Let us not forget how far and high this thing has flown already. A little downtime to cool down a bit before another overdrive is healthy for the economy IMHO
Of course it is, a healthy correction was needed So according to your chart, the next top will be late Jul ish and around the $4k mark?!
I don't know anything about trading and charting, but that prediction (800% increase in 3 months?) sounds a bit odd to me. It is possible but unlikely
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I like the referral aspect. I have some friends that love games and gambling with bitcoin, so I'll let em have a look and earn some cash. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Win win situation Or lose win situation, it depends how you look at it It must be nice to have a lot of refs that "work" for you
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The new information is in the distribution parameters that were updated based on the Mt.Gox data.
The Mt.Gox leak was the data after accounts were frozen right? Considering there were many hints of Mt.Gox's impending failure well in advance (goxing was a verb a long time ago), I expect a large percentage of people withdrew their funds either completely or mostly (my case). Therefore, I am not sure how useful raw Mt.Gox numbers would be for finding the overall distribution. 20 pages back in this thread, when the methodology was created, we used the distribution data from a certain company called Silvervault as a basis for some assumptions of this model. Even impaired Mt.Gox data is an improvement. An example problem where we have better answer now, is: 1.0 million coins belong to people with 100-1000 coins There are 45,000 people with 10-100 coins. How many people own 100-1000 coins? 1million coins belong to people with 100-1000coins : if they each have 100coins, they are 10,000 if they each have 1000coins, they are 1,000 so people having 100-1000coins are between 1000 and 10,000 Yet you wrote : 13k BTC100-1k that would mean each person has less than 100coins Without fudging the numbers, you would guess too easily ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) The problem above can actually be answered statistically, and much better with Mt.Gox data than without it. Hmm ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) Do you mean you are fudging the numbers? I just applied basic logic; would you elaborate? Maybe all numbers are approximative and you prefer to keep the numbers you find instead of changing them just to make them work together better
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Oh, finally it confirms!
I see you won some huh? nice and clean Yeah, I won back that 0.1 I did lost earlier today and 0.02 more. My stats now ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) My Statistic Bets 7360 Wins 2833 Losses 4527 Total Wagered 7.56496875 Total Wins 3.47550426 Total Losses 3.35048526 Total Profit 0.12501900 You can bet 0.12501900 now ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Regarding signature advertising..i have signature for two weeks now, and 7 players came as referals, but noone played any real btc. It's working, but i didn't have luck. ;-) anyone wants to try my referal link in signature for real?
I've referred 24 people, but no whales yet. You'd think 24 people would get you at least a little something decent. You saying it doesn't? I'm just jealousy of the one who made 0.33BTC by simply referring player 1DiCe1. Maybe no one referred him Admin told us that he was referred. lucky.. This is indeed pretty lucky if he didn't cheat and self referred himselfIf he keeps playing like that for months, the ref revenue will amount to a huge sum
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There is a fierce competition between Ritz and PD lol. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Its a war between 2 Elephants and I hope many will die in this as admin ban these signatures from here this forum You never make any sense. He doesn't indeed. Seen his posts every day since I joined this forum and never managed to understand what he's all about. Why would they ban signature advertising? He already changed it once and seems satisfied with the results. Remember that the forum benefits from the high activity on the boards. I think you know why they'd ban it. Because of the spam and useless posts it dramatically exacerbates. The rubbish posts are only from a handful of members; sig campaigns give back to the new members and is good for the forum and Bitcoin Most Hero members have a nice amount of BTC and don't bother getting a bit more so they would prefer to ban sig campaigns to get rid of the rubbish posts but I think we could get rid of the rubbish posts without banning sig campaigns all together Yeah, but it's those handful that do the most damage and spoil it for everyone. Exactly, when you see some spam or posts unrelated to topic you can report them to the moderator Can someone tell me if I get the Full Member rate for next payout if I become Full Member April 29th? Can't find the answer, I think the answer is yes
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There may be a turnaround at or below 200$. So there's still enough space to the downside, imho. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi61.tinypic.com%2F2s990sy.jpg&t=665&c=gxQmcrW_FHxImg) This is a scary chart but we can break those lines and resume the bull market if everyone get excited again
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what happens to the rally?
Maybe it was a bull trap; I don't know how many times we will go down before we can finally go up but we will eventually get there Already bought 100% BTC when it hit about 450. To the moon!!!
450 to 4500 would be ok ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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Worst decision so far was telling my dad I invested in bitcoin. My dad is a total bear and aside from what he hears in the occasional CNBC bitcoin segments on TV, he knows next to nothing about it. I absolutely dread having conversations with him now because it inevitably ends up with him telling me "bitcoin can go to zero". I can't imagine how he would react if he knew how much I really have invested in bitcoin (I'm all in!).
Don't tell him how much you have! He will come along to like Bitcoin, tell us when it happens, we may be in the 4 digits by then
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So a meaningless post count number is not enough, now we need to complicate it further with an activity number... PS - 4 more of these activity points and I get promoted to HERO status ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) April 29 you will be a Hero member I've posted this in so many threads now... So, basically, the formula for the activity value is this: time = number of 2 week periods in which you posted activity = min(time*14, posts)
So, lets break this down. time = number of 2 week periods in which you posted This basically means what it says. If you've been registered for one week, then this will be 1. If you've been registered for three weeks and posted on the first day of registration and again today, then it will be 2. If you've been registered for one year (lets say you registered on the 1st January 2013 and today is the 1st January 2014), and you only posted on the 1st January, 10th January, 23rd March, 15 April, 18 April and the 23rd December, your time value would be 4, because you posted for 4 two-week periods. activity = min(time*14, posts) This basically says that your activity value is the smaller value of your time value multiplied by 14, and your post count. So, if your time value is 2, then your time*14 value would be 28. If your post count was 30, your activity value would be 28. If your post count was 20, your activity value would be 20. I hope this explains it to some people ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Liam
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Congratulations to 1PN9WrK5LsNXH4gVsAn587QnHotqLuv99B for hitting ×12 on yellow twice, winning 12 BTC!
thanx again luckybit!! hit another 130x! turned 0.004 into .52btc paid in under a minute!!
wow I vote for a happy 2 hours, because it is Easter. :3
Would be cool if that happened today.
When is happy hour???
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anyone have a trick/suggestion how to play (or win) dice game? just guess Hi or Lo? martingale? gambling is addictive even when my government banned gambling here, many gamblers from my country still dominate casino in neighbour country and online betting site ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) EveryDice.com Luckyb.it Betchain
Soon, I'm going to be taking care of a signature campaign for 1 or maybe 2 of those! Keep an eye out!! waitin' for this ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) Play as you wish, play for fun if it is legal for you to play and don't bet what you can't afford to lose PD is a good safe Bitcoin place to play if you are allowed to
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No, we are going to be stuck at $400-$600 range for the next few months or longer. There is NO new development, no new buyers, no new nothing for the next few months or so. Even if there are, they will serve to siphon off the price, not add to it. Bitcoin has a strange habit of turning things around from normal expected outcome. What you expect to happen will not; if you expect price to rise because of something, it will do the opposite. This is bitcoin. It moves in myterious ways.
No New Development? And this will stop Bitcoin to sky-rocket.. how? Can I Guess you come from the bond-market or some bizniz like that? Reading newspapers trying to Catch up on what other People know and New "Development".. you contradict yourself because you are right: this is Bitcoin, it moves in mysterious ways. The mysterious being Logic patterns for speculation - not something not-understandable. It moves very quickly as well, the Bitcoin environnement of only 8months ago was totally different No, we are going to be stuck at $400-$600 range for the next few months or longer. There is NO new development, no new buyers, no new nothing for the next few months or so. Even if there are, they will serve to siphon off the price, not add to it. Bitcoin has a strange habit of turning things around from normal expected outcome. What you expect to happen will not; if you expect price to rise because of something, it will do the opposite. This is bitcoin. It moves in myterious ways.
Have you looked at the size of the buys during this run from 350 to 500? There are some pretty large buys in there, like 500-1000 block buys. That is not really small change. I can't argue about Bitcoin being unexpected as it sure has fooled the best of us. But to think there is no development (when all the bitcoin 2.0 stuff is being worked on, the sidechain revelation, more businesses accepting it, more and more TV coverage, etc.) is not really honest. Let's watch the mysterious move, IAS It is extremely unlikely that we don't breach 400 or 600 within 4months with the present volatility and action in the market; it feels you don't remember how the price is moving rapidly and surprising uneducated watchers; the price hasn't even stayed in the 400-600 range for a month!
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You have only posted positive messages about 999dice since you registered so it is quite hard to give you any trust
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I have absolutely no idea what to make of this ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFnigek6.png&t=665&c=_t-C_-oS6Pr_hg) The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend? i'm no market expert or anything, but couldn't the low volumes at the bottom be fuel for an even bigger rush? Consider this: For months a lot of people have been patiently waiting for the price to drop. and it did drop to $340ish eventually. If for a week or so the price seems to be stable at $400+ or even rising (even if it rises with 1% a day) all these people who were waiting for cheap coins may lose faith that the price will ever reach sub-340 again and will panicbuy, as soon as some of them buy, the price wil rise even more, triggering a chain reaction of panicbuys and therefore a new rush with a very high volume. Is this a plausible scenario? I think so, but like i said, i'm not an expert. I can imagine a dozen of scenarios where the price is going up rapidly in a matter of months; people panic buying, shorts buying buying back their positions and positive price news momentum will push the price even higher in everyone of the scenarios
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It feels good to see a supposed sc.am attempted being shattered by the community
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Do you promise this is the Final Warning for Long-term holders? We don't get to look forward to any more? ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Haha ha. So true. There will be daily final warnings for centuries. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) So much happened in the last 6months in Bitcoin world that I feel like everything will be different in 6months : trend, sentiment ect. It is exciting to watch but annoying to read stupid simple negative comments about a growing technology looking for massive adoption
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Cette fois on retombe juste de 50$; 450$ me paraît vraiment relativement bon marché et pourtant on entend encore bcp que le taux de change du bitcoin est surévalué; la manière dont je le vois c'est qu'une voiture pourri coûte 10bitcoins, je trouve ça très cher car la voiture ne marchera plus dans quelques années mais il n'y aura pas bcp plus de bitcoins d'ici là mais beaucoup plus d'utilisateurs et d'humains
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The money deposited went from 44 to 10 to 5 to 2 to 1BTC, it is the same pattern as the other ponzis with rounds had
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At this point, the forum is mostly dead to me. I used to be active in about a half dozen boards. Now once every few days, I check the "new replies" link up top, check maybe 2 or 3 of the threads, click "mark as read" on the rest, and check Dev&tech for big news maybe a couple of times each week.
Feel free to go back to page 14 and check the post histories of the people I've got on ignore (everyone except DiamondCardz). I have, and I'm not missing anything.
Ad signatures aren't the only problem here, but they sure are a big part of the decline.
Better handling of the ignore function (don't bump threads in the notify and replies lists when the only new posts are from ignored users) and ignore list syndication would help revitalize this place.
Maybe the staff could perform a small investigation on users that have been ignored by the highest percentage of members and if they are spamming, the staff would message them and disallow their sig for a while if they keep spamming As it was previously said, I think allowing ads in signatures is good for new members, for the forum and for Bitcoin if it is handled correctly; it gives back to the new members that can accumulate some bitcoins while becoming part of the community; we should be careful not to always ask for changes that benefit us at the expense of others. Let's ask the new members if they want to disallow ads in the signatures. When you don't like to see endless advertisements for PD or RGC you can always check "Don't show users' signatures." in "Look and Layout Preferences", you won't see the signature ads anymore and you will have a clear thread but you will still get the spam from the half dozen members that spam to get money;these members should be dealt with by staff : it is not easy to punish them since they usually kind of post comments related to topics but you can still tell they post for money because their posts are not interesting to read and usually don't add anything to the discussion This sounds like a good idea. I am new here and I usually find myself at other people's nonconstructive posts. You might also want to take a look at this guy, which I have seen posting with extreme frequency (look at the amount of time between posts as well as their content): (EDIT: DELETED FOR PRIVACY'S SAKE). Many of the posts either repeat what has already been said or are just off-topic. But I am also not a mod (in fact, quite new) and don't know the criteria for a post to be considered spam. Can you PM me the member nickname please? Maybe people are coming at this from the wrong angle? The focus is (understandably) on the annoying people who post a lot in order to inflate their post count and get more revenue from the sig sponsors. However, maybe the better people to target are the sponsors rather than just the abusive posters. Given that the forum itself sells ads, maybe a well crafted message to signature sponsors showing how advertising with the forum directly is more efficient than annoying a large segment of the forum's user base might have a very positive effect. Maybe even PMs from users about excessive posting by some users will convince the sig sponsor to reign them in.
Obviously, I am a signature seller, and the sad fact is it is one of the best ways to get BTC these days while also learning more about bitcoin.
If you wouldn't make more money after 300-500posts or so that would limit the rubbish posts In my opinion if there is no signature campaigns people will try to promote their service anyway with posts leading to their site or somhow try to encourage you with wrong link, etc. With ad in your sig it is clear that this space is for advertising and nothing else. Just my opinion.
You can disallow signatures as well
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Oh, finally it confirms!
I see you won some huh? nice and clean Yeah, I won back that 0.1 I did lost earlier today and 0.02 more. My stats now ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) My Statistic Bets 7360 Wins 2833 Losses 4527 Total Wagered 7.56496875 Total Wins 3.47550426 Total Losses 3.35048526 Total Profit 0.12501900 You can bet 0.12501900 now ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Regarding signature advertising..i have signature for two weeks now, and 7 players came as referals, but noone played any real btc. It's working, but i didn't have luck. ;-) anyone wants to try my referal link in signature for real?
I've referred 24 people, but no whales yet. You'd think 24 people would get you at least a little something decent. You saying it doesn't? I'm just jealousy of the one who made 0.33BTC by simply referring player 1DiCe1. Maybe no one referred him
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