LTC on the move!  I know that mtgox was removed from the thread title, but it still has "BTC/USD". |
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I have just decided to shift half my USD from Bitstamp back to the safety of my EUR bank account.
It's safer, but certainly very very far from safe. Bank bail-ins are just around the corner. If the banking system collapses, then btc price will collapse too. Btc demand is fueled mostly by wires of fiat from bank accounts from speculators. Sure. Now. There is nothing stopping localbitcoins from becoming thee exchange tho. And I hear people are working on android wallets with built in localbitcoins functionality. Yes, it could theoretically work, if everyone who previously used exchanges were suddenly willing to walk around with suitcases full of $100,000s of cash and make exchanges at Starbucks, while avoiding getting arrested (for carrying/exchanging that much cash). However, I don't think would be the case. Sure, there will be some activity. There might be some increase in localbtc users, but the USD volume would likely be NOTHING compared to the volume previously at exchanges. It would not be enough to support current price levels, and price would fall. |
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Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.
Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline? Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose. I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012. Make the purple line have a similar start date as your other two lines, then see how the slope looks...I don't see why you arbitrarily picked a different date for it, unless I'm missing something. I chose it only because it has a lot of contact points. |
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I have just decided to shift half my USD from Bitstamp back to the safety of my EUR bank account.
It's safer, but certainly very very far from safe. Bank bail-ins are just around the corner. If the banking system collapses, then btc price will collapse too. Btc demand is fueled mostly by wires of fiat from bank accounts from speculators. |
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Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. <snip>
We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed.
Why are you using Mt Gox dip down to 1xx's to formulate your trendline? Barring a change in the US regulatory framework I think we will grind sideways with moments of volatility before slowly making our way back towards the ATH, at which point all hell will break loose. I'm not. The mtgox dip is a coincidence. The purple line is actually formed by connecting a bunch of contact points in 2011-2012. |
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When I read OP I was imaging he meant something like at least $550.
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I will commit to selling BTC for the fair price of $1,000,000 each, but this offer expires in late 2016. Seriously? OK...late 2017, but this is your last chance.  Oh ok well when btc is trading at $10,000,000 in early 2016, you better stick with this committment. |
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Everyone keeps talking about this "trend line" (im guilty of it too), but what if our trendlines are actually wrong. They are all drawn after the fact, arbitrarily, using the latest data, which may be skewed high or low if we are currently at a very high or low point. What if the price doesnt actually follow that trendline, or more importantly what if our slope of the trendline is completely wrong? The correct trendline and the correct slope would be revealed only after a major price correction (like 2011) and then we'd follow the new trendline. For example, it could be like this (in purple):   We all think the blue/green is the real trendline but then it ends up actually being the purple one after a devastating correction (a REAL bear market) is revealed. |
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This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.
Are investors losing their passion or just keeping their money off the books.... b/c there could still be big investors planning to come into the bitcoin space, but NOT showing their cards at the moment... no? You can speculate about 'big investors not showing their cards' with ANY bid, even with a large bid they can still be there. I'd much rather speculate about them being there with a 100M USD order book than a 12M USD order book - there would probably be more of them too. Speculating about something I can't see and speculating about sneaky buyers suddenly making an appearance to save me from falling off a cliff is not how I like to trade. Also, the tiny order book represents a lack of maturity in the current market. There should be more there whether there are hidden buyers or not. |
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Buy when everybody is pessimistic.
We might not be there yet but it's close. How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN. We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not. or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again. Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that. Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle". The 2011 bubble saw an increase from 10 cents to 32 dollars! Proportionally speaking, the 18 month consolidation period before the next rally roughly equates to a three month consolidation period of about three to five months after a ramp from ~$150 to $1163. We are right on schedule. What if the ramp was not from $150 to $1163, but from $15 to $1163, and there were 5 months in 2013 as an "intermission". |
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Buy when everybody is pessimistic.
We might not be there yet but it's close. How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN. We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not. or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again. Dead cat bounce speculation is part of the cycle too. If Bitcoin was going to fail for any reason other than a superior technology rendering it obsolete, it would have failed by now. Anything else only delays without preventing the next ramp. Chinese and Russian hostility to crypto will have the effect of causing western policy makers to support it. The enemy of my enemy and all that. Bitcoin doesn't need to "fail" for it to be grossly overpriced by speculators and for the speculation bubble to deflate. Refer to 2011. Think of it as a "supercycle". |
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Is anyone considering that a powerful operation is dead set on destroying the value of bitcoin once an for all? International effort would be a piece of cake.
Happy st paddy's
Here's the skinny: 2 out of 3 of the world's superpowers (Russia and China) are against Bitcoin. This leaves only the Unites States left to really support Bitcoin and set an authoritative precedent in the world. Also ,exchanges are dropping like flies. This year Bitcoin is actually experiencing a "reverse adoption" like never before (except maybe 2011) which is outweighing the adoption. The only hope left is that the United States continues to embrace Botcoin and that these exchanges start opening in New York in June. If I see that this is not going to happen then I will be leaving. Tera. Calm down. Do you even listen to yourself sometimes? Russia and China don't lead anything anywhere. They are not world leaders. However, Germany, if they were to start promoting bitcoin would be a world leader, because of their influence in Europe. United Kingdom, same. Saudi Arabia, because of their influence in the Middle East. Hong Kong, because of their influence in Asia. You basically pick the "axis of evil" and act like the fact that these countries (on, noos we left out the bitcoin unfriendly North Korea!) are anti-bitcoin is some sort of game changer. Not only that but you set a deadline of June. Lol. Ok. If you do leave, don't let the door hit you on the way out. But you know, I know, the american people know, and Bob Dole knows you aren't going anywhere. Please replace "negativity", "positivity", etc with "speculation". Prices can move in two directions, and I am simply speculating about which way they could move based on certain events. There aren't many emotions involved. |
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Buy when everybody is pessimistic.
We might not be there yet but it's close. How can we be close to pessimistic? Bitcoin was $100 a year ago. True despair-pessimism is a long WAY DOWN. We've been through so many of these rally/corrections that we've learned to front-run the cycle, so it won't go that far down. It always seems different this time but in hindsight it's not. or... the people who are front-running the "cycle" (which is an imaginary thing actually) are the only reason the price is as high as it is now, and this is just a dead cat bounce before it goes down again. |
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Now we need that "never seen before" bubble chart to put these "it might never go back up" talk in the time frame on it There's also always THIS "never before seen" chart to show too:  It might not mean "btc is never going up" but is enough to justify withdrawing and coming back later. |
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In Bitfinex's latest statement, they claim their wire transfer withdrawal is the cheapest and fastest in the industry; even more so than Bitstamp. Is this true? Does anyone have any experience with this? I was under the impression that Bitstamp was the only reputable place to even submit a withdrawal and that I shouldn't even try to withdraw via another exchange. But it would be really nice if I COULD withdraw from Bitfinex because most of my fiat is already there and I wouldn't have to buy btc and send it to Bitstamp and sell.
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Is anyone considering that a powerful operation is dead set on destroying the value of bitcoin once an for all? International effort would be a piece of cake.
Happy st paddy's
Here's the skinny: 2 out of 3 of the world's superpowers (Russia and China) are against Bitcoin. This leaves only the Unites States left to really support Bitcoin and set an authoritative precedent in the world. Also ,exchanges are dropping like flies. This year Bitcoin is actually experiencing a "reverse adoption" like never before (except maybe 2011) which is outweighing the adoption. The only hope left is that the United States continues to embrace Botcoin and that these exchanges start opening in New York in June. If I see that this is not going to happen then I will be leaving. |
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This is actually the worst order book (ratio) I have ever seen in Bitcoin. All of the gox orderbooks in apr-jul 2013 even at their worst looked better than this.
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I will always have bitcoins, because I have a specific cold storage and altcoin-trading allocation of btc that I have committed to and am willing to lose. Every time I trade and a make a profit, I add some of the profits to this allocation.
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That's a lot of funds to trust with RealSolid...
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I couldn't decide whether or not I wanted to stay in the btc markets or withdraw everything in fiat, so I made a compromise: I made so many profitable trades in the past 2 months that I doubled, or "cloned" my funds (in terms of fiat) value. Now I've taken one clone and left it in the btc market and taken the other clone and withdrawn it in fiat. So I can pretend like nothing happened and I can have my cake and eat it too. Here is how my funds are currently diversified:
-----the 50% btc:
15% in cold storage
10% on altcoin exchanges
(So at least half of my btc funds are long at all times, unless I short on bfx)
25% on bfx to trade btc/usd charts
-----the 50% fiat:
15% to pay my taxes
5% in precious metals
15% in cash reserves in a bank account - enough to pay living expenses for a year and cover the unexpected
15% in a brokerage account to daytrade forex, futures/commidities, options, and stocks
Hopefully with the brokerage account I will be able to take out most of my trading urges there (with all the gigantic volumes) and make money to put IN to the btc markets rather than constantly sucking money out of the btc markets like people are accusing me of.
You guys make everything seem so black and white. You don't have to do that. You can split your funds up and do both. Diversification is good.
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