points of minority knowledge is a wonderful thing. Since I am fully charged for the time-being, I have every reason to propagate this boon where possible. You can bin me with the uberbulls a la Risto. I don't mind at all. Woo, hold up there. Absolutely no disrespect intended, or even real disagreement (though I can't put you in the same category as Risto). Dangers of non-verbal communication and British irony, I suspect. Appreciation on greater adoption is a given. My one misgiving in quantifying it is the amounts of money that are already in vs what might come in. But I suspect it's the difference between one order of magnitude's upside and the next. |
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I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.
PQ=MV, M=k*n^2, n~r*exp(t)+fCheapness is near historical maxima. That's all you really need to know, if you think BTC is technically and politically evolvable to serve as, e.g. SDRs, with probability > 0.001%. I had intended to be levering up about now, but in the event I decided to keep it down to about 80%, so that I can short stock markets (and bull-ride the faster-cycling bubble waves on MRO, with the small amount suited to its embryonic liquidity state) while we wait for the party to start rocking. At the dogleg I will lever up, if I'm functioning. Less than 80% sacrifices too much, takes too much risk, for my present taste. I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger. But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language. (Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?) |
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If you are a current user or new to the NXT community, you are welcome to join us today LIVE on Youtube Livestream starting at 11am New York time to get the latest updates and progress about NXT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KKjCJy_J83wToday's LIVE broadcast will include a special report from the 2014 Bitcoin conference in Amsterdam. The guys who represented NXT at the conference did a fantastic job getting new adopters of NXT which skyrocketed the price of NXT nearly 100% in just one weekend. The guys will share what they did, the contacts they made, and how you can learn from their experiences to help promote the NXT platform. Don't miss this special report! You can join the Google Hangout and update the NXT community with your current projects here: https://plus.google.com/hangouts/_/ytl/vjVQa1PpcFNV3yLddPHeytA-Q32IlpvdoMzRDYCwWp8=?authuser=1&eid=100018920737973592268&hl=en_USIf you do not have anything to share with the NXT community on the Google Hangout, please be courteous and use the Youtube Livestream link since there is only room for 10 participants on Google Hangouts. Let's have some fun! Tai Zen Just caught this, thanks Tai! Great stuff going on. |
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People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.
Have you seen this? Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point. I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one. I don't have one (it's always easier to criticise someone else's than come up with your own work). I think it's a reasonable model. The catch is that adoption is ultimately about getting Joe Public on board. Right now, most of the people who own bitcoins are hodlers or speculators. My guess is that both of those categories will own a lot more bitcoins at any given time than JP who wants to buy stuff with them. What multiple more might give a clue as to how ahead of ourselves we are at the moment. It's hard to estimate, though: how much do you think the average person will keep in bitcoin on full adoption? |
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People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.
Have you seen this? Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point. |
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Ah, yes, just tried that.
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Er, just updated to the new version. How do I search/access the full AE?
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Awesome! I'm at work and can't watch right now. What does he say? |
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What is the minimum number of alphanumeric characters to use for a safe Nxt passphrase?
Wesley's client recommends 35+. I use 30 on the grounds that it's enough for bitcoin (mini private key) and the degree of entropy that gives you should make it impossible for any computer created under the known laws of physics to count to your key, let alone run the calculations to turn it into your address. It's also easier to remember. I don't remember any passwords these days. That's what I have Lastpass for.  You remember 30 chars passphrases?  It's surprising how easily they stick after a few repetitions with a good incentive. |
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I was beginning to think that the one thing that could kill bitcoin would be boredom. Good to see the patient still has a pulse  +1. You people need to look at the past and realize that congestions are always followed by large moves once the scale is tipped. Not that hard, is it? Yet it always happens the same, because in humans, emotion drives reason and seldomly the other way around. And of course, there are the "why did the price surge? any news? what happened? what about china?" cries. Because it couldn't be that price has a will of its own, as a manifestation of the consciousness of people around the world, and that there are some triggers that will incite movement. Nah, must be some NEWS. Just wait. News will be found to fit the movement. |
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Yes be wary of LTC, it hasnt got much going for it anymore and one of the pools has also been flickering around 50% has rate for a few days as well.
Can you explain? Never really saw the point in LTC, but what's different now? |
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What is the minimum number of alphanumeric characters to use for a safe Nxt passphrase?
Wesley's client recommends 35+. I use 30 on the grounds that it's enough for bitcoin (mini private key) and the degree of entropy that gives you should make it impossible for any computer created under the known laws of physics to count to your key, let alone run the calculations to turn it into your address. It's also easier to remember. |
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