I could be wrong, but I took that more as a playful suggestion rather than a criticism of my own processes.

That said, I also do work on remaining objective in this environment, which is, frankly, sometimes hard.  Even after so many years of rising the Bitcoin coaster I can still get a little shook up by it.  Though I will say my current feeling of general zen around the market action is definitely something way higher than any other time in the past.

One major improvement, is I wrote a simple little android widget in which I could put an equation.  It made two API calls to get BTC and XMR prices.  And showed me a sum.  Basically "'how many dollars is your Bitcoin (and XMR) worth at this moment".  After running that for years.. I stopped about 3 months ago.  A damn good choice, frankly.

HA!  Actually your younger daughter speaks the wisdom of children.  That's most certainly true...

This will not be true.  Not exactly.  And I am NOT offering any financial advice.  Do not let my bullish ridiculousness influence your decisions.  You can influence your own.


But I think one possibility is for Bitcoin to basically continue what it started doing... But instead of a tantrum throwing toddler, a moody teenager.

Not learning to walk anymore... But what comes after walking?

BUMPER STICKER!

He was penniless etc.  A sad ending.  But he was also eating a loony diet of like honey and vegetable juice.  His skinniness is most likely due to the kookoo diet.

That is essentially correct.  It does sort of run up the previous bottom, but I would honestly call this a "1 touch" line.  Which I do know is bullshit.  So my worries are really silly, other than the fact that any more local lines are firmly broken now.

But (without quoting as much) sounds like we line up on a lot of other thoughts around this.

If nothing else this is fun.

The two variable that are really irritating me are:

1.  The Macro backdrop (inc Covid, CB inflation, war, collapsing nations, oil, urea, China and so much else).  Fundamentally this could drive so much.

2.  Paper corn.  The proliferation of all these not bitcoin bitcoin.  Synthetic ETFs, proxies, etc.  This could both depress the price, as well as take out some of the buying pressure.  This one is INTERESTING because Bitcoin has properties that make this a very dangerous game for those who choose to play it.

I love this.  Because you are basically taking the exact opposite of the scenario I see playing out.  BTW, I think you did well to sell where you did, and congratulate you for locking in the life changing gains!  nice!

BUT. You are basically seeing this as another cycle...  and I am betting it is not. I do not think we have to wait to 24-25 for the next run.  In fact I think we will have 6-8 months max.  And even if we DO have to wait till 24-25 we never have the magnitude pullback we saw in cycles past.

I need to do some real due diligence before i start saying numbers like that... that's butt pencil math.

Anyway, I am glad someone I respect is taking the other end of this.  If I were a betting man, I'd offer you a wager.  But I am not, and will just risk my already shaky reputation.

Here is a famous analyst who would be even more bearish than you insofar as the depth and breadth of the bear, who was famous for exactly 1 bear call years ago:


I am assuming this is based on the BIGGEST zoom out of Elliot Wave theory...

'

I have spent giant JJG size walls of text saying what you said well in few sentences!

Maybe some of your technical wizards like Dragon or Toxic et al can fix my errors here or fill in the blanks, but it looks to me lioke we are piercing the most liberally drawn trendline possible:



In the end I will be SUPER surprised if we are entering a new Bear (that is a capital 'B' as in 'Bitcoin Winter')... but the chance of it is bigger than ever so far in this "cycle".  So my "Cycles are on the way out" thesis is on the verge of being tested.

I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.  At the very minimum I do not think we see a 80%+ pullback from ATH.

What is that umm...  We do not go below 13.8k?

See thjat's the other interesting metric.  That is the pullback based on the minimum % from other cycles.  But that also takes us to below the previous cycles ATH.  Since we have not gone up the same sort of multiples as the past, I don't see us going down that way either. 

I continue to propose that that model is breaking.

I think we see bears that last something like the last 6 month one did, and then probably new ATH again, but most likely not the same sort of huge multiple...  things like 3x instead of 30x.

LET'S GO BITCOIN!

I have said it many times before, but I want to say it again.  And add a little current thoughts.

-I think "cycles" are becoming a thing of the past for Bitcoin.

-Bitcoin "cycle thinking" led to the six figure predictions, which combined with the "end of the year" effect led to all kinds of predictions being made about 12/21.
 
-Now the cycle theorists are revising their theories, and many are coming to the sad conclusion that we have actually done the top this time around.

-This is causing some "I'm a little too late but I am going to do it" sorts of selling amongst "hodlers".

That is happening right now.  Of course in the midst of one of the most strange macro backdrops the world has ever seen.  And I believe a significant portion of the selling hodlers are going to get to experience max pain in the following way:  Just as they were expecting a bigger top in this "cycle" they are likewise predicting another "bitcoin winter".  Not everyone is there yet, but lots are from my personal sampling of the twitter/reddit and yes bitcointalk space.

But just as a large part of the hodler herd miscalculated the "cycle top" they are now miscalculating the potential bottom. 

I predict that will underwhelm in a similar fashion.  Some people will make the NEXT mistake as well in announcing that the cycle is not over yet after all and we are on our way to the blow off top we expected to be here for XMAS.

Now, I think we might see something that looks like a 2013-14 double top cycle, but I think what we are more likely to see is a continued loss of the extreme cycles based volatility. In fact, I think it is entirely possible we see everyone's most important (but arbitrary) 100k price level sometime in 2022 (or maybe not), and though we will almost certainly see something a little frisky happening whenever we DO cross that threshold I still think the big surprise we are waiting to see is the lack of any significant "winter".   I think we are seeing those blow offs and brutal 80-90% bears headed towards being over.  A thing of the past. There will still be plenty of volatility, but I think it's not as deep or high, and possibly a little more quickly oscillating.

Along with the loss of those bipolar swings we are also giving up the unbelievable gains we saw since 2009.  I think we still easily have a 10x or a 100x and more in the cards for the future... but this also pales in comparison of what the years looked like while we were bootstrapping.

And it SHOULD be this way.  We are still "early" and there is a lot to gain by getting in RIGHT HERE.  But nothing compared to what we went through during the whipsaw years.  Half million dollar bitcoin is just a 10x-ish from here.  Some of this is reflected in the popcorn markets around dogcoins and NFTs and the like.  People want the bitcoin 30000x cargo cult plane to land again... THIS TIME they will be ready!  When in reality another 10x or even 100x in the relative short term in Bitcoin is still a real possibility... life changing gains even if you bought your first coins TODAY (though to get more you have to risk more nowadays of course).

So, I think some hodlers get burned trying to catch the bottom of the "coming winter", just like many were burned by "500k by conference day" type shit.

One last thing.  None of this means any disrespect to people selling recently.  Either to diversify, fund life things, or just avoid having to live through another drawdown like 2017-2020.  There is nothing wrong with wanting to lock in gains for really ANY reason.  Though defining what "locking in gains" really means is a different essay entirely.  But, I just think the idea that we will continue to see a market that looks like the first 10 years is terribly wrong.

NOW if my bottom call (not really, I still think there is more chance we break through it) of 42.5 will just hold I will pour myself a little dram of whiskey.  If not?  Meh.  Maybe not a "winter", but a little cold for my tastes indeed!

***PS EDIT***  I want to seemingly contradict myself hugely by saying one other thing.  I do still think a S-curve adoption/valuation supercycle event is a non-zero possibility.  It really is a matter of how steep is that curve.  Imagine if we see the last 18 months just repeat itslef over and over for about 7-10 years... see what I am saying?  I am not sure if my opinion on the likelihood of this has changed in the last 6-8 months... hmm...

Ugh.  



That said, we will have a lot of support in this range if we end up in it...

Playing pickup sticks on my chart 42.5-42.8 is the next place bulls make a stand...

I think in the long term the stock market and economy deflating will indeed benefit BTC.  But I also think we will see some blood in our streets too when the piper comes calling.

It will be interesting to see it play out.

So here is some depressing Copium


https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1478815427987861504

If I am understanding the internet is not the only thing that has gone down there...

Yuck.  That is fairly strong support being decisively skewered.

What if... what if... proudhon is RIGHT?

It would be nice to see this regain that support level quickly, but that's kind of grasping at straws?

I have a good feeling.

You can see what looks like a pretty significant bear attempt to drop this under the bottom of the channel it's in.  Maybe a short and reversal?

But it keeps coming back...  And this morning it looks frisky.

Hopefully I did not jinx it

Kinda looking like just more of the same...



I feel like we would either need extraordinary positive pressure specifically for Monero, or a bullish tailwind for the whole crypto sector.  And neither of those is here.  So back down to 4 we go?

Or am I just moaning?

Well.. It did a nice bounce.  Let's stop knocking on that door though!

Eeek...