Looks like the whales are trying to paint the tape for the close of the year. 70,000 BTC bet since midnight and still firing off huge bets every few minutes. Swings of 3000 BTC are common. Currently (12:35:24) S.DICE is up another 200 BTC during this run. (But it was down 3,000 ten minutes ago).
As of 12:45, S.DICE is now up 3,000 today, brining the estimated monthly profit to ~23,000 BTC! Heavy betting continues, I will refrain from more posts until it stops or something more extraordinary than someone losing or winning 5,000BTC in a row happens. |
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Looks like the whales are trying to paint the tape for the close of the year. 70,000 BTC bet since midnight and still firing off huge bets every few minutes. Swings of 3000 BTC are common. Currently (12:35:24) S.DICE is up another 200 BTC during this run. (But it was down 3,000 ten minutes ago).
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1.4 million shares bought today. We are almost back to Tier 3 IPO.
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Damn, I was gonna buy some more shares, but I'm still waiting on the funds in my Paysius account.
Well Tuesday is the first... So you might still make it |
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Heavy betting tonight looks to have taken S.DICE over 20,000 BTC profit this month.
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While the payout issue caused the spikes earlier in the month, I was watching the Dec 24th spike as it happened, and it was real. Didn't see any unknowns. There were two long streaks of 250BTC losing bets. One was an 18 bet streak (4500 BTC spike) and another was a 24-bet streak (6000 BTC spike!). I shudder to think what will happen if one of these whales actually STARTS on a hot streak instead of getting in a hole early then clawing his way out of it. Maybe they will quit while they are ahead. check it out http://satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=&limit=400&min_bet=250&status=ALLBig spike there in your 24th report and then back down a bit. The trend continues upward, however...
I suspect the spike isn't real, but is a result of the way that SatoshiDice sometimes pays out losing bets faster than it pays out big winning bets, so it looks like they've made a big profit but really they just have a bunch of pending liabilities. At some point I'll fix the graph so that pending liabilities are taken into account. |
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MASSIVE VOLUME THIS MORNING
54,626 BTC in bets of >10BTC each this morning, 52,453 paid out.
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Good news, the whales are back...
Bad news, they won 2000 BTC.
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Hey all, Regarding this double-spend phenomenon, I wanted to allay concerns. We're aware of it and have been examining the issue. We do not think it is a significant problem, though we're taking certain precautions. Primarily, bets without a fee are now not accepted, meaning the original method of these double-spends is no longer effective. We're also taking a couple steps which are trade secrets, but that should further insulate us from similar exploits. BitcoinMagazine just wrote a piece about this... http://bitcoinmagazine.net/instant-transaction-fraud-an-explanation/We're also figuring out a way to deal with transaction spam - some people are sending us many transactions or outputs of .000000001 btc. We may set it so that these spam transactions are kept by the site and considered donation, because they negatively effect the experience for legitimate players. In any case, we're considering some options and will post any rule changes to the site and to the relevant threads on this forum. And if you haven't noticed, Dec. is shaping up to be the best month ever for shareholders  Thanks for the update Erik. Dec is ALREADY the best month for shareholders, ~9% gain is share price valuation. |
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Not to mention over 2 million shares of the IPO sold yesterday as well... Only 539,000 left before the second Tier sells out. Update : down to 45,327 shares left before Tier 3. |
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It sure is painful to watch how this S.DICE turd slowly melts to a puddle of shit and there is nothing I can do to get out of it... because fkn James can not get his act together fast enough. FUUUUUUCCCCKKK  James, you owe me 2 ales, not just one, for all the pain and suffering you have caused me! I second that! The sooner I can dump my shares and find out how much of a loss I'm gonna take, the better! You are going to make a profit, and the longer you wait, the bigger the profit. less than 50k shares of S.DICE left before 2nd tier IPO sells out. 2.5M of the IPO sold in the last 48 hours. |
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You guys are living in fantasy land. If you really think ASICs are going to ramp that fast and soon, you could make plenty of coins buying X.DIFF.MAR on mpex. Let's do some back of an envelope math for the value of the shares:
Assumptions:
1. ASICMINER starts mining Jan 1st 2013 with 6TH
2. ASICMINER brings online another 6TH Jan 14th
3. BFL and Avalon customers start mining Jan 21st
4. Network hashrate stays around these levels between now and Jan 1st
ASICMINER will be about 1/5th of the total network for 2 weeks (6 out of 30 TH)
This means they will mine 1/5th off the Bitcoins for 14 days = (14 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 5 = 10080 BTC
They will mine for one week with 1/3rd of the total network (12 / 36 TH) = (7 * 24 * 6 *25) / 3 = 8400 BTC
So a total of 18480 BTC will be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks
Divided by 200.000 shares = 0.0924 BTC per share. Which brings us close to the point where the other 200.000 shares owned by Friedcat et al will start receiving dividend as well (after 0.10 BTC is paid out as dividend)
After BFL and Avalon customers start mining as well the total hashrate will go up to perhaps 200 - 250 TH
ASICMINER will slowely build out their mining farm to 50TH, becoming 1/6th of the total network, perhaps less but will also add a new revenue stream by selling ASICs to customers.
Being 1/6th of the network will yield (7 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 6 = 4200 BTC per week divided by 400.000 shares = 0.01 BTC div per week
Valuation for the shares based on this:
Anyones guess, but looking at how mining stock and bonds were valued on GLBSE then I would say well over 1 BTC per share
disclaimer: back of the envelope valuations are not based on actual figures and the mathematician can not be held responsible should investments yield anything less than expected !
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Not to mention over 2 million shares of the IPO sold yesterday as well... Only 539,000 left before the second Tier sells out. |
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They could be doing so many things with that money instead of gambling it!
Like...you know...buying the stock. 2,000,000 purchase.  Time to get in before the IPO sells out. |
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And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales. S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post.  Somebody has too many coins on their hands....  And then down 1500BTC in 8 minutes of betting... I gotta stop looking at this, too crazy. These bets are moving the line 1500BTC in a single transaction. Did veganhippie get another $200,000 stake from poker investors and is blowing it on Satoshi Dice instead? |
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And within 15 minutes of your post a string of Losses from the Whales. S.DICE up 1700 BTC since your post. |
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wow. I mean, WOW. Some people are really going nuts. If it weren't for the shareholders I would also have thought the play against themselves just for PR. But this will result in huge shareholder payments, so very unlikely. Over $130,000. I think some real competition to satoshidice might be coming soon.
Indeed But for sure not yet ready for THAT kind of volume. Im still blown away. It's been coming soon since August, so why not. Day after BFL ships. First mover advantage, long history of transactions that match the house house edge, advertising, API interface, potential partnerships with real-world casinos... I don't see clones displacing much volume. Gonna have to be something significantly better and different. |
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They are back... 10k bet in last hour. Dice is down by 500BTC.
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But where did the casino's get the bitcoins? There hasn't been volume on mtgox to suggest they had bought $100k+ worth of bitcoins.
It takes only 1 BTC to send a thousand 0.001 bets (excluding fees). Here's a list of all the bets which profited or risked more than 10 BTC between my last two updates here. These bets represent a profit for satoshidice of 10594.72649778 BTC:
A profit of over 10000 BTC means at least 10000 BTC were bet. Over 100,000 BTC were bet in the last day. Over 400,000BTC were traded on mt.gox in the past 2 weeks, with a steady increase in price, so casinos could possibly be buying some up. Especially is Satoshi Dice is quickly recycling back to USD. |
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