are you able to tell if the amount being bet on satoshidice has declined since they closed their operations to americans?

The other difference is that the "ahead" is a state that may never happen for some players, if they lose their first few bets and never recover those losses.  On the other hand, given the 1.9% house edge, the "behind" state will happen for all players if they just keep playing long enough.  In fact so will the "lost it all" state if they play enough times.


For the purposes of analysis, imagine there's an endless line of players who take on SatoshiDice one at a time, like in a kung-fu movie.  Each one starts with 100 BTC and plays until he has lost it all, then quits forever.

We can say that after the Nth player has finished playing, the house profits will be 100*N BTC.

And we can also say that on average each player bets a total of 100 / (1.9/100) = 5263.16 BTC.

I think I've satisfied myself (though probably nobody else) that people's tendencies to quit only when they've lost their bankroll doesn't affect the house's percentage profits, and that the current better-than-expected profits are merely the result of some good house luck earlier this year.  Even if that whale was always intending to keep playing until he lost it all, that process could have taken him 10 times longer than it did.  The house profits would be the same as they are now, but they would then be less than expected instead of being more than expected as they currently are.

When was the last time someone received his money via Bank transfer from MtGox?

I clarified abundantly that I had no first-hand knowledge or proof about either his assets or intentions; and that everything ultimately rests on his good intentions.

We thought the information we had was sufficient to justify the loan. We were wrong.

Does anyone else think that the MPOR should be substantially higher, given the big March loss?

Or rather, why is a repeat of that loss unlikely if that's the case?

my question is why is this forum still advertising so diligently for BFL?  BFL probably runs this forum.  the new footage of the dude doing tests isn't convincing to me, we're talking about 10,000 rigs oor some crazy number 30,000.  I want to see footage of that.  that and his hand holding the camera had a nervous shake.  

maybe I'm wrong.  but if this forum is going to advertise a scam, they should be held responsible when it turns out to be a scam.  afterall probably 90% of BFL customers got there to BFL from the forum advertisements.  I would just ask that the forum stop advertising unless BFL provides hard proof that they are doing what they are claiming. (NOT HARD TO DO NOR AN UNREASONAbLE REQUEST)  

I'm talking a simple youtube video of all the people involved with all the equipment they're working on.  just a little "hello" for the public.  otherwise advertising for them is irresponsible in my opinion based on their 140 days of false promises.  

just because there's a youtube video out now of a dude working on a BFL board and talking about its specs gives me no confidence.  since I saw joshes youtube videos I haven't trusted BFL because his vibe just turns me off, he reminds me of scammers I know...  

people are like, "you will destroy your reputation for naysaying his royal highness josh zertan."  

I don't care, its a candid valid concern for our entire community.  forum, stop the advertising, or deliver proof its not a scam.  I guess if the forum sees the product with their own eyes that's good enough.  after all the forum is run by BFL, so their eyes are fine for confirming public trust.  I am just speculating what sort of blow this might have on the BTC economy cuz the pirate thing was only 6 mil, this is over 100 mil.

may I ask is there any thread that definitively proves or disproves that BFL is a royal heist?  please direct me.  and I will shut up about it if there is proof they aren't scammin.  thank you.

How about equity in BFL? If they built everything using our money we are akin to shareholders anyways. Just a wild thought.

I was wondering how others go about pricing mining-company securities.

I ask because I just bought some asicminer shares and by my numbers, assuming that what's supposed to and is likely to happen in the near future happens, then they are good value.

But I've looked at a couple of other securities, and the market prices seem outrageous - dividend ROIs closer to 12 months than 6; and even under ridiculously optimistic (impossible) scenarios, ROI 4+ months.

And for my money, 12 months may as well be forever given Avalon and other potential ASIC solutions could deploy tens  if not hundreds of TH in that timeframe.

I don't have time to analyze this options system deeply, but the apparent (due to email trading system) lack of real-time feed means to me lack of transparency. So maybe the "100% security" is a loss leader.

No accusations, just no time to find out if what I am worried about above is true or not.

Yeah liquidity is important. Yeah capital formation is important. Yeah math is important.

But involving with people who write on their website that they want to kill all idiots, is dangerous for me. Sorry.

(not to mention it is mathematically myopic, how can their be higher IQ if there is not lower IQ, i.e. how can you see black without white. Contrast is required for perception and being smart on one issue doesn't make one smart on all issues, we need diversity)

If anyone finds themselves being ignored by me, they should refer to this post as to a possible reason why.

I was looking at Mpex and the possibility of getting set up as a broker and operating a pass-through fund. Anyone have any knowledge of how to do this?

I'm open to other explanations of how leaving cash on the table helps a good company - especially when by selling at the early-bird price (rather than the higher price that would have been obtained with prior notice) they tend to reduce/suppress further demand by setting an apparent low valuation on the shares.

What is your order number?
Did you know we have a phone number listed right on our website www.bitcoinstore.com so people who have issues can call to find out the status?
1 (888) 586-6083
Give us a call,  or email me at roger at bitcoinstore.com and I will get things taken care of for you.

Anyone still waiting for deposits to appear (like me)??

Well if the idea is to short, the problem is that most holders got in at 0.1 and are just holding. (At this point anything they get out of it is "free money", since they have been paid back their initial investment.) Those that aren't have already sold to folks at much higher prices.

This still means liquidity in trades is ridiculously low, so you dumping 1000 shares on the passthrough exchanges would "lower the last sale price", the question is could you find enough sellers at the lower prices to close your short position? (IE: daily volume on the highest volume exchange is in the hundreds of shares.)

That and the potential for having to pay out dividends for an extended period while trying to close your short position could be challenging. Add to that the issues of finding someone to lend you shares, while having them know that your goal is to significantly lower the price of ASICMINER shares will be a tough trading strategy.

-helixone

P.S. - Interesting to watch in any case.