There is no way in hell the Bitcoin exchange rate will achieve anything resembling stability at low price levels. As long as the market remains small as it is it will be easy for even individual actors to play havoc with the day-to-day rate of exchange. A $50/BTC at 21million Bitcoin is just over a one billion dollar monetary base equivalent... Even that is small, and not immune from manilpulation, but it should probably be considered the lower end of the threshold for the size of Bitcoin MB if exchange rate stability is to be the remotest possibility.
To think that stability will be found at a single digit 'floor' is beyond absurd.
This is completely correct. With a million dollars, even a fool will be able to manipulate the price up 5000%. No person would argue this is stable. |
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Next up: Price of oil since my last bowl movement
I'm willing to bet Bitcoinica had at least a small effect on the price decrease. |
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What are we supposed to gather from these charts?
How bitcoinica forces prices down. |
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You are dealing with something that has no useful value other than speculators and miners trying to get money out of it.
No useful value.... I disagree strongly. In fact, I can think of very few things which are more useful than Bitcoin. How is bitcoin any more useful than I0Coin? It isn't. Except I0Coin is worth $0 and bitcoin isn't just yet. it's more useful because it's accepted at more places and by more people than i0coin. Canadian Tire money is accepted at more places than Bitcoin, so that's not a valid argument at all. Bitcoin doesn't have a fundamental value, and isn't directly convertible in the current state of things. That means its minimal value is just slightly below zero. Once Bitcoin becomes useful, I'd think it will go up again. Until them, I'm enjoying shorting them. |
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You are dealing with something that has no useful value other than speculators and miners trying to get money out of it.
No useful value.... I disagree strongly. In fact, I can think of very few things which are more useful than Bitcoin. How is bitcoin any more useful than I0Coin? It isn't. Except I0Coin is worth $0 and bitcoin isn't just yet. |
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Bitcoin is not as easy to kill.
Bitcoin needs an infrastructure of miners, exchanges, and merchants to survive. Just to throw this out there. IXcoin was not only laughed at as being an altblockchain, it is known to be hacked and has been declared dead, yet people continue to mine on it. I think it has something like 8Ghash right now. (I know, I was/am collecting old coins just for S&G) So for people to claim the same for Bitcoin is extremely misguided. Emphasis mine. You don't have to have a specialized market like MtGox to be able to trade. bitcoin-otc is an excellent example of that. In fact, even if all 'exchanges' were to close, you'd still have people trading p2p without a middle man. If you want to get all crazy about distinguishing between a 'merchant' vs 'barter' vs 'exchange', so be it. All three of those are essentially the same thing when you think about it. I wasn't very clear. I mean your anology doesn't apply since nobody accepts ixcoin for anything. Mining something doesn't mean it's accepted. |
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During one of my courses, the professor was attempting to explain how to view foriegn characters when they look like boxes. His instructions were:
Click "View"
Click the language you are trying to view
These instuctions, obviously, don't work in any browser or OS. But what is it that makes him recall these? Humans are good at figuring things out, but it seems we aren't so good at recalling how we figured them out (I, myself, admit to many hazy instructions - that seems to be simply the way we work).
So, how does this apply remotely to bitcoin? It doesn't (aside from the obvious 90% of the world not being able to use it). Is there a reason I'm missing that we seem incapable of remembering the steps to do these simple tasks?
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Companies can go bankrupt if they lose too much money. Bitcoin is not as easy to kill. Bitcoin needs an infrastructure of miners, exchanges, and merchants to survive. Without that, try to spend your Bitcoins. Maybe the alpaca-socks guy will take them. Or you could try selling them on eBay. Just to throw this out there. IXcoin was not only laughed at as being an altblockchain, it is known to be hacked and has been declared dead, yet people continue to mine on it. I think it has something like 8Ghash right now. (I know, I was/am collecting old coins just for S&G) So for people to claim the same for Bitcoin, which hasn't been compromised AFAIK and enjoys a much higher mining pool, is extremely misguided. Emphasis mine. |
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We'll give you a 20 BTC donation for you to make a separate "Games & Rounds" board.
Fine. Pay here and I'll create it: 1GwinApxnpGij63thBf4PssYFxjiaNt4nm You will not get donator status from this. Its description will be something like, "Spreadsheet games, forum-based games, and discussion of individual rounds/games on other sites." Isn't bribery illegal in some places? Of course, it could be masked as 'payment'. |
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Wednesday.
*image*
Testing the chart capabilities again, eh? The relative resistance looks like a flat line - though the time-series model says something different. This just shows what kind of market we're in. |
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A*B / (C-D)
I think this formula has a feedback loop. As bitcoin value halves, A will also half - causing the fundamental value to half, and so it's like a moving floor. Am I missing anything here? |
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Tuesday.
*image*
This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). I don't think, however, that there is a 2% chance of the low being below $2.7 - this should be more like 50%. If you want to judge a chart, you would need to know how to read it first, wouldn't you? *facepalm*. I know how to read these charts, I was just posting that really unconsiously. I changed my post to more useful information now. |
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Tuesday.
*image*
This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). Is the time series matching these two times up by any chance?   The conditions seem just right for a recovery now, before a even more violent swing down to ~$1.5. |
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I can probably construct a log trendline with an uptrend as long as it is up at all if I use another number base  But yeah the traditional log10 chart line which we were so proud of is now practically broken... I admit that. There isn't a mathematical difference between bases, unless you use a complex one (in which negative values could be in theory selected, preserving an uptrend by flipping the graph). To understand this better, realize that b mn = (b m) n. So the conclusion to this nonsense is: Bitcoin doesn't die unless it dies, you have your answer now stop trolling (please) The article you linked actually clearly argues the same thing as I. The section which emphasis my point is in the article you mentioned http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logarithmic_scale#MotivationHere is the quote in question: Due to the identity:
logb a = logc a / logc b
the logarithms of any given number a to two different bases (here b and c) differ only by the constant factor logc b.
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No hats to any of you who didn't feel any sarcasm...
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I can probably construct a log trendline with an uptrend as long as it is up at all if I use another number base But yeah the traditional log10 chart line which we were so proud of is now practically broken... I admit that. There isn't a mathematical difference between bases, unless you use a complex one (in which negative values could be in theory selected, preserving an uptrend by flipping the graph). To understand this better, realize that b mn = (b m) n. |
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I'm sure someone will soon post another pretty graph to show bitcoin is still in a massive bull market.
All these drops are just noise. Look at the yearly moving average!  |
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Here is a peek at a broader view of the support/resistance chart. Things drop off a bit below $3.30 to find a stronger resistance level at around $2.00.
*image*
Does this mean that if the price continues dropping, it will drop nearly linearly until 0.2? |
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(if there is a problem with this, please point it out!)
I'm just going to consider bids without both a price and a quantity to be invalid. Thanks for keeping track of the bids. Okay, thanks. I fixed that. | Slot # | Username | Cost (BTC) | | 1 | DavinciJ15 | 10.0 | | 2 | NothingG | 8.0 | | 3 | teek | 8.0 | | 4 | Jeremy West spendbitcoins.com | 7.5 | | 5 | GoWest | 7.0 | | 6 | GoWest | 7.0 | | 7 | BitCoinWebHost | 7.0 | | 8 | BitCoinWebHost | 7.0 |
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A bid of 7.5 is currently necessary to get in. Total income the forum makes at this point is 61.5 BTC. The forum has earned 72.0 BTC from previous advertising rounds. If this auction ends now, it would have earned 133.5 BTC ( 45% of 300 BTC). | Slot # | Username | Cost (BTC) | | 1 | DavinciJ15 | 10.0 | | 2 | NothingG | 8.0 | | 3 | Tiptopgemdotcom* | 8.0 | | 4 | Jeremy West spendbitcoins.com | 7.5 | | 5 | GoWest | 7.0 | | 6 | GoWest | 7.0 | | 7 | BitCoinWebHost | 7.0 | | 8 | BitCoinWebHost | 7.0 |
* Assuming 1 slot is bid for (if there is a problem with this, please point it out!) |
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