It's very common for us to discuss Monero in here.

And no, I do not think it would be IMPOSSIBLE to trace transactions.  But I think Monero offers the most battle tested privacy of any crypto asset, and to date any weaknesses found have been addressed.  There is a reason a group of hackers smart enough to steal the designs of Apple's next processors are asking for the ransom to be paid in Monero.  Also the extremely large bounty offered by the IRS implies the strength of it's privacy.

Until we see strong proof that Monero's privacy has fallen vulnerable to forensics, I would think it would be the safest crypto asset in that regard.  Just it's history may be the most valuable reason to use it.  In other words... so far, so good.

Oh boy...

https://www.theregister.com/2021/04/21/quanta_confirms_ransomware/

I would rather allow a homeless person live in my house than trust the government to decide how to spend my hard earned money.

Looks to me like our handle is underway...

Agreed.  And one cool thing to remember is the Monero transactions are ORGANIC.  There is no bullshit being loaded onto the blockchain. No silly extra data.  The blockchain is being used for exactly what it was DESIGNED to be used for, and the growth even on a LOG chart is impressive. 

Monero's transaction per day have been going up steadily now for TWO YEARS:


Monero's hashrate has been incresing strongly since the advent of RandomX:


Monero's Stock to flow model has Monero well under it's predicted current price (~1k) predicting 2x that by the end of the year (2k)


Metcalf's law, which predicts a price based on the number of transactions (compared to BTC) shows the price underpreforming the model by nearly 20x with over 6k being the model prediction, though it has been accurate in the past, including the past bull run.


We are going up gentlemen.  Nothing else makes any sense at all.

(Charts from https://bitinfocharts.com and https://moneroj.net )

Can't vouch for  the safety.. And the exchange rates are not exactly super favorable...  but it has certain other charms:

https://swap.lightning-network.ro/

For example exchanging lightning-btc to XMR, if one were to do it, which I can't since I have basically none of either anymore, woud feel quite cypher-punky.  Especially if one were to be running one's nodes behind tor...

I would assume.

Cute.  I like that they are recording it on Reaper.

I personally think ETH is a badly designed project that makes the mistake of building a network protocol that will have to scale without using layers.  This has TWO main problems.  First of all, ETH can't scale.  Secondly, every harebrained idea anyone has to build some lunatic Rube Goldberg machine risks not only the funds in it, but the stability of the whole network.  And there are MULTIPLE proofs of this insecurity in the history of the asset.

Monero on the other hand is a rock solid crypto asset with privacy by default, and one of the only coins that has a mining algorithm where we do not have to compete with hashrate demands of other projects, and a hybrid blocksize that actually combines the strengths of both small and big blocks.

The two projects are not even in the same class of quality. 

The coinmarketcap ranking is more about herd psychology, and narrative quality than it is quality of the actual project.

The reality is ETH has one of the strongest narratives of any crypto asset platform, in some ways even better than Bitcoin's as long as you do not grade it on practicality.

Monero's narrative is also quite good.  But people do not want to bet on simple/strong and basic when they can bet on complex/shiny and whiz bang.

In the long run, however Monero will see greater and greater use since it actually DOES the ONE THING it is designed to do, and does it EXTREMELY WELL.

ETH, on the other hand keeps inventing new problems to not be able to solve.

In the short run, I think ETH will keep drawing in suckers, so the price is not done going up.  And who knows... maybe it will actually survive and continue being "used", or find an ACTUAL useful use case.  Also I could be wrong.

But there is NO WAY Monero does not rise.  It HAS TO.

Well... and not to be a bucket of cold water, but the RSI is way overheated on pretty much ALL the long term time frames (6hr - 3d) with only the weekly (and up) having some room to run.

This is the 12h chart.  I think it's not impossible to see more UP, but i think a correction from here is more likley...  and we could even see a neeto C&H here if it does something like this:



I think my biggest question is what is driving this rally?  We are seeing some fairly good volume on this run, and it is counter, or ahead of almost all other alts.

It feels like there is some fairly big buying going on...  I do not assume a big sale went on at WHM?   It is hard to see what REAL volume is doing with all the goofy wash trading at the shady casinos exchanges.

Who is buying?

If only the Esperanto word for coin was Moonero.

That is what I am starting to call it now, though.

God I hope this is not just another XMR tease!  Gentlemen we have waited here long enough.  Seeing no one pay attention to one of the only crypto asset projects that has a chance to be important while things like Polkadot and LINK supplant it in the top 10.  I mean XRP is STILL #4!  None of this makes any sense.  Made fun of by the maxis, but we have all held strong.  We are a little band of survivors. 

I hope I am not jinxing it, but this could be our time!  The activity looks healthy.  One thing I have seen on temporary rises in the past is paltry volume.  This move smells organic/real to me.

Wow!  The bus stop is ALREADY kinda looking busy!  Does this actually mean anything?  Slow blocks maybe?

Well most of my thoughts are more feel than science, as usual... but that's also just me.  But I think this is Monero related enough to yammer in here a little about it.

I think I am sort of in the camp that this might be Bitcoin's "supercycle".  I do not like that nomenclature a lot because it is very binary.  But what I think is there are MULTIPLE reasons that this 'halving epoch' is not likely to be an echo of the previous three (2011, 2014, 2017).

1.  We have a SIGNIFICANT difference in the buyer so far in this cycle.  As far as I can tell the vast majority (volume) of purchases are being made at the OTC desks by large $$ buyers.  On the small end we are talking "family offices", and the big end goes as far as Central Banks but includes Commercial Banks/Institutions (fidelity) Corporate Treasuries (MSTR, TSLA, etc etc) and prime time whales.  Retail is STILL barely getting on board in my opinion.

2.  Infrastructure is WAY different this time.  We have Bitcoin being integrated into things like Square/CashApp, Paypal etc.  The lightning network is gaining MORE and MORE traction in spite of it's (even worse than good old monero) UX.  Strike is a ridiculous game changer, and a real sleeper, because what it will do is incentivize retail to integrate lightning.  Liquid is another underappreciated diamond in the rough.  And the fact is all of this infrastructure has been built has the capacity to start providing liquidity outflows from the base layer.  These are ways to transact with BTC that do not require the base layer.

3.  BTC based financial products are in their toddler years now.  The BTC derivatives market is FAR more mature than past bulls.  This will dampen volatility as well as possibly give folks more ways to manipulate the market.  This one has a sort of surprise train wreck waiting in the wings though.  It will be a magnificent explosion when the first big money actor goes down in flames when they end up getting a run on their rehypothicated BTC product.  Unlike previous forms of "money" there is no release valve for this kind of shenanigans.  There are no bail outs.  The GME thing was a warm up prelude for this.  It might hurst the BTC price when it happens, in fact it COULD invalidate this whole supercycle theory, as it could force a >50% bear.  But in the end it will make people understand that you cannot fuck with the honey badger.  Also, ETFs are really almost here now.

4.  EVERYONE.  And, I mean nearly EVERYONE is CURRENTLY pontificating on how BTC is going to 500k-3mm and then will do it's 80% retrace to teach the noobs.  I have been watching market patters for decades.  I am no expert.  But it NEVER works this way.  it invalidates "Max Pain".  And I think 2017 was really a bonus cycle.  We should already have learned our lesson.  It is rare that markets will just do the same pattern over and over, because once it is an established pattern the smart folks exploit it, and it becomes a sel UNfullfilling prophecy.  Eventually trying to frontrun the pattern invalidates it.  We are overdue.

5.  There is no situation in which the bitcoin price takes such a big hit without huge buyers moving in to take advantage of it at this point.  Enough smart people have realized that "in hindsight it is inevitable".  So it can;t really drop without recovering.

This bull so far is bearing out my theory.  It is too early to declare victory, but I expect Saylor might be sort of right, that it's going up forever Laura.  I think it is more likely we crash NOW than do another 6 months of parabolic bull and have the traditional 80% retrace.

To keep it on topic... the influx of thinking money into Bitcoin is just BOUND to funnel at least hedges into Monero.  ALT friendly folks like Raoul Pal will figure it out.  And even hypermaxis like Matt Odell will also eventually break down.

So... in conclusion.  I think there is a SIGNIFICANT chance we see a much dampened dip this time, and possibly a little less parabola, but just a steady UP UP UP of bitcoin, and that trickles down to Monero.  Or even no dip, and still some parabolic action...  I also think it's an outside chance, but I think Monero has a SERIOUS chance with all the infrastructure upgrades to take it's place back in the top 10, if not higher... when?  Not sure.  I think other members of this thread are much better at those details.

I kinda can't wait to see the bus get a little bigger... wonder when that will happen?

By the way...  most of us here are battle hardened enough to have lived through LOTS of those:

--Monero is pumping!
--Monero has completely retraced!
Then sometimes: (--Monero is now even LOSING more value.)
Scenarios.

But I feel like (and that's all i got... feel) this one might not be the same.  Not that we will not get retraces, of course we will... probably one here soon.  But I think we might be entering a new era price wise.

The extent to which I think people are waking up to Monero's use case is still under the surface, but it is becomming harder and harder to ignore for most folks.  In fact I personally expect, though they may not want to admit it, there may be some fairly hardened maximalists hedging a little in XMR as we move forward.

As to XMR:BTC vs. XMR:USD?  I know the latter will be a magnified version of the former.  And as long as this is not the Bitcoin top for this cycle, which I think it is not, then the question is simply how much of the former are we going to get.

Recently, most of monero's movement has been keeping SOME amount of stability in USD.  So it wants to be $80, and as BTC rises XMR:BTC drops so we hold ~80.  That kind of thing.

I do not see us in that realm as much now.  The pressure in this cauldron is building.  Monero does not only offer an extraordinary privacy, but it's adjustable block size as well as RandomX position it to be in a very unique spot during the remainder of this BTC epoch.

By the way, I am also of the mind that this BTC epoch stands a VERY strong chance of being significantly different than the last ones...  but that's another story.

Well i got most of mine at ~$4.  I didn't enter much when it went to $0.25.  Always regretted that.

Oh you mean Jan '21?  maybe a little.  I actually dipped my toe in a little back when i had the earthquake feeling on 4/9.  Certainly not the BOTTOM, but still not bad.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=753252.msg56750042#msg56750042

So wait... I love this sentiment.  But HOW do we know?

Certainly the corns are not being sent to known addresses? 

I have to admit... I decided to look for any ancient DOGE wallet I could find... still no doge wallet yet, but I found my first Bitcoin-QT wallet.dat!!!

Heh.  Kinda cool.  I am gonna save this thing.

My first ever transaction (I think) was among this lot:

https://blockstream.info/block/0000000000000ab9b39e61cff860ec65e65738fd2faeac5acbd136676912a7bb

I figure I am safe hiding amongst the 162 (lol!!) transactions in there...

At first I loaded up the wallet.dat into Bitcoin-QT, and as it was syncing it ran across something and my balance shot up to 0.4.  I have to admit, I was excited. I wanted to be able to tell my wife, hey I found $24k in my pockets when I was doing the laundry.

But alas.

Yes.  This has been the curse of Monero from fairly early on.  

I am pretty much one step down from a BTC maximalist.  I see virtually NO REASON for the existence of almost all alts.

Smart Contract coins - ETH LINK TRON EOS etc etc etc  - These coins are making a fundamental design mistake.  It is the "cram everything onto the base chain" mistake.  There is no reason to use the base monetary chain to record "all the things".  Smart contracts can be done on layers, or sidechains.  And I believe they will be.

Big Block chains - we all know this one, and have our own opinions.  You can always spot a Monero big-blocker because they like to work the "peer to peer cash" angle.  In fact Monero does this one of the best ways so far.  But the big block coins make the same fundamental mistake as the smart contract coins.

Copy-pastas. LTC DOGE etc.  Why?  "Well fees are cheaper!! blocks are faster!! Etc."  Fees will stop being cheap when these coins begin to be seriously used, and the friction of going from BTC to LTC is a non-starter.  In tghe end these projects have an existential problem.  The only reasn they are useful, is they are not used.  *POOF* vanishes their purpose in a small puff of logic.

Loyalty/Purpose tokens  BNB STX and so on. Now we get to see something useful.  Centralized.  Often built on top of one of the smart contract mistakes.  These coins have value because they have a unique purpose.  That value is kind of dubious, and I think most of them are unnecessary, but some will survive.  They are the "green stamps" or coupons of crypto.  Eventually these will be built on a sidechain of whatever chain is strongest (umm BITCOIN).  Liquid is a good bet here.  Because again.  Why build this on one of the gargantuan monstrosities like ETH in the longrun?
 
Stable Coins Much like the above.  These are serving an actual purpose and therefore will attract value.  But it is temporary, and trades crypto-stability for SIGNIFICANT counter party risk.  These too will most likely be built on a BTC sidechain like Liquid, until the die off from lack of use.

Privacy coins And actual iron clad use case for crypto that the BTC base layer will never do.  A tradeoff that has a STRONG use case argument.  And as we here know, nearly ALL of them are scams. Pre-mines, not 'always on' privacy, or privacy theater. Trusted setups, founder's rewards, and so on.  Some projects try to combine privacy with one of the above mistakes.

Monero is WAY out in front of that pack, and will be for the forseeable future.  The market has SOLIDLY integrated Monero into real world battle scenarios.

I would love to see some data, but I think it is arguable that Monero is at LEAST in the top 3 crypto assets if you were to measure REAL non-speculative transactions.  Yes BSV has a LOT of transactions going on.  But what coin is ACTUALLY being used more in real commerce.  I would say only a handful, and NONE of them has Monero's privacy guarantees.

So why the hell is it not more expensive?

Three reasons, and one nightmare

1. It is, and always has been difficult to use.  It has a weighty blockchain and lack of very many wallets etc are a serious barrier.  Drug addicts are incentivized to go through a lot of trouble to make it work , but the average joe, less so.  Just look at hardware wallets.  Getting monero to work with those is pretty damn hard still.

2.  It might be one of the least hyped projects in the entire space.  For the longest time it's 'official' marketing was "Don't buy Monero".  So not hyped that a lot of idiots (that weatherman jackass for example) figure that whole thing was reverse psychology.  Which would be the second stupidest way to market it.  There are no glossy claims.  There is no "founders reward" to pay exchanges to list it, ad so on.  It has just quietly been staying on the razors edge

3.  The bad boy angle.  Monero is one of the riskiest crypto projects to hold value in.  I sort of assume that at some points governments will most likely clamp down on it.  Or at least they could.  So that makes it risky.  To be honest I do not think this is a major factor.

Nightmare. Inflation bug.  If that exists that would most definitely be having a dampening effect on the price of Monero.  I think this is the least likely.

All that said... As the world wakes up to why Bitcoin is important, the smarter ones are going to realize why monero is important, just as we did, but earlier.  It's like every halving cycle a new crew comes in... and they fall for all the same scams, and always a percentage of them end up realizing why Monero is important.  

That number will be very big this time around.

What do you think is currently happening?  It's just the invaders are not intent on liberating us, but enslaving us.

The US is most likely done.  It's too bad.  We were really a good experiment.  In my opinion one of the best attempts at a good government ever done.

And yet, fully, and completely failed, subverted and now being destroyed.

Most of my countrymen have no idea either...

I understand if you don't like him, for his style, or perhaps for acquiring so much Bitcoin.  But he has arguably done more to help the Bitcoin economy than most of us here by a long shot and in under a year.  The conference he hosted alone may have accelerated our chances of hyper-bitcoinization by quite a bit.

Or perhaps you take issue with his assertion that we might not see the typical 80% pullback this time?

He is not the only one saying that.  Dan Held believes it, and Preston Pysh has articulated it beautifully.  I like the latter's track record of selling the top of the last cycle, and saying recently that he has no plans to try that this time because he believes he is more likely to sell when he thinks it's a top, when it's just a little correction.  He thinks there is a large chance we see the boom/bust thing begin to fade during THIS cycle.

No one knows... but I also am placing my bets on less of a pullback this time as well.  Which is fairly meaningless, since I do not trade. And if I am wrong?  Well I am wrong, and I still have all my Bitcoin.

But I think Saylor will go down in history along side Lazlo as one of the people who put faith in what Bitcoin was at the exact time the market needed that sort of hero.  He is certainly a "convert" with spirals in his eyes... but who are we to criticize that?

Course.. you sort of criticize everyone and everything.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯