Balls of steel or too greedy?
People selling coins so they can buy back cheaper to increase their BTC total = greedy. People not selling their coins because they believe the value will shoot up higher again sooner or later = common sense. In a bear market, the opposite is true. Uber-bulls are greedy and will have to sell even lower. Bears are the ones with common sense. |
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How are we supposed to crash with all these buyers, damnit.
Those buyers won't be available to provide support at lower price levels. Let the suckers buy high now, that's good for the bears. |
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Question: why does the discrepancy between trading.i286 and blockchained persist?
This is going on for two days already, the bid sum and ask sum on blockchained keep being
significantly lower than on trading.i286. Like 34M$ vs. 37M$ and 33kBTC vs. 39kBTC.
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Good news don't make bitcoin skyrocket, it's the upward pressure that does.
Meaning that buyer pressure is higher than seller pressure, and this comes from extra fiat entering the exchanges, and less coins being sold, hoping for higher prices.
That extra fiat comes mostly from increased notoriety and good news, but now it's slowing down, and soon seller pressure will get stronger.
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Google trends shows a decrease in Chinese interest in bitcoin, larger than the rest of the world, probably incoming fiat is weak.
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One 1,500 coins dump and other smaller, according to trading.i286
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Eaten. China is taking a plunge and Gox follows.
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Some uber-bulls chose to ignore the 'bears only' title, again. This time it was followed by a 'please'. What does it take to keep uber-bulls out of a thread?
If the current market is going to follow EW patterns, then the very bottom has to be no higher than 495$ (Gox price).
That's because corrective wave C has to be at least as large (% wise IMO) as corrective wave A.
If the market will behave like in April, then the very bottom could be in the 250$ - 300$ range.
But the bottom depends heavily on how many coins will be panic sold when most of the market understands that it's a bear market.
And that's impossible to predict IMO, could be 50K more or 150K more, with hugely different outcomes.
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Because we are probably in a bear market.
Probably because the drop from 1242$ to 576$ was corrective wave A, the rise to 1069$ was wave B, and now the market entered corrective wave C. But right now the price is still at 920$, so to confirm this the price has to further drop today or tomorrow to 700$ - 750$, and much lower within a week. |
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On a side-note: that issue of the "news following the waves" got me thinking. I think there's quite some truth to it.
I guess our favorite perma-bear Blitz made a very good example. Price action does indeed "unlock" events. To me it looks more like insiders delaying public diffusion of news until their price targets have been met. Otherwise, it's quite odd for news to follow waves (price movements). |
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yep!!!
$700 is the new $150
This is going to be tested very soon...  |
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In a couple of hours the scenario saying that the bottom was at 576$ (Gox price) is going to be tested.
A sub-wave may be ending, and if the price drop will be large, then more drops will follow the next days.
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1,242 / 266 * 50 ~= 233. Based on the current look of the market, between 200$ and 300$, and it will take several days to reach it.
Of course, if the market will look a lot different tomorrow, this estimate won't hold. It's simply too early to call the bottom.
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OP, during the April crash the price dropped from 266$ to 110$, rebound to 200$, dropped to 130$, then back to 180$, but eventually found the bottom at about 50$.
It's possible that the current crash will follow a similar pattern, so my advice is to choose your profit taking point and sell there.
PS. And OP, why are you looking 'every 30 min'? Don't you use bitcoinwisdom, for a more accurate (almost real-time) image of the unfolding events?
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Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know).
It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle.
Today we had the news that baidu no longer accepts bitcoins. Nothing more nothing less and more important no waves. News can only trigger large market moves earlier (waves, sub-waves), but those happen even in the absence of news. |
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And this small correction was just the prelude to the crash, all market indicators show really bad.
Like which ones? Indicators like stochastic RSI, money flow index and MACD looked bad, and the ~300$ price drop that followed confirmed my post. But it wasn't the April 10th style of crash that I was expecting, this market is different, most sellers hold tight for now. If several hours from now, or even tomorrow 3rd December (if volume stays low) there will start another 300$ - 400$ price drop, then the scenario that I find most probable now, that the market has started capitulation, will be confirmed. The total drop from 1242$ to 840$ was about 30%, while the drop at the end of a supporting sub-wave has usually been about 10%, so that drop fits much better with the first large drop of capitulation than with another type. Today we got the confirmation that the market is in corrective wave C (I shouldn't have written 'capitulation' for the whole wave C, I know). It took several days longer than I expected, and right now I can't tell where exactly in wave C the market is, probably in the middle. |
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What is going on is corrective wave C. If you still want to buy, wait until it hits the bottom, but you probably won't be able to recognize it.
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A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means I call the very bottom of wave C capitulation. If you have a better term for it, please enlighten me. |
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A pure bear market of 1 year would be terrible, you guys should think twice before saying that.
From April to July 2013 there were 3 failed bull markets, followed by bear markets that ended in capitulation at 50$,
80$ and 67$, and after that a fully developed bull market was able to grow. So only about 3 months from 266$,
and from the current high prices it may take longer than 3 months. But a pure bear market of 1 year could drive the price to
single digits, and that would be terrible. I hope the upcoming failed bull markets / bear markets won't last longer than 6 months.
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Yes i'd like to sell more but for mysterious reasons bitstamp is blocking all bitcoins deposits today...
Maybe they already got a huge bitcoin deposit yesterday, and today they want to sell their own stash before others do. |
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