[ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated]

[knybe]

So... Is this the tunnel at the end of the light?

[drawingthesun]

I hope Ken has an ace up his sleeve.

[Sou]

One thing i think we should be considering is liquid cooling; if we're able to over clock the chips enough to justify the cost of the setup then it should really be done. The potential to get more out of every chip, and eliminate some longterm cooling cost is something we can't ignore it. We need to adapt, and stay on the cutting edge. The profit we get from mining will be thin, and based on efficiency.

[somestranger]

This is true, if you buy mining hardware you are going to have a very hard time making ROI. Only the companies profit and what companies are winning? Private companies where the profit remains with a few people.

This is the new 1%

Mostly private companies, but then there are companies like ActiveMining.

[crumbs]

This is true, if you buy mining hardware you are going to have a very hard time making ROI. Only the companies profit and what companies are winning? Private companies where the profit remains with a few people.

This is the new 1%

Mostly private companies, but then there are companies like ActiveMining.

Unlike KNC, ActM has failed to manufacture or deliver any product.
Unlike Hasfast, ActM has even failed at selling own vaporware.
Unlike Asicminer, no one here got rich.
What's your point?

[zumzero]

mumble, you are indeed a nasty piece of work.  Jesus wants a quiet word..

If I'm reciting the alphabet aloud, I haven't failed when I get to the letter W, provided I make it through to the letter Z.

The problem with your FUD is that you jump in everytime ActM get to the next letter in the alphabet, proclaiming that it has already failed when in reality, the letters keep being enunciated.

We are getting very, very close to the end of the alphabet and your remarks only strengthen our resolve.

Here's a reminder of our long journey (with pictures for mumble's benefit) ...

[Stuartuk]

nice one zero. lol

[drawingthesun]

160,959    ฿0.0008840

Another massive wall has formed...

Please may we be blessed with powerful eASIC miners soon!

[crumbs]

[spergingz]

[zumzero]

160,959    ฿0.0008840

Another massive wall has formed...

Please may we be blessed with powerful eASIC miners soon!

Right you.   Just stop!

EDIT:   I mean your doom and gloom isn't helping anyone.  Everyone is feeling it at this difficult stage.  

[drawingthesun]

Right you.   Just stop!

I want to post happy things, but the difficulty jumps scare me and make me sad.

My posts just reflect on this rather unfortunate situation.

[stenkross]

I did a quick napkin calculation of ActM's valuation and future expected dividend.
Please help me correct this if I got it wrong somewhere.

Okey, so I'm thinking of next year, in average ActM can hold 1% of the market share of mining.
Hopefully they'll manage to have a higher %, but I'm going to be conservative here.
Their sales numbers might also be very low, let's assume they only cover the electricity + other costs of the company, so in total, that 1% of market share mining is profit that is going to be dividend payout.

Total number of BTC mined during 2014: BTC1,314,000
ActM mines and pays out as dividend (1%): BTC13,140
13,140 divided with 10,000,000 shares: BTC0.001314

That is twice the current share price.
What am I missing here?

[crumbs]

I did a quick napkin calculation of ActM's valuation and future expected dividend.
Please help me correct this if I got it wrong somewhere.

Okey, so I'm thinking of next year, in average ActM can hold 1% of the market share of mining.
Hopefully they'll manage to have a higher %, but I'm going to be conservative here.
Their sales numbers might also be very low, let's assume they only cover the electricity + other costs of the company, so in total, that 1% of market share mining is profit that is going to be dividend payout.

Total number of BTC mined during 2014: BTC1,314,000
ActM mines and pays out as dividend (1%): BTC13,140
13,140 divided with 10,000,000 shares: BTC0.001314

That is twice the current share price.
What am I missing here?

There is absolutely *nothing* conservative about 1% of the hashrate.  The phrase you're looking for is "pipe dream."
Thus far, ActM controls roughly 0% of the hashrate.
The sales figures thus far represent what's commonly known as "debt" -- ActM *owes* the devices it sold to the unfortunate "customers."
There is no evidence of anything else., other than most American money leaving ActM & share prices tanking.
That's what you are missing.

[drawingthesun]

I did a quick napkin calculation of ActM's valuation and future expected dividend.
Please help me correct this if I got it wrong somewhere.

Okey, so I'm thinking of next year, in average ActM can hold 1% of the market share of mining.
Hopefully they'll manage to have a higher %, but I'm going to be conservative here.
Their sales numbers might also be very low, let's assume they only cover the electricity + other costs of the company, so in total, that 1% of market share mining is profit that is going to be dividend payout.

Total number of BTC mined during 2014: BTC1,314,000
ActM mines and pays out as dividend (1%): BTC13,140
13,140 divided with 10,000,000 shares: BTC0.001314

That is twice the current share price.
What am I missing here?

That 1% figure is where you are going wrong. This variable is the most crucial thing and right now many investors do not believe the company can ever sustain 1%

1% is not conservative, its actually a really difficult number to hit. Bitcoins being mined right now will be the easiest Bitcoins to be mined for the entire future of this currency, its unlikely we'll ever see mining this easy again. So every delay kills another opportunity to mine these "easy" Bitcoins.

If we managed to hit 1%, to maintain that ratio we would have to increase our mining power by 40% every difficulty change.

This may require huge reinvestment.

I am hoping this is achievable and I believe in Ken to do the right thing.

[drawingthesun]

There is absolutely *nothing* conservative about 1% of the hashrate.  The phrase you're looking for is "pipe dream."

This is a bit harsh. However I agree that 1% is not conservative.

We will need to maintain a hashrate as follows for 1% all throughout 2014:

Jan - 500 TH/s
June - 32,000 TH/s
December - 2,000,000 TH/s

[kleeck]

There is absolutely *nothing* conservative about 1% of the hashrate.  The phrase you're looking for is "pipe dream."

This is a bit harsh. However I agree that 1% is not conservative.

We will need to maintain a hashrate as follows for 1% all throughout 2014:

Jan - 500 TH/s
June - 32,000 TH/s
December - 2,000,000 TH/s

While I appreciate you working off of the numbers we currently have, expecting the hashrate to forever increase by 40% every adjustment period is probably not realistic on a long-term view. The problem is that we don't really know what to expect through 2014. Eventually things will die down, but when? And by how much?

By the way, I say the same thing about the BTC/USD price. People calculate the price by EOY 2014 based on limited data. "ZOMG 37% growth this month! 500$/BTC within Q1 2014!" Probably not, man.

Probably not.

[Ozymandias]

I'm starting to think that I may need to re-evaluate my own estimates as 1% of the network seems way too low for a company that is developing its own chips. Hell, in my calculations 3-5% of the network (and this is just mining, without hardware sales which could add another 3-5%) is closer to my pessimistic projections than my luck neutral projections.

Regardless, unfortunately I'm finding it it more and more difficult to view my shares as an investment due to how in the dark I am about our progress, but I can probably hold on to them a few more months if I just view it as a long-term gamble.

[crumbs]

1% of the network seems way too low due to how in the dark I am about our progress.

Here's a shorter way of saying the same thing.  UR welcome.

[minerpart]

We will need to maintain a hashrate as follows for 1% all throughout 2014:

Jan - 500 TH/s
June - 32,000 TH/s
December - 2,000,000 TH/s

I think most people are looking as the difficulty question and the hugeness of the apparent possibilities blinds them a bit.

One thing to remember is for example a 500% increase in difficulty for ACtM is the same for their competitors. Every industrial scale mining operation has the same issue of how they will they keep their market share? If ACtM need to upscale their operation by 500% well so do all the others. How will ACtM do it? Well how will any company do it? If it can't be done across the board for logistics/funding issues then will that rise in hashing difficulty occur?

We know not all mining is done by large outfits, but there will be a finite number of people with the interest and cash available to order a home mining rig. When does the home market reach saturation point? Is it close? (any one have any accurate figures on % of home miners vrs % of industrial outfits?)

A good way I think to look at ACtM's prospects is in terms of % of 'global production'. Lets pretend for a second that ACtM make not miners but golf clubs. Lets also say the market for golf clubs is rising by 100% a month and all manufactured clubs are bought by eager golfers. Lets also say that ACtM have a deal with a very very successful golf club manufacturer, lets call them eASIGolf. Now in that situation would we think that ACtM could initially capture 1% of the global golf club market? Bearing in mind they have a couple of mill USD to have eASICGolf design and fab the latest tech clubs. I think that is more than likely. Now there are already several established golf club makers on the market but still the 1% seems to me to be conservative. Lets, move on 2 months, the golf club market has expanded, can ACtM ramp up production to meet demand? Well yes, everyone else is having to so there is no reason why eASIGolf can't knock out more and more sets of clubs. 1% of a global market worth say 400 million USD per year is not actually all that big a deal. It's only 4mill USD isn't it?

[Sou]

I'm starting to think that I may need to re-evaluate my own estimates as 1% of the network seems way too low for a company that is developing its own chips. Hell, in my calculations 3-5% of the network (and this is just mining, without hardware sales which could add another 3-5%) is closer to my pessimistic projections than my luck neutral projections.

Regardless, unfortunately I'm finding it it more and more difficult to view my shares as an investment due to how in the dark I am about our progress, but I can probably hold on to them a few more months if I just view it as a long-term gamble.

We're making a 24TH miner...assuming we could afford more than 1 of our own miners, i'd say 1% is a tad low.