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21  Economy / Speculation / Re: MASSIVE options order on apex.co on: February 05, 2014, 08:44:47 PM
I would be very surprised if anyone made a $4M bet using that site. Use your brains people, if someone bought puts at 400-500 for 4 million how much would whoever issued those need to put up, probably somewhere around $100M  Roll Eyes

Trying to figure out that site makes my brain hurt, but this might be a hint:
"One lot consists of 0.1 BTC. All options expire on the last minute of the last Friday of their month (UTC times)."

Also there is no way anyone pays 487 bitcoins to be able to sell 1000 bitcoins for $500 in one month. If you do not see why, you might be interested in the bet I proposed here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=445142.0


It's actually an over $8M bet on the price to rise.  Its a set of naked short puts DITM, where downside exposure is technically unlimited. The position holder would probably need to cover for a 25,000 BTC loss if the bitcoin price dropped below $500 /BTC during the month.  However, they will make a sizable profit if the price goes up.
22  Economy / Speculation / Re: MASSIVE options order on apex.co on: February 05, 2014, 08:38:35 PM
Are those puts on the price?

That is someone selling puts to the MPEX bot.  They are going short 25,000 PUT contracts that are deep in the money. Note, that the contract is for the price of 0.1BTC.  So they are shorting puts with at strike price from $4100 - $5000 / BTC

About an $8,000,000 notional value on those contracts now.  Looks like a pretty smart play actually.  Current BTC price is $847.  It is extremely expensive to purchase calls or puts on MPEx due to the huge volatility premium.  But you can sell to the market maker for more reasonable mark up if you have additional backing capital deposited to cover the short risk.

Let's run the numbers :
If expiry happened today, simplifying calculations as if all contracts were P500Ts...
 (5000-847)/847*.1BTC = .490 price, or break even. 

But expiry in end of month, so by then,
If BTC drops to $700, (5000-700)/700*.1BTC = .614, or about a 25,000*(.49-.614) = 3100BTC loss
If BTC rises to $1000, (5000-1000)/1000*.1 = .4, or 25,000*(.49-.4) = 2250BTC gain

Love or hate MPEX, it is the only place in the world that has proven it can handle this sort of exposure. In fact, this is a pretty small position in BTC terms compared to what people were throwing around in march 2013.  I believe they paid out 19,407 BTC that month to people that bought calls, of which 15,000BTC was personally covered by Mr. Popescu, which appears to have wiped out all of the profits he made from the first 2 years of operations of MPEx.
23  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Broken BTC Withdrawals on Gox -- 2230 EST, 28 JAN: 1654 broken TX!! on: February 03, 2014, 05:18:17 PM
for WTF exists a bitcoin - foundation then?  they are surely complicit in this heist with all those scammer personalities at the helm !

being member of BTC foundation leads behind iron bars -----  not sure if they really just worked hard enough for this image yet-  Congrats Wink
 !

Bitcoin Foundation's role is to lobby US congress to influence policy with the goal of minimizing regulations on bitcoin companies.  They aren't Mt. Gox tech support.  When it was forming you could buy your seat on the board with a big donation (like Mt. Gox) made.  These days they are well funded and I think we will see the removal of people that could reflect negatively on the foundation's mission (Shrem, Tux, etc).
24  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CEO OF BITCOIN EXCHANGE ARRESTED on: January 28, 2014, 09:09:37 PM
This shit ain't prohibition. It's tracking down fuckin idiots who think they are internet che guevarras when they can't even take care of themselves.

When prohibition doesn't work, it's time to kill and erase everything. You think prohibition is somekind of an ultimate form of state oppression? LOL this posh ass thinking.

Exactly what I would expect from 1st world retards who believe they know anything about 'government oppression'.

This kid got his ass burned because he thought he could run his shit behind his computer without any repercussions in other people's lives. His was a crime of ignorance and irresponsibility, and now he's paying for it. Crypto can be used for all kinds, certainly as a means to pay off someone for murdering your family.

Who are you all kidding anyway?



Kid can't even take the time to shave, and he wants to be a dirty money laundering kingpin.  What a joke.
25  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: CEO OF BITCOIN EXCHANGE ARRESTED on: January 28, 2014, 02:25:23 AM
...
Shrem needs to be dumped asap.


Probably best to wait and see who he rats out.  Maybe some other house-cleaning will be in order and it could be taken care of in a batch.



The obvious choice is Magical Tux. Mt Gox is next big target. There were 9.5M BTC in Silk Road revenue recycled SOMEWHERE in 2012 and 2013, and Mt.Gox was the leading exchange, one whose US accounts have ALREADY been frozen in the process of the SR investigation. The feds are going to do everything they can to cuff Tux. Now they have the leverage to extract the testimony from Shrem. I will be shocked if Gox survives 2014.
26  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Somebody bet $7M worth of BTC... on: January 26, 2014, 09:31:28 PM
and lost? On 96.2% chance of winning?

https://just-dice.com/roll/152097271

WTF?

Isn't that like 20% of the bankroll of the entire site they just lost? How come the site's profit is still so low?

That was mechs... he had bet his balance and won something like 50 times in a row and was up 6000BTC when he lost that roll.
27  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 26, 2014, 03:32:23 PM
I think its people front running the bit license hearing on Tuesday and Wednesday.

http://www.coindesk.com/new-york-state-announces-bitcoin-hearings/
28  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The most compelling Bitcoin presentation I've ever seen: Andreas M. Antonopoulos on: January 15, 2014, 03:22:15 AM
I prefer the longer form.  Cause the bite size chunks don't have the Q&A session. 
29  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: January 03, 2014, 11:18:56 PM
It might not be a "big deal" but it looks like Second Market is going to still reduce fees for the first quarter by a 1%.

Quote
Front End Fee:   1.5% (Reduced to 0.5% for Q1 2014)

Not bad.  We need Vanguard to open an ETF with 0.05% yearly fee.  Then I'm in.
30  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will this cause France to get into Bitcoin - 75% Tax on Rich on: December 31, 2013, 04:11:57 PM
California is not too far away from this now.  55.7% marginal rate above $508,000.

39.8% federal + 3.8% ACA + 12.1% state.  Not to mention payroll, Social Security, etc.
31  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 18, 2013, 03:05:01 AM
So according to their website, as of the 17th they now have 98.000+ coins. That's got to be a typo right?

They say they have net assets of $68.4 million right now. If they meant $48.4 million instead they only bought about 1000 coins, and that number seem far more reasonable than 30.000 coins+ in 24h.

Where do you find the 98000+ figure?

I assume he is just doing the math of $68.4MM / $69.66 = 98,000BTC

Does anyone have the private placement offering literature so we can learn how the NAV and Net Assets are calculated?

It is now shown as 47.9   M$. I think that was a typo

I still see $68.4M, even on a fresh computer's browser.

I think you are looking at: http://www.bitcointrust.co/

I am looking at this one: https://www.secondmarket.com/company/bitcoin-investment-trust

I believe the latter one is accurate

Ah!  Thanks...

32  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 18, 2013, 02:54:59 AM
So according to their website, as of the 17th they now have 98.000+ coins. That's got to be a typo right?

They say they have net assets of $68.4 million right now. If they meant $48.4 million instead they only bought about 1000 coins, and that number seem far more reasonable than 30.000 coins+ in 24h.

Where do you find the 98000+ figure?

I assume he is just doing the math of $68.4MM / $69.66 = 98,000BTC

Does anyone have the private placement offering literature so we can learn how the NAV and Net Assets are calculated?

It is now shown as 47.9   M$. I think that was a typo

I still see $68.4M, even on a fresh computer's browser.
33  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 18, 2013, 02:43:35 AM
So according to their website, as of the 17th they now have 98.000+ coins. That's got to be a typo right?

They say they have net assets of $68.4 million right now. If they meant $48.4 million instead they only bought about 1000 coins, and that number seem far more reasonable than 30.000 coins+ in 24h.

Where do you find the 98000+ figure?

I assume he is just doing the math of $68.4MM / $69.66 = 98,000BTC

Does anyone have the private placement offering literature so we can learn how the NAV and Net Assets are calculated?
34  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: December 18, 2013, 02:28:51 AM
So according to their website, as of the 17th they now have 98.000+ coins. That's got to be a typo right?

They say they have net assets of $68.4 million right now. If they meant $48.4 million instead they only bought about 1000 coins, and that number seem far more reasonable than 30.000 coins+ in 24h.

Whoa.  Where does it say how many coins they hold?  I see only see NAV and assets in $ terms.  There are two possibilities... One, they just got a huge cash deposit and they have not yet purchased the coins with them.  Or they bought a bunch of coins in an OTC transaction that went thru a different receiving address.  Or its a typo (unlikely I would think).

35  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who is buying bitcoins at what many said in the past are cheap prices now? on: December 18, 2013, 01:00:18 AM
I'm buying.
36  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Oops - 20BTC fee paid on .05 transaction? on: December 16, 2013, 05:10:00 AM
Some people are just not up to the challenge of handling their money responsibly.  Undecided

Funny how we are split between sympathy and .... whatever the opposite of sympathy is.

People need to learn how to treat their bitcoins with respect. Clicking is a lot easier than handling real cash. Its not like anyone ever went into a restaurant, paid for a $10 meal, and left a $3000 tip.


I believe the word you are looking for is schadenfreude.

It sucks for him, but the reality is you need to be educated, responsible and careful with your coins.  Otherwise you will eventually be separated from them.  Its a shame for him to lose his whole stack, but given the amount of care used here it was probably only a matter of time before they would have been lost to an investment scam or gambled away.  Different recipients same result.

A excessive fee warning in the client would be nice too.
37  Economy / Securities / Re: Virtex VTX trading disabled on: December 16, 2013, 04:37:44 AM
Can't keep all the plates spinning forever...
38  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Oops - 20BTC fee paid on .05 transaction? on: December 16, 2013, 04:22:03 AM
Some people are just not up to the challenge of handling their money responsibly.  Undecided
39  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 13, 2013, 09:46:06 PM
SHOWING STRENGTH going into the weekend.   I was getting nervous with those fresh ask walls...
40  Economy / Speculation / Re: Serious bitcoin price discussion. Bears only please. How far will it drop? on: December 13, 2013, 12:11:43 AM
No way we go below $502 on gox.
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