Well the contagion is still spreading. The silver gate bank keeps hitting new lows. This is the top bank for crypto pretty much. Doesn’t make sense why it’s tanking so much.

Then there is the Genesis and GBTC mess. Basically discount off GBTC went down a little into the close, but what does that mean. Genesis is still looking for a loan. They asked Binance and they said no.

If Genesis goes under then everyone from Gemini earn is screwed. And maybe other platforms.

We don’t know if it’s accumulation yet, we have been here for only a week. Accumulation is when there is basically no movement and people just quit crypto out of boredom, similar to early 2019 and most of 2015.

It seems we actually might chop around in this area. If we did it would be good because it seems like a decent bottom. However there is way too much macro risks right now to know for sure. Going to be a busy month.

FTX had KYC but it was minimal and never verified hence why it was so popular. All you needed was a working SMS in your country and that was it. Many used a burner phone. And for name and address many just made something up.

For other exchanges you need to submit actual id and proof of residency. You might even need to state the proof of funds. Hence why many chose FTX instead.

Basically there is a white hat and a black hat wallet which flowed out of the FTX hot wallet when they claimed bankruptcy.

Last night they dumped like $50M ETH and traded for BTC. And last week they dumped many alts and traded for Dai, very suspicious.

The other wallet is some multisig wallet and it’s legit. They won’t be selling anything until the court starts.

It’s definitely the hackers address. It’s strange why he would go on the Bitcoin chain however. My guess is to mix it somehow and perhaps trade it for monero however you can only do that with an exchange, I don’t believe there are many monero and Bitcoin cross chains.

There is also speculation that next Sunday he will do the same. Dump 200M in an illiquid day while at the same time he opens a big short on some exchange to profit off the panic.

From what I understand. 1/3 of the assets were stolen the rest went to the government.

This is pretty accurate considering the government would dump low illiquid tokens with huge slippage and why would DAI be bought instead of just leaving the assets as is.

There is 200MM left to be dumped so be on alert because if it’s dumped during a weekend we will go below $1000 ETH for sure.

FTX released a statement today which sounded the opposite of what the liquidator said a few days back. They are saying that many of the companies that FTX ownes are not debtors. Such as ledgerx. So they think they can get some of their companies sold or restructure and perhaps resume operations which I find hard to believe.

A few days back the liquidator said he worked on Enron’s case and FTX is much worse and now he is saying he can restructure efficiently. No idea who to believe anymore.

I have no idea how this bankruptcy is working exactly.

Both USA and Bahamian government are saying they are in charge of the bankruptcy. We are getting reports from both agencies they are working on recovering funds. However how can both of them do this exactly?

Very confused.

From what I can tell. There is some article out on Twitter about 3AC borrowing BTC from Genesis and converting them to GBTC.

Do you remember in 2021 when you were offered almost 10% to lend your BTC? There was also huge premiums on futures BTC and ETH. Something like 2% a month.

So I think 3AC borrowed BTC from Genesis, converted to GBTC and were
Going to capture the premium but the premium disappeared. So now I think they owed a lot of money to Genesis and went bankrupt.

It was fine for the last few months because there was no bank run on Genesis. But after FTX collapsed people requested their crypto back from Gemini, which was held by Genesis and they don’t have enough to cover withdraws, hence they need to raise funds.

Basically contagion keeps spreading.

The reason you got liquidated is because you used too much leverage. Never trade 100x that is just nuts. You will be liquidated in seconds if you do that.

Most traders use maybe max 10x or so. And many only use the leverage to keep less crypto on an online exchange. If you trade like this you will keep liquidating accounts one after the other.

Right now it’s make it or break it for Bitcoin.

We got horrible news. Basically exchanges going under, banks possibly going under, genesis needs $1B and is dumping their GBTC shares and pushing the GBTC discount to almost 50%.

Basically markets are in bad shape. If Bitcoin survives this month, then we bottomed.

GBTC is almost reaching 50% discount to Bitcoin. There is speculation that the fund might have to liquidate to save Genesis.

Currently each share holds $15.19 worth of Bitcoin on the fund, however you can buy a share for $8.10 which means its currently trading at a 46.6% discount.

Basically its like buying bitcoin at $8800. A price not seen since Covid crash pretty much.

If you are holding any crypto on exchanges. Cold storage all that crypto. Get an old laptop or desktop you never use and use Electrum for BTC or use MyEtherWallet for ETH and ERC20 tokens. Don't connect that laptop to the internet and you got secure cold storage. If you have a hardware wallet then use that.

If you have any fiat on exchanges. Withdraw them into your bank account ASAP!.

If you have any stablecoins either convert into real fiat and withdraw into your bank account OR buy crypto with those stablecoins.

This FTX contagion keeps spreading. Right now the issue is with Silvergate bank. They are one of the banks which transfers and holds crypto for most exchanges. The banks stock value has already plummeted 50% since Nov 8th. They claim to have little exposure to FTX. However why is the stock going down everyday???

If Silvergate bank stops operations. What will happen? Who knows. But I don't want to find out.

I don't believe anymore "We are fine!". "We had little exposure to FTX", "etc".

I looked into this back in 2017 and figured out why there is a massive premium. It’s due to capital controls. I forgot which way but you could send your Bitcoin and sell it for their currency but you wouldn’t be able to get your usd back pretty much.

There is also the issue that you need to be a citizen just to open a bank account there. You can’t just open it online and wire money back and forth, won’t work.

If it was easy:.. there wouldn’t be a premium.

There hasn’t been any good news for the past week pretty much. The last 2-3 days were steady but we got lots of negative press.

Look at the contagion that is going on. We got genesis raising funds to pay off the Gemini earn customers. We got lots of other market makers which are struggling with capital.

Everyday there is tons of funds removed from exchanges due to fear. Be surprised that Bitcoin is still at $17K.

You think it’s that easy running an exchange? You need loads of funds. You need market makers. You need skilled developers who won’t create a website full of bugs.

If it was this easy to be the next FTX then everybody would be doing it but it’s not. We probably got 100 exchanges and maybe top 10 are used by 90% of people. The rest are all small and no volume.

Yes I heard this news and I find it hard to believe. Because why didn’t he just send the funds to the governments wallets instead of moving all the assets to different Defi networks and dumping it all for dai.

There is also the issue with slippage. Since he was selling massive amounts with poor liquidity he got bad fills and lost tons of money this way. A very bad action on the governments part.

But at least these funds are safe.

Another day has passed and the mess with FTX keeps getting weirder and weirder. Basically it was uncovered that sbf had like $1b that he loaned himself from FTX with user funds. Opened some shell company or whatever it’s called under some Paperbird Inc account.

Now there is word that the hacker of FTX was actually the Bahamian government which did it to protect the assets. Makes no sense since he sold assets on the market with huge slippage. Getting messier as the days go by.

I remember back in 2017 or 2018 I would actually triple mine.

Main coin was ETH
Second coin was SiaCoin
Third coin was Zcash (or Zcoin or something similar) which was CPU mineable at the time.

The way the Zcoin was designed was that a cheap Celeron processor hashed at the same speed as an i7 CPU. So the goal was to have as many rigs mining as possible.

Well here is the issue. And this is where I am lost.

Apparently since he filed for Chapter 11, he is no longer the CEO and no longer running the company.

He is trying to raise funds but what will he get out of that since he is no longer the CEO. He posted some interview earlier saying he is raising funds but then the FTX Official posted saying that SBF is no longer in charge and not to pay attention to him anymore.

So I am really confused what he is trying to do.