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2181  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 09:55:34 AM
Volume is getting lower and lower at Gox.

We may soon have to troll on the "Wall Observer - Bitstamp wall movement tracker - Hardcore" thread?

After the painfully verification/trust process at Gox, it would be major PITA to go through the same process with another exchange - but anyhow we really need to get rid of MtGox's dangerous centralization.

I just hope that better infrastructure arrives ASAP, I'm still not loving Bitstamp too much, and liquidity is still too low (but it is improving).



It looks to me like the price gap between Gox & Bitstamp is closing. Gox is happily soaking up all the "returning asks". Once we are close to parity, the spring will be ready to uncoil...

For bulls only (bears stop reading NOW)

((Stop reading you naughty bear..))

Volume is almost at record lows for 2013.
But two days were also exceptionally low:
March 17th at 14k
April 6th at 18k

Both followed by 40+% gains in the next few days...
2182  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin 2013: The Future of Payments - San Jose, CA - May 17-19, 2013 on: May 21, 2013, 09:24:53 AM
Did you go to the same conference, or killed time instead at the comic convention next door?
2183  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The First Political Zone to Officially Recognize Cryptocoins on: May 21, 2013, 07:16:40 AM
OP can't be serious if he says he was talking at the conference but the identity of his "political zone" is still a mystery.


I'm pretty sure someone said it's Nicaragua

Hmm. But is there anything issued by the government mentioning Bitcoin?


He said he can't make it public until everything is finalized......

And he doesn't really seem like trying to impress people....

Seriously, someone went to give a talk at the conference about a Bitcoin special zone, and all we can get now is just hearsay? Really?

Yes, it's like one of those TV documentaries about the Bigfoot where they are going to do DNA tests on skin and hair samples, but by the end of it you still haven't learned anything, and the subject is as opaque as ever.
2184  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The First Political Zone to Officially Recognize Cryptocoins on: May 21, 2013, 07:08:06 AM
OP can't be serious if he says he was talking at the conference but the identity of his "political zone" is still a mystery.


I'm pretty sure someone said it's Nicaragua

Hmm. But is there anything issued by the government mentioning Bitcoin?
2185  Other / Off-topic / Re: What is Socialism? on: May 21, 2013, 07:03:42 AM
FinShaggy. What is the significance of your Indus Valley seal?
2186  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The First Political Zone to Officially Recognize Cryptocoins on: May 21, 2013, 07:01:01 AM
OP can't be serious if he says he was talking at the conference but the identity of his "political zone" is still a mystery.
2187  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: MtGox spot price no longer "real" price of BTC? on: May 21, 2013, 06:44:14 AM
Looking at this thread, people were discussing a persistent $4 difference between gox and bitstamp - a month ago.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=182568.msg1913404#msg1913404

Not sure about Campbx then.
2188  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Identity of Satoshi Nakamoto is known on: May 21, 2013, 05:36:04 AM
As probably the only forum member to have actually met Shinichi Mochizuki, I can assure you that he isn't Satoshi. Shinichi is a genius without bounds as evident by his work on the ABC conjecture; however, he seems far more interested in Teichmüller theory than monetary policy. Number theorists don't instantly make good cryptographers. Now if someone asserted Satoshi is Wenbo Mao or Dan Boneh, I'd be far more inclined to believe them.

Didn't see this before. Thanks for the info, good enough for me.
2189  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 02:31:43 AM
(...)gox volume for Saturday was 22k, Sunday 20k, both extremely low. However, weekend can be low. If Monday volume not nearer 60k then grab the worry beads.

Still no worry beads, Solex?


That site has only been going a few days, and we need those stats going back a couple of weeks.
Obviously any one day could have more people hitting bids than asks while the market is fairly static.
2190  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 01:57:45 AM

Absolutely. But one could say, we already left the triangle due to the side drift and there was no huge move. But bid/ask sum is still rising, what makes it somehow even more explosive. Your chart illustrates another thing pretty well. The price bounced on the trendline 16. april - 03. may on 15. may again. Pretty strong, I'd say.




Agreed.

frozenlock, the area from may 3rd onward. Smart TA guy like you can see these things without the lines being drawn!
2191  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 12:13:19 AM
Back on topic. The daily chart looks to have a bullish triangle with higher lows. Breakout coming, anyone?


2192  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: full picture on US MSB regs, state and federal on: May 20, 2013, 11:58:03 PM
agentbluesceen, I apologize if I was excessively flippant, but I do believe that your credit-based definition of a bitcoin unit is wholly incorrect. However, many people have been confused about its status, partly because bitcoins are/have been evolving into money as an organic process since 2009.

I urge you to take the time to read the following thesis which considers the term "commodity-money", but recognizes that bitcoin is on the road to becoming a fully-fledged currency.

http://dev.economicsofbitcoin.com/mastersthesis/mastersthesis-surda-2012-11-19b.pdf

In fact I think it has reached the point where it is clearly a powerful new type of money with inbuilt currency and payments systems.
2193  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Future BTC Conference on: May 20, 2013, 11:02:13 PM
Why did they make people pay? That doesn't make sense.

$300 attendance fee was probably just about right. A conference of this type is intended to build up the network of the bitcoiner community, get business people talking to each other about ideas and projects, problems and solutions in bit-commerce. Concrete business deals would get struck.

A cheap event would allow in many people who are interested but never plan to do anything constructive. They would learn, but that can be done remotely, online.

Signal not noise!

2194  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: full picture on US MSB regs, state and federal on: May 20, 2013, 09:59:18 PM
BTC is an Over the Counter Credit Swap Derivative  (OCD) in the eyes of the law. You can't regulate it without stepping on some very very TBTF bankstering toes.


A bitcoin is an Over the Counter (OTC) Credit-Swap (funded Credit Default Swap or fCDS).

To you, it is only worth what the last guy sold it to you for and made off with. You funded "his" credit for it and the next guy (is assumed to be willing to) fund yours! It is a funded credit derivative backed by nothing but faith.(in a "next guy")

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_Futures_Modernization_Act_of_2000

The reason Bitcoins/Altcoin tokens are legal is because they are OTC derivatives. Otherwise they would be a Ponzi scheme.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=175708.msg1832923#msg1832923


2195  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Interest in a P2P Exchange on: May 20, 2013, 09:54:06 PM
Quote
ipple will be completely decentralized.  It is not designed to be a 'single entity', and though there will be nodes that will be regulated -- there will be those which will not.  The final project is however not yet complete, though they must be getting close by now.

I've asked the Ripple community several time to record a lecture for the Bitcoin Education Project on how ripple works and explain how to conduct commerce. They have never replied back. I really hate being ignored. Yet, until I get a detailed explanation on Ripple, I honestly don't know if what you are saying is completely correct.

If this project is to be permanently derailed then the way to do it is by trying to get it done via Ripple.


This is the best outline solution thus far.
2196  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 09:50:41 PM
A friend in China mentioned today there's growing curiosity about BTC there after it was featured this weekend on CCTV.  It's made it to the daily hot topic on sina weibo.  Anyone want to speculate on whether/when this might be reflected in the exchanges?

Sure : It will make no difference whatsoever.

That is about as extreme as saying it will cause the price to explode to $10,000. I just don't see how advertising to millions or potentially billions of people will have no effect???

It had pretty much no difference the first time hit hit the TV in China.

There was a little price action based on the hype with money already on the exchanges but that soon died out.

The thing that struck me this time is that he said it was a hot topic on weibo.  Does anyone know if that was the case after the earlier mentions on CCTV?

Chinese downloads of the Bitcoin software spiked after the 1st CCTV coverage:
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/timeline?dates=2013-05-01+to+2013-05-19

They are top country this month:
http://sourceforge.net/projects/bitcoin/files/stats/map?dates=2013-05-01%20to%202013-05-19
2197  Economy / Speculation / Re: Mt. Gox is an unlicensed money exchanger dealing in "crypto-currency." on: May 20, 2013, 09:39:05 PM
Good analysis.

Questions. What is the track record of resolution of similar situations with other companies? Can Mutum apply for MSB status, quickly, retrospectively, and expect to get it? Or have they lost their chance and their US operation will remain somewhat crippled?
2198  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Theymos: What the fuck is up with BFL and TradeFortress? on: May 20, 2013, 09:24:39 PM
I think TF should definitely pay back those hundreds of bitcoins in the time he specified in the contracts. Oh wait, he didn't specify a date!

One of the most important corallaries to Murphy's Law is this:
The hidden flaw never remains so.

I can't believe this. Ripple is an IOU trading system where the IOUs have no settlement date?! How on earth is it working at all? Is there any real business being transacted, or is it just a testing ground for enthusiasts?

I agree that no one can be called a scammer just because they receive something and issue an IOU for it unless they break the terms for settlement. If there are no terms for settlement then, according to the English language, the quantum of the transaction is a gift, and that is the end of the matter.
2199  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: World War III and BTC on: May 20, 2013, 11:19:37 AM
I think you will find that wars have been raging somewhere in the world, continuously, since Julius Caesar sat in the Roman Senate.

Edit: remembered seeing this:
http://kottke.org/12/09/1000-years-of-war-in-5-minutes
2200  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: Exchange traffic plummeting across exchanges and currencies on: May 20, 2013, 11:14:12 AM
The calm before the storm.
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