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2241  Other / Off-topic / Re: "breaking bad" TV series on: June 04, 2011, 06:12:25 AM
Hahaha. Great idea. Someone should write to the producers.
2242  Economy / Economics / Re: Screw the economic growth paradigm on: June 04, 2011, 05:43:38 AM
I've been a long-time critic of the dictum, that economies must always grow (and I'm not alone).

I think this paradigm is a remnant of older ages, when the spanish, portugese, british and whoever where in the process of colonializing the world and a little younger times, when nation-state's economies started competing on a global scale.

Taking a global view, an ever-growing economy cannot work in the long run because of earth's limited resources. I actually think we (at least the "western" people) should scale our consumption (and therefore our non-exporting economies?) down. I think if we don't, this will bite us in the ass big time some day. Also: we are still to a certain extent a role-model for people in developing countries... imagine all the world having energy and resource consumption of a US citizen => doesn't work.

Do we really need all the consumer products we buy en masse each day and throw away the next? Does it make us happier? I'm seeing many articles about studies suggesting otherwise.

So why am I telling you this?

Because I think it's a very nice answer to the many people saying "a deflationary currency cannot work as the main global currency, because it just wont support economic growth".

Is it (a good answer)?

Its not a good answer, for two reasons:

1. Price deflation does not stop growth. The answer to those people is pointing out that their theories are wrong, as multiple historic evidence show. In fact, inflation stops growth because it creates malinvestments.

2. You are asuming that growing means consuming more resources, but growing can mean consuming less resources. For example, we have today computers that consume less electricity and have more computing power than computers built 5 years ago. We have grown increasing productivity by discovering new technology and has allowed us to have more with less resources.
2243  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin and the Efficient Market Hypothesis on: June 04, 2011, 05:33:18 AM
The problem is not with bitcoin, its with the Efficient Market Theory, that is basically wrong.

Dont get me wrong, markets are efficient, just not in the way described by the Effcient Market Theory.
2244  Economy / Economics / Re: You cannot talk about Money without watching this movies first on: June 04, 2011, 05:31:59 AM
MONEY AS DEBT is a misleading movie that contains mayor errors while speaking the monetary system. Money is not debt, and money is never created only out of debt.

Not only that. The Money Masters has big historical mistakes and is a very misleading film.

I actually got interested about central banking after watching The Money Masters and when I started reading about monetary history I got very deceived since I discovered that The Money Masters is a very misleading movie, with big big historical mistakes.

I would not recomend anyone watching it. The central banks must be criticized for the right reason, not with more lies.
2245  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 27, 2011, 06:06:18 PM
And please lets stop with this inernet meme that the Federal Reserve is a private bank. Its not.

And most of the central banks of the world are not private, like f.e. the European Central Bank. And even in the few cases where the central bank is private, it only gets the power because of the government charter.

Its quite irrelevant that the central bank is government owned or private, the problem is that a central bank exists.

By the same logic all corporations are public since they only get the privilege of organizing as a corporation because of a government charter... Nonsense.

It is relevant because of public accountability, which the Federal Reserve Bank is not. There is no parallel between the public accountability of the Federal Reserve Bank and any public institution. It is controlled and therefore owned by private individuals who are not elected by the public to any public office, the U.S. government has a minority representation on its board and does not control it, therefore does not own it.

Its not the same. The part that takes the decissions inside the Federal Reserve System are agencies of the federal government. Bernanke and the rest of the gang are nominated by the president and ratified by congress. How is that a private institution? How is a corporation any similar? Yes corporations get privileges from the government but they dont have a federal government agency as ruling institution...
2246  Economy / Economics / Re: Confidence Crisis and Collapse on: March 27, 2011, 10:07:04 AM
Here's what I posted there:

This obsession with 'backing' demonstrates a gross failure to understand the subjective theory of value.

What backs gold???  Nothing other than the subjective valuations of individuals.  The same is true of fiat currencies, except here individual subjective valuations concern matters such as 'not getting arrested' or 'not getting shot.'  

Bitcoin is a technologic, cryptographically-rooted, informational commodity.  It has unique, desirable properties inherent to its design and structure.  Individuals subjectively value these properties.   Their reasons and value scales differ, but the simple fact that people are already trading Bitcoins proves that it is subjectively valued.

You talk about 'confidence crises.'  This is unique historically only to fiat currencies (and paper currencies built fractionally on commodities like gold).  The subjective valuation of fiat currencies is derived from political considerations.  As such, confidence in them is built on the ever-shifting sands of political perceptions.

When was the last confidence crisis in gold?  There hasn't been one.  People value gold for its physical properties defined by the laws of nature.  Those properties do not change and individuals have continued to subjectively value them.

The same is true of Bitcoin.  Its properties are rooted in our present understanding of cryptographic principles.  As long as individuals continue to value properties such as anonymity, decentralization, finite supply, low transaction fees, ease of digital manipulation, ability to integrate smart contracts, etc... we have no reason to expect a 'confidence crisis.'  

This will be true as long as the cryptographic logic buttressing the system remains sound – just like the laws of physics underlie the desired properties of gold.  Breaking this cryptographic logic (akin to cheap transmutation of lead into gold) would require breakthrough advancements of our knowledge of cryptography and discoveries on hitherto unsolved mathematical problems.  But even in this case, the open-source nature of Bitcoin allows it to evolve new cryptographic implementations that would avoid such problems.

+1

People dont understand value and money.
2247  Economy / Economics / Re: Confidence Crisis and Collapse on: March 27, 2011, 10:06:17 AM
The original article talks about the dollar being backed by force (specifically since people are coerced into paying obligations to the US government using dollars.)
If bitcoins are in use for a while and legal contracts are written requiring the paying of obligations in bitcoin then bitcoins will have a little bit of the same kind of backing as the dollar. Someone could be coerced (by the courts) into seeking out bitcoins to pay off obligations. In that sense bitcoins will have intrinsic "value".

We could grow into this kind of world because bitcoin has advantages paper dollars don't. Contracts may start to be written denominated in bitcoin.


No. Most countries have legal tender laws which means you dont have freedom of contract. If you write a contract and demand to be payed in bitcoins, gold, blue shoes, whatever... you can not enforce it. If you go to court to demand payment the court will allow the counter part to pay you bank in the legal tender currency (dollar, euros, ...) because by law legal tender means its valid to reapy any debt.

Btw, when you voluntarely sign a contract, it is not initiation of violence if I demand that you fulfill your contract.
2248  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 27, 2011, 09:56:56 AM
And please lets stop with this inernet meme that the Federal Reserve is a private bank. Its not.

And most of the central banks of the world are not private, like f.e. the European Central Bank. And even in the few cases where the central bank is private, it only gets the power because of the government charter.

Its quite irrelevant that the central bank is government owned or private, the problem is that a central bank exists.
2249  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 27, 2011, 09:54:35 AM
Quote from: hupolp
You are defining what a currency is: an object that by mutual agreement everybody starts using as means of exchange. It is only later that governments come and create a monopoly.
By governments you/I mean enforcing entity. And historically it has been the enforcing entity that existed first, then the currency. Today's currency systems, there is no need for a mutual agreement at the point of transaction, the exchange of fiat will be recognized by the state. The mutual agreement manifests itself when citizens vote and their faith in the state, that their politicians will make sure that the monetary authorities adhere the rules outlined and preserve the value of fiat, this I believe is the fundamental issue is the failure of adherence, of-course it has wider implications for other aspects of society.

No. Money always appears naturally and it is later that governments monpolize it. Study your history.

Quote
Quote from: hugolp
Its quite sad that you think that only through government can things work, when reality shows us that its the other way around.
Which currency system are you refering to? I am unaware of any currency system throughout history that has existed without a 'physical authority/backing'

Most of them. During the middle ages there were numerous private mints for example.

Governements did not chose gold and silver as money, they just monopolized their use with regulations once they were widely used as money by the people.

Quote
Quote from: hugolp
Imagine the situation in one or two years, where more and more business are starting to accept bitcoins. Now another group starts a new chain, and then another one, so we have three e-currencies. The problem for the two new ones is that nobody is accepting them, the companies only accept bitcoins. It would be difficult for the new currencies to be accepted by the business because no one uses them, and no one uses them because no business use them. So people will continue to use the original bitcoins and not the other currencies.

Like you say let's imagine;

                    that no one will care about the fact 25% of bitcoins are already minted. this is a separate issue regarding minting implementation, not relevant here.
                    that current entities of power will just allow a simple transfer of power to bitcoin holders
                    that no one will start another crypto-currency, that is potentially recognized and backed by a physical entity
                    that current states will adjust their currency systems to incorporate features of bitcoin, thereby providing physical backing on top.

So?

The whole point of bitcoin is that is not government backed. That is the reason most of us trust it. If you study history ALL governments have debased the currency. For some it has taken longer, for others shorter, but ALL have debased the currency. So if you trust the government currency you are up for a surprise. Because Bitcoin is not a government system I trust it. If the government issued a bitcoin similar system I would not trust it.

And if you have a currency not backed by the government but a centrallized organization backing it you have high probability of being regulated or even banned by the government to stop you from competing with their currency. Check the recent Liberty dollars case.

What you dont seem to like of bitcoin is the exact reason why I like it.
2250  Economy / Economics / Re: Labor costs and prices in an economy using bitcoin exclusively on: March 27, 2011, 09:37:57 AM
As we’ve discussed, debasing the currency does not necessarily lead to inflation if the economy is growing, but on the other hand it may. This is because human management of the currency is never perfect and temptation will always be there to “prime the pump” a little too much.

People tend to focus too much in the inflation is theft problem and leave asside the biggest problem of inflation: the discoordination that creates in the market that leads to inefficiencies, lower standard of living and boom and bust cycles.

You can have no increase in prices even if there is (monetary) inflation because of productivity increase. But that does not mean everything is fine and dandy. During the roaring 20's Fisher congratulated the Federal Reserve for how well they managed the money supply. There was no price increases in the CPI index. Keynes said in 1927 that they had now control over the economy and crsis were a thing of the past. On the opposed side, Mises and Hayek warned of a coming crisis. Mises even rejected a well payed job at a major bank and stayed in his low paying job as academic (his wife wasnt happy about it) because he said the banks were going bankrupt and he didnt want his name associated with it.

Then the 1929 crash arrived and developed into the Great Depression because of the interventionist policies of Hoover and FDR. And btw the bank Mises rejected did go bankrupt. What did Mises and Hayek saw or knew that Keynes and Fisher didnt? Why those two that are still today considered valid economists got it so wrong? Both Keynes and Fisher went bankrupt themselves in the Great Depression. Keynes came from a wealthy family so his parents came from England and rescued his mess. Fisher lost all of his family savings but was given a job at a elitist university so he could earn some money.

So again, the price index were flat under the Federal Reserve management during the roaring 20's. What did Mises and Hayek saw or knew that Fisher and Keynes didnt? Its simple. It does not matter if the price index is flat, (monetary) inflation can still cause changes in the relative price levels of the different goods in the market creating disbalances that produce inefficient outcomes and if continued for some time bring about a crisis as the only way to correct those inbalances. Fisher and Keynes focused so much in aggregates, analizing all the goods as if they were the same goods, that did not take into account the distortions inflation causes even when price index are flat.

As conclussion, inflation does finance the government and the banking sector at the expense of the rest, but so do taxes and people tend to accept them beter. The real problem with inflation is that distorsts the capital structure making the system less efficient, more wasteful and makes everybody poorer.
2251  Economy / Economics / Re: Labor costs and prices in an economy using bitcoin exclusively on: March 26, 2011, 08:19:20 PM
I'll start by saying it is a bit of a stretch to consider an exclusive Bitcoin economy as existing in a vacuum. The very nature of Bitcoin virtually ensures there will at least be several of them. It may very well be the case that there are rules that could be applied to one of many parallel Bitcoins which is better suited to paying wages much in a way people are presently used to. But I doubt that there is a one-size-fits-all solution that will work well with all market segments.

And vendors can easily adapt to having different e-currencies, because a website can automatically adjust prices and even automatically exchange from one e-currency to the one preferred by the vendor. I mean that the vendor could deal only in currency C, but accept currencies A, B, C and D. When someone goes to his/her website and pays in currency B, the system can automatically send that money to an exchange and receive payment in currency C. That way the vendor only deals with his preferred currency while still accepting a lot of them. In an unregulated economy the cost of the exchange would probably be minimal, there could even be vendor associations that exchange the currencies among themselves, a sort of vendor cooperative exchange.

PS: There goes my part to get the post back on track.
2252  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 26, 2011, 04:59:19 PM
This whole idea of "early adopters" is nonsense. I'm annoyed* at the "early adopters" who managed to accumulate huge quantities of bitcoins while CPU mining was "easy".


They don't annoy anyone until they decide to cash in, and flood the market with their "savings", which causes "WTF" results for everybody else.

If only 5% of the BTC in existence are circulating, and the early adopters decide to cash in 5% of their "savings", what happens to the Bitcoin economy?  Exactly the same thing as if money printing was used to double the circulation overnight.  The price halves, and they have basically confiscated 50% of the entire Bitcoin economy.

If 95% of the BTC in existence are sleeping in the hands of someone waiting to "get rich", this can be done several times.  When done, they'll have confiscated, oh, about 95% of the Bitcoin economy.  That is exactly how they "get rich" - by confiscating the wealth of others.  Riches don't come out of thin air.


You really think someone has 95% of the bitcoins in existance? But lets assume it for the sake of the argument, what would he/she gain from crashing the value of bitcoins?
2253  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 26, 2011, 02:36:56 PM
The only thing that connects the crypto-currency world with the real world is 'faith' by human agents:
                      (a) that someone else will value their bitcoins, fundamentally you have to ask why would another entity value your bitcoins?
                                   i.e With fiat I know that an authority will accept payment using them.
                      (b) That no other crypto-currency will come into existence and devalue their holdings.
                                  i.e It would be hard to start a fiat currency that had value unless connected to something physical, (i.e an entity or resource)

You could say that bitcoin is a religion! Just a really complex one. Modern day currencies have some element ( some would say minor due to 'corruption'/'manipulation') connection with the world that makes it legit. and the value is enforceable. Who will defend the value of bitcoins? I think that it's somewhat shortsighted that somehow 'market' forces can do this, with the current design.

I guess what I am really saying is that bitcoin, undercurrent design, can not exist without a state.

You are defining what a currency is: an object that by mutual agreement everybody starts using as means of exchange. It is only later that governments come and create a monopoly.

How do you know you will go to the supermarket next week and there will be food? There is no government law that forbids all supermarkets from closing. How do you know it wont happen? Are you actively planning for such an eventuallity? Same with Bitcoin.

Its quite sad that you think that only through government can things work, when reality shows us that its the other way around.
2254  Other / Off-topic / Re: The fantastic noagenda inflation service is here to save you! on: March 26, 2011, 11:50:46 AM
Hahaha, priceless threat.
2255  Economy / Economics / Re: Labor costs and prices in an economy using bitcoin exclusively on: March 26, 2011, 11:48:45 AM
Okay, here's the simple English version: When someone sells you something, you pay for it and you own it. When someone rents something to you, you pay for it but the he keeps owning it while you get nothing. Renting is bad because the person you rent from gains at your expense.

So basically you want to ban lending but not stricly ownership. Now that you have stated what you think is moral, I would like to understand why (and please, for the sake of understanding, keep the clear and understandable language going on).
2256  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 26, 2011, 11:29:38 AM
Quote from: noagendamarket
Its funny that bitcoin at the moment is a market monopoly on p2p cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is not a monopoly by any means.

There are other currencies around. Even not countirng government imposed currencies (these are the true monopoly) there are other competing currencies around.

But even in the case you want to reduce the market to p2p anonymous currencies (and lets assume Bitcoin is the only one in this sub-market) its still not a monopoly, because any competitor can freely enter the market. Being the only producer is not a monopoly, being the only sactioned producer is a monopoly.

One might ask, what's the point in leaving a fiat currency that unjustly enriches bankers, only to go to another that unjustly enriches its founders and early adopters, ponzi style, at the expense of those adopting the currency?  There is no such thing as "something for nothing"... the massive profits "earned" in speculating BTC come at the expense of those adopting it, just as those at the top of a pyramid scheme profit not out of thin air, but at the expense of those at the bottom.

Most of us here are those "early adopters"... of course we don't "want" the opportunity to be unjustly enriched to be taken from us.

No, and big time no. Nobody here is unjustly enriching from others. Nobody is taking huge profits from anyone. We early adopters took a risk and also had vision to believe in this project, others didnt, and well see who was right and who deserve a reward.

If Bitcoin fails should I go and demand that the others compensate me for the benefits they got while I was dedicating time to Bitcoin? No, that would be unjust. I have dedicated a lot of time to study economics, specially monetary policy and history. All that kwoledge adquired by my own dedication, part of my personal and limited knowledge of the world, has led me to believe in this project. Also, I was there surfing the internet and kept myself informed. Then I spent time promoting Bitcoin and trying to collaborate with the community in this forum. Other people used their time in other things that, given their personal limited knowledge at that time, though it was better for them. If Bitcoin fails do I have the right to demand that they give part of their profits to me? Why am I being unjust, if Bitcoin finally takes off and my efforts are early adopter help to bring a better world with this new currency?

Everybody has limited and local information, and based on that we make our decissions and take our rewards and our lessons. Trying to play god, assume you have all the information and can judge the motivations and situations that led to this outcome is just for dictators.

PS: On more practical grounds, I highly doubt in the future a scenario like the one you describe happens. People just will start using bitcoins because it will be useful to them somehow. I am 100% sure that someone will try to fork the chain and create a inflationary version, but I am 100% sure as well he will fail. History proves that inflationary voluntary currencies just die. Only way you can keep inflating away a curency and having people accept it is using violence. Without government backing, a inflationary currency dies.
2257  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin Failure is likely on: March 26, 2011, 03:27:12 AM
So why are these issues? Whats stopping a different another crypto-currency with exactly the same attributes as bitcoin? And by extension I believe that there will be competing crypto-currencies forming a "crypto-currencies market". This takes away one essential property that makes bitcoin by itself appealing.

                 The amount of crypto-currency in circulation is no longer pre-determined, rather it is infinite.

How is this achieved? If an entity does not want to recognize the value of a particular crypto-currency then they will simply start their own. Hence crypto-currencies will be plentiful.

Imagine the situation in one or two years, where more and more business are starting to accept bitcoins. Now another group starts a new chain, and then another one, so we have three e-currencies. The problem for the two new ones is that nobody is accepting them, the companies only accept bitcoins. It would be difficult for the new currencies to be accepted by the business because no one uses them, and no one uses them because no business use them. So people will continue to use the original bitcoins and not the other currencies.

Now, lets imagine the new e-currencies are started by a group of merchants that accept them as a way to promote the new currency. Only in this case its posible that the new currency gets some traction and competes with the original bitcoin. But if there are already a bunch of e-currencies I doubt people will start using one more.

I personally think that having three or four e-currencies competing is good and I hope that with time appears competition. Having only one currency is probably not the safest situation.

Having competing currencies is normal in human societies, its how humans have lived most of the time. But presently we have grown so used to live under a money monopoly that its hard to think how it would work. Its funny and sad at the same time.
2258  Economy / Economics / Re: Labor costs and prices in an economy using bitcoin exclusively on: March 25, 2011, 05:45:02 PM
Quote
Quote
You find some usable land and start farming the potatoes. Perhaps you will do so in cooperation with other farmers. Everyone will own the resulting potatoes in accordance with the work they've contributed to it. They will probably want to keep so many potatoes and trade the rest for things that they need and want.

You have the right to refuse to associate with someone as well as the right to defend yourself from thieves. You have no right to lord your surplus over anyone.

Isnt this contradictory?

Why someone selling a potato and obtaining a surplus is just trading and its moral, but someone else selling a potato and obtaining a surplus is "lording the potatos" and its inmoral?
When you sell a potato, you now own whatever you got in exchange for it and have no more ownership over that potato. When you lord a potato, you might take a portion of all the potatoes that anyone might ever grow from it, like how Monsanto operates. You might become that person's lord as long as they eat your potatoes.
There is a difference. If you don't like the word lord, then think of rent, or loan with interest.[/quote]

You have not answered. Stop hiding behind rethoric and answer clearly.

In the example above, the original, how can I know if someone is just obtaining surplus in a moral way (according to you) or someone is obtaining a surplus inomorally (according to you)?
2259  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When the majority decides to change the rules on: March 25, 2011, 12:24:19 PM
I'll agree that bitcoin isn't perfect. One problem I could see with the changing value of the currency:

You buy a house for 1000btc
You make 10btc a month.

2 years later..

You still owe 850btc on the house
You make 9btc a month because the value has risen relative to the USD.


You can still afford to make your payments but if it continues to rise you're going to be in trouble.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this a big part of what happened to farmers in the dustbowl?
I don't mean they hand loans in BTC obviously  Grin but their value of the money went up and food was easier to buy but they still owed the same in loans.

The other side of the story is that saving for yourself and then using that capital becomes easier, so people can start their own projects without going so much into debt and depending so much on the banks. Inflation on the other hand promotes debt.

About the farmers of dustbowl I guess you are referring to the incident during the Great Depression. The thing is that inflation propagandists always point to deflation for making loans more dificult to pay, but always hide that during the roaring 20's it was the inflationary policies of the Fed that promoted the creation of all that debt. Without inflation all that debt would not have been there and the crash of 1929 would not have happened.
2260  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: When the majority decides to change the rules on: March 25, 2011, 08:10:55 AM
If I don't know what I'm talking about then every monetary reformist and every government and most economists on the planet are wrong and you are right.

No, most of the economists dont think like this. Still using the argument of "most people think like this" thus you are wrong is extremely weak, borderline manipulative.

There is nothing wrong with prices going down, no matter how many times you repeat the same idea. Repeat it again, still wrong.

Quote
Why do you think we came off a gold standard. I'll tell because France asked to be paid in gold and America didn't have enough gold.

Bretton Woods was designed in a way that this was unavoidable. The USA kept printing more dollars than gold had and finally it could not pay. In fact the story of how the USA government gradually took over the monetary system its very interesting. It shows why fiat currencies, even if they claim to be backed by gold dont work. Competing currencies dont suffer from this problems.
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