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181  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Butterfly Labs Announces Bulk Chip Sales on: June 02, 2013, 05:32:19 PM
It's over folks.  BFL will never deliver units.
182  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: May 31, 2013, 02:54:37 PM
are you able to tell if the amount being bet on satoshidice has declined since they closed their operations to americans?

The betting volume has increased since closing to US bettors.
183  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: May 17, 2013, 12:07:25 AM
The difference is that  "quitting while we're ahead" means the first time you're ahead, which will probably happen early on with only a small amount bet gained.

"Quitting while you're behind" in this case means you've lost all you can afford to lose, which won't necessarily be a small amount.

The other difference is that the "ahead" is a state that may never happen for some players, if they lose their first few bets and never recover those losses.  On the other hand, given the 1.9% house edge, the "behind" state will happen for all players if they just keep playing long enough.  In fact so will the "lost it all" state if they play enough times.

For the purposes of analysis, imagine there's an endless line of players who take on SatoshiDice one at a time, like in a kung-fu movie.  Each one starts with 100 BTC and plays until he has lost it all, then quits forever.

We can say that after the Nth player has finished playing, the house profits will be 100*N BTC.

And we can also say that on average each player bets a total of 100 / (1.9/100) = 5263.16 BTC.

I think I've satisfied myself (though probably nobody else) that people's tendencies to quit only when they've lost their bankroll doesn't affect the house's percentage profits, and that the current better-than-expected profits are merely the result of some good house luck earlier this year.  Even if that whale was always intending to keep playing until he lost it all, that process could have taken him 10 times longer than it did.  The house profits would be the same as they are now, but they would then be less than expected instead of being more than expected as they currently are.

Relevant analogy :

If there is a country where every husband and wife decides to have children until they have a boy, what is the distribution of boys vs. girls in the country?
184  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-05-06 knifeparty: Get 'Haunted House' with BitCoins on: May 14, 2013, 11:47:54 PM
I bought it with coins.

Too bad its not that good. :/
185  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: April 19, 2013, 08:53:49 PM
International wire goes on same day or next day for me.  Speed and security are worth the 2000jpy fee IMHO.
186  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: April 18, 2013, 03:35:04 PM
When was the last time someone received his money via Bank transfer from MtGox?

I got a international wire from them yesterday.  Not SEPA though.
187  Economy / Securities / Re: PSA - Usagi lieing and reneging on commitment on: April 17, 2013, 11:54:17 AM
Lying, not lieing. 
188  Economy / Securities / Re: [GLBSE] BDT - 3% weekly interest bond, backed by Bitdaytrade on: April 16, 2013, 01:04:29 PM
He has real estate assets which could be liquidated to cover his obligations if it comes to that point.
I wouldnt have lent anything if I had known that this was a lie... or at least without any proof just made up to drag us into this whole mess.
I clarified abundantly that I had no first-hand knowledge or proof about either his assets or intentions; and that everything ultimately rests on his good intentions.

We thought the information we had was sufficient to justify the loan. We were wrong.

How does Meni not have a scammer tag from this?  Am I misunderstanding his role in promotion of a scam?
189  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] My name is Bond. MPOE Bond. ( Jan: 9.99%, Feb: 4.8% Mar: -23%) on: April 01, 2013, 06:47:48 PM
Does anyone else think that the MPOR should be substantially higher, given the big March loss?

Or rather, why is a repeat of that loss unlikely if that's the case?

I imagine it will end up being higher this month, and certainly next month.
190  Other / Off-topic / Re: BFL: Do not donate any money to charity on: April 01, 2013, 03:49:39 AM
my question is why is this forum still advertising so diligently for BFL?  BFL probably runs this forum.  the new footage of the dude doing tests isn't convincing to me, we're talking about 10,000 rigs oor some crazy number 30,000.  I want to see footage of that.  that and his hand holding the camera had a nervous shake.  

maybe I'm wrong.  but if this forum is going to advertise a scam, they should be held responsible when it turns out to be a scam.  afterall probably 90% of BFL customers got there to BFL from the forum advertisements.  I would just ask that the forum stop advertising unless BFL provides hard proof that they are doing what they are claiming. (NOT HARD TO DO NOR AN UNREASONAbLE REQUEST)  

I'm talking a simple youtube video of all the people involved with all the equipment they're working on.  just a little "hello" for the public.  otherwise advertising for them is irresponsible in my opinion based on their 140 days of false promises.  

just because there's a youtube video out now of a dude working on a BFL board and talking about its specs gives me no confidence.  since I saw joshes youtube videos I haven't trusted BFL because his vibe just turns me off, he reminds me of scammers I know...  

people are like, "you will destroy your reputation for naysaying his royal highness josh zertan."  

I don't care, its a candid valid concern for our entire community.  forum, stop the advertising, or deliver proof its not a scam.  I guess if the forum sees the product with their own eyes that's good enough.  after all the forum is run by BFL, so their eyes are fine for confirming public trust.  I am just speculating what sort of blow this might have on the BTC economy cuz the pirate thing was only 6 mil, this is over 100 mil.

may I ask is there any thread that definitively proves or disproves that BFL is a royal heist?  please direct me.  and I will shut up about it if there is proof they aren't scammin.  thank you.

The most likely outcome is that BFL overpromised and underdelivers. The crushing load of pre-order obligations will meet the reality of chips that run too hot under the additional pressure of lost opportunity cost as competitors deliver and network hash rate skyrockets towards 200 TH/s.  The lucky ones will get devices that run too slow, too hot or blow up.  The unlucky ones, aka those that preordered after the first month or two, will probably get nothing, as the ponzi funding stream runs dry and BFL runs out of sufficient capital to design and burn another mask for a chip that comes close to spec, company goes into liquidation. At best you will get a rig that is fraction of what was promised in a timeframe that will have seen 90% of the potential revenue from your rig go to customers of Avalon, ASICminer, and any other ASIC designer that actually built a product.  

Most startups fail, this is the nature of capitalism and competition.  If you bet on the BFL horse, its probably time to write off your loss, move on with life and hopefully develop a better horseshit detector for the next bitcoin wannabes that come asking for your money (cough, coinlab).

191  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: BFL power consumption / Charity Donation on: April 01, 2013, 12:15:27 AM
How about equity in BFL? If they built everything using our money we are akin to shareholders anyways. Just a wild thought.

equity in a failed company is worthless btw.

EDIT : Actually could be less than worthless, they may have more debt than assets at this point.
192  Economy / Securities / Re: Pricing miner securities on: March 31, 2013, 11:07:22 PM
I was wondering how others go about pricing mining-company securities.

I ask because I just bought some asicminer shares and by my numbers, assuming that what's supposed to and is likely to happen in the near future happens, then they are good value.

But I've looked at a couple of other securities, and the market prices seem outrageous - dividend ROIs closer to 12 months than 6; and even under ridiculously optimistic (impossible) scenarios, ROI 4+ months.

And for my money, 12 months may as well be forever given Avalon and other potential ASIC solutions could deploy tens  if not hundreds of TH in that timeframe.


Any mining stock that does not currently have ASICs in hand today is a short to zero.
193  Economy / Securities / Re: Largest Bitcoin loss to date. on: March 31, 2013, 10:47:39 PM
I don't have time to analyze this options system deeply, but the apparent (due to email trading system) lack of real-time feed means to me lack of transparency. So maybe the "100% security" is a loss leader. Wink

No accusations, just no time to find out if what I am worried about above is true or not.

Yeah liquidity is important. Yeah capital formation is important. Yeah math is important.

But involving with people who write on their website that they want to kill all idiots, is dangerous for me. Sorry.

(not to mention it is mathematically myopic, how can their be higher IQ if there is not lower IQ, i.e. how can you see black without white. Contrast is required for perception and being smart on one issue doesn't make one smart on all issues, we need diversity)

If anyone finds themselves being ignored by me, they should refer to this post as to a possible reason why.

The options trades stream on #bitcoin-assets and on twitter dude.

Also are you aware that there is a website called MPEx and a functioning liquid market on it?  The email based system was last relevant over a year ago.

I dont think anyone will notice nor care about you ignoring them.
194  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: How can I get set up as a broker and operate a pass-thru fund on Mpex? on: March 30, 2013, 11:52:24 PM
I was looking at Mpex and the possibility of getting set up as a broker and operating a pass-through fund. Anyone have any knowledge of how to do this?

If you want some real-time handholding, join the #bitcoin-assets channel on freenode.  Talk to jurov about his experiences setting up, an MPEx broker.

Great platform.
195  Economy / Securities / Re: Largest Bitcoin loss to date. on: March 30, 2013, 07:36:37 PM
Congrats to the MPEx team for providing such an incredible level of liquidity in the options market.  The MPOE bot provides such an important service to the bitcoin finance community.  I'm happy to see that despite the steep losses this month, all contracts were honored without even the whiff of a 'glitch', 'hiccup', or 'hack'.
196  Economy / Securities / Re: [BitFunder] Ziggap Bitcoin Sales Service on: March 29, 2013, 08:19:18 PM
Flipping shares is definitely part of my game (and I have arguments for why early bird shares can be a good thing, but we'll save that for later)

I'm open to other explanations of how leaving cash on the table helps a good company - especially when by selling at the early-bird price (rather than the higher price that would have been obtained with prior notice) they tend to reduce/suppress further demand by setting an apparent low valuation on the shares.

We cannot exclude complete financial incompetence in this case.
197  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: fulfillment/support issues on: March 29, 2013, 01:28:05 AM
What is your order number?
Did you know we have a phone number listed right on our website so people who have issues can call to find out the status?
1 (888) 586-6083
Give us a call,  or email me at roger at and I will get things taken care of for you.

Thanks for the feedback.  I have sent multiple messages on the contact us form, asking for emails back but got nothing. I didn't see the phone and email address at the bottom of the page. I'll shoot you an email now and report back.

To be clear, I really want bitcoinstore to succeed, that's why I placed an order early, and was planning on making a big ticket purchase upon successful fulfillment.  I've only heard good things so far.

198  Economy / Service Discussion / fulfillment/support issues [resolved] on: March 28, 2013, 05:11:56 PM
Issue resolved. Thanks!
199  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Bitcoins sent to Mt.Gox didn't hit account, Mt.Gox telling me to wait 24hrs on: March 27, 2013, 02:37:58 PM
Anyone still waiting for deposits to appear (like me)??

I waited 60 confirms, sent in a support ticket and was credited within 10 minutes.
200  Economy / Securities / Re: Want to borrow up to 1000 ASICMINER passthru shares on: March 26, 2013, 09:30:44 PM
Think they're goin' down eh? They took a nice haircut yesterday.

I guess I'm a week late on this idea...   Undecided

[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.744 BTC
  • [16:17] <@assbot>
[BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.743 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.742 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.741 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.74 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.73801 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.738 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.7191 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 2 @ 0.695 = 1.39 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 20 @ 0.6502 = 13.004 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.6501 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 3 @ 0.6501 = 1.9503 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.65 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 3 @ 0.61002 = 1.8301 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.6 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 19 @ 0.6 = 11.4 BTC [-]
[16:17] <@assbot> [BTCTC] [ASICMINER-PT] 1 @ 0.59998 BTC [-]

Well if the idea is to short, the problem is that most holders got in at 0.1 and are just holding. (At this point anything they get out of it is "free money", since they have been paid back their initial investment.) Those that aren't have already sold to folks at much higher prices.

This still means liquidity in trades is ridiculously low, so you dumping 1000 shares on the passthrough exchanges would "lower the last sale price", the question is could you find enough sellers at the lower prices to close your short position? (IE: daily volume on the highest volume exchange is in the hundreds of shares.)

That and the potential for having to pay out dividends for an extended period while trying to close your short position could be challenging. Add to that the issues of finding someone to lend you shares, while having them know that your goal is to significantly lower the price of ASICMINER shares will be a tough trading strategy.


P.S. - Interesting to watch in any case.

Looking into bitfunder options.  For example, having someone write puts with a strike of 1.5 and sale price of 0.75 replicates a straight short position pretty well, with limited max exposure, and no need for third party escrow. 
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