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The flow of bullish news is run out of steam and it seems as if the painful 3 week consolidation is finally over hopefully and we can resume trading.
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Here is how an EW analyst might see the future. (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart). I could try to rationalize the peak with something like ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'.
Tera, would another hypothetical peak by the end of the year (let's assume 4,000) change your EW-analysis? IMO both could happen, your chart is as possible as yet another peak by the end of the year. I'd be fine with both, because both would bring me some severe gains and even the "bearish" hypothesis of bitcoin peaking at 20,000 would bring bitcoin to the brink of mass adoption. Most capital of the "investment hodlers" would be out by then, affirming the theory that price must go down afterwards, but that will be the point, where mass adoption could make up for that. 4,000 could be a minor peak of a minor wave within the larger wave to 20,000. for example $266 was a minor peak and $1100 was a major peak. Edit: I just saw "by the end of the year". I guess if that happened I would have to come up with a new analysis. |
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 Here is how an EW analyst might see the future. (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart). I could try to rationalize the peak with something like ' all governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply 'competition from something better'. |
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Was it ever that boring  Now that is a stable currency but the price is too low  IMO if the Gox situation gets resolved, and they'll really take over and refund people, the price will go up. There's too much uncertainty in the air right now. How could Gox ever possibly get resolved? Anyways, I think the market is over it at this point. Looking at the long term charts we've bottomed out, and I can feel the slow uptrend coming on. The market is over the sentiment of mtgox, however if the 800,000 goxcoins actually get dumped on the market, it would certainly not be over the physical weight of the selling pressure of those coins - it would be devastating. The gox situation may not ever be 'resolved' in the case of refunding its creditors. However, if the mtgox site was relaunched under new management, it may help the market due to increased exchanges/liquidity, and because mtgox is still the front page of bitcoin in the eye of most of the general public. The average person goes to mtgox.com to buy their first bitcoin, sees all the shenanigans, and decide they don't want to bother with bitcoin anymore. So fixing that would help. |
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current price $440 * x10,000 multiple projection = $4,400,000 target price
4,400,000 x 21,000,000 coins = $92,400,000,000,000 ($92.4 trillion) target market cap
Now we are talking 30 times the market cap of google, 10,000 times the market cap of western union, 80 times the amount of USD currently in circulation, and 140% of the current world GDP.
This hefty figure has something to do with the population of the world (7bn) for some reason as if everyone was going to be a bitcoin user. Now let's run that figure:
92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person
repetelia's assertion is that bitcoin will be greater than the world gdp and that the average person in the entire world will hold $13,200 worth of bitcoins. This average spans accross every single person, including those who don't have any money, don't have computers or the internet, live in third world countries, aren't literate, or can't understand technology.
What would your estimate be?  When I look at bitcoin's long term chart, I see an elliot wave. Wave 1 went to $32. Wave 3 went to $1100. Wave 5 may go to $20,000 (briefly before it crashes into wave a). I don't know what'll happen after that. I don't think the technology is powerful enough to be trusted with or to handle the type of adoption rpetelia has in mind or anything close. |
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current price $440 * x10,000 multiple projection = $4,400,000 target price
4,400,000 x 21,000,000 coins = $92,400,000,000,000 ($92.4 trillion) target market cap
Now we are talking 30 edit: 300 times the market cap of google, 10,000 times the market cap of western union, 80 times the amount of USD currently in circulation, and 140% of the current world GDP.
This hefty figure has something to do with the population of the world (7bn) for some reason as if everyone was going to be a bitcoin user. Now let's run that figure:
92,400,000,000,000 / 7,000,000,000 = $13,200 USD per person
repetelia's assertion is that bitcoin will be greater than the world gdp and that the average person in the entire world will hold $13,200 worth of bitcoins. This average spans accross every single person, including those who don't have any money, don't have computers or the internet, live in third world countries, aren't literate, or can't understand technology.
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Maybe when their government currencies fail and they have to use bitcoins.
They will still complain though and say that government currencies were the reason for the good ol' days. That bitcoin ruined all of that.
When 'government currencies fail', there will be an apocalypse, you will have much more to worry about than money/investing, and bitcoin will not save you. Nobody should be hoping for this - be careful what you wish for. People in Zimbabwe would beg to differ. I think when we're talking about USD, that is significantly different because USD is basically the reserve currency of the entire world. |
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I'm suspecting that if there is another big cycle of down action, the associated 'news' may not even be based on China. For example in the Feb-Mar cycle, the 'news' was all about Mtgox. Then the Apr cycle was about China. So maybe a next one would have something to do with the U.S. or with the USD exchanges, or some giant block of coins from the government or hackers being dumped. Chinese news seems to have a weak momentum now.
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Maybe when their government currencies fail and they have to use bitcoins.
They will still complain though and say that government currencies were the reason for the good ol' days. That bitcoin ruined all of that.
When 'government currencies fail', there will be an apocalypse, you will have much more to worry about than money/investing, and bitcoin will not save you. Nobody should be hoping for this - be careful what you wish for. |
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I lost 1k usd at bitfloor attempting to withdraw right before they closed. I did the refund process later and did not get my refund and no responses to emails.
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I thought a bear like TERA would be selling, not holding  If you only knew how much fiat I've already cashed out, you would understand. Anyway let's keep this in the Speculation forum. Something else that is off-topic here is the viability of brainwallets. I simply want to know if the process of creating a brainwallet requires that it be tested with transactions (separate question for both TO and FROM) |
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Try finding a pattern in all of your failed trades, and not repeating it. High volume is generally a good time to take a position.
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What is wrong with using sha256? If the hashing algorithm on brainwallet.org changes to something else, I can still use a sha256 script from somewhere else. It is a fairly common hashing algorithm and I dont have to rely on the tool on brainwallet.org.
using sha is fine to convert your own sentance into your own bases for making a privkey. as long as you take these precautions 1. you dont forget your own process (sentance->sha->privkey EG if you need to chop off characters at the start, end to make your sha'd sentence into a key) 2. you dont rely on other peoples process as they may change (research how someone used bitaddress.org a couple years ago and now using a different browser or the version updated that his sentence no longer produces the same privkey) 3. try not to get amnesia during your holocaust/coma its simpler to find a landmark.. dig a hole. and put a heatproof box with a metal sheath that has a privkey engraved into it.. if a holocaust occured that had enough heat to melt the metal underground.. loss of bitcoins would be the last thing on your mind. brain wallets should be short term, (think amnesia, alzheimer's or simply forgetting due to not being in long term memory) but if I got amnesia, wouldn't I forget the password to the encrypted hardware wallet or the location where I hid it anyway? |
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Why do people think they know what is going on in Satoshi's mind, and assume bitcoin was his libertarian scheme to overthrow the fed? What if he was just a genius coder who launched an awesome payments system and got rich, staying anonymous to not get robbed.
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Most of the criticisms of TA in Bitcoin are actually criticisms of the TA posted by amateurs who didn't actually know what they were doing.
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Well, here in the US, I don't expect any problems, but I guess we'll find out soon. I mean, certainly I wouldn't be the first person to test Coinbase's $50,000 limit, right? And since they have already done KYC, it shouldn't be a problem, should it?
i tried to take out 40k via coinbase in december and failed. but the larger point is that even if coinbase does not fail, or you use local exchange, whatever, then trying to move the fiat thereafter is not necessarily going to work well. you may be better off spending btc. This is why I'm buying a substantial amount of btc before my trading break rather than cashing everything out and buying back in the trend reversal - the risk of the two fiat transactions - cashing out and depositing back in, will outweigh the gain on the trade of whatever is left of the downtrend at this point. Who knows if... by that point maybe my bank will have put some block on bitcoin exchanges and I won't even be able to get back in as it's breaking out. |
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Looking at both sides in the eternal dilemma: if the common sentiment is that we all are waiting for a drop on Chinese news, the drop might not happen at all.
OTOH: there is about one new r/bitcoin subscriber every half hour today, which is not good enough. Also Google Trends index for "bitcoin" is at the lowest in its 90 days and still trending down, with the two biggest countries being Cyprus (I assume because NeoBee fuckup) and Estonia (I assume because of rpietila's purchase in the local newspapers).
I have been hearing this type of logic all the way since $800 - "since everyone is expecting a drop, it won't happen", yet it does. There are forces other than sentiment in the market - like the weight of millions of coins. |
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Don't use a brainwallet. That's terrible. Use a real wallet, armory or electrum offline.
Can you tell me what is bad about a brainwallet or a paper wallet assuming I am using it offline on tails and creating the key in a much more complicated way than their SHA256(passphrase). using a brain wallet involves turning natural words into a code. before then encrypting it using standard bitcoin encryption protocols. this brain wallet convertion method may change, or you may mis-spell the words (EG Some instead of some). the best solution is to put a verified/clean bitcoin software onto a memory stick. then install onto a clean computer without the internet. and generate private keys from this. DO NOT rely on brain wallets or wallets that your a keyphrase/seed to generate private keys. as i said before the conversion from phrases into a private key may change in the future. ONLY store actual proper bitcoin private keys. The idea here is that I do NOT want to maintain any hardware or anything physical to hold my bitcoins. I want to know that if there is a nuclear explosion or everything of mine is stolen/hacked/deleted/seized/etc, hardware is lost/stolen/fried, or i go into a coma for the next 5 years, I will still have my bitcoins. I want to have no worries at all. That is why I am going for a brain-wallet-type solution. What is wrong with using sha256? If the hashing algorithm on brainwallet.org changes to something else, I can still use a sha256 script from somewhere else. It is a fairly common hashing algorithm and I dont have to rely on the tool on brainwallet.org. |
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and creating the key in a much more complicated way than their SHA256(passphrase).
can you eleborate? passing through multiple hashes and using salts for example my key could be sha256('phrase1'+sha256('phrase2'+sha256('phrase3'))) or something more creative than that where portions of the hashes are removed. I've made several cold storage keys (Well not nearly as many as Casascius!) and several of the ones I have made were duds. The way I test them (there's probably a better way) is to send a few microbitcoins to them and then look up the address on the blockchain. If you find the address on the blockchain it's usually good. If it doesn't show up then it's not.
Is there a chance that this could work but then when you go to send, sending would not work? |
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That SEC article was warning about people who promote investments as being a gauranteed high return and risk free. Well bitcoin bulls go even one step further than this, to tell you that holding cash itself is risky.
Cash is not risky. You are guaranteed to lose, and the guarantee is backed by the full coercive force of the largest government the world has ever seen. Not even gold is a guaranteed winner every year, because it is only backed by free market. Let me reprhrase this then... Bitcoin bulls go one step further to tell you not only is Bitcoin risk-free but that if you aren't holding bitcoins, you are taking a risk because holding fiat is risky and bitcoin is clearly the way out of that risk. So bitcoin is not only risk free, but acts as an inverse risk. It is the infallible investment made in heaven and you you need to buy buy buy or die. They are not only going to quell your fears about holding bitcoin but make you fear NOT holding bitcoin. Because bitcoin is the solution for the apocalypse and when the system fails, bitcoiners will become filthy rich. It is the DESTINY. Bitcoin is like a rapture and you need to be on board or be left to perish. Lately I've been seeing so much more complaining about the "bitcoin cultists" than actual cultists. Are you sure they actually exist? Where are those guys? I would like to coin a new term: Bitcoin cultist cultists (aka. BCC) - seeing raving bitcoin cultists everywhere and being convinced they will destroy everything with their unbridled optimism and faith I think they're referring to rpietela and his disciples. |
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