Something different is happening and the solution is not going to be found looking at past metrics. Perhaps good for broad strokes and a rough shape...no more.
About the only comparison I would accept between 2015 and 2019 is both will have a top and a bottom.
I respect you Hairy but you have to admit we are seeing a new pattern forming and I would say it has to due with broader adoption and a more savvy market.
All I am really interested in is buying multi-year lows and selling part of my stack on multi-year highs. So yes the top and the bottom are the important bits. This is also tax effective in terms of not getting classified as a trader for tax purposes. I am less fussed about the bits in between. Yes we are front running the 2015 fractal and yes it will be different this time. But I don’t think it will be different enough at a macro - multi year level to change anything that I do. Also I don’t show all my cards in this thread as there is analysis that I hold back. Everything I show here is honest and directly reflects my views, it just isn’t 100% of the data set because I need to maintain my edge. History doesn’t repeat itself but it sure as hell rhymes On that basis I would say we are in heated agreement |
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This year looks way different from 2015, he could be right.
Pish posh Let's face it, the market is way bigger and way smarter than in 2015. And we all know what the halving does to the price long term. Think about it. Doesn't mean it won't continue going upwards after the halving, but $30-$40k next May makes sense to me. ATH implies that it is the highest point followed by a crash. A dip is expected (mandatory?) after the halvening spike but not a crash. |
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Tether on LN is pretty cool. |
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https://www.crypto-news.in/explainer/bitcoin-explainer/paul-le-roux-yet-another-satoshi-candidate/"There are users on online cryptocurrency forums and message boards who theorise, Craig Wright may have been involved with Paul Le Roux from the day he started working on Bitcoin project. Wright became a snitch to US government leading to arrest of Paul Le Roux and used his friendship with Dave Kleiman to steal a hard disk of Le Roux which contains more than one million bitcoins which he has been using as basis to support his claims behind the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. ... There was also an anonymous user who theorised that Craig Wright’s hard dish with one million Bitcoin is actually hard disk stolen from Le Roux which was encrypted using his True Crypto software preventing Wright from accessing the bitcoins stored inside. The user also suggested that Calvin Ayre’s mining warehouse is just a front to hide true function of massive data centers which Calvin and Wright have so far been using to attempt decryption of true crypt volumes to plunder the bitcoins but have met with little success. " Intriguing... Assuming the above is true, they won't have much success, as TrueCrypt is a tough nut to crack. If Paul Le Roux has used it properly (i.e., using a cryptographically strong passphrase and/or nested encryption algorithms) it will take centuries for them to brute-force it open. But... If Paul Le Roux was not very careful in choosing a strong passphrase, then there may be a good chance that they succeed. Craig Wright would then be able to sign as Nakamoto and would have the proof he needs. He could also dump those million BTC and cause havoc... Le Roux isn’t Satoshi so interesting but ultimately not relevant. |
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One important technical difference between now and 2015 is that the 200 Weekly MA is curving upwards in 2019. It was flat at this time in 2015.
So yes we are living in the future.
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Im too lazy rn to post HM's fractal charts but Im sure you all remember the 2 pumps past 300 in spring and summer of 2015. What if we are going through the same kind of thing, but this time instead of 2 spaced out pumps its just one bigger pump right smack in the middle. In that case we would go back and revisit the 3000's one last time before the march to 100k starts for real for real later this year. I think 4800-5500 would be more likely but just food for thought. Would like to be wrong and hit 100k next month but you guys gotta pamp it a lot harder for that to happen.  On mobile so apologies for the low resolution but chart for comparison here. From this height not a lot has changed in the past few days, although appreciate it feels different for you guys on the front lines and in the foxholes. There are no atheists in foxholes.  |
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Bitstamp bid book was a hot mess. CB and Kraken were at 8200 while Bitstamp struggled at 8000. Another failed attempt for long squeeze may be. If this is so, then these people don't have enough coins to coordinate their attack on other exchanges. But if this is a "profit taking", I can't understand it. Various shitcoins pump 100% in a day before someone pulls the trigger (Exhibit A: ShitVision ) while Bitcoin raises organically 2% and they sell down 10%+. Some trader here please explain to me how it works? I don't get it! This is only in favour of the many many people waiting to see some drop to enter the train. We can bet when we will return over 9K.  This weekend may be? We shall see  $9,000 is a key inflection point. Very high chance of fuckery at first attempted crossing of a key inflection point. We need to take a few runs at it. Crossing and staying above $10k should also take a number of attempts. This is all normal. |
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This year looks way different from 2015, he could be right.
Pish posh |
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He is putting the next ATH around the next halvening. Does he even TA bro? |
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Today I looked up the price of a BCH. I feel dirty.
Wanna get downright filthy? Look up SV. Yes, there was the copyright bump that will be temporary, but that is likely done and dusted. There is likely some element of bump due to the imminent CoinGeek Toronto conference too. But what remains after discounting those is fundamental. Fundamentally zero. Give it a few years before something brighter and shinier comes along. SV will be just another Feathercoin |
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it's far more likely the big investors are waiting for a final capitulation towards the end of 2019.
Yes, correct every Joe Blow and his dog Bow Wow are waiting for the final capitulation dip of 2019. Now stop and think about the consequences of that. |
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It's going to dump slow but steady soon ending at $2500 before the year is out imho.
The retarded FUD flying around at the moment is hilarious. You guys really fucked up not buying in the $3ks. You had months to do it. |
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bitcoin to 50k in 2019
anyone against that?
Screw it, I'll open myself up to some haters: I just offloaded 50% of my portfolio. Can't shake what r0ach has been saying recently, he makes a lot of sense when it comes to manipulation. The rapid increase over the last few weeks just doesn't feel right. It's too fast and money (whatever you feel that may be) just isn't supposed to be this easy. Hahahahahaha |
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Cards, just the user name and the photo of the hat.
No cards no names. Everyone wears their hat. |
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Yahoo. Determined to be third best at everything on the internet. |
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So, you are saying sideways from now to halvening?
Badger is a bad tempered drunk driver, prone to fits of road rage. I don’t tend to worry about what he does in the short term as long as he gets home at the end of the night. The halveninng is just a signpost by the side of the road to let us know badger is heading in the right direction. Have you ever tried politics? It’s easy to make money. You just need to know if you are in a bull market or bear market. If you are in a bull market, you buy and wait. How will you know that we are already in bull market? and if it is really bullmarket now, we should also expect alts will pump when BTC pumps also or vice versa? If you are looking for reassurance, Goldman Sachs will let you know we are in a bull market after we make a new ATH. As for alts, they all have an intrinsic value of zero. Their price will go up and down before they eventually go to zero. |
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So, you are saying sideways from now to halvening?
Badger is a bad tempered drunk driver, prone to fits of road rage. I don’t tend to worry about what he does in the short term as long as he gets home at the end of the night. The halveninng is just a signpost by the side of the road to let us know badger is heading in the right direction. Have you ever tried politics? It’s easy to make money. You just need to know if you are in a bull market or bear market. If you are in a bull market, you buy and wait. If you are in a bear market, you sell and wait, and start scaling in after a 50% drop. I don’t know what the price will do between now and the halvening. But I do know we are in a bull market, and past experience is a useful guide to what the future *might* look like, especially on long time scales. |
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So, you are saying sideways from now to halvening?
Badger is a bad tempered drunk driver, prone to fits of road rage. I don’t tend to worry about what he does in the short term as long as he gets home at the end of the night. The halveninng is just a signpost by the side of the road to let us know badger is heading in the right direction. |
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26k sats and all is well... Have changed to following 30 day moving average, shown in yellow.  |
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Because that wouldn't be science
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