I also never had any luck with Elliot waves. I used to study them 10 years ago and basically in hindsight they were very reliable. However the issue is when you are forward trading instead of back testing it’s very difficult to see which wave you are in.

When you zoom out it’s always easy however when you are trading it live you will keep incorrectly guessing the waves and it’ll be very unreliable.

I think that C won’t happen, it won’t be a higher low but mostly likely has a better chance at being a double bottom. We will see. Most likely this week the $30K area might get tested.

I don’t think it was the bottom. The stock market futures opened and went up 1% and so did Bitcoin however the stock futures are trading nears highs but Bitcoin is starting to correct itself and retrace the entire move, it’s pretty bearish.

Some low liquidity traders basically took advantage of the stock futures opened and quickly brought it up, but now that volume is returning seems like the bears are in control.

If stock market during NY opens negative then I can see us breaking lower than $34K.

No the returns for Bitcoin aren’t going to make you rich anymore. Maybe $34K was the local bottom and we can go back to $70K or even $100K. How much profit is that? About 3x. And that’s only if you buy at the low and sell at the absolute high which is not realistic.

Gone are the days when people bought BTC at $100 or mined 50BTC blocks with their GPUs. So Bitcoin won’t make you rich anymore. This is why many people are putting money into NFTs, DeFI, Meme coins, Meta, etc.

Imagine buying doge at 1 penny and selling at 70 cents a few months later. Those are amazing profits. However those investments are extremely risky.

One thing I just realized is that, it’s no coincidence that whenever Litecoin has a quick pump, it usually leads to a bear market for Bitcoin.

Pull up the weekly chart and check. Whenever it has these pumps, it quickly retraced and the local top is in for Bitcoin.

It seems they sell BTC for LTC and then they sell into fiat or tether and the cycle repeats a few months or years later.

Market sentiment right now is extremely bearish. So I think that $34K was the local bottom for now however most likely it might reach some resistance near $40K and head back down and break $30K.

Many people were liquidated and many sold at a huge loss. Imagine buying at $69K and having your investment lose half its value within 2 months. Lots of fear right now. Complete opposite of what it was when we were at $69k and $100K was gauranteed to hit in nov/dec just like that guy plan2 predicted with his charts.

$30K seems very too obvious to be the bottom. Kind of how $50K was too obviously to be the top or $100K so instead it topped at $69K.

Many will want to buy at $28-30K. So Bitcoin will do what it does best and it will either

1) Go to $30K, look like it’s going up, and then dropped down below $30K.

2) Go close to $30K like $31K or $32K and reverse from there.

Same with $20K if $30K doesn’t hold. Trading can’t be too easy.

I don’t think Tesla will sell their holdings if it dips below their average. Who knows if it goes lower they can even buy more. However it’s different for Saylor….

From what I understand he raised some funds or created debt to buy some of his bitcoins. And I have no idea how it works but there might be a possibility that he might be forced to liquidate some of his position. If he bought it with pure cash then it’s a different story however a large percentage of his position was with raised funds and no idea if they are subject to any term. Bitcoin can dip too low and he might be pressured to sell unlike Tesla.

I would buy it only it was a decent price like $150 or so. Maybe even $175. You need to understand that it came out in 2017 so you are buying an GPU which is 5 years old almost and most likely was mined in its entire existence.

Maybe the GPU will hold up but most likely the fans are on its last legs, so be prepared to replace the fans or if you are cheap you can just slap on some case fans onto the heatsink.

First of all Shiba Inu is a token, you cannot mine it. The developer created a crazy amount and people were thinking it would go to like $1 which would make it worth more money than everything on the planet pretty much.

The fact that it still is like #14 on coin market cap is very surprising. And I am surprised that it isn’t much lower given that entire crypto market and legit crypto coins are tanking.

It’s a meme coin nothing else, don’t hold it long term. It won’t go to $1.

Before covid and before crypto went boom you could of bought the RX470/480/570/580 for around $100-125 all day long. Actually sellers were desperate to get rid of those GPUs. Most gamers only wanted Nvidia.

Will it be $100 soon? Probably not because there is a massive GPU shortage, even if it’s not profitable to mine most likely the gamers will scoop them up and keep prices high. So who knows when they will actually be cheap again.

I don’t think this will actually take place however I am not surprised they are proposing this.

Europe was I think the first place to ban the incandescent light bulbs, if you drive a gas guzzler you pay an extra tax and now this. I am not surprised.

Electricity and Fuel prices are crazy high in Europe so they are very conservative when it comes to these things.

Here is the issue with ETH going fill POS

Sure there will be other coins to mine however keep in mind those other coins have a much much smaller market cap and their miner reward is nowhere near ETH.

So if 50% of people switch to that same coin, the difficulty will skyrocket to keep the daily supply the same and the profits are going to be very mini.

Future for GPU miners doesn’t look bright when ETH goes POS.

The top was like 2 months ago. You warning us now?

I started a thread in the Bitcoin economy section and called it “I am getting 2018 top vibes”. I made that thread 10 days before the actual top. And almost everybody disagreed with me.

Saying stuff like “dude the top is not even close”, “the top won’t be until end of 2022”, etc. Nobody believed me.

Because back then when Celebrities were shilling crypto people assumed that it must at least go to $100K. However since everybody assumed $100K was locked in, the complete opposite happened.

That and people quitting their careers to trade crypto full time and those who took home equity lines of credit to buy crypto.

Most of these stocks have been crashing since last Summer. Look at stocks like PTON, ZOOM, BABA, etc. People see the stock indices hit ATH and they assume that all the stocks are doing great however it’s the completely opposite.

One reason is that stocks like Apple have a higher weight on the nasdaq, so as long as Apple is doing good, it will look like the markets are doing good but in fact that’s not the case. Today Netflix took a huge plunge and it made the nasdaq nosedive and then crypto followed.

They have been releasing these market analysis for Bitcoin for years. At least they released it in 2017 and if I recall they predicted that Bitcoin would go down but it went to $20K instead.

Most of the analysis is basic regular moving average and Elliot waves analysis which is surprising they release this info since these are very basic technical analysis that anyone can do them selves.

It you read their analysis for many instruments in the past you will figure out that it doesn’t really help you. If they had some insider knowledge they wouldn’t release it for free.

Yeah however you need to see why it dropped? Reason is the stock market is tanking. Basically it started first with that Peleton company where they decided to stop production of their equipment and took a massive 25% drop in minutes, and it’s been falling the entire year.

Then it was the Netflix earnings which caused a huge 20% blow. And crypto is following all of this closely. It’s a risk on asset and it’s trading like certain stocks. Next month this could all be over and stocks could be ATH again however right now there is a lot of panic in the markets.

If you are good with computers you can easily just install Ubuntu yourself and configure everything on your own. However keep in mind being great at Microsoft Excel doesn’t mean you will find Linux easy. I found it very difficult. And many will also.

Hence you really are better off paying and it will make mining much easier and more stable. If you got lots of rigs and paying will be too costly for you then just go thru the hassles of configuring it yourself. When you get it working on one rig you can clone the drive and do the same for the rest of your rigs.

But let me tell you, it’s going to be a pain setting it up without headaches under Ubuntu. So the choice is yours.

I think the reason why people are still mining is because they are assuming that the price will increase sometime in the future. Every bear cycle someone goes on bitcointalk and asks if it’s a good idea buying GPUs to mine and everybody says no, they do it anyways and make a great profit.

So there are many miners out there that are mining a low profits in hopes of ETH ending the dip and one day going past $5-6K and they will sell sometime there. This is what many miners did in the past during bear markets. Wasn’t profitable to mine but they did it anyways because they knew BTC price would go up.

Yes I am surprised why this discount keeps growing larger and larger. It doesn’t really make sense why it would be this low. I understand that the BITO ETF has lower fees however for people to sell enough to cause a discount of almost 30% is very crazy.

And yes you can easily arb it and wait and collect the 30% however if it was this easy why wouldn’t someone like Warren Buffet do it already? Since it seems like free money at this point. There must be something else going on. Maybe getting the GBTC ETF would be easy and hence the discount.

No this is not always the case. A year ago was very bullish and most people assumed it would be bearish because 2020 like 2017 was a good year for Bitcoin and many made profits, hence they waited until new year to sell for new tax year.

So we assumed this was a good indicator but obviously it’s not the case every year. It’s hard to say how the year will go. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the stock market right now and the markets are scared of all the rate hikes this year. However this is mostly priced in. So no one knows what the future will hold.