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I wonder if a side effect of China's exchanges being hamstrung (at best) is that Chinese miners will stop mining because there's no easy way to sell their coins. That would lead to a drop in difficulty, benefiting miners elsewhere - though potentially placing further downward pressure on prices on the remaining exchanges.
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Last chance to buy EVER.
Why? China is buying all the coins and never selling any of them. Bitcoin will go to the moon but no one will be able to buy them again. |
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Why not start with just one data stream - perhaps Twitter? See how it correlates in the broad strokes and add to it bit by bit.
Also don't forget blockchain.info charts.
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Can someone give me a quick rundown of what that first transaction achieves? Why is your account more secure afterwards?
This has relevance for cold storage, since it's not possible to send NXT into a verified account that has been created solely offline. Although you can create the address easily enough and send funds to it, what's the trade-off with connecting it to the web for that one transaction and the security it brings?
I can't explain from the level of the code (I don't think that is what you want anyway  ) but... An account without an outgoing transaction has 64 bit encryption. When you send an outgoing transaction, the account number (public key) is registered on the Nxt Blockchain. This then provides the account with 265 bit encryption. As I understand it, it is possible that 64 bit could be bruteforced within 2-3 years. 256 bit makes it practically impossible to bruteforce. Thanks! Actually I was hoping for a little more detail  The address is something like sha256(curve25519(sha256(key))). It is presumably as easy or hard to bruteforce this regardless of whether an account has been verified. If you know the key, you have access to the account. You must be talking about an intermediate step - a way of sending funds from an account without using its private key? |
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Can someone give me a quick rundown of what that first transaction achieves? Why is your account more secure afterwards?
This has relevance for cold storage, since it's not possible to send NXT into a verified account that has been created solely offline. Although you can create the address easily enough and send funds to it, what's the trade-off with connecting it to the web for that one transaction and the security it brings?
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can you please stop quoting that ripple-fanboy here? many have him on ignore because they are tired to read his ramblings about premined scams
I am so sorry, I was just looking at market caps for cryptocurrencies and for some reason Ripple was there too. |
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To clarify, your models suggest that:
1) BTC will bottom out in the period you have suggested (shortly after the China deadline, as it happens)
2) The US stock market is due for a downturn later this year (pointing to an economic downturn a few months later?)
3) Therefore Bitcoin 'outperforming' in this context could mean no growth at all, while the stock markets dip
What are your models' track records?
Correct. The broad market model gives me roughly an 12% edge on directional r2k futures positions over 1 month. The BTC model is not mature enough to measure accurately. The more parameters in your model, the more data you need to avoid overfit. BTC doesn't have enough history to provide useful quality metrics on a scale more than a few hours, for models of this complexity. I've tried to use some tricks to avoid overfit, but I can't yet quantify my success or failure in that regard, for the current model, with a usable p value. Thanks. So another way of putting this might be: "Not sure about bitcoin. By the way, recession in 12 months." |
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Yeah, I also overlooked the fact that to be a gold member you just have to pay.
All this is really saying is OKCoin gave us xxxBTC
Or Tim Draper paid it for them. The VCs will be just as keen that OKCoin doesn't go under. That actually should be some consolation. They can't do much, but there is US money directly at stake and that means some big players outside of China will be wanting OKCoin to stay afloat. |
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So no serious answers then?
What is one good reason to have OKCoin on the foundation board if they are about to get shut down... There isn't one. And gox doesnt count, gox was on the board way before most the trouble and was also probably the only exchange to choose from in regards to having one on the board.
Shortly after OKCoin was founded, they received a $1,000,000 USD angel investment from VenturesLab and Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Tim Draper. At the end of 2013, OKCoin closed a Series A round of funding led by Ceyuan Venture Capital, raising $10 million USD.
A clue there, I think. OKCoin just released an English version of their website that opens up their top of the line services, such as P2P margin trading, to the international market.
Another clue. -> OKCoin desperately looking for ways to stay in business. VCs desperately looking for ways to protect their investment. |
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The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha
Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators. For the next 6 months BTC should outperform. Elaborate, if you will? In my day job, I construct systems which build predictive graphical models. The best model I have for predicting XBTUSD right now puts the next bottom somewhere between 15 May and 30 May. My best performing (F1) model of the broad US market (roughly, the Russell 2000) has a sequence of high mass concentrations at progressively lower price ranges in mid-June, early-August, and early-October. Since there is no lower mass concentration on longer time frames, when intregrating over price points, these models indicate that BTC will outperform the market until Winter, when their mass diffuses. (Picking this up from yesterday) To clarify, your models suggest that: 1) BTC will bottom out in the period you have suggested (shortly after the China deadline, as it happens) 2) The US stock market is due for a downturn later this year (pointing to an economic downturn a few months later?) 3) Therefore Bitcoin 'outperforming' in this context could mean no growth at all, while the stock markets dip What are your models' track records? |
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The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha
Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators. For the next 6 months BTC should outperform. Intriguing. Elaborate, if you will? I know that this is off-topic, or at least off the topic that has been discussed for the last few pages, but all the same. |
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I just think it's a waste of time to write a whole thread about something that can be proven wrong in 1 minute if someone sells as little as 550 coins.
Yes. But think of the entertainment value of elux eating his cat. |
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What is the deal with the users of this forum and their useless predictions. Guessing a possible outcome right is no achievement.
It does not help to to strengthen the value of your character, nor does it make you reputable (except among the simple minded perhaps).
Ahem. Inadvertently hitting the nail on the head, there. |
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Since April 11 when we hit about $340, we went up above $540, then retested a higher support level of about $425 on April 28 and a second time today.
Here is my prediction:
75% probability that from here we are going up, and will test new support levels that are higher than $425... We will never see $425 again.
Quoting,.. so I could have someone to laugh at later We already hit $425.00 earlier today on Stamp. Edit: ok, that could have been after you posted. Wait for it... |
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I think it's time that I bowed out of this thread too. Goodnight.
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Madoff promised 0.83% per month using magical arbitrage strategies and the smart people knew that couldn't be real.
probably you don't know how High yeld investment work. personally I partecipate since 2008 to a Private Placement Program with 1.5% per month of revenue. I receive CASH every 3 months (not numbers written into a paper or pdf file...). Obviously is not a program for cheaper investors..... The problem is to choose a right company for the investment Personally I trust bitcoin-trader and I have invested a small amount, reinvesting everyday the revenue. With this procedure after one year you have initial_capital x 10. On these investments the rule is: invest the amount you can loose without problem I'm conscious bitcoin trader people can go away with clients cash, but this risk is everywhere. If you don't love the risk, keep the cash under the bed my 2 cents What are your reasons for trusting them? |
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Compounding and returns apart:
I think they will keep going as long as there is money there, regardless of whether people are withdrawing capital or earnings. Some people's daily/weekly earnings will be higher than others' capital, anyway.
My guess is that the daily earnings will drift downwards as the pot reduces, until the site disappears or announces some takeover/problem/whatever.
I'd like someone to look at the blockchain if they have the skills, to see where the addresses they use lead. It may not prove anything but there may be some evidence there.
This is only a guess, as I said: no real evidence, just a whole load of red flags. That's good enough for me, though.
If anyone has money in there, I'd suggest you withdraw daily to minimise your losses and plan to do without whatever you've not yet recouped.
If you have 'made' money (at the expense of the newcomers who may have signed up through your links) then that's on your conscience. If it bothers you, there are some great charities using bitcoin for microfinance who I'm sure would welcome your donation.
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So I originally posted this in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=518602.0;topicseen But of course it was deleted since the pumper is self-moderating the thread. Has anyone actually received their principal back from this? 20% per month = double your money in 5 months. Madoff promised 0.83% per month using magical arbitrage strategies and the smart people knew that couldn't be real. What is the total size of the trading fund? If you're doing arbitrage with your $1,000 account I could see a 20% return being possible. But arbitrage opportunities do not scale. There is a limited amount of arbitrage available in the market and lots of people competing to get it. And according to bitcoin-trader.biz they are doing manual trading. How could it be possible for them to get the large amount of arbitrage profits they'd need for those level of returns, especially when they are at a huge disadvantage to automated traders? Plus they are reporting returns of around 1% per day. That's a 3778% APY when compounded daily ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-yield_investment_program). If they were getting those kinds of returns they wouldn't need to take anybody else's money. 1 BTC invested at those rates in April 2013 would be worth 4,100,974,661,233,895 BTC today. Or you know, 300,000,000 times the total supply of Bitcoins. I'm calling it: PONZIAnd also: FYI bitcoin-trader.biz was registered October 2013 ( http://who.is/whois/bitcoin-trader.biz). OP [in that other thread] said they started in April 2013, six months before the domain was registered. Maybe they used a different domain, but just something to be aware of. Also 120 days means once you invest you can't withdraw for that long? Sounds like a way to get lots of people's money, report that they're making lots of gains, but never pay out. Why would you restrict when they are able to withdraw? For various reasons I'm inclined to agree. Too much doesn't stack up and not one piece of information I've seen on this thread offers clear reassurance. Too much (everything) is second hand at best or just 'take our word for it', 'start out small until you trust us'. Most concerningly, no one has met the people involved and they have no credible online presence. There is possibly a way to check: blockchain analysis. It's beyond my skills, but perhaps you can track where coins are going and whether exchanges are involved at all. |
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Guys, we look prime for a big dump on Houbi. The buy pressure keeps dwindling and the down trend has been re established for over a week now. His market will most likely drift until news comes out this week. But I think we test 2555 and lower VERY soon.
Odd time for a dump, slap-bang in the middle of a 3-5 day holiday. Do you think they'll hold off dumping until Tuesday, or are you thinking it's more imminent than that? No, I am just saying the chart is pretty much screaming that it is coming. We could even get a slight (2730-2780) bounce before it comes, imo. Its soon Monday in China already. I think in the next 72 hours there is going to be a big one. The Big One? Final Dump and move on. Or is that too much to hope for? I just can't see this going on indefinitely. 6 months isnt indefinitely.. Ha! I mean, I don't see this going on more than a couple more weeks. British circumlocution. |
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