Maybe 1337 total or so.
...
Just kidding i troll.... cant help myself.
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There is absolutely *nothing* conservative about 1% of the hashrate. The phrase you're looking for is "pipe dream."
This is a bit harsh. However I agree that 1% is not conservative. We will need to maintain a hashrate as follows for 1% all throughout 2014: Jan - 500 TH/s June - 32,000 TH/s December - 2,000,000 TH/s |
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I did a quick napkin calculation of ActM's valuation and future expected dividend.
Please help me correct this if I got it wrong somewhere.
Okey, so I'm thinking of next year, in average ActM can hold 1% of the market share of mining.
Hopefully they'll manage to have a higher %, but I'm going to be conservative here.
Their sales numbers might also be very low, let's assume they only cover the electricity + other costs of the company, so in total, that 1% of market share mining is profit that is going to be dividend payout.
Total number of BTC mined during 2014: BTC1,314,000
ActM mines and pays out as dividend (1%): BTC13,140
13,140 divided with 10,000,000 shares: BTC0.001314
That is twice the current share price.
What am I missing here?
That 1% figure is where you are going wrong. This variable is the most crucial thing and right now many investors do not believe the company can ever sustain 1% 1% is not conservative, its actually a really difficult number to hit. Bitcoins being mined right now will be the easiest Bitcoins to be mined for the entire future of this currency, its unlikely we'll ever see mining this easy again. So every delay kills another opportunity to mine these "easy" Bitcoins. If we managed to hit 1%, to maintain that ratio we would have to increase our mining power by 40% every difficulty change. This may require huge reinvestment. I am hoping this is achievable and I believe in Ken to do the right thing. |
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The problem with your reasoning is no, everyone doesn't know how risky their "investments" are. Pirateat40 investors didn't, "insured pass-through" investors didn't, and, judging by the wailing & gnashing of teeth everywhere from ActM to Cloudhashing to Labcoin to choose-your-stock, those "investors" didn't either.
I see nothing wrong with a exchange offering securities where it is up to the investor to make decisions. I can trade forex and on the NASDAQ with no one telling me what to do or someone telling me I must go back to the Xbox because this is too risky for me, if this is the case why can we not have an exchange offering similar odds but for far smaller companies? Also I can buy facebook and soon twitter shares, the SEC does not do the due diligence for me, the SEC has determined that they are not cooking books and that they are not lying in the reports and that seems to be the extent. The SEC is not being a nanny, many companies during the dot com bubble failed and that was just nature. The only difference here is that setting up a company to list on an established exchange is too expensive for the potential gains, and this new law seeks to rectify that issue. Please Crumbs, when was the last time SEC vetted the business models of the companies listed on public exchanges in the US? |
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The average time before bitcoin-denominated stock fails or is shown proven to be a scam is ~ 1/2 a year.
This lends itself to, as you say, "playing games," but becomes a headache with government regulations in place.
If the new law allows companies to advertise stock to the public whilst being risky then I see no issue. I imagine the system will be in a similar vein to Kickstarter, where instead of just backing the company with donations you can invest instead. Because this is open to the consumer it is up to the consumer to do due diligence. Kickstarters fail all the time, everyone knows the risk they take when they lay down cash. If the new law allows companies to be formed in that fashion, I see no issues with failed stock. Companies do fail all the time, in fact that vast majority of businesses will not survive past a year, its not just unique to Bitcoin. The exchange will have to tell the user the vast majority of companies fail, and thats just plain nature, no other way about it. |
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i think, maybe too much traffic, ppl cash in/out as day draws closer, therefore you fell victim for car crash and you in limbo middle of desert. if it makes sense, reward me some bitcoins, my sig I thought the deadline was end of December? |
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Considering he once lost over 100 Bitcoin on Just-Dice without breaking a sweat I reckon he is holding much more than 1000 Bitcoin. Easily. |
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Right you. Just stop!
I want to post happy things, but the difficulty jumps scare me and make me sad. My posts just reflect on this rather unfortunate situation. |
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160,959 ฿0.0008840
Another massive wall has formed... Please may we be blessed with powerful eASIC miners soon! |
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I wonder where Ukyo is? October 12, 2013, 04:48:04 AM
October 12, 2013, 04:46:24 AM
September 30, 2013, 10:36:57 AM
Only two posts since September... I hope he is not preparing for a shutdown, I really wish he would come online. |
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If he is in the U.S. he must register as a broker / dealer to operate Bitfunder, whether he allows U.S. residents to participate or not.
What I don't understand is why does he not register? The person who bites the bullet and offers the first US legal Bitcoin stock exchange stands to become billionaire rich over the next decade. People join startups and risk 5 years of their life for an opportunity such as this. Ukyo stands to gain so much if he navigated the system instead of playing games. Anyway, once the crowdfunding law comes into effect someone will dominate this space, be that Bitfunder or someone else. The obvious problem is none of the securities on offer are registered, so becoming a licensed exchange is sort-a pointless  Except the new law would make registering securities on kickstarter like websites far easier. I am suggesting Ukyo prepare for this change in law and take advantage of it. If this law comes into effect, making many of our stocks legal is within reason. |
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If he is in the U.S. he must register as a broker / dealer to operate Bitfunder, whether he allows U.S. residents to participate or not.
What I don't understand is why does he not register? The person who bites the bullet and offers the first US legal Bitcoin stock exchange stands to become billionaire rich over the next decade. People join startups and risk 5 years of their life for an opportunity such as this. Ukyo stands to gain so much if he navigated the system instead of playing games. Anyway, once the crowdfunding law comes into effect someone will dominate this space, be that Bitfunder or someone else. |
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Dr Greg is correct about the nature of a hedge fund.
In this situation, the structure of the BTC Growth fund allowed investors to mostly survive the massive market crash that wiped out many investments. I would be surprised if anyone elses diverse portfolio did anywhere near as good as BTC Growth.
Of course the odd person that was mostly in just 1 or 2 investments may have done better but for a diverse fund I can't imagine anyone doing as well as the doctor.
Greg, I hope you return with another investment opportunity at some point.
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I hope Ken has an ace up his sleeve.
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I'm still new to this, so I'm probably stating the obvious, but after playing around with the data at the genesis block, it would seem that breaking even with any product currently on the market is going to be impossible as we approach Spring of 2014 (this was assuming 100% difficulty increase per month).
It seems safe to assume sales will drop as people realize there is no ROI; focus shifts for the big guys to mining.
I'm thinking that, at that point, only the most innovative companies will survive. I'm hoping that ActiveMining can be one of those companies, but we will see...
The best long-term investment is probably just buying and holding bitcoin, but this is more fun I must say.
This is true, if you buy mining hardware you are going to have a very hard time making ROI. Only the companies profit and what companies are winning? Private companies where the profit remains with a few people. This is the new 1% |
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I think the sad thing about the current situation is that the private companies are making all the money now.
ActiveMining was a chance to give Bitcoin back to the people, but now it looks like greedy private interests will be king.
The people selling the shovels win, and the success now is in private.
We have all lost, about 10 people have won.
The new 1%
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You are also posting old quotes you made yourself. Not very narcissistic, but.
I asked him to find his old posts where he called out this operation. At the moment I still believe in ActM, but I guess I have a bias. |
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To put this into perspective, if we cloned the fastest supercomputer in the world right now and made one for every atom in not one, but 100,000 people, we would have the capability to crack Bitcoin addresses through brute force. Math: (speed of current top super in flops, times amount of atoms in a human times 100,000, this gives 1 order of magnitude larger than needed to assume 10 flop operation equilviant is required for creating a Bitcoin addresses and testing balance) http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=38+x+10%5E15+x+7+x+10%5E27+x+10%5E5Top super: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianhe-2 |
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Ken's keeping his cards very close to his chest so this means when he decides to break radio silence it will be with news of a major development.  I expect we will have fully working FAST-HAST miners already stress tested and fully operational BEFORE Ken tells us anything.  Mark my words.  This makes no sense, why would he want to maintain radio silence in the first place? Our competitors have one single mode: Mine as many Bitcoins as possible, no information from any other company will change this. |
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