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I promised BayAreaCoins that I'll stop posting negatively about his service.
I've made my position very clear already; there's no need for me to say anything more on the subject.
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Hi, I'm a beginner in cryptocurrency so be indulgent  I think that the best way to promote CLAM (and the digging for CLAMs  ) is to create a wallet that isn't a full node (simplified validation), like Multibit for Bitcoin, as waiting for the download of the blockchain may be unpleasing/annoying. What do you think? It's a good idea. Are there any SPV clients that support any altcoins at all? I've no idea how much work would be involved - I don't have the first idea about how SPV works. |
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Try strikesapphire.com. I got banned, but the last I heard they weren't shuffling every hand. The penetration was very poor, but I think the game was still +EV if played right.
Would you like to share why they banned you? were you winning too much? very curious about it I was winning too much, but I was also reporting too many bugs, being too pedantic about stuff, and taking advantage of +EV offers. I was also referring friends to the site and the owner thought they weren't real people, even after having spoken to at least one of them on Skype with me. |
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Errr, sorry for the miscommunication. I am just thinking that wouldn't 2x payout give you the best chance of winning at 49.5 % with a 1% house edge? Wouldn't that be the best expected value in return? I am not good at math nor am I declaring I am, I just figured it would be the best strategy and could very well be wrong, I will admit it. Let me know if that clears it up for you
No, the expected value is -1% of everything you risk. If you bet 1 BTC at 49.5% your expected value is -0.01 BTC. If you make smaller bets with a higher payout multiplier you can win the 1 BTC but expect to risk less and so your expected value will be higher (closer to zero). See my post here which lays out such a sequence which gives you a 49.649% chance of doubling your bankroll, compared to the 49.5% chance offered by the single 2x bet you propose. |
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I don't think it is possible to have anything better then a 2x bet at any dice site. That should give you your best odds to actually win.
What are you trying to say? What would be "better" than a 2x bet? A 3x bet has a higher payout, but a 1.5x bet has a higher chance of winning. Which is better? Why is 2x "best"? What do you mean by "best odds"? It's hard to argue against what you say when what you say is too fuzzy to grasp onto, even though what you're trying to say is almost certainly incorrect. |
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What happened here is he dug up his 4.6 CLAMs for free on his own using the CLAM client, then gave the same private key to clamchecker. Clamchecker then worked its magic, leaving the guy out of pocket. Usually clamchecker customers only see the 3.5 CLAM or 0.005 BTC payment and don't get to see the 4.6 CLAM they could have had, but this example nicely illustrates the business model. [ Edit: it appears that people have misunderstood the above paragraph. I'm not saying clamchecker is being deceptive. I am saying that the end user doesn't usually see his 4.6 CLAM being replaced by a smaller amount like he did in this case. That is all. ] If anyone wants to send me 4.6 CLAMs I will gladly pay them 4 CLAMs for each 4.6 they send me. This is much better than the 3.5 CLAM that clamchecker pays and is therefore a valuable contribution to the community. Right? |
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Yeah, his description matches JD, and he said it looks the same, so I think that's what he was talking about. Not sure about old balances but I think they're lost now.
Old balances aren't lost. The old accounts still work but I'll need to manually process any old BTC withdrawals. |
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Ahh touché, forgot I wrote that. I can't remember if you own dooglus on mp or if that's an imposter, so I've credited the 0.1 btc to dooglus on bustabit. Enjoy!
Thanks! I own both accounts by the way. |
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i remember i invest in a gambling site that time when 1btc is around 50usd. the profit is only about 250btc, 1k reserved btc and someone just come in to wipe out the profit and hit on the reserved. i was online that time and i was horrified when i see he keep winning big and bigger. in the end, he won like 320btc.
BTC hasn't been around $50 since March 2013, which was 3 months before I launched the first gambling site that took public investments. |
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On the flip side, there is at least one investor (maybe multiple) that divests, plays and profits, then reinvests it all. Same happens with JD.
When he does this, it's bad for all the other investors. He's not part of the bankroll while he's winning, so the rest of the investors take a disproportionately large share of the losses. On JD we've sometimes seen a chain reaction occur - some player wins big, so an investor feels like he has to divest-win-reinvest, which causes the other investors to lose more, making them in turn to the same thing. Eventually one of the investors suffers heavy losses, but until that happens it can look like being invested in a dice bankroll is a bad idea. |
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any word on why cryptsy CLAMs wont withdraw?
pending now day3
Make sure you put in a support ticket. The same thing happened to me on Cryptsy. This was their response:
"I am really sorry for any inconvenience this may have cause you. However, we are seeing a delay when it comes to processing CLAM transactions. Our technical support team is aware of this issue and they are working on a fix. Please know that you have the option to cancel these transactions to return the coins back to your balance if you like. Just kindly let me know by responding to this ticket so I can process it for you. We greatly appreciate your understanding and patience."After this happened 3 times, I finally transferred everything out. I was wondering if they were holding the CLAMs for staking. Very Odd. This is very strange. If they're having a problem with their CLAM wallet, why don't they report an issue in the CLAM bug tracker? 3 day delays are not normal. The longest I've even seen the client take to make a withdrawal in around 60 seconds. The coin selection code can be slow when it has a massive pile of outputs to chose between. |
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Thanks for the reply!
It is worth mentioning that splitting your piles smaller will not increase your absolute chance to stake (assuming all piles are mature). Right, but it won't decrease it either. Your expected return is the same from your actively staking CLAMs no matter what size piles you use. The things that change are: 1) the percentage of time each unit of value spends maturing (this goes down the more you split) 2) the amount of CPU it takes to check for staking opportunitys (this goes up the more you split) 3) the size of the transaction when you eventually want to spend your coins (this goes up the more you split) So that's the tradeoff - balance 1 against 2 and 3. |
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Is there a similar way to calculate odds of hitting certain cards in poker, as well? Like let's say you have two hearts and two came out on the flop. There's two cards left to draw, and there are 9 hearts left that you can't see. Is there a quick/easy way to calculate odds using the # of outs per draw, rather than doing two separate calculations?
I don't think the binomial distribution helps you with that specific case, because the odds of drawing another heart change on the turn and river - it's 9/47 on the turn, and either 8/46 or 9/47 on the river (depending on whether you drew a heart on the turn). The binomial distribution is useful when the individual probabilities don't change - ie. when the events are independent of each other - like dice rolls, or bustabit games. Edit: having said that, you can get pretty close if you ignore the fact that the probabilities change slightly as you draw. Assuming the probability of drawing a heart is 9 in (52-5), the chances of drawing 0, 1, or 2 more hearts in 2 cards are: 0 2 19.15% 0 65.37% 1 2 19.15% 0 30.96% 2 2 19.15% 0 3.67% A rule of thumb is that you double the number of outs to get the percentage chance of drawing on the turn: 9 outs, 18% on turn, 18% on river, 36% total. |
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EDIT: I just checked, and yes it will. Please change the title of this thread to the following:
Gleb Gamow Bruno Kucinskas is a Scammer, a Thief, a Liar and an Extortionist Pig
<feel free to put a disclaimer in the OP that I suggested the change if such would make you feel more comfortable>
But the title of this thread is simply the title of the other thread prefixed by "Re: ", because it is about the other thread. Edit: also, it doesn't fit. I can't type any more characters. Edit2: don't rely on client-side input validation. Edit3: it turns out the server truncates the subject at 100 characters anyway |
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The number of games with crashpoint >= 2.06 in a total of 1686 games should follow a binomial distribution of N = 1686 and p = 47.814538%. So the chance to have less than or equal to 777 wins is 0.081149924, which is very close to the number dooglus obtained by simulation.
I didn't post my results, but they were like this: -122 0.0001
-110 0.0002
-108 0.0005
-106 0.0007
-104 0.0008
-102 0.0011
-100 0.0015
[...]
-6 2.7609
-4 3.0792
-2 3.4406
0 3.8267
2 4.2453
4 4.7016
6 5.207
[...]
68 45.466
70 47.3885
72 49.3342
74 51.2791
76 53.2283
78 55.1682
[...]
130 91.8775
[...]
268 100.0 So 91.8775% chance of a difference of 130 or less, and so a 100 - 91.8775 = 8.1225% chance of a difference of 132 or more. That's really pretty close the 8.1149924% you calculated. |
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Wow, taking big hits to my investment from some lucky high-roller. Let's hope his luck runs out before my bankroll does, haha.
Edit: God damn it, this always happens to me. I divest all when I see my investment plummeting and as soon as I divest, the investor profit goes almost all the way back to where it was. Lost 10 days worth of investment in 10 minutes.
You're doing it wrong. Why would you divest right after taking a loss? The guy you lost to is likely to keep playing, and likely to lose his winnings if he does. As an investor you want high volume. (Note: I also do it wrong, because I too get scared by big bets). |
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So do I win?
Yeah, yours is the best so far  ! But a couple weeks before you posted that, I had already given the bounty to blockage  Yeah, but you also said: added 0.1 to blockage's account. If someone can beat his solution, I'll give them 0.1 as well.
On a side note, most of the replies to this thread are pretty hilarious. Seems like people don't like reading
Most people aren't very good at following instructions. Your OP is pretty clear. You want to maximise the chance of doubling 1 BTC using a well-defined sequence of bets. I'm glad you find it hilarious. Personally it makes me feel hopeless. |
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Challenge: The person who provides the best way to win 1 BTC using a bankroll of 1 BTC. I will give 0.1 BTC to (payable to their moneypot account).
When does this competition end? The best 3 strategies I've seen so far, in reverse order, are: leading to a 49.64716% chance of winning.
you have a 49.64812% chance of winning.
chance of winning = 100 * (1 - ((100 - 1.0664) / 100) ** 64) = 49.649475445976265%
So do I win? |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1012713 is locked. Surely it isn't OK to make allegations against someone and then lock the thread so that they can't defend themselves? Please either delete the thread or unlock it to allow further discussion.
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