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2221  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 11:49:44 AM
JoelKatz,

 Your eloquent verbosity in defending your offensive position is enlightening.
I'm happy to admit my mistakes, really. Just point them out to me.
2222  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 11:42:18 AM
So let us just say we are on a desert island and we use force... What happens if the people we use force against calls the police? Still on the desert island??
That's the risk you have to consider when you have a problem that the legal system refuses to solve. You may have the absolute moral right to use force, but it can still be (and usually is) very foolish to do so.
2223  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 11:39:42 AM
he didnt even take it ,it was voluntarily given to him
There's no difference. If you walk into a candy store and say "I'd like a Hershey's bar" and he hands it to you and you walk out with it without paying, it's still theft. The "it was voluntarily given to me" argument won't fly.

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he never said it was risk free either or did he ?
It wouldn't matter. No risks were disclosed. Certainly it was never disclosed that there was a risk that he would just walk off with everyone's money and that was a risk his lenders had to accept as a legitimate investment risk.

If I hire someone to clean my house and he steals my jewelry, can he argue "I never said there was no risk I would steal. When you hire someone to work in your house, you willingly take the risk they might steal from you." Sorry, that fails the giggle test.

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it might not even be a police issue ,more like a civil matter
if you loan someone something and they dont pay back its
probably tough shit
If someone borrows money with no intent of repaying it or solicits investment with no intent to actually invest it, that's a criminal matter. (Also civil, but definitely criminal.)

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nobody has a contract or witnesses or even a proper identity
and so far ive seen about 3  guys that people think is Pirate
That's true. We'll have to see if anyone, private or government, cares enough to investigate.

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pretty well executed  crime by the looks of things and will probably
get messy if pirate fcuks everyone and splits with the money
I got lots of popcorn.
2224  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 11:27:26 AM
We will only know if someone will use violence and they get caught?
We'll know if people attempt to get the authorities involved. Either they'll succeed, and then we're not on a desert island, or they'll fail, and then we are.

What are they going to do, complain that a man took their Internet moneys? It would be regarded by the police as the equivalent of stealing someone's NX points or ISK. They'll set the matter aside and we're still screwed.
If that happens, then we live on a desert island.
2225  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Pirate Runs: The Danger of one entity with 500K BTC on: August 27, 2012, 11:25:53 AM
If someone pushed BTC up to 12 from an average of 10, even rational actors have no way of knowing whether that was a new guy buying into BTC OR a manipulator moving temporarily out of BTC to change the price.
That is correct. The one advantage that a manipulator has is that he knows the timing and amounts of his manipulations.

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See even when the price was pushed to 15.40 recently by euphoria it was a very weak price and collapsed at a few sells - even if you had orchestrated that you would not have been able to sell that many coins at that price.
The price always come back much more easily than it can be pushed. The further the price gets from where it's going back, the more you pay for each Bitcoin you buy or sell to push it further and the bigger the walls you have to break down.

And this is the really important thing -- if you're trying to push the price of Bitcoin from $10 to $9, a well-financed person can make you sell as many bitcoins at $9.10 as he can afford to buy. And any number of people can each do this to you with you taking losses against each one of them. And then if someone panic sells, you'll have to fight them for the $9 Bitcoins. It's never worked.

2226  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: The sorry and thank you Pirateat40 thread on: August 27, 2012, 11:22:10 AM
Now what we disagree on is that for you, at some points Pirate would have buy his debt back instead of letting the loan go. I do'nt see why. I can see how when you make several % a week of profit on an amount of several hundreds of thousands of btc, you don't see the point to buying back your debt (which would reduce your volume and your profit).
I don't see why it would reduce either your volume or your profit. Also, I don't see why it necessitates buying debt at way above market rates. Also, I cannot comprehend how any legitimate business would make an offer that would only be accepted by someone who would also respond to an offer that was an obvious Ponzi scheme. And those are really just the three most obvious flaws in such an explanation. It falls apart in so many places.
2227  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 11:18:23 AM
We will only know if someone will use violence and they get caught?
We'll know if people attempt to get the authorities involved. Either they'll succeed, and then we're not on a desert island, or they'll fail, and then we are.
2228  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: The sorry and thank you Pirateat40 thread on: August 27, 2012, 11:06:33 AM
Doesnt matter. Can you perhaps make 10% commission on some deals? Sure. Could it make sense to borrow bitcoins to allow you to conduct such business and get started? Sure. But it you are making such windfall profits trading btc, you will not keep lending more and more while compounding your costs,  instead as your own capital grows you will pay back your loans and keep your profits. So this is not a reasonable explanation of what pirate did. If he could make 100s of 1000s btc profits for his investors, he could make them for himself and he wouldnt need anyone to lend him a bloody thing.
Exactly. Any explanation that doesn't explain why Pirate borrows at 3,600% effectively equates to "Pirate is so rich he can give money away, and he chooses to give money away only to people who would fall for a Ponzi scheme".

You asked me how could one make a great return. I'm not even talking about pirate here
Oh, okay. Then we agree. I thought you were trying to explain how I was wrong about Pirate.

Obviously, "Pirate has some secret way to make super-high returns and because he's a nice guy, he shares that money with people who would invest in something that looks exactly like a Ponzi scheme" is silly. So this doesn't explain what Pirate is doing.
2229  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: August 27, 2012, 10:59:33 AM
It's not just spending money, it's spending money that was just made up out of thin air.  Since the federal reserve (which is neither federal, nor a reserve) was instated, the US dollar has lost 95%+ of its value.  That's called inflation.  It comes about by making money out of thin air.  Politicians love it because they can spend it to buy votes and future generations pay for it.  
The Federal reserve was created to stabilize the value of the US dollar. Prior to the creation of the Federal reserve, the dollar was bouncing up and down by 30% or so in 40 year cycles. Since the creation of the Federal reserve, the dollar has lost value consistently, halving in value every 30 years or so.

Of course, this doesn't prove anything's wrong with the Federal reserve. In fact, if anything, it shows that we need a few more Federal reserves to stabilize the dollar as one hasn't stabilized it nearly enough.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dollar_value_chart.gif
2230  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 10:53:59 AM
Are we on a desert island?
I don't think we know that yet. We'll have to wait and see.
2231  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: The sorry and thank you Pirateat40 thread on: August 27, 2012, 10:33:00 AM
Doesnt matter. Can you perhaps make 10% commission on some deals? Sure. Could it make sense to borrow bitcoins to allow you to conduct such business and get started? Sure. But it you are making such windfall profits trading btc, you will not keep lending more and more while compounding your costs,  instead as your own capital grows you will pay back your loans and keep your profits. So this is not a reasonable explanation of what pirate did. If he could make 100s of 1000s btc profits for his investors, he could make them for himself and he wouldnt need anyone to lend him a bloody thing.
Exactly. Any explanation that doesn't explain why Pirate borrows at 3,600% effectively equates to "Pirate is so rich he can give money away, and he chooses to give money away only to people who would fall for a Ponzi scheme".
2232  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Did pirate default? IRC Chat Log inside!! on: August 27, 2012, 10:08:22 AM
I must be slow today. I'm not following this at all. What new debt can he be selling? Do you see others lining up to lend him more? Are there new Pirate securities being issued? What new money is rolling in?
Pirate debt is still selling for more than 0. Pirate can create as much Pirate debt as he wants at a cost of zero to him. Until Pirate debt is completely worthless, Pirate has no incentive to stop selling his own debt.

Say I decided to burn my reputation to make as much money as possible. I would ask for loans, maybe pay some people back to build my reputation, and so on. When would I quit? I would quit as soon as my debt was worthless. So long as I could continue to trade IOUs for bitcoins, why would I stop? Pirate IOUs still trade for bitcoins, so why would he stop?

He can't flood the market by trying to sell all his debt at once. So he needs a week or two to sell off as much as he can to as many new suckers as he can find.
2233  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: The sorry and thank you Pirateat40 thread on: August 27, 2012, 10:04:06 AM
So yes you can make 10% a week on a capital, miore on that later.
Please, explain how you can make 10% a week by borrowing at 3,600%.

No I didn't mean 10% on top of a loan, but 10% on a capital.
Please, explain you how can make 10% on capital by borrowing at 3,600%. If Pirate doesn't need to borrow at 3,600%, why in the heck is he doing it? Because he likes wasting a buttload of money?

Actually, forget it. Just explain it to me so that I'll understand it and then I'll (probably) point out how it can't possibly make sense with respect to Pirate. (Or just look in the other threads where I did exactly that after people suggested possible ways.)
2234  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 09:59:06 AM
Um no. People using violence to get their coins back from a crook is not self-defense. Their coins were gone the moment they suspended their common sense and were engulfed by their own greed. Pirate forced no one to give him their coins, and he never gave anyone anywhere near a plausible reason as to why his scheme should work as promised. Pirate didn't invent the Ponzi scheme so everyone here should have known better. It's the victims greed that committed the crime.
I disagree completely. Pirate's culpability has no effect on his victims' culpability and vice versa. Each is fully responsible for their own actions and the consequences of them.

And yes, using violence to get stolen property back from a thief is self-defense. In a civilized society, within the scope of operation of its legal and police systems, one give's up one's right to the use of self-defense in non-emergency situations. But where those systems don't apply, one still has it.

If you and I were stranded on a desert island, I would fully have the right to use force to defend my property from you, including taking it back from you if you had stolen it. Defense of one's property is self-defense.
2235  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: The sorry and thank you Pirateat40 thread on: August 27, 2012, 09:56:05 AM
So yes you can make 10% a week on a capital, miore on that later.
Please, explain how you can make 10% a week by borrowing at 3,600%. I find that very, very hard to believe, but if you have some evidence, I'm perfectly willing to listen. Otherwise, you're basically just saying "it's possible somehow".
2236  Other / Meta / Re: Be Reasonable. Please! Or About Logical Fallacies. on: August 27, 2012, 09:48:31 AM

The pirateat40's opponents have called this BS and reasonably asserted that pirate is running a ponzi scheme based on logical reasoning and common sense.

Please explain to me how this statement is remotely objective in any sense whatsoever. "reasonably"? "common sense"?
It is the only possibility known that explains all the available evidence. If you know of another possible explanation, please tell us what it is.

When you have a set of facts, one explanation that covers them perfectly, that has always been the correct explanation for that set of facts, no other explanation is known, and people who would know another explanation if there is one refuse to provide one, that is sufficient to accept the explanation.

I turn on my light switch and my light comes on. I accept the explanation that electricity from the power company made it come on. That has always been the explanation before. And that case is even weaker, because I can think of other possible explanations. Someone might have disconnected by house from the grid and powered it by generator. Of course, nobody has any reason to do that. Nobody has done that before.

This is logical reasoning and common sense. It is more than sufficient for accepting an explanation under ordinary circumstances. (Those where nobody has a vested interest in convincing others or themselves that the obviously true is not true.)

I'll try not to respond further about this in this thread, since there are already 800 threads about that and this thread is about something else.
2237  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: The sorry and thank you Pirateat40 thread on: August 27, 2012, 09:37:21 AM
I believe those who are being called upon to apologize are those who insist, vehemently and repeatedly, that it can only be a Ponzi.
I am one of those. I will not apologize unless I have made some sort of mistake.

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People who express that their opinion, based on their reasoning, led them to believe it to be a Ponzi are a different beast, just as those who say they do not believe it to be a Ponzi scheme, but admit that it could be.  These people have formed the quieter majority, of course.  The "extremists" on various axes ("ponzi/notaponzi", "use logic/use repeated claims as if they were fact", etc.) are the ones who have made stands that are primarily signaling activities.  While I don't expect a flood of sincere apologies from anyone (except one person and only if dominoes fall one way), I do hope that people learn from the experience and are more careful, whichever way things turn out.
Can you please explain to me the possibility I failed to consider? I've been asking people to do that and to date nobody has. You cannot fault me for failing to consider a possibility that I had no knowledge of nor any way to know. That's like faulting a caveman for not knowing that Mars has two moons.

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A number of people have staked their reputations on the outcome, and a reputation should be jealously guarded.
If there's any mistake in my reasoning, tell me what it is. If you know but refuse to tell me, allowing me to continue to spread what you know is FUD and that I have no way to know, how is that *my* reputation that's at stake?

If I've made a mistake, point it out. I'm happy to correct errors. But all I hear is a broken record of "You might be wrong." and "That's what you think." But when I ask how I might be wrong, all I get back is silence. When I ask what I failed to consider, I get nothing back but handwaving and bogus arguments that Bitcoin is magical.
2238  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Obama or Romney ? on: August 27, 2012, 09:27:26 AM
You borrow from the future by creating the illusion of extra wealth. People act on this illusion to consume additional resources, etc. The future people then need to work harder to extract and use those resources than they would have needed to otherwise.
Well, and also by creating national debt that children are born into. Usually this is justified by arguing that the children will get the benefit of what the debt purchased, so it's only fair that they pay part of it.
2239  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If Pirate Runs: The Danger of one entity with 500K BTC on: August 27, 2012, 08:53:26 AM
Nice try but unconvincing. There is no such things as "fair" market value, "rational" investor behavior or "efficient" markets. Please read Mandelbrot or Taleb on Finance to end the belief in Gaussian law applied to irrational behaviors.
It has been shown that, if we had "rational" markets", events like financial crises would happen every 500 000 years instead of every 10-15 years.
Hence you refutation does not hold.
The refutation doesn't rely on any such thing. That was just a simple way to explain it. If it makes you happy, re-read it but everywhere you see, say, $10, mentally substitute "whatever the average  price would have been over the medium-term had the price not been manipulated". Wherever you see, say, $7, substitute "a bit less than what the price would have been had it not been manipulated".

Of course, the argument doesn't work if the price is increasing continuously. But, obviously, anyone can make tons of money in that case.

The point is very simple -- you have to manipulate the price at your own expense, and others can make you take as big a loss as they wish. And you have to split the profit with others. And I know for a fact that there are several well-financed people fully capable of doing both of those things.
2240  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: centralized post of pirate payouts or other related news to the closing. on: August 27, 2012, 07:19:47 AM
I don't get it. How can grownups sit on their asses watching their investment mysteriously grow at cancer rates without asking themselves where it's coming from, and at what expense?
That's the big question. I've seen people who I consider very intelligent and worthy of respect manage to convince themselves that Bitcoins are somehow different. I find it baffling.

I dont rip off the mafia because I dont want my kids finger to show up in the mail.


That statement could very well ring true if you have kids...and the kids are actually YOURS....
I don't think he wants any kid's finger to show up in anyone's mail.

I wish I could say that I don't condone violence of any kind, but I'm not a pacifist. If the legal system is not equipped to deal with a Bitcoin theft like this, I'm not sure what the alternative to force is. I'm morally opposed to responding to force or fraud with pacifism unless there's an effective agency with moral authority to address the issue. In this case, there very well may not be any such agency. In that case, I don't believe you've forfeited your natural right to self-defense -- just as you would have it if you were in a region of the world that didn't have a functioning government.

For the record, I am not yet convinced that institutions are not in place that are capable of dealing with this.
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