At todays difficulty, yes. By the time you receive it, only a fraction of that, and by the end of next year, probably just bitcoin dust.
How much and how fast exactly difficulty will go up is anyone's guess, it depends among other things how many people think like you, but its not going to remain where it is now. A hint:

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-ever.png

ROI is not dependent on hashrate. Its dependent on cost per hashrate. Costs and revenue scale pretty much linearly.
As for ROI, I never expected asic miners you buy from vendors to be profitable. Not back in March, not next March. There might be exceptions once in a while if you get lucky by being shipped early and other vendors being delayed, but on average IMO its a guaranteed (BTC denominated) loss.

Are you saying you are not affected by Bitmine's delay?

Its the same info, just averaged over a longer time. On sipa most of the drop seems to have been undone now, 8 hour average is again over 10PH.
The drop seems a bit large for just statistical variance, but maybe someone wants to do the math on that? Organofconti ?

With 1% measured, just how accurate do you think that estimate is?

Have a look here:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png

I dont know if that almost 3PH drop is a huge statistical anomaly or some pool or private mining operation going down, but I wouldnt assume its a trend.

Anyway, if you think the next difficulty is going to be lower than the current, Im open to bets

Which is why you offer a 5% discount to fake accounts shilling for you?

As for the actual issues; its good to see you're upping the number of boards in your miners so the performance would match your claims. But how come your one and only confirmed delivery so far only got 3 boards in his 192 GH/s miner?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=304605.msg4033277#msg4033277
I assume you will be upgrading or refunding him, right, along with the countless customers no one's heard about?

Anyone defending these drone strikes, take some time to read this study:

http://www.livingunderdrones.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Stanford-NYU-Living-Under-Drones.pdf

Or at least the executive summary. Let me pick just one paragraph from that executive summary that addresses the point I was making earlier, the terrorizing effect:

Second, US drone strike policies cause considerable and under-accounted-for harm to the daily lives of ordinary civilians, beyond death and physical injury. Drones hover twenty-four hours a day over communities in northwest Pakistan, striking homes, vehicles, and public spaces without warning. Their presence terrorizes men, women, and children, giving rise to anxiety and psychological trauma among civilian communities. Those living under drones have to face the constant worry that a deadly strike may be fired at any moment, and the knowledge that they are powerless to protect themselves. These fears have affected behavior. The US practice of striking one area multiple times, and evidence that it has killed rescuers, makes both community members and humanitarian workers afraid or unwilling to assist injured victims. Some community members shy away from gathering in groups, including important tribal dispute-resolution bodies, out of fear that they may attract the attention of drone operators. Some parents choose to keep their children home, and children injured or traumatized by strikes have dropped out of school. Waziris told our researchers that the strikes have undermined cultural and religious practices related to burial, and made family members afraid to attend funerals. In addition, families who lost loved ones or their homes in drone strikes now struggle to support themselves.

15 innocent civilians getting killed is bad. But probably nowhere near as bad as the effect those drones have on millions of innocent civilians every frigging day.

Answer here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg4055265#msg4055265

Also, how many weeks do you count between now and mid February ?

I gotta agree that the location of the video is of little to no importance, the connection to Bulgaria is already explained and entirely reasonable (*) and the fact there is another company called "advanced mining technology" should shock no one. Note the date it was founded, back in 1990.

(*) except for this,  I forgot to add this to my list of lies; AMT's claim that they can legally avoid VAT in Europe by shipping from Bulgaria is absolute bullshit. I might consider it a mistake, they could have confused import tax with VAT, if it werent for the fact they were corrected and still maintained no VAT was due even for consumers due to some trickery. Thats either nonsense or 100% illegal.

Eventually, yes. But what makes you think it will slow in the fist months of next year, compared to today? . In the past 2 weeks, I have no idea who has actually been shipping or deploying meaningful volumes, besides most likely Bitfury based gear, but it totaled about 3PH in 2 weeks. Thats before any new batches of KnC, before CT, HF, ActM, Bimine, BA, AM, Monarch, ...  Early next year about a dozen companies will be shipping eagerly anticipated (and already ordered+paid for)  high performance miners

Hashrate growth is poised to ramp up considerably before eventually approaching linear growth.

ANd they may, but you cant ship from stock without first producing the machines and chips. Chip production simply takes a long time, so the question is: do KnCalready have a stockpile of unused chips (or wafers) or did they already place the order with the fab? If the question is no to both, then it seems unlikely these machines will be in stock before mid February. If they do have a stock, that seems pretty wasteful. If they have placed the order some weeks ago, then the decision,  which some claim hadnt been taken yet, has already been taken and its only a question of when they will ship those in miners.

300-350 TH per day. THats equivalent to ~10000 cubes or  7000 BFL 50GH/s miners. Those arent leftovers, I dont believe BFL ever shipped anything like that volume ever.



As far as I know, CT batch 1 is "only" 2-2.5 PH.
Thats kind of the funny thing. Whoever is shipping/deploying now,  in less than 2 weeks they are deploying considerably more than KnC's batches 1 and 2, almost as much as both combined in fact, also more than Cointerra's projected batches, and far more than Hashfast.

You did, and should think about the implications. First of all, a yemenite doesnt distinguish between CIA, FBI, NSA, military or whatever. Its all the same to them (at to a large extend, to me too). Secondly, if they are unable to celebrate weddings or travel in groups, do anything some uniformed kid in a bunker on the other side of the planet may find suspicious, if they constantly have to live with the fear of being bombed by an invisible drone, duck for cover every time something flies over them, then they are being terrorized. I dont use that word lightly, its exactly what it is. If my country was constantly being bombed that way, innocent civilians being massacred indiscriminately, my children traumatized,  I would resist as well. And you'd call me a terrorist for resisting, Id say you are the terrorist.

Im not sure I can agree with that "ceiling". In the past 10 days, on average 300-350 TH was added to the network every day.
If you extrapolate that linearly, so you assume no growth in shipping rate compared to today, 75 days x 0.35 PH = 26PH or almost another 4B difficulty, resulting in ~4-5B.

That is conservative, especially if you consider in the past 10 days, I have no clue who has been shipping or deploying this hashrate, but for sure KnC werent shipping, nor was Hashfast, Cointerra, Bitmine, ActM or any of the other soon to be released miners. Its pretty safe to assume that when they all start shipping, hashrate deployment speed will go up, by a lot compared to today. Even if it just doubles compared to today, you would be well above your ceiling.

Of course its anyone's guess if/when all those companies will actually deliver and in what volume, but for a worst case scenerario, even 10B might be a low estimate for the middle of March.

Clearly not as much as there were sellers. If you want the price to go up so high again, buy more, why dont you?

Making what exactly? Wafer production takes on the order of 2 months. So either they must have a stack of unused wafers or chips, or delivery isnt gonna happen any time soon (soon as in "bitcoin soon" ).

Here is how I see it; what AMT is selling are Technobit Bitfury boards crammed in a Lian Li case. Whoopdeedoo. This is something most of us could do easily. Now thats not to say there is no value in doing that, Im sure some people prefer that over a bare stack of boards, even if the latter would be cheaper, more space efficient, and provides better cooling.

The problems however are more than just "communication":
- They've consistently failed to deliver on their shipping promise.
- Their specs are lies. Performance claims for the bitfury gear are grossly exaggerated (64GH per board where as Technobit advertises those same boards as 40GH), the power efficiency claims for their coincraft gear are also lies. The promised shipping date for their coincraft gear is almost certainly a lie.
- Their claimed VAT tax avoidance scheme is either a lie or completely illegal. Possibly both.
- Whether intended or not, their "shill discount policy" actively encourages people to lie on their behalf. Furthermore, they make several claims that I find very hard to believe, like shipping large volumes to "rich" individuals and anonymous large scale "corporate customers". What large scale mining operation would be interested in their form factor? Why would they order with an unknown, unfindable company? Why wouldnt AMT post some pics of those machines before or after deployment?

IN short, at best they have zero integrity, and if you add their attitude towards (potential) customers which seems like a carbon copy of Inaba on a bad day, it all sounds like BFL's vices on steroids without the actual technical innovation. At worst its a plain scam.

Lol. Says a dude who's "job" consists of hiding behind fake accounts and deceiving fellow miners for maybe a 5% discount on a product that may not even ship.
I like my job. Do you?

TLDR, Its not the CIA's fault because...


You cant be serious.

They may plan to order later if/once its established its not a scam. And if it is a scam, well, they didnt lose anything except the rep of a throw away account.