:

[ElectricMucus]

The performance of your analysis was surprisingly disappointing the last few days. Maybe I am just too greedy but none of my orders were filled...

The big boys are obviously watching this and make sure it doesn't happen 

[grod]

Bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs never make money.  I keep having to re-learn this lesson. 

That said, those probability charts are *STILL* eerily accurate for getting the likely direction of the day's trading.

[ElectricMucus]

The performance of your analysis was surprisingly disappointing the last few days. Maybe I am just too greedy but none of my orders were filled...

The big boys are obviously watching this and make sure it doesn't happen 

The analysis isn't the half of it though.

What really makes the difference is how aggressively or conservatively you trade on the data. This is a very individual thing depending on your positions. I do not have a single position, I have longer term and shorter term positions. The longer term positions have been mostly standing pat, but the portion I have allocated to shorter term positions allow me to trade profitably on a nearly daily basis, on essentially the same data, since it does not change all that much. As well, I would remind you that the analysis is tuned to TradeHill data, it will not necessarily provide the best targets for Gox.

My guess is that you are probably trading form a single position that is keeping you priced out of the market at the most probable trades. You might want to review how you are doing money management and diversify a bit.

Your suspicion is correct, I am on mtgox with a single position.

The thing is though that I learned that trading with such a small amount in more positions isn't that rewarding. I would have made 25% with a single position when I started but have made 2 positions one were I would have gained 25% and one with 27%. The first was assuming a idealized buy the latter where I actually bought at. So I changed my strategy but was always outpriced..

I think I will return to my own strategy again, since if I would have stayed at it I would have made some profit during the time...

[ElectricMucus]

Bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs never make money.  I keep having to re-learn this lesson. 

That said, those probability charts are *STILL* eerily accurate for getting the likely direction of the day's trading.

That is because it is based simply on how the market has behaved given similar circumstances. This should be surprising in no way. People have been trading successfully on Bayesian analysis since the 1940's, still very few seem to understand it. The particular weakness of Bayesian analysis that I have struggled with most in this market is simply the lack of history. The more history you have the better it works. And we are just on the cusp of having enough history to make it very, very effective. I may get to a point before too long where I may have to stop publishing the output.

Interesting, but very academic. Difficult to understand for the layman. (At least what I find on wikipedia)
Would you share some read to better understand the concept?

[Flappy]

Thursday.

Looks like a snapshot before the spike to 4.45.

[ineededausername]

Bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs never make money.  I keep having to re-learn this lesson. 

That said, those probability charts are *STILL* eerily accurate for getting the likely direction of the day's trading.

That is because it is based simply on how the market has behaved given similar circumstances. This should be surprising in no way. People have been trading successfully on Bayesian analysis since the 1940's, still very few seem to understand it. The particular weakness of Bayesian analysis that I have struggled with most in this market is simply the lack of history. The more history you have the better it works. And we are just on the cusp of having enough history to make it very, very effective. I may get to a point before too long where I may have to stop publishing the output.

Is this methodology outlined in a clear, concise summary with pointers to further reading somewhere?  I'd like to read about it... might make a bot lol.

[TiagoTiago]

Can i send you a little bit of money and you add it to your investment process, and after you made more money you return it plus a fraction of the profits proportional to the amount i contributed, taking away a percentage of the profits to yourself if you want of course?

[fivebells]

I do Bayesian data analysis for a living.  The bible is Gelman et al.'s Bayesian Data Analysis.  Assumes a solid grounding in probabilistic reasoning.

[ineededausername]

Can i send you a little bit of money and you add it to your investment process, and after you made more money you return it plus a fraction of the profits proportional to the amount i contributed, taking away a percentage of the profits to yourself if you want of course?

I'd also do this if I could see how much profit this has made you, chodpaba.

[fivebells]

The tools described in a book like BDA actually give you more flexibility to innovate.

[fivebells]

Ha ha.  Very humble of you.

[ElectricMucus]

Here is a video of an (awesomely pretty  ) Professor Elisa F. Long of the Yale School of Management explaining Bayesian Analysis...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX6oWT707UI

[TiagoTiago]

I wouldn't mind keeping things more informal; i wasn't planning on spending an amount big enough to make it feel like serious busyness anyway (just one or two BTC), and i wouldn't really hold it against you if you took longer than i expected to return the money. But if you still don't wanna take on the responsibility, even with little amounts and without a hard deadline, i understand; i too tend to feel somewhat uneasy with putting myself in the position of having others counting on me for important stuff.

[TiagoTiago]

I see, alright.

[dree12]

Here is a peek at a broader view of the support/resistance chart. Things drop off a bit below $3.30 to find a stronger resistance level at around $2.00.

*image*

Does this mean that if the price continues dropping, it will drop nearly linearly until 0.2?

[TiagoTiago]

Horizontal spans in the orange and blue lines means it is easier to slide the price in that range, and the more vertical the line is the less likely it is price will go in that direction?

[grod]

What it means: if there actually *IS* someone preying on the weakness of BTC, tomorrow would be a good day to do some dumping.  I suspect there is no such entity, there's just *an* early adopter trying to cash out a few tens of thousand BTC.

[Flappy]

Still liquid, balanced, and right-side-up. That was fun, but exhausting.

Did you manage that by following your indicators?  Or did you have to cut loose and just wing it sometimes?

I mostly fly by the seat of my pants.  But last night I was able to gain back some of my previous losses.

[dree12]

Tuesday.

*image*

This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). Is the time series matching these two times up by any chance?


The conditions seem just right for a recovery now, before a even more violent swing down to ~$1.5.

[Litt]

Tuesday.

*image*

This market is testing your chart-making software, isn't it? This one looks particularly deranged (for lack of a better word). I don't think, however, that there is a 2% chance of the low being below $2.7 - this should be more like 50%.

If you want to judge a chart, you would need to know how to read it first, wouldn't you?