I've been around since 2014 and also assumed that during 2015 and 2018, there would be massive supply of GPUs all over Craiglist and eBay. I assumed I would be able to score crazy deals buying $20 RX 480 8GB video card, and guesss what? None of that every happened.

GPUs during bear markets don't really get cheaper. The only deals that i've ever seen was GPUs sold AS-IS with dead fans. Many miners didn't want to RMA them or get the fans fixed so they sold them AS-IS and those were usually good deals. Most of the times you can just reoil the bearings and they would work again. But I don't see any high supply of GPUs hitting eBay anytime soon.

Except we have no idea if this is a dip or just a bounce. Remember 2018, people assumed that every time it dipped, it was the bottom and kept going lower and lower and lower. Then when it finally broke $6K and went to like $4.5K, people were like "we are in a bear market". It went down another $1K and then stalled for months and bottomed out and went back up. People were thinking $1K was close back then but it wasn't.

Same situation here, $40K might be the low or $30K or $20K or even lower like $15K, you won't know until its too late to get out or get in. Same with the way that tops are hard to pick. Nobody assumed that $69K would be the top, maybe at least $75K or $95K however it went nowhere near that. This is the reason why you always need to take profits.

I think many had an exit strategy to either get out at $98-100K or so, however it never reached that figure. Right now I think many will have an exit strategy to exit at $50K and there is a good chance that even $50K might not hit, might come close to $48K and head back down. Similar to what happened in 2018, when it broke $10K a second time, everybody wanted to get out at $10K but it went to like $9800 instead.

Either way, you need an exit strategy before a certain event happens. Lets say your strategy was to exit at the old ATH $64K, however when you saw that bitcoin had lots of steam you cancelled your sell orders and moved your sells up, and now you are left holding the bag. Have an exit strategy and stick to it.

I don't know what this app is, however if it was this easy then everybody would create tons of VM and try and get as much money as possible. There are lots of places like Amazon AWS where you can rent CPU and people would be all over this if it was profitable, however there is something you are most likely missing.

CPU mining is never really profitable unless you got maybe a high end processor and you can mine Monero. However keep in mind that the profits for that aren't even that great. Renting Amazon AWS to mine monero won't make you any money because you will pay more for rental than you will make income.

I think the reason why many new miners get burnt is because they have no idea what the concept of "difficulty" is. I had this problem when I started mining in 2014. Bitcoin back then was like $1000 and I understood that if it goes to $900, I will make around 10% less money and I was fine with that and kept buying GPUs.

However I didn't realise that there is difficulty and that also kept going up, while price kept going down. I remember having a bunch of expensive R9 280X GPUs and I went from making $10/day/GPU in Dec 2013, to $5/day in Jan 2014, to $2.5/day in Feb, to $1.25March to pretty much breaking even with electricity. And price didn't halve every month. It was the difficulty which kept going up way too fast.

I don't think this sell-off has anything to do with Omicron. It did at the beginning of December however now its mostly due to the fed decisions on tapering and increases interest rates. The stock market is basically having a kangaroo market which means it goes up one day, and down the next and then back up the next day.

People are bearish one day... bullish the next. And this is leading to many people getting chopped in the markets. And I think bitcoins future holds alot in what the stock market indicies do for the next few weeks. If we keep going to new highs on the SP500, then I can see bitcoin bottoming at $39K and going higher. maybe even a new ATH. However if the stock market keeps dipping lower, so will bitcoin since its very closely correlated.

Yes however what is different this time is that we got the Bitcoin ETF. And this is one reason why there is a discount. People are buying the ETF instead of GBTC because the fees are lower for the ETF. So I don't think this is a correct analysis from last year.

Also GBTC premium/discount had lots to do with the massive amount of Cash and Carry trades that were being performed in Q1 2021. Remember the massive premium that the derivative markets were giving? Something like 50% annulized APR rates? Well many did arbitrage that way with GBTC and hence why there was such a big discount. Right now there are no cash and carry trades going on. The funding rates are neutral pretty much.

I am 50/50 on this. Right now everybody is very bearish and people think that bitcoin will go down to $30K or $20K or $10K. I see 1 or 2 scenarios happening.

We will bottom somewhere in the current range we are in. Maybe $38K or so will be the bottom. Right now the fear/greed gauge is very low. So I don't think we will go lower.

If we go to $30K, I don't think it will be the bottom. I think if we touch $30K, it will go to $20K or something like $15K. I don't see $30K as being the bottom in this cycle. Either $38K is the bottom or something like $18K.

Giving this a bump. I actually forgot I created this topic. I made this on Oct 28th and we topped less than 2 weeks later on Nov 10th. Honestly I really believed we would have at least 1 more leg up, into the $70's range before dropping. I didn't expect $69K to be the actual top.

Reading the main post again, I can now see how the signs were obvious and hindsight is always 20/20. Especially when people were getting home equity lines of credits and using that money to buy crypto or people quitting their jobs to trade full time.

On Oct 28,2021 i made this topic,

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5368047

The title was "Getting Early 2018 top vibes"

I basically listed 10 different reasons why there is a good chance we are going to top soon. Such as meme coins pumping, uber driver trading crypto, Jason Bourne doing crypto.com commercials, people quitting their careers to trade crypto full time, etc.

Nobody believed me. People were saying thats its not topping yet, it will top in 2023, etc, etc.

Currently looking at the results, it seems that 2x as much people, basically 66% as opposed to 33% think its going to drop below $40K. And if you go to the mining section of bitcointalk, you got miners panicking that ETH is going to break $3K and they will make half of what they made a couple of weeks ago.

All over Twitter people are saying they are going to buy bitcoin at $10K. And even that Peter Schiff Gold guy is saying bitcoin is going to break $40K, then $30K, then $20K, and eventually will go to $1K.

Since so many people are bearish, I think maybe the bottom is in.

You know what. I actually wanted to stock up on a bunch of old HDD at certain stores which sell vintage computer parts or some garage sale. And let me tell you. The hard drives are definately not going for $2 each.

I remember they wanted something like $25 for some old 80GB HDD. Same with Craiglist, they got people selling 60-120GB drives, they are all HDD, definately never going to use them again and they want at least $20 per drive.

Even though the HDD is worth $1, nobody is selling them that cheap.

LOL. I am pretty sure he is not actually driving the car while he is mining. The way we got these flimsy risers, poorly constructed open air rig cases, wires everywhere, it would probably crash (the mining not car) as soon as he hit his first pot hole. My guess is he only mines when he is at home and its parked. Then in the morning he shuts it down and drives to work or wherever he charges it for free and repeats it the following day.

Why he still needs to mine if he owns a Tesla? Owning a Tesla doesn't mean you are a millionaire anymore these days. Tesla's are what $40K or so. In my area most vehicles are in that price range pretty much, and nobody is a millionaire driving these types of cars. They got 7-8 year car loans and thats how they can afford a car this expensive.

Yeah I had this dilemma back in 2018 with ETH. Most don't remember but it topped at $1400 back in 2018. And then we all assumed it would go to like $5000. However within a short period it was below $1000. Then it went to like $1200, people assumed that it was the dip and it would go higher. However it went below $1000 again.

And this time people wanted to sell at $1000, however if you look at the charts it never went to $1000 again until years later. It went to like $980. Basically the orders got front-run and all the shorters and whales all got in before $1000.

Then it just kept going lower and lower and lower. Same thing is happening now. So it'll either reverse soon, or it will keep going lower and it'll go to like $2000 and we will want to sell at $3000 but it will never go to $3000 again, until years later. That or it'll go to $7000 when we are all bearish.

The reason why stable coins like Tether became so big is because most people got 2 exchanges typically. First is a fiat on-off ramp exchange, usually like Coinbase. And another is generally an altcoin crypto exchange like Binanace.

People would deposit fiat, convert it to tether and that tether they can send to an exchange like KuCoin or Binance and trade tons of alts and they don't need to worry about any wiring details to those exchanges. Make it much easier to trade alt coins pretty much.

Another reason is for people who want to sell bitcoin or alts when they go up and leave it in tether on cold storage and buy it back when it goes back down cheaper. This way they don't do too many transfers back and forth between their exchange and bank.

Man its crazy how cheap SSD's have gotten. Even at $20 that is sure a steal.

Back on topic, I had this issue also with flash disks. Usually you can format and re-install everything and it'll work for a month and then the problem will happen again. Then you can try reformatting and do it over and over again or it'll just be completely dead.

I also went to the old HDD route. Had tons of these in the basement and never had any issues with them burning out. Only issue might be they use a few watts of power however the stability was worth it for me.

I don't own an electric car so I am just assuming this. However I think that he probably goes to some charging stations and gets to charge it for free. There are malls where you can shop and if there is a free spot you can charge your tesla. Obviously this must be the case because why else would he do this.

If he was paying electric then he would get power loss into charging the tesla first and then mining with his GPUs. Also this isn't the first time this was done. Somebody did this at the peak of the 2018 top. There was a photo of the trunk open full of GPUs.

I don’t think $40K is really significant. A better figure would be breaking $30K or at least last years low or breaking $20k which is obviously the old ATH.

Right now people are very bearish so you might be right and $40K might not actually break. However going by the trend it looks like it’s very bearish and there is no reversal signs yet. So we obviously might break $40K before bottoming and heading higher.

It’s hard to say what effect the fed will actually have on the markets. We already know there will be tapering, reduce balance sheet, increase rates so it won’t be a surprise if these actually happens. It’s priced in.

I think what is more important will be if COVID-19 continues to mess things up and there is no fed rate increases then that will obviously not be priced in.

Or if they raise rates much much sooner or do more hikes then actually planned. So your theory might not exactly work out.

Basically you need to understand this.

Currently there are a few KYC free exchanges you can use. However keep in mind that at anytime they can add KYC and this goes one or two ways.

1) Poloniex and Bittrex basically did mandatory KYC and they didn’t let you withdraw at all if you didn’t want to do it. People got their funds frozen on those exchanges

2) Bitmex and Binance were nicer. They announced ahead of time of the KYC and gave you enough time to withdraw.

So which option the exchange uses it’s up to them. But there is always a risk.