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2581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Equities and Bonds collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 20, 2013, 05:35:23 PM
Touche - some element if wishful thinking from my part Smiley

And you are right at the moment liquidity is not great with markets shutting down left and right, that is probably the biggest risk.

But... there is a difference between agressive trading and manipulation also called cheating. I can't call a banker friend and set the BTC exchange rate, as we have seen in the libor, and seems to be happening with gold and forex. If I have a lot of coins I can try a big dump, small trades to influence price, etc. But it's all in plain sight and anyone doing so takes risk. So I think I meant 'central' manipulation. The equivalent in BTC world would be someone setting up a trojan in the bitcoin source code to skew the algorithms for private gain. Highly unlikely given open source nature.

The only thing I fear is HFT - I hope the community finds a way to ban or control it. Perhaps exchanges should enforce a minimum time between transactions (but very fast transaction execution), or offer a separate exchange with no limitation for the battle of the trading bots. Otherwise bot become a transaction tax as they work on both sides of the spread.


Quote
Very liquid and without mass market manipulation - you're joking right ?

No need to fear bots.  HFT in traditional markets has two components that make it nasty:
1.  Algorithms are allowed to place orders with no intention to allow them to fill.  In fact, if an order comes in that would fill them, they are given time to pull the order.  As a human, it is illegal to place an order without the intention to allow it to fill.  This is possible because of:
2.  Algorithms have direct access to the actual orderbook, whereas retail traders only have access to a order queue.  These orders will eventually hit the market, but the algorithms get to peak at them ahead of time and even make trades before they hit.

I don't yet see either of these problems in bitcoin.  Nobody but the exchanges has access to orders before they hit the book, and any order placed is capital at risk.  Playing both sides is what traditional human market makers have done for centuries and is certainly not without risk (consider what happens when the market trends in one direction).  However, it is these players that provide the liquidity you so clearly desire.
2582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 20, 2013, 05:07:32 PM
Don't worry, I've read every single one of them.  Wink

I just didn't see any of the form: "market in the US will outperform everyone because..."

I can make my own suppositions, but I'm not betting my money on that.

Edit: sent a bitmessage.

Patience... I'm seeing megaphones all over the place:
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/reverse_symmetrical_triangle.html

Hey, you got that from me.

I'd better have come out of that with something for all the BTC I gave you Tongue
2583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 20, 2013, 04:45:52 PM
Don't worry, I've read every single one of them.  Wink

I just didn't see any of the form: "market in the US will outperform everyone because..."

I can make my own suppositions, but I'm not betting my money on that.

Edit: sent a bitmessage.

Patience... I'm seeing megaphones all over the place:
http://www.trending123.com/patterns/reverse_symmetrical_triangle.html
2584  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: pool.yrral.net P2Pool backed mining pool ALPHA on: June 20, 2013, 03:51:52 PM
No new blocks, payout made as above:
https://blockchain.info/tx/cc4ea45a7c05129c29b87bb8a2fbc71c558652f4da1ce015c3eb9569d5b3e9cd

Next payout will be Monday at noon EST.
2585  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: pool.yrral.net P2Pool backed mining pool ALPHA on: June 20, 2013, 09:08:00 AM
Here are the difficulty weighted share records for the 5 solved blocks so far.  Unless p2pool solves another block, the total below will be the payout at noon today.

Block Unix Timestamp: 1371463152 Total Payout: 0.12534202
Address                                                 shares  payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 137367 0.12534202

Block Unix Timestamp: 1371485192 Total Payout: 0.12702011
Address                                                 shares  payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 15848.3 0.12702011

Block Unix Timestamp: 1371494251 Total Payout: 0.13428729
Address                                                 shares   payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 6578.87

Block Unix Timestamp: 1371507094 Total Payout: 0.1128375
Address                                                 shares   payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 9116.39 0.1128375

Block Unix Timestamp: 1371516945 Total Payout: 0.11625884
Address                                                 shares       payout
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 7198.22      0.11613077
1Q68UdKBYgBVy7h4gAAXcipaoBPeoJZrXQ 8.04828  0.00012807


Total confirmed payouts:
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr        0.61561769
1Q68UdKBYgBVy7h4gAAXcipaoBPeoJZrXQ    0.00012807
Total                                                             0.61574576



Current pending weighted shares for next block:
178sstRXJ2aF4KHcrkbECzFopjDgHCigyr 142226
1Q68UdKBYgBVy7h4gAAXcipaoBPeoJZrXQ 0.999985
13WSYzi1h9S14oN7E8DGbGLk7vHoXC2x3W 174.207
1yrraLgmRZ1fbgtz2BSVXcWVrJnH785QZ 3846.44

Current Pending Payout Per Block: 0.146
2586  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Boycott 0.8.2 on: June 20, 2013, 08:06:02 AM
I see the word "freedom" mentioned in this thread a bunch of times.

Here is a quote from Jefferson:



Quote
"I would rather be exposed to the inconvenience attending too much Liberty than those attending too small degree of it." Thomas Jefferson



Luckily you still have the FREEDOM to create spammy uneconomcial transactions (once which cost more in fees that they are worth spending).  You just have to find someone willing to mine it for you.

<GASP>  Freedom means opportunity not forcing others to bend to your will. 

Spammers have the freedom to create spammy worthless transactions.
Nodes have the freedom to either relay them or not.
Miners have the freedom to decide what transactions go into the current block.

Exactly.. everyone is bitching about something easily configurable.
2587  Economy / Economics / Re: US Outlook if/when Bernake retires? on: June 20, 2013, 07:52:46 AM
Sooner or later they're going to have to jack up the interest rates or risk rampant inflation.  Right now, I think the Fed is still far more worried about unemployment than inflation, but it's bound to happen eventually.  I'm kind of surprised he's still buying assets at such a rapid rate, personally.

If they let the housing market fall to fundamental levels many more people will lose their homes.  But with the world's stock markets rolling over they will have to make some tough choices soon.
2588  Economy / Economics / Re: Price discovery on: June 20, 2013, 07:47:34 AM
Bump as a request to the coders in the house. Can anyone confirm or deny that bitcoincharts has this functionality already in their api?

If you just want last price for various exchanges, yes.  I'm not sure what "this functionality" is?
2589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 20, 2013, 07:43:42 AM
Sorry, but I studied crime in school at the bachelors and masters level. I've seen the numerous studies. The only counter argument that has any validity is that it is lighter outside during full moons, but criminals tend to like darker places...

You can comment upon anothers experiences but that is all you can do. It is quite individual. I'll go with the "primitive" peoples of the world who understand the dream world better. Speaking of, I have studied dreams for years and the correlation between full moons and dreaming is quite obvious. Now, if you practice recording dreams for 10+ years like me and you have first hand experience, then I'm all ears. But I have a feeling that most that comment, well, are just commenting.

It's about sharing.  But for some, their brand of arrogance is too strong to see the wisdom staring them in the face.  They believe there is only the I, alone and without outside influence.  They fear sharing.
2590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 20, 2013, 07:22:02 AM
I won't deny some people who go to homeopaths feel or even get better.  But until experiments can isolate 'water memory' as being the most likely factor there's a long list of probable causes to explore before we can reasonably assume there is anything in it.

It's called the placebo effect.

This is entirely true.  And it highlights the power of our minds to overcome physical reality, at least within the bounds of our bodies.
2591  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: pool.yrral.net P2Pool backed mining pool ALPHA on: June 20, 2013, 07:14:40 AM
Ah.  That is probably a much cleaner way to do it.  In fact, you might be able to get your patch included in the main p2pool code if you turn it into a command line option.

Not a bad idea. I'd probably make a separate module with a defined interface and the command line option would just give the python path to this.

I'll work on that and update the patch. While I'm doing that, any other info that I should be including?

It would be nice to log when a p2pool block is found.  I don't really have a way to do that as a proxy, but it should be possible from within the p2pool code.  With my proxy based implementation, I have to manually create a list of p2pool block timestamps in order to properly calculate payouts.
2592  Economy / Speculation / Re: $95 bitcoins tomorrow? on: June 20, 2013, 07:04:56 AM
I don't know.  I am feeling very bullish.  I think it is going to be $120 by the end of the week.   I don't have a fancy graph, or even any real reason for feeling this way but I think it is on the rise.

Aside from the lucky ones that got in on the 9th, buyers in the last month are down. This week's rise is a corrective rally within a larger downtrend. The last two weeks have shown that the $110 level doesn't attract buyers. An optimistic whale came to the rescue on the 17th. Will lightning strike twice?

I don't know.... this rise hasn't been overly bullish.  The largest rallies happen in bear markets.  Compared to other rallies after the correction, this ain't nothing.  Maybe sentiment is finally stabilizing.
2593  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: pool.yrral.net P2Pool backed mining pool ALPHA on: June 20, 2013, 02:06:05 AM
Good work. However, I don't see where you are changing the address that gets credit.

I'm not running this in any pool capacity yet, but I plan on having 100% fee set and using the '-a' command line option to set the payout address, as per standard options. The specified address would be the shared wallet deposit address.

Ah.  That is probably a much cleaner way to do it.  In fact, you might be able to get your patch included in the main p2pool code if you turn it into a command line option.
2594  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think it's time for me to move on on: June 20, 2013, 12:13:19 AM
BRING BACK PROUDHON!

LONG LIVE PROUDHON

 Cool

+21000000

It's not the same anymore Sad
2595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will there be another big dump this week? on: June 20, 2013, 12:10:36 AM
Yes there is gonna be a dump this week, although not in Bitcoin haha.

+1
2596  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It on: June 19, 2013, 07:10:47 PM
Hot weather is a good point for decrease of the whole network

Yes!  Because the entire world lies above the equator.
2597  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: An enhanced alternative p2p “pool” – a Think Tank. on: June 19, 2013, 07:01:14 PM
Please can we have a plugin architecture to support different coins.  I have Bitcoin & p2pool running on a server, and today I just added Litecoin, which turned out to be less than easy.  Ports clashing, etc. I also intended to add one of the new experimental cryptocurrencies, but Iost patience, and will try another day.

Very confusing to have command line options & console output saying "bitcoin", when it's litecoin.

Ideally, I would like to see the new p2p pool software advertise to it's connected nodes, which coins it supports.  And then the nodes know which byte streams to share. No need for different ports set up for each coin.



Hi FlappySocks,

Funny you should say that, I had a long meeting/discussion yesterday with a potential coder and this subject was bought up. Although my first intention was to make the software Bitcoin only to start with, but with having provisions for adding other alternative coins when demand/time allowed, we toyed with the idea of maybe developing the software as a stripped down "bones" program so that the user can add which ever add-on they required to mine their preferred coin. This has never been done before and opens a whole new kettle of fish, but theoretically it makes great sense as it would help keep the program light, the user would only need to download the add-on he/she required for the coin they wanted to mine, as well as making it easier for the devs to implement updates to the add-ons as and when needed, which the user would pull when required. I like this idea as it is both ground breaking & serves a purpose, but more discussions are required before making a decision as it is a bold move. I will update the starter thread with this though.
Been going over some names for the software too lately and am hoping for some suggestions from you lot. A couple of the best so far are Multipeer & Multicoinp2p, but am totally open to this, so feel free to put a name forward - you might even win a prize....... Grin

This is one area for potential improvement over p2pool, but I believe it would have to be included in all clients.  Otherwise, you wind up with p2pool style merged mining where you only get the merged mining rewards if it is your node that solves the p2pool block.
2598  Economy / Economics / Re: US Outlook if/when Bernake retires? on: June 19, 2013, 06:08:58 PM
  2:06 PM FOMC Economic Projections: 2013 GDP growth estimate is cut a hair to 2.3-2.6% from 2.3-2.8%, but is boosted in 2014 to 3-3.5% from 2.9-3.4%. The unemployment rate forecast for 2013 is trimmed to 7.2-7.3% from 7.3-7.5% and in 2014 to 6.5-6.8% from 6.7-7%. 14 out of 19 FOMC members see rate hikes beginning in 2015 (4 see hikes before then). [U.S. Economy, Breaking News, Top Stories]

  2:01 PM FOMC Announcement: No changes to the $85B per month in asset purchases and the committee stands ready to increase or decrease the level as necessary. Downside risks to the economy and the labor market have diminished since the fall. [Breaking News, Top Stories, U.S. Economy]
2599  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 19, 2013, 05:34:07 PM
Havelock's highest bid is currently 0.02505000

At this rate, we'll see 1.4 by tomorrow  Roll Eyes
People are insane, does they ask themselves, what could they invest in after this panic selling..those people will obviously buy those AM shares back ,because even the dividend is down by 50%, holding AM shares still the safest investment over anything else.

It is dramatically less safe than a paper wallet.

Yes, does you getting any dividend from paper wallet? I mean if they sold all shares what they going to buy? buying PMB?? this just like suicide his self, trust me, if you do some research that nothing will be bad than invest in PMB at this moment. you will never get pay back .

BTC itself is a high risk investment with a huge potential payoff.  Why leverage up your risks further?  Sure, invest some, but I wouldn't recommend "investing" more BTC than you can afford to lose.
2600  Economy / Securities / Re: ASICMINER Speculation Thread on: June 19, 2013, 05:02:09 PM
Havelock's highest bid is currently 0.02505000

At this rate, we'll see 1.4 by tomorrow  Roll Eyes
People are insane, does they ask themselves, what could they invest in after this panic selling..those people will obviously buy those AM shares back ,because even the dividend is down by 50%, holding AM shares still the safest investment over anything else.

It is dramatically less safe than a paper wallet.
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