|
The article repeats some good points, well known by the bears and dismissed by the bulls, but I don't understand how he
came up with 10$ / coin in 2014. To get that low on Gox would require a bid sum of some 3M$ and 200k coins on the ask sum.
I find it very unlikely for the bid sum on Gox to drop (and persist) in 2014 under 10M$ and the ask sum to rise above 100k coins.
|
|
|
|
|
No, it is 'more risk' IMO, and the current 750$ price is sustained only by some late new fiat and low volume.
|
|
|
|
|
If there will be another large drop, it will only be the second sub-wave of wave C.
|
|
|
|
|
After comparing the current market movements with the ones of June 2011, I believe it's possible that the drop from 1066$ to 455$ (11th to 19th December) wasn't the whole wave C,
but only the first third of it. In 2011 the similar movements were from 13th to 18th of June, with a drop from 24$ to 13$. Now, why did the current market rebound so strongly?
A possible explanation is that Google trends shows a short spike in interest on the 18th December, so some new fiat probably entered the exchanges.
The confirmation of the scenario that the market is still in wave C would be another large drop, if it won't happen then the new fiat may have reversed the trend, that would be interesting.
|
|
|
|
Pera, I understand that many coins are being transferred, but is it to the exchanges, and how many? Would you mind elaborating on this issue? Thanks in advance. |
|
|
|
|
So the Chinese have until 10th February 2014 to withdraw fiat and coins from their exchanges, is this correct?
The 4h charts suggests a new downtrend, but the bids are now at an ATH, interesting situation, could turn either way.
Google trends shows interest in bitcoin similar to the 500$ level, but is lagging by 3 days.
|
|
|
|
|
I will buy when the price won't be a silent NaN.
|
|
|
|
|
Something is fishy about China IMO: the volume of today's drop seems too low for the third sub-wave of wave C.
I'm not buying until I'm sure that the market has hit the very bottom, and at least for China, I don't think it has yet.
|
|
|
|
|
Usually I find that picture misleading, but now it looks uncanny...
Maybe more important is that the 1d MACD has now turned negative after a long time.
|
|
|
|
|
Today's volume on Gox is a lot more than on the previous drops of 16th -17th, but in China it's about the same.
IMO this means that on Gox there is significant resistance to the large price drop, but not so much in China.
|
|
|
|
|
Wow, that went faster than I expected! So it doesn't look like April after all.
Now, the big question, was 480$ the very bottom (Gox price)? I'm not sure, based on historical data the price should
drop by about 50% during the last sub-wave of wave C, and now it only dropped about 36% (750$ to 480$).
|
|
|
|
Looks like bitcoins stabilized at a new temporary price of $750. I think this is another temporary stop before it lowers again to a more sustainable level.
I see no reason why bitcoins won't fall back to $300 or lower now.
Lets face it, it seems the whole reason bitcoin boomed recently was China. I wish I knew just how much they were buying, but they seemed to be the big player. With the government cracking down over there and if china is pretty much out of the game, who is going to be buying $750 dollar bitcoins?
Surely not the people who bought them for $100 and lower. These people are probably the majority of the people who have the potential to buy bitcoins. They talk about going to the moon, but I doubt any of those people are going to fork $750 of their fiat dollars for a bitcoin especially when they are holding some already. They talk about going to the moon because they want their value to increase. They are not taking $750 dollars and buying a single digital coin.
More and more people should start selling their bitcoins as the price stagnates and signs point to another drop. Right now the price looks very weak and no signs of any recovery.
For their to be another speculative bubble and price to go to the moon again, bitcoin will have to lower in price enough for new people to want to buy them. The price will have to go to a level where people feel they are undervalued and another buying frenzy gets pushed forward. I don't see this happening until the price reaches at least in the $200's.
The reason for the boom is more complicated than just China (as for China, only Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing areas were really involved). IMO the recovery from the SR crash (which crash was corrective wave 2) was the start point of the boom and China only strengthened the uptrend. Once price started to rise sharply, more people got interested, and new fiat flowed into the exchanges for quite a while. As for the price at the very bottom, I said before that it depends how many more coins will appear in the asks, right now about 51k on Gox, according to trading.i286 In April, at this stage of the market, the biggest dumps already happened, so the most important information now should be the amount of coins transferred to the exchanges. I believe the next days will see greed turn into fear, as the buyers look weak, and more coins will appear in the ask sum, building up seller pressure. |
|
|
|
|
Until today, my guesstimate of the time required to reach the very bottom was no longer than the 22nd December, but after
comparing the patterns of April 12th - 16th to the current ones, it seems that the moves take now about 5 times longer.
So if the market will continue to move at this slow rate, the very bottom might be reached only around the 28th December.
If the 5x longer time for moves will be confirmed, then a new fully developed bull market might only start in about 12 - 15 months from now.
The discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained has grown larger, wtf does this mean?
Trading.i286 shows right now about 49.5k coins on the Gox ask side, while blockchained only about 38k.
|
|
|
|
|
Shouldn't bulls start a 'bull bunker' thread, now that it's going down hard?
As for where the market is, IMO it's in the middle of wave C. The first third was a weak drop, the second third happens now,
and the third and most powerful drop (itself divided into three) should happen in another 2 - 5 days, depending on volume.
|
|
|
|
If I were chinese I would buy the BTC, withdraw, and then sell OTC, since there won't be any other ways for getting BTC for chinese people in the future.
if no new money can flow into btcchina, but people can still withdraw money, btcchina is going to near 0. and some luck chinese guy will buy everyone bitcoin really cheap b4 btcchina is forced to close its doors. this is going to be brutal... And then they'll dump the coins on Western exchanges. That's going to hurt too... |
|
|
|
|
Gox ddosed again, while Bitstamp and BTC-E go down fast.
|
|
|
|
People who write code are today's rock stars. edit: and now they're driving around in Lamborghinis....that's gonna only add to that rep  Not necessarily true, more likely their bosses do that. |
|
|
|
on mtgox:
sum_bid: 33,276,632 USD | sum_ask: 34,451 BTC | ratio: 965.90 USD/BTC
bid and ask sums are non important. they do not tell anything as they will be pulled and increased when needed. every piece of information is important agreed, but bid and ask sums are constantly manipulated, hence the worst indicator. Or the easiest one to fool you If you check the bid sum / ask sum charts, you'll see that the price has usually been between 1 / 3 to 1 / 2 of the ratio. This puts the 'target' price right now between 320$ and 480$. And possibly lower once the avalanche of coins starts. |
|
|
|
It is similar, if you look at the June 2011 charts, but in 2011 there was a lot less fiat on the exchanges. The bear market might not last as long this time, and the total drop is unlikely to be over 90% from the ATH. |
|
|
|
|
To break the previous ATH of 1240$ would require about 27M$ plus resistance. While the bid side isn't looking bad yet,
those 27M$ are 73% of the 37M$ total bids on Gox. With little new money coming to the exchanges, it's not going to happen.
Wave C has to finish, then a new market cycle can begin, but historical data shows those have been failed bull markets, and
only after several months a fully developed bull market will succeed and possibly drive the price to a new ATH.
|
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
