Actually I do not think the first big bull fit what you ask up there... but did it not have a sort of 2 part run?  We could certainly still do that.

And to your point that it might be doing something different this time... I would be very surprised if it didn't.  Well at this point it is becoming more impossible for it to really repeat itself.

OK... I gotta put my fun long post concept on hold so I can post a simple thing that is ringing in my head that I think some of you will appreciate.

I have noticed that several of us posting here and even some of the relative noobs (came in 2016 or later) on twitter who have lived through at least one full boom/bust cycle are all saying right now.  You can even go back a page or two and see folks saying it just recently.


I am sure I can find more.  But you get the idea...

So what has changed in those of us who have been through this enough?  I used to think it was just that we get USED to it.  That it burns out whatever nerves that react to the pain.  And I think that's part of it for sure... but not the key, really because WHY can we kill those nerves?  How are they being numbed, or armored?

I have also thought maybe we just begin to be able to trust, that though each time might be a little different and will hold surprises (who was thinking we were about to see a >50% dump besides Raja-damus?) that we will pull through again like we have every single time.  I have seen several posts that basically argue this, and I think that is a little piece of it too.  But not the key.

Maybe it's the fact that during each wave of history making BTC goes through - the fundamentals just get stronger.  It's no small thing that we are seeing institutions starting to trickle in.  I was just making THAT argument... that it just does not make sense for BTC to "die". But in fact I imagine the steadier hands out there wanting to get their corporate treasuries in have been lighting up the OTC desks all week.  But yeah... it's not really that either.

Well, what is it?  I will tell you what I think MOST of it is, and it's simple.  And it's almost the sort of truth so fundamental that we want to brush it off and say "Yeah of course, but...".  However, recently I have been realizing how incredibly powerful this is.  It came to my attention when a friend of mine (basically a no-coiner) who thinks he knows how much I hold said to me last week: cAPS, stop being so greedy.  Next time you get to 3 million just SELL and retire.  What the fuck is wrong with you? I realized the reason I do not sell.

The amount of BTC I hold has not changed at all in the last couple weeks. Well it actually went up just a little. Since I have begun to measure my wealth denominated in BTC, it has changed my perspective.  These days I think about how much BTC it will take to put my children through college (maybe not worth it, lol), or buy a house or be able to retire.  I don't even think about how much USD beyond doing the needed conversion since it's still the unit of account for most.

I have quit thinking about my BTC "position" in terms of what it is worth in USD.  I have realized I am not in this to "make money".  I am in this to PRESERVE MY WEALTH.  And the reason these swings don't do as much to me emotionally as they used to is because I have begun to measure my wealth primarily in the amount of BTC I have.  THEN the other things up there come into play.  Yes the price fluctuates compared to USD, or houses etc.  But I am used to that for now.

To the extent we measure our wealth in BTC, we have lost nothing.

And it makes me happy that the rest of the world sees that as crazy.  Not because I want them to HFSP.  But because it is a reliable contrarian tell that I am still doing the right thing.

Yeah... this week has stung a little.  Because the timeline for me moving into my shack on Maui has been pushed back a little again.  C'est la vie...  I am not in a huge hurry. And I have very little doubt that the day will STILL get here before I ever thought it would.

I am hoping the Saturday long post, will be the Sunday long post.   But currently it is TOO long so I am trying to whittle it down.

This is very very true, and as they would say on twitter: Few.

I have been kind of chuckling about all the folks who have been assuming bitcoin was going to do the exact same thing as it has every other time.  I just do not believe it will do that.  For so many reasons.  It will apply max pain.  For sure patterns will get frontrun, etc.

I thought the idea of the "supercycle" was way more likely...  And to be honest, I do not think it's out of the question still, though if we drop much more we will be looking like just a faster version of a standard bull... for now.

But what you say is true.  The fundamentals are different now.  And there is BIG institutional money on the sidelines, and you gotta know the old school players have been waiting for this kind of chance.  They can see how it's acted before.  This is nothing new, even if they have not "held through" pullbacks before, because they can look at the history.

Why, exactly would they not be buying.  Right now?

Very good for him, if so.  Well done.

Thank you, Arrie... I will try to make your tolerance of Chart Buddy worth a little bit, then.

I feel evil for liking this.  There were a LOT of clueless folks that got screwed over by a insecure asshole's shenanigans.

I take it back.  I do NOT like it.  But there's nuance.

It takes a entitled asshole with a need to be the brightest bulb on the Christmas tree, AND a mindless slobbering rube who will follow him over a cliff.
 

I am throwing together a coffee powered "Saturday long post".

I am hoping these are not annoying...  I could move them to Medium or something, but I prefer our little home here...

It is... and the more I think about it, the more I think it's genius too.

https://www.facebook.com/uwajimaya/photos/pcb.10161006715713812/10161006715468812/

Such a limb to go out on.

Quote me!  It either will, or will not happen!  And I predict the chances are dead even.

One other thought... 

I assume atomic swaps are being built to operate on Bitcoin's base layer?  That seems an obvious first step... but I hope the developers are also looking towards interacting with other layers LND/Liquid/etc.

I feel bad pontificating on what "other people should be doing", but at the same time, I am not anything LIKE a developer. lol.  Yet I do have fairly good vision for why a system will be successful (Bitorrent) or used less that it's potential (Bisq).

Right now everything in bitcoin is friction.  The base layer is high friction because of fees.  Lightning is high friction because it's still beta, and the front ends are not great.  Liquid has friction because it is not used much yet.  Bisq is a great idea, but high friction.  just about NONE of this stuff is ready for prime time.

I always think of Matt Odell going on and on about what everyone should be doing when it comes to protecting your privacy in bitcoin.  And thediscussion is super interesting in an academic way, but basically a no hope situation when it comes to the vast majority of users... Even ODell himself cannot really live up to his own standards.

Again, this is why I think if Atomic Swaps work in a way that is as if Steve Jobs deigned the UX/UI then they are going to turn the entire world on it's head.  The governments will not be fast enough to stop it.  And Monero will shoot up to be a top 5 crypto asset overnight.  On the other hand if the system is more "Bisq like" then it will most certainly be useful for US, and for Matt, lol, but not our moms...  If that happens I am hoping the foundations are built in a way that the Steve Jobs of BTC<=>XMR can build his tool.

Since BTC is the main trading pair it will be interesting to see what sort of ecosystem grows up around the atomic swaps once they are in the wild.

I have not really looked into how these things are supposed to work, but I am hoping for a very robust, low friction sort of oracle/exchange/tracker system.  Does anyone know how this is being implemented?

For example... Bisq, for all it's glory as a very wonderful decentralized, trust minimized exchange is kind of a high friction tool.  The software is kinda klunky, and you have to dedicate yourself to learning to use it.  It is fairly high friction in my opinion.  Not meaning to be critical, since it is fairly amazing what they have done.

But the way that the onramp into atomic swaps is designed etc is very important.  It is it a very easy and robust way to move back and forth between XMR<=>BTC it is going to take the entire space by storm.

I would even think that having more than one approach (decentralized) might be good.

Anyway, does anyone know, yet, how this might work?

Kinda looks like it at this point...

So, is this good or bad:

So, seriously gents... what's made this "liquidity crisis" happen?  It does not look like the demand is coming from transactional use (which is high and awesome, but not doing a spike) unless the exchanges have just been bled out.  So where is the Monero going? 

We can't do on chain analysis here, so it's way more speculation/Ouijia Board action for us.

*IF* the exchanges are running low, that means either/and/or:

-Large buyers are shipping Monero to cold wallets.
-Darknet vendors are not selling (and legit, lol but you know)
-Miners are not selling

What else can be doing it?  Just really wackadoodle things I can think of like a BIG exchange (Binance?) lost the keys to a big cold wallet?  Seriously.  Because if it's those three up there we are seeing a potential SLINGSHOT effect.  And it might just be starting.

But just to be a damn crybaby... why is it SO OFTEN that Monero has a super bullish setup right when the greater crypto space is melting down.  It always feels like bad luck to me... but maybe it's Monero style?  Even it's bull runs are obfuscated.

Fcuk.  Here we go.  We really need to bounce here.

Man... this is NOT big volume.

This all seems alternate universe level wrong.

I have no idea what's going to happen.  But I am HOPING for  a higher low harder than pretty much ever.  Seems like BTC is n a SUPER vulnerable position right now, and at the same time there seems to be a firehose of FUD being released, etc.  And we have "captain smarter-than-everyone-else" rocking the boat on twitter, and nations banning it.

If there is a worldwide collusion we should see a BIG one after Russia now.

The fundamentals have not changed significantly.  It's hard to imagine that these prices are not going to attract tons of money waiting on the sidelines.

See!  This is super useful to see.  It is encouraging to see so little piled up on the sell side considering the damn valley we are currently in.  But to honor our lone dissenter I have reduced the sizes in the quote to teensy-weensie.  Wait.  That sounded like something JJG would say.  Uh oh... something might have gotten stuck down in there.

Ok, dammit bob.  I am going to need you to STOP buying racetrack/ranch stuff until bitcoin stabilizes back over, say 50k.  Cool?

:Thumbs up:

Good luck sir.  Well, sort of.  I mean... I hope you remain happy and those of us holding benefit as well.

Wow, buddy... This one has a real chance of launching you into being the next Mindrust.