You should have specified PERMABULLS ONLY in the title.  I voted for the last option. If the market doesn't find THE bottom within 60 days, then for the first time in bitcoin history, wave C could get an extension, and possibly even drop to double digits (but right now I find this very unlikely).  I shit in my pants already. What price do you think it could go down to, and when? If the pattern of price deflation will be similar to the one of June - October, then I guesstimated a bottom of about 180$ in January - February. But it's better to wait and see how this unfolds, and make shorter term predictions. If not too many bagholders will panic sell, then the market might even bounce off 275$ (further down truncated, and then slow and steady up). If many will panic sell, then the shit will hit the fan. |
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FUCK YOU BEARS
If you look like this, I'm interested to meet you...   ___________________________________________________________ Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearishSo how do you explain your sig?  Sorry, don't understand your question. What has my sig to do with the cute she-bear I jokingly posted? The sig idea came from an argument with oda.krell. To me it means that sometimes uber-bullishness (with silly overbought indicators) is a good time to sell / short, or that a short term bullish development means that finding THE bottom will last longer. |
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FUCK YOU BEARS
If you look like this, I'm interested to meet you... |
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When do we need to remodel the trendline?
One year ago. IMO longer than 1 year. Markus started faking the price since February 2013, quoting from the Willy report: "In other words, Markus is somehow buying tons of BTC without spending a dime." |
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Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task. Good question. How can that be measured, @Tzupy? I'll love a metric for that. Are you using volume alone? Or are you using the classical volatility metric? Time elapsed between peaks and bottoms in June - August (please excuse small counting errors) compared with current market: June 1st to June 25th, so 24 days. From 680$ to 557$. November 13th to November 21st, 8 days. From 454$ to 342$. This was about thrice as fast. June 25th to July 3rd, so 9 days. From 557$ to 660$. November 21st to November 25th, so 4 days. From 342$ to 395$. This slowed down to about twice as fast. July 3rd to August 1st, so 28 days. From 660$ to 557$. November 25th to December 11th, so 16 days. From 395$ to 340$. This was also about twice as fast. |
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It would be nice of oda.krell to post a notice about the indicator flipping to red.
I'm not sure why you think his indicator would have changed? On the scale the indicator uses the market has been basically flat since the change to BTC. Last time it flipped to red it was in July around the 23rd. I have a count by which the market is now in a similar position. Latest events suggest that the market was indeed in a similar position. Why didn't the indicator flip yet? My guess is that since it uses 1d metric, and the market now moves about twice as fast as during June - October, it should use 12h to work as expected in the current market. Also, in July the flip to red coincided with the flip to red of 3d MACD divergence, which may flip again soon with the current dumps. |
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You should have specified PERMABULLS ONLY in the title. I voted for the last option. If the market doesn't find THE bottom within 60 days, then for the first time in bitcoin history, wave C could get an extension, and possibly even drop to double digits (but right now I find this very unlikely). |
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In conclusion: Don't leverage, just hold.
Only on Bitcointalk is it possible to find a thread where someone pronounces that those who have been negative about the prospects for the price of an investment would have been better off buying and holding, as we come to the end of a year where prices have fallen steadily by 70%!!!! And what's even more nuts, is that most people who read my statement above will think I'm an idiot, and just don't get it! Dude, WTF is wrong with you?  Don't you know that they aren't losses if you hodl and don't sell. I'm never selling my coins... ever. I'll just jack off to their infinite value every now and then. I mean, f--- the market... they just don't get it... they don't realize how cool these things are. They are each worth a million dollars. I'm the richest man in the world with all of these million dollar coins. This isn't money, man... this is wealth. Bullish as fuck, bro. Bahahahahaha . In case it's not, then okay. In case it is, then realize that you were responding to a sensible statement. It's a terrible thing to try to convince yourself that you aren't losing anything by holding, even when your *purchasing power* is dwindling. You need to work on your sarcasm detector. Of course it's sarcasm, directed at Devin Chow. |
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This dump started on Bitstamp, not in China, so maybe Chinese traders think this announcement was bullish.
Oddly enough, Huobi is very bearish on the orderbook. Already 5K BTC to reach the 24 hour high of 2183! Thats bad. Remember that OKCoin/BTCChina orderbooks are mostly bogus. Huobi is not, at least not to the same degree. I wasnt very convinced this drop was a big deal until seeing that steep mountain of asks on Huobi TBH. On Bitstamp the dumps came mostly from asks that were added the last 2 days but probably gave up waiting for a pump. Let's see if Huobi follows the same pattern... |
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Why would anyone dump just after the MS announcement and right before the money hits the exchanges?
Because the bubble hasn't fully deflated yet? |
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This dump started on Bitstamp, not in China, so maybe Chinese traders think this announcement was bullish.
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Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August Thanks for the analysis. I'm curious, how do you measure market speed changes? Given it's fractal nature, it seems to be non-trivial task. It sure was confusing for the last weeks, but it seems to get clearer. I measure time elapsed between peaks and bottoms of the sub-sub-waves or even sub-sub-sub-waves (if recognizable). If the speed stays twice as fast as June - August - 6th October, then THE bottom could be reached in January instead of February as I guesstimated some time ago. |
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Next 24 hours are extremely critical.
I expect a dramatic price drop to at least $315.
But hey, don't listen to me. I usually get everything wrong.
You'd better trade the opposite and make profit.
Well, here we go! Glad that I was already short Market look has changed a lot in 24h. Remains to be seen how hard the crash will be. Did you take a look at my latest in masterluc's thread? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.2300 |
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While the waves are poorly defined, my most probable scenario for the near future is a repeat of the August 11 - 17 crash. Since the market moves about twice as fast than in June - August, I used 12h for the old chart and 6h for the current chart. To confirm this, 6h MACD divergence and 6h PSAR should turn bearish.   PS. This also supports the bearish scenario.  PS2. 6h PSAR just flipped. 6hMACD divergence still positive (barely). |
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There is no point to vote soon. First the market has to find THE bottom, then we'll have an idea how long it takes to build the new bull market.
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I saw an UFO in September 2009. I was flying to Amsterdam and over Germany I saw what looked like a silver shiny
cylindrical "aircraft" with no engines, wings or tail, that was flying about twice as fast as the "normal" passenger jets.
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Next 24 hours are extremely critical.
I expect a dramatic price drop to at least $315.
But hey, don't listen to me. I usually get everything wrong.
You'd better trade the opposite and make profit.
12h PSAR flipped to bullish and if 24h flips too tomorrow then there will be several days of 370$ - 380$. If the uptrend won't be confirmed, a triangle should form and later break down with big volume. |
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There is no need to invade Russia, it's easier to bankrupt it.
I wonder how you're planning to do that Already happening...  |
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