Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[p0peji]

Funny how I was reading about prospect theory for my msc thesis and I immediately had to think of the bitcoin fanatics.

[oda.krell]

Thats fine if you dont care that much but the fact is this is happening and the OP is out $83 because of it. The fact that you can do a trade size on the API smaller than on their website is troubling enough.

Okay, didn't realize there's a mismatch between order placement via website and API. That changes the situation for me somewhat, they should clearly have the same rules across all methods of placing orders.

[adamstgBit]

Another day in the mid 400s range. I'm telling you we will be in 400-500 land for quite a while. Accept it.

for a long time sellers have been in control of this market.

because, bad news weekly.

price wants to gravitate higher, because increased adoption despite bad news, but so long as sellers are ready and willing to sell at these prices, price will stay here.

i don't think we'll see a high volume bottom, because no one is in a rush to sell, bitcoin is doing just fine even if the news is negative.

i see a slow and steady stream of coins changing hands , which will lead to an inevitable rise in price once sellers are done.

i see the rise in price as inevitable because the increased adoption / recognition of bitcoin on a global stage has already happened, once we are done milking the cheap coin offered by weak hands and profit takers, the market will have no choice but to obey supply and demand to its inevitable conclusion; 18,000$ / BTC  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[p0peji]

Another day in the mid 400s range. I'm telling you we will be in 400-500 land for quite a while. Accept it.

for a long time sellers have been in control of this market.

because, bad news weekly.

price wants to gravitate higher, because increased adoption despite bad news, but so long as sellers are ready and willing to sell at these prices, price will stay here.

i don't think we'll see a high volume bottom, because no one is in a rush to sell, bitcoin is doing just fine even if the news is negative.

i see a slow and steady stream of coins changing hands , which will lead to an inevitable rise in price once sellers are done.

i see the rise in price as inevitable because the increased adoption / recognition of bitcoin on a global stage has already happened, once we are done milking the cheap coin offered by weak hands and profit takers, the market will have no choice but to obey supply and demand to its inevitable conclusion; 18,000$ / BTC  

1) Once sellers are done? You do realize that at this moment bitcoin is still inflationary right?
2) Increased adoption? China has just stated that it does not want anything to do with bitcoin, as well as Russia, so global must mean the rest of the world, excluding the two largest countries on earth?

[Cassius]

The more and more fearful weeks are coming, non-stop, hahahahaha

Only 3 more weeks according to my best estimators.    For the next 6 months BTC should outperform.

Elaborate, if you will?

In my day job, I construct systems which build predictive graphical models.  The best model I have for predicting XBTUSD right now puts the next bottom somewhere between 15 May and 30 May.  My best performing (F1) model of the broad US market (roughly, the Russell 2000) has a sequence of high mass concentrations at progressively lower price ranges in mid-June, early-August, and early-October.  Since there is no lower mass concentration on longer time frames, when intregrating over price points, these models indicate that BTC will outperform the market until Winter, when their mass diffuses.

(Picking this up from yesterday)
To clarify, your models suggest that:
1) BTC will bottom out in the period you have suggested (shortly after the China deadline, as it happens)
2) The US stock market is due for a downturn later this year (pointing to an economic downturn a few months later?)
3) Therefore Bitcoin 'outperforming' in this context could mean no growth at all, while the stock markets dip

What are your models' track records?

[adamstgBit]

Another day in the mid 400s range. I'm telling you we will be in 400-500 land for quite a while. Accept it.

for a long time sellers have been in control of this market.

because, bad news weekly.

price wants to gravitate higher, because increased adoption despite bad news, but so long as sellers are ready and willing to sell at these prices, price will stay here.

i don't think we'll see a high volume bottom, because no one is in a rush to sell, bitcoin is doing just fine even if the news is negative.

i see a slow and steady stream of coins changing hands , which will lead to an inevitable rise in price once sellers are done.

i see the rise in price as inevitable because the increased adoption / recognition of bitcoin on a global stage has already happened, once we are done milking the cheap coin offered by weak hands and profit takers, the market will have no choice but to obey supply and demand to its inevitable conclusion; 18,000$ / BTC  

1) Once sellers are done? You do realize that at this moment bitcoin is still inflationary right?
2) Increased adoption? China has just stated that it does not want anything to do with bitcoin, as well as Russia, so global must mean the rest of the world, excluding the two largest countries on earth?

the global perception of what bitcoin means & its future implications , has changed, it matters not what laws sutren governments put on it.

if anything these laws are further proof of the fundamental shift in  perception happening today.

[Bronstad]

Wow another day above $400. The sun is rising on the United States of America and the blockchain is still as strong as ever!

I hear China banned Bitcoin


NA, Europe, India, and Antarctica plenty enough for $20K/BTC  

[dreamspark]

how old are these news?

https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/05/06/okcoin-joins-as-gold-level-member/

Todays news actually, funny that. If all Chinese exchanges are on the brink of closing as many in here believe, why are they being added to the foundation board?

[Adrian-x]

how old are these news?

https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/05/06/okcoin-joins-as-gold-level-member/

Todays news actually, funny that. If all Chinese exchanges are on the brink of closing as many in here believe, why are they being added to the foundation board?

The foundation needs to be in control of the next Goxing

[Majkeeno]

how old are these news?

https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/05/06/okcoin-joins-as-gold-level-member/

Todays news actually, funny that. If all Chinese exchanges are on the brink of closing as many in here believe, why are they being added to the foundation board?

because they need a substitute for gox...

[p0peji]

how old are these news?

https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/05/06/okcoin-joins-as-gold-level-member/

Todays news actually, funny that. If all Chinese exchanges are on the brink of closing as many in here believe, why are they being added to the foundation board?

Because there is a shitstorm coming for BTC and they are putting their heads together to find a way to avert this?

[dreamspark]

So no serious answers then?

What is one good reason to have OKCoin on the foundation board if they are about to get shut down... There isn't one. And gox doesnt count, gox was on the board way before most the trouble and was also probably the only exchange to choose from in regards to having one on the board.

[p0peji]

So no serious answers then?

What is one good reason to have OKCoin on the foundation board if they are about to get shut down... There isn't one. And gox doesnt count, gox was on the board way before most the trouble and was also probably the only exchange to choose from in regards to having one on the board.

My answer was pretty serious.

[Cassius]

So no serious answers then?

What is one good reason to have OKCoin on the foundation board if they are about to get shut down... There isn't one. And gox doesnt count, gox was on the board way before most the trouble and was also probably the only exchange to choose from in regards to having one on the board.

Shortly after OKCoin was founded, they received a $1,000,000 USD angel investment from VenturesLab and Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Tim Draper. At the end of 2013, OKCoin closed a Series A round of funding led by Ceyuan Venture Capital, raising $10 million USD.

A clue there, I think.

OKCoin just released an English version of their website that opens up their top of the line services, such as P2P margin trading, to the international market.

Another clue.
-> OKCoin desperately looking for ways to stay in business. VCs desperately looking for ways to protect their investment.

[p0peji]

So no serious answers then?

What is one good reason to have OKCoin on the foundation board if they are about to get shut down... There isn't one. And gox doesnt count, gox was on the board way before most the trouble and was also probably the only exchange to choose from in regards to having one on the board.

Shortly after OKCoin was founded, they received a $1,000,000 USD angel investment from VenturesLab and Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist Tim Draper. At the end of 2013, OKCoin closed a Series A round of funding led by Ceyuan Venture Capital, raising $10 million USD.

A clue there, I think.

OKCoin just released an English version of their website that opens up their top of the line services, such as P2P margin trading, to the international market.

Another clue.
-> OKCoin desperately looking for ways to stay in business. VCs desperately looking for ways to protect their investment.

Exactly, they were screaming from the top of their lungs that they will just simply move abroad if they cant do business in China. Now it is time to walk the walk, they dont know what to do and ask the foundation for help.

[dreamspark]

Yeah, I also overlooked the fact that to be a gold member you just have to pay.

All this is really saying is OKCoin gave us xxxBTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cassius]

Yeah, I also overlooked the fact that to be a gold member you just have to pay.

All this is really saying is OKCoin gave us xxxBTC

Or Tim Draper paid it for them. The VCs will be just as keen that OKCoin doesn't go under.
That actually should be some consolation. They can't do much, but there is US money directly at stake and that means some big players outside of China will be wanting OKCoin to stay afloat.

[soullyG]

From this thread on Reddit, it doesn't sound like OK Coin will be shutting down - instead focusing more on international trade:

We won't move off-shore. We have our Beijing office and plan on keeping it. However, we are currently working on our international website as well as getting everything ready to open an international exchange. An important thing to note here is that we aren't doing this out of fear of what is going to happen in China, we're doing this because we see a market that we think we can capitalize on and that we can offer otherwise non-existent services to, e.g. P2P Margin Trading.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/24rtkj/an_explanation_of_okcoins_volume/cha5zci

As with anything from "non-official" sources, take it as you will..