Bitcoin Forum
May 08, 2024, 06:10:02 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 ... 231 »
1501  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: I have 3 Million USD to invest into Crypto Currency - How should I do it? on: June 15, 2014, 10:35:11 PM
New idea.  Deposit $200,000 into US auction of confiscated SR coins.  Get as many as you can and hold for dear life!

*or diversify Smiley

If you pegged the auction coins at 550 a piece, the smallest block of 3K, would cost just over half of his 3M.
550 * 3,000 = 1,650,000
Heck, in that case, with the direction bitcoin price is currently heading he just might be able to purchase two of them.  Obviously that would wipe out any sort of diversification of his investment, much riskier but potentially that much more lucrative.

The terms of the auction is that you must say the maximum price that you are willing to pay and how many you are willing to buy. If he wanted two then he could say he will buy 2 @ 1.5mm each. If he wanted to be sure to get one he could say he would buy 1 @ $1.65mm (and 1 @ 1.35mm if he wanted a chance to get a 2nd one)

For the lazy ones :

"This auction is for 9 blocks of 3,000 bitcoins (“Series A Blocks”) and 1 block of 2,656.51306529 bitcoins (“Series B Block”)."

"1. The eligible bidder who offers the highest price will be the prevailing bidder;
2. If there are multiple bids at the highest price, the first bid received will prevail; and
3. If fewer than all of the Series A blocks are sold to the highest bidder, the remaining blocks will be sold to the successive highest bidders until all blocks are sold."

It closes June 30 but we won't have the winners&price immediately, does someone know if the final auction price will be public?
1502  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Have you personally seen a bitcoin millionaire? on: June 15, 2014, 10:31:42 PM
i see a former bitcoin milionare everytime i look in the mirror Smiley
ok, it was worth just a few thousands back in the day, but now..
weak hand, sadly Sad , also happened to me with litecoin, but i just couldnt risk it, had to liquidate

I bet you still have enough to become a fiat millionnaire if things go as expected  Wink
1503  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: June 15, 2014, 10:30:37 PM
I am pretty confident we will see prices near $1,000 within less than 7 weeks.  Smiley

It is a pretty precise prediction  Wink

I will go with a prediction myself then : new ATH before March 2015
1504  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: June 15, 2014, 10:29:21 PM
...and i think we saw the first breakout of resistance this morning.... Smiley

I normally enjoy checking BTC prices frequently, but the last couple of days I stopped watching for changes. This will just take time to get moving again, and $700 should happen later this month.


It was exciting and fun to be back closer to 700$ but we are @ 570$ now

It is Bitcoin so we could be @ a few thousands and on TV in a few months Grin
1505  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 15, 2014, 07:34:39 PM

Apple is not the only good news : yahoo, expedia and paypal come to mind as well

I just bought an Android, I may buy an Iphone next if Bitcoin app are kept on the Apple Store that Apple is controlling
1506  Economy / Services / Re: WE PAY FOR SIGNATURE EVEN MORE. UP TO 0.0016 BTCs PER POST. WEEKLY PAYOUTS. on: June 15, 2014, 07:32:09 PM
This'll be interesting when I become a Member. Roll Eyes

Good Luck - this signature campaign looks full at the moment, the only active one currently would be Stunna's Primedice signature campaign.

Don't worry, more will come Wink

not just full, the owner is quite inactive, last time he logged in was 5th June..

at least they should change the title so it's monthly payouts instead of weekly Cheesy

So this campaign got abandoned by its owner? And yet people are still posting without assurance of being paid... Last time I checked Bitcoininformation said that joining this campaign is not recommended.

If they didn't pay in time and they are not responding, it is not looking good

Some members will keep the signature longer than necessary which is an added value for OP but not for the forum
1507  Other / Off-topic / Re: American Dream, is it still possible or is totally end? on: June 15, 2014, 07:24:30 PM
In the 50's the average revenue after taxes in real terms was higher than now in the USA

Big government, corruption that is the consequence of big governement, wars and the thrive for power and manipulation of the politics are killing the economy
1508  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: June 15, 2014, 05:54:14 PM
Don't put all your money in one basket. Diversify your bonds brother!

He said he has 50k$ to invest in Bitcoin; he probably has much more invested

For diversification it is important to think about geographic, sector, systemic risk, tax and politics
1509  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Can we all write to FBI asking not to sell bitcoins but hodl them? on: June 15, 2014, 05:51:29 PM
you seriously believe some high ranking officials from DOJ , FBI , US marshalls have not invested in bitcoins?

because if they really did, we can be atleast sure they wont do much harm

High ranking officials DOJ FBI US marshalls don't have all the power

Politicians are invested in Bitcoin
1510  Economy / Speculation / Re: It is just a matter of time on: June 15, 2014, 05:50:30 PM
Inflation is not a valid argument to support taking a high risk on a speculative asset. There are plenty of other assets to invest in to beat inflation such as real estate, inflation bonds, and stocks.

That's a nice list of risk free non speculative assets you got there.



Real estate is heavily taxed and risky since you often end up buying @ 10-20% more of the market price, it's illiquid and very costly to maintain

Inflation bonds don't protect against real inflation because they follow government numbers

Stocks can deliver well

The only true defense against inflation is gold/silver. And bitcoin if it goes mainstream one day.

All other assets are investment and currently in a bubble. I would not buy them now.

Why do you rule out natural ressources, other precious metals, google, altcoins, land, art, wine, swiss franc, high dividend stocks?
1511  Other / Off-topic / Re: If you do not have a years supply of water, buy it now on: June 15, 2014, 05:19:07 PM
Bottle of alcool or Gold will be easily traded for water

So, do you have years supply of alcohol and/or gold?
So you can trade water for you.

No but I was saying it is easier to have 20 bottles of alcool in case you need to swap against something else because it will be easy to do so

Rice and water can be nice to have as well though

Gun and bullet will be more valuable than water as you can always rob people with water.


If you are a criminal, you will end up hanged or killed



Unless you kill those first who wan't to kill you.
Has OP yet said why we should have water supply?

A gun can be helpful to protect yourself if it is legal to carry one and if you are very careful in the way you store it

I would like to know why we should have water supply as well, maybe that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYoXxVnTePA
1512  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Live casinos and Martingale on: June 15, 2014, 05:14:16 PM
Isn't employing martingale in livecasinos forbidden? I have heard stories that the security staff would throw you out.

That's a myth. Casinos love martingale players. It's also a myth that minimums and maximum bets are there to prevent Martingale. Minimums are there because casinos consider bets that are too small to be a waste of time considering overhead, and maximum bets are there because the variance is too high for the casino to handle.

Of course they love martingale players and min bet is here because of the overhead but max bets are very low on some tables, maybe to prevent players to lose/win all at once : they want the players to play as much as possible so they lose as much as possible in the long run; it may be for security/marketing reasons as well
1513  Economy / Speculation / Re: It is just a matter of time on: June 15, 2014, 05:11:28 PM
Inflation is not a valid argument to support taking a high risk on a speculative asset. There are plenty of other assets to invest in to beat inflation such as real estate, inflation bonds, and stocks.

That's a nice list of risk free non speculative assets you got there.



Real estate is heavily taxed and risky since you often end up buying @ 10-20% more of the market price, it's illiquid and very costly to maintain

Inflation bonds don't protect against real inflation because they follow government numbers

Stocks can deliver well
1514  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin listed on Yahoo Finance on: June 15, 2014, 04:42:05 PM
We are going mainstream. But why price felt from 650 to 550?

yahoo finance, monoprix, expedia, india, paypal, wall street, inflation will drive the price higher but in the meantime the market is pushing down
1515  Economy / Gambling / Re: Hypothetical battle comparison (Donald Trump vs whale) (dooglus vs whale) on: June 15, 2014, 04:41:04 PM
If it was my casino I would have done it if my bankroll was sufficient Wink I presume Trump roll was more than 100m$

The three Trump casino had gross revenue of $2.2m /day (from gambling) back in 1990

I don't think you can consider that the max bet will stay the same no matter what in the JD case
Probably not, but I was trying to simplify the mathematics if someone wanted to make a stab.

In an ideal world the max bet would have been 0.5% of the bankroll from the start but considering it was 1% it could have been lowered to 0.5%; dooglus was risking his whole business to make some money, he considered it was not worth it.
Well, when you say "risking his whole business" you are looking at it after the fact. No matter what the parameter settings there is still risk of extreme swings. There was a play in October where he hit the 0.5% threshold repeatedly. The player stopped for two hours and came back to play one more time to lose 7000BTC.

Yes, you could raise HE, and lower max bets to the point that there is no fear, but investors would drop out and players would not play at this level.
The next time the investors may be pleased to have a big win.

1,768   BTC   @   92.00%   won   134   BTC
1,768   BTC   @   92.00%   won   134   BTC
1,768   BTC   @   92.00%   won   134   BTC
2,171   BTC   @   92.00%   won   165   BTC
2,336   BTC   @   92.00%   won   178   BTC
2,514   BTC   @   92.00%   won   191   BTC
2,514   BTC   @   92.00%   won   191   BTC
2,896   BTC   @   92.00%   won   220   BTC
3,117   BTC   @   93.00%   won   201   BTC
3,318   BTC   @   93.00%   won   214   BTC
3,534   BTC   @   95.00%   won   149   BTC
3,683   BTC   @   95.00%   won   155   BTC
3,847   BTC   @   93.01%   won   248   BTC <=== probably max profit from here on
3,847   BTC   @   93.03%   won   247   BTC
3,847   BTC   @   93.09%   won   244   BTC
3,847   BTC   @   93.20%   won   239   BTC
4,825   BTC   @   94.30%   won   240   BTC
5,066   BTC   @   94.55%   won   238   BTC
5,304   BTC   @   95.09%   won   218   BTC
5,520   BTC   @   95.21%   won   220   BTC
5,520   BTC   @   95.21%   won   220   BTC
5,959   BTC   @   95.51%   won   218   BTC
6,177   BTC   @   95.71%   won   212   BTC
6,390   BTC   @   95.81%   won   213   BTC
6,602   BTC   @   95.95%   won   210   BTC
6,812   BTC   @   96.04%   won   210   BTC
7,016   BTC   @   96.20%   lost   7,016   BTC   

Following questions
1) If Akio plays "player bet" in baccarat, what is the probability that he would win the bet?
2) If Tawaka plays JD, what is the probability that he will win the challenge?
3) Would this be a smart move by dooglus? His he just taunting the bear that bit him?

Perhaps I wasn't clear on these questions.
1) I assume Akio is paid the $6M that he is owed by Trump in the form of large value chips. Assuming that Akio plays $200K each time, what is the chance that he will reach $12M before going to zero. He must have a 'reasonable' chance or he wouldn't play.
2) If Tawaka plays JD and brings his own 10,000 BTC that he won last year, and is limited to 250BTC per bet, what is the chance that he will make it to 20,000 BTC before going bust. To make matters simple consider that the BANK always stays above 50,000 BTC so there is no limit. Tawaka takes it as a gentleman's challenge and plays to bust or until 20K.
3) I am saying that Donald Trump extended this challenge in 1990. Would dooglus be smart to mimic the Donald? I haven't seen Tawaka's individual bets last summer. I don't know if he was playing for profits above 250BTC by taking advantage of the 1% maximum bet.

1-Less than 2% but more than 0.3%
2-Less than 2% but more than 0.3%

These answers are clearly not correct for questions #1 and #2. As I said, I may not have been clear.
The difference between the two questions is different house edge (1.36% vs 1.00%) and different number of units ($6,000,000/$200,000=30 units and 10,000BTC/250BTC= 40 units).


I figured you wanted to use 30units @ 1.36% casino edge or 40units @ 1% casino edge has the same because it is in the same order of magnitude in terms of probability

As I said before, the most interesting probabilities would be the odds of winning 25% 50% and 75% of the bankroll for Nakowa when the max bet was 1% of the roll and considering he probably won 10K and may had 8K more available if needed

If investors want the maximised their final wealth they need to follow the kelly criterion for bets giving a 1-1 payout because they are the most commun
1516  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Have you personally seen a bitcoin millionaire? on: June 15, 2014, 04:16:18 PM
I've personally seen how it changed a normal guy who had average wage into an absolute dick hole after he got mega  rich from bitcoin.
funny thing is that he's lost ALOT of it.. its like when people win lottery. they have no budget/self control so they tend to lose it all.
this dick hole thought his $$ would buy him friends and hot girls... he has 0 friends still and has to pay to get laid... quite comical if u ask me Smiley

the funniest thing is he showed pics of the girl he paid to fuck and she was like  5 outa 10... but hey.. he's happy.. so  thats all that matters.

He may better himself, let's hope he does and that the bitcoins he has left will raise tremendously in value Grin

Money got easily if you didn't struggle or learn how to deal with money will often be spent stupidly
1517  Economy / Economics / Re: Worst bitcoin decision you've ever made? on: June 15, 2014, 04:14:55 PM
Should have bought when I heard about it years ago when it is still less than 3 dollars each.

You were not smart&skilled enough to buy it then, the way you see things you could have make an MBA in Harvard and have a nice life as well
1518  Other / Off-topic / Re: If you do not have a years supply of water, buy it now on: June 15, 2014, 04:13:50 PM
Bottle of alcool or Gold will be easily traded for water

So, do you have years supply of alcohol and/or gold?
So you can trade water for you.

No but I was saying it is easier to have 20 bottles of alcool in case you need to swap against something else because it will be easy to do so

Rice and water can be nice to have as well though

Gun and bullet will be more valuable than water as you can always rob people with water.


If you are a criminal, you will end up hanged or killed

1519  Other / Off-topic / Re: House prices on: June 15, 2014, 04:13:14 PM
Real estate and renting is the upper middle class' get quick rich scheme.  

This is how capitalism work. Buy essential products and rent it out.


Free market is supposed to be about innovation, lowering prices and creation of wealth
1520  Economy / Services / Re: Selling sig space: 50,000 satoshis for 10 posts every week on: June 15, 2014, 04:12:04 PM
OP, if you can make 10 constructive posts a week, try to work a little bit harder to get 2 constructive posts a day (60 posts a month).
If you can only make 10 posts (partly constructive, partly not) a week, you should check hilariousandco's post history and learn from it lol. Wink
I agree, I hardly (if not none) see any post that are not constructive from hilariousandco. I wonder how does he does that.

Actually, I'm kind of interested in what hilariousandco does for a living... because it appears that he posts almost 24/7.  That's crazy, unless you have no life Roll Eyes

I think he posts for a living. If he's living with his parents and making over 0.5BTC per month that's actually not a bad deal.

That's what I was thinking...  Hopefully he still has a life outside of BCT. 
ONTOPIC, Bizmark13 and I have worked out a deal, the sig should be on there until the 22nd or 23rd.  Just posting this publicly.

He gets 0.0004/post so he makes more than 0.5/month, he made 0.9372BTC last month : 524$
When he becomes a Sr Member he may get 0.001/post (or more if Stunna raises the rates as he said he may) so more than 1000$/month

hilariousandco may only write when he comes back from school, I think you can post 80posts/day and have a life outside of bitcointalk

@monbux :You are advertising your ref link apparently : Earn BITCOINS or GOLD by playing a FREE GAME!? Good luck
Pages: « 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 [76] 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 ... 231 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!