Not a bad idea,

it just means for all participants that they trade with real money right away.

Who would be interested to join? (I won't since I am analysing the market and issue technical analysis regularly)

Thanks for sharing.

I am using Elliott Wave personally a lot and it is one of my favorite and most successful one.

On the Sp500, I believe that we are very very close to the top, if we have not seen it already. But even if we see one more high, it will be margnally above the 1344 point (maximum 1365).

No, Jed should typically respond to you timely and then activate the transfer quickly.

Agree.

There is some misconception that MtGox is extremely dependent on LR, which is not the case.

It is possible to do wire transfers (ACH in the US, standard bank wire (if you have a bank account in Europe, etc). All this works very well.

Hi Everyone,

not a lot of trading going on,  no changes to the outlook.

Your S3052

Your proposal makes a lot of sense to me.
10k of each currency
BTCUSD for sure as it is most liquid
2 months or 3 months

Ideally link it directly to MtGox order book or from MtGox indirectly via bitcoincharts.com (tcam)

--> We need a prize for the winners, sth like 250 BTC (1.) 100 BTC (2.) 50 (3.), 10 (4.-15.)

I am happy to join the people contributing.

Great idea.

I like it.

We could write to them asking to add BTC into the Practice Account at least.

Hi Everyone (and specifically those who are trading bitcoins),

unfortunately trading has slowed down lately.

At the same time, bitcoin trading remains one of the most profitable areas globally

+ the compounded average monthly grwoth rate of BTC/USD is a whopping +70%
+ BTC/USD are up + 31323% since May 2010.
+ there is quite some volatility to use in trading


I am wondering whether we should not start a trading competition and award the best traders (the ones who make the  highest percentage gain in 1 month, 6 months, etc.)

The only question remains how to track it and prove it for the participants, but with all the coding experts in the forum, this should not be a problem..?

Analysis

1. Longterm outlook:

BTC/USD continues to be BULLISH longterm, as long as the 0.4-0.5 $  area holds (strong longterm horizontal and trendline resistance).




2. Short term update

The most probable scenario is a break above 0.95 $ as the kick off to a further BTC/USD rally.

Short term, we see the following key levels:

a) Resistance:

* 0.95 $: Downsloping trendline from the 1.1 $ all-time-high.

* 1.0 $: Round number resistance

* 1.1 $: All time high

b) Support

*0.8 $: Strong support: 1) lower Bollinger band, 2) horizontal support.



Next update: Friday, 4th.

Your S3052

You should first learn about forextrading, start practising with tiny amounts, fail, try again, and perhaps after this "education period" you might make money consistently.
be aware that this may last 5-10 years (or never) until you reach this expertise (you might be a magic talent, so I do not want to discourage you, but please be aware of the risks)

30 BTC sent

Last update said: "The TREND is DOWN for BTC/USD towards 0.8$, and potentially deeper. (no change vs. last updates, the forecast is on track)"

Prices indeed continued down and went down to 0.85 $. However, BTC/USD did not go down as deep as 0.8 $.

Afterwards, prices caught a bid by one big 16k $ order and is now close to the upper trendline.
If this trend (0.975 $) broken, a rise to 1.0 $ is likely.

As said before, a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.



Next Full Update Wednesday, March 3rd.



Your S3052

And again, it is Monday and I have reset the market sentiment poll.


Up?
Same as now?
Down?
I don't know?

click on the poll above

Please VOTE

The TREND is DOWN for BTC/USD towards 0.8$, and potentially deeper. (no change vs. last updates, the forecast is on track)


Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead.


Your S3052

The terminology:

"There is a strong likelyhood that we see another leg down toward 0.8 , or even 0.5 eventually." means that my forecast is BEARISH. PRICES are expected to go down to at least 0.8 $, based on my analysis.

There is no ambiguity. Not everyone has to agree to that.

I will be wrong if prices break 1 $ or 1.1 $. (Giving alternative scenarios at lower probabilities is also important in forecasting and technical analysis. It does not mean I am undecided).

Thanks a lot+


Emotionally, I wish bitcoins a huge success and further rising value... (but this is not about my emotions)

Technically, it takes a rise above 1.0 $ ,and better 1.1 $ to continue and even  accelerate the rally.

Vladimir, thanks for the question.

Basically, a multitude of key technical indicators and tools point downwards (If I like this forecast or not, but it is my job to stick to the facts).

To illustrate it better, I share another chart with more in depth analysis and some explaination.

1. A new downtrend is established (lower highs) from the 1.1$ high (see upper green line)
2. Volume trend is down: rises are accompanied with lower volume than declines
3. MACD indicator is in bearish territory: blue line below pink line. As long as blue line does not cross pink line, we are in a downtrend.
4. RSI is pointing downwards and has more room to sink before it gets oversold. When it hits 30, we may see a trend change.
5. Uptrend line through the 0.3 - 0.4 -0.8 zones has been (slightly) broken to the downside: see second, lower green trendline.

Net, not a lot to turn bullish now.
Very longterm, the uptrend is intact as long as we remain above 0.5 $.

Hope this explains better.

Only a strong rise above the 1.0 - 1.1 $ area brings the bull back into the lead. Strong fund inflows are needed for that, which is always possible, given the huge awareness increase on bitcoins (as highlighted in other threads)

Your S3052

great. I am on it now in Lausanne/Geneva.

Stimmt, es ist wichtig dass jeder einzelne der so denkt wie wir weiter darauf beharrt, bitcoins nicht mit irgendwelchen zweifelhaften dingen in verbindung zu bringen - und anderen forumsmitglieder dazu ermuntert, dies auch nicht zu tun.
cdecker und smoketoomuch: wir sind auf der gleichen wellenlänge.