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261  Other / Archival / Re: Suppose you own a Bitcoin now. So what to do? on: January 12, 2024, 09:04:30 PM
I would buy a single room appartment and become a landlord to have that sweet-sweet passive income for the rest of my life. Although we are supposed to have a bull run quite soon, so selling BTC today is not the smartest decision. The price could easily double or triple when it will reach the peak of the bull run, so your question is a bit too early. But it's still an important topic, a reminder to people that taking profits is what investment is about - you have made no money if you didn't actually sell.
262  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin [BTC] Price Could Reach $1.5 Million by 2030 Says Cathie Wood on: January 12, 2024, 08:36:03 PM
Did she buy some BTC or has BTC-related stocks? Because every time someone influential starts hyping Bitcoin, it's probably because they got skin in the game and try to leverage their influence. But remember that these people always take profits, they don't "hodl", they invest. She'll probably sell long before Bitcoin will be even 1/4 close to that price target, while retail investors will pump the price waiting for these moon predictions.
263  Economy / Speculation / Re: 0.618 fib retracement @ $48.5K achieved: Is this is the local top? on: January 11, 2024, 10:10:02 PM
I'm actually surprised that Bitcoin reached this level, because I was expecting a correction to happen much sooner, but now I kinda don't want to believe in major correction and hope that ETF and halvening hype will keep the corrections small and short while the up movements will be massive. Although the previous bull market was wild with unprecedented deep corrections, so this is on the table now too, but seeing below $30k again would be quite sad.
264  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Future of Bitcoin in a Cashless Society on: January 11, 2024, 04:59:31 PM
There is no single cashless society and cashless societies form for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's because of government regulations that ban large cash transactions, and sometimes it's because banks offer such convenient and lucrative options that it's more optimal to pay with them rather than with cash.

What this means for Bitcoin is that cashless society could be both good or bad for Bitcoin. If governments don't like cash, they would regulate Bitcoin payments for the same reasons. But if people are used to electronic payments, they would be more likely to try Bitcoin, especially if Bitcoin will have some sort of edge.
265  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Hold than trade. Just don't use leverage, futures. on: January 10, 2024, 09:53:53 PM
The best way to trade if to do long-term trades that follow the cycle. Buying during bear market, selling during bull market. Instead of buying during dips and trying to sell tips and repeat this process in a span of weeks or even days. That's surely a good way to lose money quick, because of how unpredictable Bitcoin is in short term.

Just hodling is not a bad idea, but I regret not selling close to ATH and buying back at the bottom. Two times I got greedy and expected a way higher ATH than what actually happened. Hopefully this time I won't make such mistake.
266  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: New opinion of PlanB on: January 10, 2024, 09:42:51 PM
In 2019, when btc was $4000, I wrote the S2F article, calling for $55k btc. People said I was crazy.

Today, btc is $40k, and S2F model predicts $532k after 2024 halving. People say it is impossible."




Pretty sure that S2F was predicting above $100k BTC during the last cycle which of course didn't happen. It's just like those moon math charts - they eventually fail and get updated with new price history to extrapolate, and then fail again anyway.

I have my own theory that the price growth is slowing down from cycle to cycle because emission has less and less impact on the supply, so for having some huge price ranges like $500k there needs to be a surge in demand. Here people would start talking about being hedge against inflation, replacing fiat and so on, but Bitcoin failed to perfectly counter inflation and negative economic events, in fact it went down many times during those periods, because it's a high risk asset.
267  Economy / Economics / Re: Crypto: a place where everyone makes money, but few secure it on: January 09, 2024, 07:55:31 PM
This is why Warren Buffet has no respect for crypto investors, they don't earn their wealth by making smart decisions, they just happen to invest in the correct coin at the correct time and sell it. Guessing which coin will pump next is really close to gambling, because it doesn't depend on any objective factors like network stats, adoption, project development - instead it's just hype and bubble.

No wonder that a lot of people who got rich from crypto have no idea about basic finance management and are poised to lose big if hey won't learn.
268  Economy / Economics / Re: The Impact of Gaming on the Real Economy on: January 08, 2024, 08:59:41 PM
After the huge decrease of value most of the NFT ecosystem suffered I believe it will take literal years before the mainstream public could be willing to give it a try, a lot of people probably lost a lot of money buying "land" and "properties" in those metaverses and games.

It was the crypto whales who were heavily investing in expensive NFTs, not the people outside of crypto most of the time, and these whales could easily sustain huge losses from NFTs. For them it was just entertainment and a gamble to get even more rich, which some did by dumping their NFTs at the top of the bubble.

The general public was never interested in them, gaming communities were very vocal that they will not tolerate NFTs in the games that they play, so large gaming studios quickly dropped their plans to make quick money on the hype, realizing that such integration would only backfire.
269  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's 15th Anniversary: Nearing Maturity in a Turbulent World on: January 08, 2024, 08:43:10 PM
What if the dollar collapses?


What if it does not? US economy is still incredibly strong as keeps growing. Or what if USD collapses and takes Bitcoin down with it because investors decide to move to other asset, like gold or another national currency. We already saw some correlation between BTC and the US stock market. So be careful what you wish for.
270  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is this the kind of world you want to live in? [read] on: January 08, 2024, 08:29:39 PM
What if we were no longer allowed to store bitcoin ourselves, and be forced to leave them on an approved exchange or bank?

What if we needed to submit identify verification every time we wanted to create an address?



No way there will ever be regulations like that, it's too unrealistic to enforce. Bitcoin is mostly used as an investment, so governments will focus on regulating just that - having exchanges do KYC/AML. They are not even worried about people using it as a currency and not paying taxes, because people don't want to use it as a currency for many reasons like fees, volatility, deflation.
271  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: What if The Bitcoin Blockchain Stalls And Stops Producing Blocks? on: January 07, 2024, 11:40:14 PM
What would happen if the blockchain stalls for a whole day or two, or even a week?

This could happen if a lot of hashpower suddenly leaves the network, like a surprise ban on mining by a few major governments. If this is timed right after the difficulty adjustment and there's still more than thousand blocks to the next adjustment, this could mean a long period of very slow blocks, which would drive the fees insanely high up, especially since people will be panic selling and rushing to send coins to exchanges. But I believe Bitcoin will survive and adapt in the long run, even if such attacks would undermine the confidence of many holders.
272  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What's Your Exchange to Wallet Ratio? on: January 07, 2024, 10:52:45 PM
I have zero coins on exchanges even though I'm selling them from time to time and it would have been beneficial to keep some larger amount there instead of sending smaller amounts more frequently and having to spend more on fees. But I think the risk of storing any significant amount of coins on exchanges is just too big, they get hacked all the time, they can pull an exit scam or start having problems with authorities. So better to spend an extra on fees just to be on a safer side in the long run.
273  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Mempool and Spam Transactions LOL on: January 07, 2024, 05:52:52 PM
I came across this meme and its too funny not to share. Miners are creating spam ordinals to create fake traffic jams each time the rate fee drops quickly  Grin Cheesy Grin Cheesy


The theory that miners are making spam transactions to drive the fees up has floated around since 2016, and it never really worked, because if you are mining your own spam transactions, you are losing more money than what you gain from driving the fees up.

There's a simple explanation - there's a lot of people who are crypto rich - early Bitcoin and altcoin investors who have millions worth of coins, and those people can easily play with those NFTs even if they lose money, because they are just that rich.
274  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Carefulness of bitcoin transaction to avoid permanent loss. on: January 06, 2024, 10:32:46 PM
And I think most of them is due to carelessness, if the rate of carelessness do not reduce, am afraid we will still lost more bitcoin in the future.

You are extrapolating the data without looking at the conditions that led to such high loss. Lots of coins were lost in the early days when they were cheap and people owned thousands of coins and there wasn't even the current methods of key management like seed phrases or hardware wallets - only wallet.day file from Core client.

The rate at which coins are getting lost has slowed down significantly and it would take thousands of years before all coins are lost.
275  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What are your predictions for the state of Bitcoin in 2024? on: January 06, 2024, 10:24:51 PM
Everyone knows that in 2024 there will be a halvening, and halvening always meant bull run. Plus we have the ETF hype. The price will be rising but the peak of the market will happen in 2025, so 2025 will be the year for taking profits and for now there is still time to accumulate for those who did not yet.
276  Economy / Economics / Re: The Impact of Gaming on the Real Economy on: January 05, 2024, 08:26:39 PM
So far none of the blockchain/crypto/nft games has proven to be successful because the gameplay is always garbage, plus gamers have shown zero interest in crypto and in general scoff at it, as evident by the complete failure of major gaming companies like Ubisoft or EA to integrate blockchain technologies in their games.
277  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Is the high fee affecting the rate of adoption of Bitcoin? on: January 05, 2024, 08:06:23 PM
There are different types of adoption. It certainly hurts Bitcoin's viability as an online currency for purchases. Although 10 minutes to get at least 1 confirmation is another major problem for that. But for investing, which is I believe is the most common use case of Bitcoin, high fee doesn't matter as much if it represents fractions of percent of your investment. But even for small investors who invest like a $1,000 paying $20 fee is still worth it because they could double their money if they invest before the bull run.
278  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: One more filed smear campaign against Bitcoin on: January 04, 2024, 08:49:27 PM
When I as we I meant those who have panic sold their holding and it's sad people don't understand that just one event like spot ETF approval cannot define Bitcoin's future and people should stop believing in these smear campaigns because no one can predict much about crypto or Bitcoin.

Do you believe that a lot of investors panic sold their stashes that they prepared for the big post-halvening bull run? Because I believe that 90% of all trades are done by day traders who try to profit from all movements, all media narratives, be it positive or negative. If they are selling it's because they are shorting and plan to buy back later.
279  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin vs Internet adoption. Bill Gates was trolled about Internet in 1995 on: January 04, 2024, 08:19:10 PM
Indeed, for any new technology to break into a new market, you actually have to be even cheaper and even better than the entrenched competition.

You don't necessarily have to be cheaper to succeed, though it is necessary to capture the widest possible audience. But even expensive things can be successful if there's demand for them, due to some other property compensating for the high price.

This is where Internet distinguishes. There wasn't an alternative to the Internet back in the 90s, just as there wasn't an alternative to electricity. I'm very supportive, but truth be told, Bitcoin is mostly money; and history is full of money alternatives. The bet is that these particular properties, like denationalization and state separation of monetary policy will distinguish on the long term.

(By "bet", I mean the best case scenario for bitcoin. Losing that bet does not mean it stops being peer-to-peer electronic cash.)

And this is the big reason why people aren't switching to Bitcoin - banks work quite well for them, so there's no incentive to change anything.
280  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin vs Internet adoption. Bill Gates was trolled about Internet in 1995 on: January 03, 2024, 06:54:05 PM
Quote
In the first six years of the WWW (1990-1996), less than 1% of the world used the internet.

The internet’s adoption curve was marked by a really slow beginning when it was only interesting to tech experts. This is similar to the early days of Bitcoin. We can observe the growth of Bitcoin through its value as the number of holders increases the currency’s worth. Sixteen months after Bitcoin was created, its value was still at only $0.004.

(World Bank, Wells Fargo)


It may sound like the stupid masses were refusing to see Internets potential, but what actually happened is that the Internet was prohibitively expensive, the monthly subscription costed like $500 or $1,000 per month, which was way more in today's money; and the Internet was slow and not as full of organized content as it is today. If the Internet never progressed and stayed at that state, it would be very popular today.

So the actual analogy with Bitcoin is that Bitcoin won't get mass adoption unless transactions because nearly instant and with zero fees. Like what banks offer today.
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