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2361  Economy / Economics / Re: India to pay for Iran's oil in gold on: February 01, 2012, 08:10:32 PM
Nonsense.  Oil has nothing to do with it. 
...
The value of the dollar comes because people want to hold dollars.

They hold USD because they are requested a lot (thus a reliable currency), they are requested a lot, because you need them to buy oil.
That is how the equation around oil and USD works.

The part of my post that you elided describes exactly why you do not need to hold dollars to buy oil, and why you don't have to end up holding dollars if you sell oil.
2362  Economy / Economics / Re: India to pay for Iran's oil in gold on: February 01, 2012, 01:50:15 PM
The move by India, if true, will have other unintended consequences: it will bring down the value of dollar.

If India does decide to pay Iran in gold, the decision will certainly push the price of gold high, especially as vast sums are involved in such transactions, and that would hurt the value of the dollar.

http://www.rediff.com/business/report/india-to-pay-for-irans-oil-in-gold/20120124.htm

Nonsense.  The relative values of the dollar vs. gold is because of the ratio of desire to hold the two assets.  If Iran wanted to hold gold now, they could buy it with dollars.

Some people argue that the primary reason the USD maintains its status as the world reserve currency is because it's the only currency you can use to buy oil.  This sustains the dollar's value even when we just keep printing more and are unable to pay our debts, because the USD acts as a proxy for oil, which everyone needs.  If gold became the new de-facto preferred payment for oil, then the desirability of the dollar world-wide would go way down relative to gold.

But of course India and Iran alone won't cause all this to happen.

Nonsense.  Oil has nothing to do with it.  It takes about a second to convert from any currency to any other currency using FOREX.  Even if the transaction itself takes place in dollars, that doesn't mean that the buyer had dollars the minute before the sale, or that the seller is still holding dollars a minute after the sale.

Gold would add a new wrinkle, but only if physical gold was changing hands at the same time that the physical oil was being (un)loaded.  But most of the "gold" in the world is electronic, in the form of Comex contracts, which are likewise nearly instantly convertible to/from other currencies.

The value of the dollar comes because people want to hold dollars.
2363  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [1343 GH] BTC Guild - Pure PPS Merged Mining, LP, SSL, Instant Payout on: January 31, 2012, 09:05:01 PM
Due to the impending server switch, I have not been making an official decision on BIP16/17.  I will likely side with whatever most of the developers have sided with, which at this time is BIP16 (the only major dissent has been from Luke).  But we will see what happens between now and the second week of February when I compile a fresh bitcoind for the new server.
Hmmm. Well, it looks like the original switch-on date of the 15th is going to get postponed, quite possibly even repeatedly, so I presume you'll be able to restart bitcoind with the appropriate options as and when necessary? Bearing in mind of course that you will lose money if you fail to postpone BIP 16 validation and your node does full validation of BIP 16 transactions in blocks before it should.

Huh?  Lose money?  What?

I don't think you understand how this works.
2364  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 on: January 31, 2012, 07:20:01 AM
1x10^15 * 0.005 = $5,000,000,000,000 equivalent

57896044618658097711785492504343953926634992332820282019728792

Do you see the difference in scales?


57,896,044,618,658,097,711,785,492,504,343,953,926,634,992,332,820,282,019,728,792
5,000,000,000,000

If old coins are ever recovered, it will be because of amazing breakthroughs in cryptography, not through better calculating machines.
2365  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 on: January 31, 2012, 03:51:02 AM
Lost coins are a short-term factor, but long-term they shouldn't be an issue. As hashing power rises, it should become progressively easier to find a particular hash sequence to allow lost coins to be used.

I think you're misinterpreting something here. Some explanations:

  • Finding a hash (more correctly "solution nonce") does not allow spending of coins. I think you mean "finding of a private key"?
  • finding the private key to an address (necessary to recover lost coins or steal coins from someone) is not the same operation as mining. Neither does it somehow happen as a byproduct of mining
  • Even if that was the case, it would be like mining at mind-boggling difficulty... just not feasable.
  • it would still be magnitudes more profitable to just simply mine for transaction fees (assuming mining subsidy is zero and all bitcoins mined) than to try to find keys to lost (or not-lost) coins. Even with half a million BTC on a single address. Therefore everyone with hardware on his hands will mine, not search the sea-floor for lost coins.

People have a hard time understanding just how big 2^256 is.

Say that bitcoin was totally distributed down to the satoshi level.  That is, all 21 million coins exist and have been spread around so that each 0.000 000 01 BTC was stored by a different keypair.  Got that?  2.1 * 1015 different key pairs.  Your job is to find one of them.

On average, how many random numbers do you have to try before you find one?

57896044618658097711785492504343953926634992332820282019728792

You are better off mining.
2366  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Patching The Bitcoin Client To Make It More Anonymous on: January 28, 2012, 01:04:56 AM
When you spend bitcoins, you redeem transactions that were previously sent to you.  To redeem a transaction, you have to redeem the whole transaction.  So, the client looks through the database and finds a set of available transactions that add up to more than your spend attempt.  It then creates a new transaction that redeems all of the selected subset and transfers the balance to the destination address.  Unless the spend amount happens somehow to be exactly the total of the redeemed transactions, there will be change due.  This change is sent to a new address pulled from your wallet's spare key pool.
2367  Economy / Speculation / Re: Block Reward changing to 25 BTC in November-December 2012 on: January 27, 2012, 03:36:09 PM
Just to clear up a few things.

The 21 million coin limit isn't in the source code anywhere.  What is in the code is a subsidy that is cut in half every 210,000 blocks.  Actually, it is an integer right-shift instead of a division, so some of the shifts take slightly more than half of the subsidy away.  The sum of the sequence as the subsidy shifts to zero is what gives the limit just under 21 million coins.  So, changing the coin generation system would require more than just commenting out the subsidy calculation.

And a few miners can't just decide to keep cranking out 50 BTC blocks and expect the rest of the network to just accept them.  Not at 51% of the hashing power, not at 70%, and not at 100%.  They would need to create a whole new network of nodes that accept them as valid.  The miners have a lot of power, but they can't force the network to accept invalid blocks as valid.

Also, we aren't approaching the end of the Mayan calendar any more than we were approaching the end of the Julian calendar in 999 AD.  They just didn't bother adding another digit on to their system, and didn't survive long enough to need to.
2368  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: How bad firewall settings can make you lose 75 BTCs on: January 26, 2012, 08:06:59 PM
I'm sorry you lost 75 bitcoins, but you really made a LOT of mistakes. Adding more layers of protection to the RPC interface isn't high on the development priority list, but if anybody wants to volunteer to keep track of number of failed RPC authentication attempts over time then be my guest and write a patch. Just be sure it isn't vulnerable to denial-of-service attacks by people deliberately generating failed login attempts.

I suggested a second logfile for security matters so that tools like fail2ban could monitor something with less volume than debug.log.  Adding a second logfile seems much easier than implementing the lockout yourself.
2369  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 07:00:40 PM
look at how Gavin himself wrote it in his post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60433.0

OP_HASH160 <hash> OP_EQUAL
OP_0 <signature> OP_PUSHDATA(2 <pubkey1> <pubkey2> 2 OP_CHECKMULTISIG)

the code is "OP_PUSHDATA"
"2 <pubkey1> <pubkey2> 2 OP_CHECKMULTISIG" is data
then, this previously pushed data gets executed

while in BIP17:
<hash> OP_CODEHASHVERIFY OP_POP
OP_0 <signature> OP_CODESEPARATOR 2 <pubkey1> <pubkey2> 2 OP_CHECKMULTISIG
no tricks are used...

my problem with the idea of executing data is that it is the basis of a lot of hacks in other software

So, your objection is to OP_PUSHDATA?  I only bring it up because BIP17 does that implicitly.  It bangs both parts together and executes them as one.  Go dig for Gavin's objections to BIP17 where he explains that bitcoin used to work this way, and why it does not today.
2370  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 06:28:16 PM
BIP17:
   scriptSig: [signatures...] OP_CODESEPARATOR 2 [pubkey1] [pubkey2] [pubkey3] 3 OP_CHECKMULTISIG
   scriptPubKey: [20-byte-hash of {2 [pubkey1] [pubkey2] [pubkey3] 3 OP_CHECKMULTISIG} ] OP_CHECKHASHVERIFY OP_DROP
code is in green data in black. at what point do you execute data?
BIP16:
   scriptSig: [signature] {[pubkey] OP_CHECKSIG}
   scriptPubKey: OP_HASH160 [20-byte-hash of {[pubkey] OP_CHECKSIG} ] OP_EQUAL

data in bold is being executed
this is semsntics. you can call everything in both sigs "data" and be done with it.

In the current setup, scriptPubKey is the code, and scriptSig is the data.  If BIP17 isn't executing code by virtue of reclassifying scriptSig into "code", then none of the others are either.

In my view, the script in the transaction output is "code", and whatever is needed to redeem it is "data".  By that definition, all three are executing data.  If you prefer to think of things that are executed as code wherever they may be, then none of them execute data, but that is pretty silly, since it would reduce your credo against executing code into "be careful that you don't execute things that you don't execute".
2371  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 04:10:00 PM
the way i see it BIP17 hashes code rather than execute data, but i guess its semantics

Sigh.  They all hash code and they all execute data.  The hash is used to verify that the data executed was the data intended to be executed.
2372  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: How bad firewall settings can make you lose 75 BTCs on: January 26, 2012, 03:38:37 PM
The interesting part is for such a theft to happen, the thief needed to know that there was an accessible bitcoind on that IP. So, either it is someone close to OP who's stealing him, or there are hackers with crawlers searching for such vulnerable nodes. The latter sounds quite possible, what would mean people using bitcoind RPC should really pay attention to their access rules.

Every node on the network knows the IP addresses of every other node.  More or less.  And the port is well known.

except rpc port which could be changed freely. -rpcport=<port>

I'm changing my RPC ports to a higher area (10000+) to keep my wallets safe. It's set to allow *.*.*.* with very simple username and password.

You do know that it is trivial to scan all 65535 ports to find the bitcoin RPC interface, right?  And now that you've posted this, I'd be willing to bet that whoever wrote the brute force tool is modifying it to portscan right now.
2373  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 03:34:59 PM
my opinion is similar to steve's
BIP16 does look like something that can cause trouble down the road
1) the way i understood it, BIP16 pushes something on the stack as data and the executes it. Executing data is something i was taught to avoid at any cost
2) BIP17 looks like a more elegant solution that better fits the script's design.

but i am still concerened about possible security issues BIP17 might bring right now..
maybe the solution is wait till somebody has a better idea

CHV (BIP17) also executes data, as does OP_EVAL (BIP12).  The debate is over how to execute the data, not whether to execute it.
2374  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 03:13:32 PM
Hey Tycho, as long as you are here, I see that one of your objections to BIP16 is the magic transaction pattern.  Would you be more comfortable if there was an opcode that triggered the BIP16 mechanism?

I've seen that same objection from a few people, and I have to admit that I have quite a bit of sympathy for that view.

I suggested that we reuse one of the OP_NOPx opcodes as OP_P2SH.  It would remain very much like a NOP in that it did nothing direct, but it set a flag in the interpreter to tell it to invoke the P2SH mechanism if the rest of the script was valid.  Gavin wasn't a big fan, but I think he saw it as pointless rather than harmful.  If the target date slips by without support (and it looks like it will), then it might become more useful.
2375  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 02:21:41 PM
He is for BIP16.
And I don't know how he is going to mine enough voting blocks before 1 Feb.
I think the deadlines are right now the biggest problem and many seem to agree with that. This has a very low chance of working out with these deadlines I believe, but there can always be a new vote.

Well, it isn't really a deadline.  More like a target.  And since we are already into the 7 day window and support has been underwhelming, I think it safe to say that the target will be missed.  So the debate will rage on while support starts creeping in.

I totally sympathize with Gavin though.  I've spent a lot of time on various committees, so I've seen firsthand that no group ever takes a task seriously until the last minute.
2376  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / request: security log file on: January 26, 2012, 12:29:08 PM
There is brute-force tool that targets bitcoin RPC active in the wild.  See this thread.

Can we get an optional low volume log file to be used to report things like failed RPC requests?  Ideally the format should be simple and contain the IP address, so that it can be parsed by fail2ban or other tools.  I think that these failures are already logged, but I don't think that I'd want to point fail2ban at the firehose that is debug.log.

Having RPC throttling built in would probably be safer for most people, but adding a second log file seems easier.
2377  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: How bad firewall settings can make you lose 75 BTCs on: January 26, 2012, 12:23:10 PM
The interesting part is for such a theft to happen, the thief needed to know that there was an accessible bitcoind on that IP. So, either it is someone close to OP who's stealing him, or there are hackers with crawlers searching for such vulnerable nodes. The latter sounds quite possible, what would mean people using bitcoind RPC should really pay attention to their access rules.

Every node on the network knows the IP addresses of every other node.  More or less.  And the port is well known.
2378  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BIP 16 / 17 in layman's terms on: January 26, 2012, 06:35:10 AM
Right now, it looks like one person/pool (Tycho/deepbit) has enough hashing power to veto any change. I believe Tycho liked, and planned to support, the original OP_EVAL proposal, but doesn't like/support either BIP 16 or BIP 17 (he does like/support BIP 11, the multisignature-as-standard-transactions part of all this), so unless he changes his mind or there is a mass exodus from his pool short, multisignature bitcoin addresses will have to wait.

Gavin, do you know what he objects to in P2SH and/or CHV?
2379  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: [Proposal] Merkle tree of unspent transactions (MTUT) on: January 25, 2012, 09:57:33 PM
If this was just pruning, then I'd agree with you that he had more important things to do.  But this is way beyond mere pruning.  This effectively moves all of the state and all of the history of the entire system into the current block.
2380  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Concerns: The Centralization of a Decentralize Currency on: January 25, 2012, 08:16:56 PM
Could there be other incentives to hack pools?
Not only to attack Bitcoin but also to use the power to break passwords?

No.  Mining isn't like that.
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