[XMR] Monero Speculation

[infofront]

By the way, I am also of the mind that this BTC epoch stands a VERY strong chance of being significantly different than the last ones...  but that's another story.

Actually, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts about that sometime too.

[1715089201]

1715089201

[cAPSLOCK]

By the way, I am also of the mind that this BTC epoch stands a VERY strong chance of being significantly different than the last ones...  but that's another story.

Actually, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts about that sometime too.

Well most of my thoughts are more feel than science, as usual... but that's also just me.  But I think this is Monero related enough to yammer in here a little about it.

I think I am sort of in the camp that this might be Bitcoin's "supercycle".  I do not like that nomenclature a lot because it is very binary.  But what I think is there are MULTIPLE reasons that this 'halving epoch' is not likely to be an echo of the previous three (2011, 2014, 2017).

1.  We have a SIGNIFICANT difference in the buyer so far in this cycle.  As far as I can tell the vast majority (volume) of purchases are being made at the OTC desks by large $$ buyers.  On the small end we are talking "family offices", and the big end goes as far as Central Banks but includes Commercial Banks/Institutions (fidelity) Corporate Treasuries (MSTR, TSLA, etc etc) and prime time whales.  Retail is STILL barely getting on board in my opinion.

2.  Infrastructure is WAY different this time.  We have Bitcoin being integrated into things like Square/CashApp, Paypal etc.  The lightning network is gaining MORE and MORE traction in spite of it's (even worse than good old monero) UX.  Strike is a ridiculous game changer, and a real sleeper, because what it will do is incentivize retail to integrate lightning.  Liquid is another underappreciated diamond in the rough.  And the fact is all of this infrastructure has been built has the capacity to start providing liquidity outflows from the base layer.  These are ways to transact with BTC that do not require the base layer.

3.  BTC based financial products are in their toddler years now.  The BTC derivatives market is FAR more mature than past bulls.  This will dampen volatility as well as possibly give folks more ways to manipulate the market.  This one has a sort of surprise train wreck waiting in the wings though.  It will be a magnificent explosion when the first big money actor goes down in flames when they end up getting a run on their rehypothicated BTC product.  Unlike previous forms of "money" there is no release valve for this kind of shenanigans.  There are no bail outs.  The GME thing was a warm up prelude for this.  It might hurst the BTC price when it happens, in fact it COULD invalidate this whole supercycle theory, as it could force a >50% bear.  But in the end it will make people understand that you cannot fuck with the honey badger.  Also, ETFs are really almost here now.

4.  EVERYONE.  And, I mean nearly EVERYONE is CURRENTLY pontificating on how BTC is going to 500k-3mm and then will do it's 80% retrace to teach the noobs.  I have been watching market patters for decades.  I am no expert.  But it NEVER works this way.  it invalidates "Max Pain".  And I think 2017 was really a bonus cycle.  We should already have learned our lesson.  It is rare that markets will just do the same pattern over and over, because once it is an established pattern the smart folks exploit it, and it becomes a sel UNfullfilling prophecy.  Eventually trying to frontrun the pattern invalidates it.  We are overdue.

5.  There is no situation in which the bitcoin price takes such a big hit without huge buyers moving in to take advantage of it at this point.  Enough smart people have realized that "in hindsight it is inevitable".  So it can;t really drop without recovering.

This bull so far is bearing out my theory.  It is too early to declare victory, but I expect Saylor might be sort of right, that it's going up forever Laura.  I think it is more likely we crash NOW than do another 6 months of parabolic bull and have the traditional 80% retrace.

To keep it on topic... the influx of thinking money into Bitcoin is just BOUND to funnel at least hedges into Monero.  ALT friendly folks like Raoul Pal will figure it out.  And even hypermaxis like Matt Odell will also eventually break down.

So... in conclusion.  I think there is a SIGNIFICANT chance we see a much dampened dip this time, and possibly a little less parabola, but just a steady UP UP UP of bitcoin, and that trickles down to Monero.  Or even no dip, and still some parabolic action...  I also think it's an outside chance, but I think Monero has a SERIOUS chance with all the infrastructure upgrades to take it's place back in the top 10, if not higher... when?  Not sure.  I think other members of this thread are much better at those details.

[cAPSLOCK]

Wow!  The bus stop is ALREADY kinda looking busy!  Does this actually mean anything?  Slow blocks maybe?

[phishead]

Wow!  The bus stop is ALREADY kinda looking busy!  Does this actually mean anything?  Slow blocks maybe?

Since our block time is x4 faster and we have dynamic blocks, did you notice the median costs per transaction spike?? Just curious.

But yeah, people are starting to wake up to Monero... and a lot of people are probably smacking their heads that they didn’t buy the lows like Kozi was suggesting

[Febo]

Wow!  The bus stop is ALREADY kinda looking busy!  Does this actually mean anything?  Slow blocks maybe?

Sometimes just takes a bit more between two blocks. It can take even 6 minutes and then can be few blocks one after another. But today Monero will reach new transactions ATH, so blockchain was never so busy as it is right now. Hopefully for first time over 30k transactions in a day.  

I kinda can't wait to see the bus get a little bigger... wonder when that will happen?

This is tricky to answer since everything can be changed when triptych happen at next hard fork. We will have to wait some more time before all will be decided and cast predictions while considering actual numbers. I dont believe Monero could have such growth of transactions to get blocks full before the protocol upgrade will happen.

[cAPSLOCK]

If only the Esperanto word for coin was Moonero.

That is what I am starting to call it now, though.

God I hope this is not just another XMR tease!  Gentlemen we have waited here long enough.  Seeing no one pay attention to one of the only crypto asset projects that has a chance to be important while things like Polkadot and LINK supplant it in the top 10.  I mean XRP is STILL #4!  None of this makes any sense.  Made fun of by the maxis, but we have all held strong.  We are a little band of survivors. 

I hope I am not jinxing it, but this could be our time!  The activity looks healthy.  One thing I have seen on temporary rises in the past is paltry volume.  This move smells organic/real to me.

[kurious]

Getting back above 007 is a big deal, it's a complete recovery of the Bittrex lows.   I think it's looking good for at least the rest of this month. 
Then (looking at historical trends) even if it settles back we should see one more early autumn pump.  BTC will of course dictate again for a while this autumn, with hopefully another run as the BTC pump settles back in spring '22.   
Just my gut feeling after seven years of close Monero watching.  The main thing is that it seems certain that Monero is - and will remain - a contender.  Top 20 MC is in plain sight.  Let's see Monero back where it belongs.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well... and not to be a bucket of cold water, but the RSI is way overheated on pretty much ALL the long term time frames (6hr - 3d) with only the weekly (and up) having some room to run.

This is the 12h chart.  I think it's not impossible to see more UP, but i think a correction from here is more likley...  and we could even see a neeto C&H here if it does something like this:



I think my biggest question is what is driving this rally?  We are seeing some fairly good volume on this run, and it is counter, or ahead of almost all other alts.

It feels like there is some fairly big buying going on...  I do not assume a big sale went on at WHM?   It is hard to see what REAL volume is doing with all the goofy wash trading at the shady casinos exchanges.

Who is buying?

[fabiorem]

Any chance of XMR to catch up with ETH (in terms of price) this year? ETH have the smart contracts, but XMR have the privacy. It should be on top 10.

Also, check Haveno: https://github.com/haveno-dex/haveno
It is a exchange based on BISQ, which is being developed for Monero.

[seoincorporation]

Any chance of XMR to catch up with ETH (in terms of price) this year? ETH have the smart contracts, but XMR have the privacy. It should be on top 10.
...

XMR is right now in position 22 in coinmarket cap, and it will be kind of hard to see in in the top 10 because its application is more complex than other altcoins.

The complexity of the monero core brings anonymity to the users but at the same time is hard to develop APPs with monero. Isn't like the other coins where you can make easy RPC calls to create sign and push the transactions. The point is, if we have developed something with Bitcoin RPC we can rise that knowledge to build something with LTC or DOGE, but not with monero.

And the anonymous fact is cool, but do people really want to hide their identity? Only the bad guys need that.

[Hueristic]

And the anonymous fact is cool, but do people really want to hide their identity? Only the bad guys need that.

Please link me to all your bank records, I want to know what you spend money on.

You don't have anything to hide do you?

It would also be cool to know if you hold enough assets to know if its worth breaking out a 5 dollar wrench.

[Globb0]

Any chance of XMR to catch up with ETH (in terms of price) this year? ETH have the smart contracts, but XMR have the privacy. It should be on top 10.
...

XMR is right now in position 22 in coinmarket cap, and it will be kind of hard to see in in the top 10 because its application is more complex than other altcoins.

The complexity of the monero core brings anonymity to the users but at the same time is hard to develop APPs with monero. Isn't like the other coins where you can make easy RPC calls to create sign and push the transactions. The point is, if we have developed something with Bitcoin RPC we can rise that knowledge to build something with LTC or DOGE, but not with monero.

And the anonymous fact is cool, but do people really want to hide their identity? Only the bad guys need that.

There was already a project to develop easier API's

[cAPSLOCK]

Any chance of XMR to catch up with ETH (in terms of price) this year? ETH have the smart contracts, but XMR have the privacy. It should be on top 10.

Also, check Haveno: https://github.com/haveno-dex/haveno
It is a exchange based on BISQ, which is being developed for Monero.

I personally think ETH is a badly designed project that makes the mistake of building a network protocol that will have to scale without using layers.  This has TWO main problems.  First of all, ETH can't scale.  Secondly, every harebrained idea anyone has to build some lunatic Rube Goldberg machine risks not only the funds in it, but the stability of the whole network.  And there are MULTIPLE proofs of this insecurity in the history of the asset.

Monero on the other hand is a rock solid crypto asset with privacy by default, and one of the only coins that has a mining algorithm where we do not have to compete with hashrate demands of other projects, and a hybrid blocksize that actually combines the strengths of both small and big blocks.

The two projects are not even in the same class of quality. 

The coinmarketcap ranking is more about herd psychology, and narrative quality than it is quality of the actual project.

The reality is ETH has one of the strongest narratives of any crypto asset platform, in some ways even better than Bitcoin's as long as you do not grade it on practicality.

Monero's narrative is also quite good.  But people do not want to bet on simple/strong and basic when they can bet on complex/shiny and whiz bang.

In the long run, however Monero will see greater and greater use since it actually DOES the ONE THING it is designed to do, and does it EXTREMELY WELL.

ETH, on the other hand keeps inventing new problems to not be able to solve.

In the short run, I think ETH will keep drawing in suckers, so the price is not done going up.  And who knows... maybe it will actually survive and continue being "used", or find an ACTUAL useful use case.  Also I could be wrong.

But there is NO WAY Monero does not rise.  It HAS TO.

[Millionero]

And the anonymous fact is cool, but do people really want to hide their identity? Only the bad guys need that.

Well I guess that makes me a bad guy LOL

[seoincorporation]

And the anonymous fact is cool, but do people really want to hide their identity? Only the bad guys need that.

Please link me to all your bank records, I want to know what you spend money on.

You don't have anything to hide do you?

It would also be cool to know if you hold enough assets to know if its worth breaking out a 5 dollar wrench.

I don't have anything to hide, but not for that reason I will be sharing sensitive data like that. Most of my spent Cryptos has been used for living and music, you know, house rent, food, service, and nice music instruments. So, nothing to hide.

...
There was already a project to develop easier API's

This is good to know, I will keep an eye on this because I like the technology behind monero and always want to develop something with it.

[elrippos friend]

   Good to see $400 again!  When $4000?  transactions booming, mining moving right along, won't be long.  2020 sucked ass on so many fronts, 2021 can't help but be better 

I think in June we hit €1500+ 

[DU18]

   Good to see $400 again!  When $4000?  transactions booming, mining moving right along, won't be long.  2020 sucked ass on so many fronts, 2021 can't help but be better 

I think in June we hit €1500+ 

Looking back on the last 2-3 years, in my opinion there were many unexpected factors that were able to lift the cryptocurrency market as it is today and in general many cryptocurrencies offer the best technology and are also supported by professionals and trusted. team is the most successful cryptocurrency. So far and we can see how Ethereum and BNB prices are now very high and this is the result of their team's hard work, in my opinion this can also be experienced by Monero if indeed their team remains focused on developing Monero well because we see there are many advantages offered by Monero to its users such as transaction privacy, hard wallets and the latest technology, therefore I am very confident and agree with the price prediction that you say is $ 1500 and if that happens, Monero will break the ATH price of $ 542 which occurred last 2018.

[explorer]

Holy transactions, Batman!  Lookin' good.

Anyone logged into poloniex in the last couple days?  I can log in but not navigate the site...

[cAPSLOCK]

Holy transactions, Batman!  Lookin' good.

Anyone logged into poloniex in the last couple days?  I can log in but not navigate the site...

Agreed.  And one cool thing to remember is the Monero transactions are ORGANIC.  There is no bullshit being loaded onto the blockchain. No silly extra data.  The blockchain is being used for exactly what it was DESIGNED to be used for, and the growth even on a LOG chart is impressive. 

Monero's transaction per day have been going up steadily now for TWO YEARS:


Monero's hashrate has been incresing strongly since the advent of RandomX:


Monero's Stock to flow model has Monero well under it's predicted current price (~1k) predicting 2x that by the end of the year (2k)


Metcalf's law, which predicts a price based on the number of transactions (compared to BTC) shows the price underpreforming the model by nearly 20x with over 6k being the model prediction, though it has been accurate in the past, including the past bull run.


We are going up gentlemen.  Nothing else makes any sense at all.

(Charts from https://bitinfocharts.com and https://moneroj.net )

[cAPSLOCK]

Well... and not to be a bucket of cold water, but the RSI is way overheated on pretty much ALL the long term time frames (6hr - 3d) with only the weekly (and up) having some room to run.

This is the 12h chart.  I think it's not impossible to see more UP, but i think a correction from here is more likley...  and we could even see a neeto C&H here if it does something like this:



I think my biggest question is what is driving this rally?  We are seeing some fairly good volume on this run, and it is counter, or ahead of almost all other alts.

It feels like there is some fairly big buying going on...  I do not assume a big sale went on at WHM?   It is hard to see what REAL volume is doing with all the goofy wash trading at the shady casinos exchanges.

Who is buying?

Looks to me like our handle is underway...