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2881  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: March 12, 2013, 09:17:13 AM

What about this graph but with every "violon" as proportion to the highest month volume?
2882  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: March 12, 2013, 08:27:06 AM
I'm wondering if it would be interesting to plot a violin plot where the thickness indicates the volume (in BTC) bet at each price rather than the number of bets at that price.  Then we'd be able to see that

Quote
large bets might only make up a small percentage of bets, but they are the largest proportion of overall bet value

for ourselves.  Smiley

I was thinking the same thing last night but it was getting late, so I left it until now.

The first plot below shows to volume, and the monthly volumes can be directly compared to each other (March is low because it's only one third the way through). However it doesn't really show much detail for most months which had low volumes compared to January 2013.

The second plot makes the maximum width equal for each month, meaning the volume is presented as a proportion of the total monthly volume. This means that months cannot be compared directly, but much more detail is presented for any given month.

Three things are clear:
1. The number and size of Bets on SatoshiDice are increasing;
2. People prefer to bet "round numbers" of btc - this is the reason for the "wiggliness" of the plots.
3. The maximum bet size often produces the most monthly volume; the largest portion of most monthly volumes are due to bets 1btc or greater.

Also, from these plots I'd expect the month with the greatest volume to be January 2013, followed by December 2012 and then February 2013.

I also reckon I could sell these plots to psychiatrists as Rorshach ink blots.  



That's 0.5 BTC tip my dear (I've sent the same to dooglus). Thanks a lot for your contribution!
2883  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC Wall Observer - BTC-e wall movement tracker on: March 11, 2013, 10:12:16 AM
If there is place for one cryptocurrency, there is/will have place for other ones.

The main value of Litecoin is that :

* it has a different encryption algorithm (so if you diversify your BTC assets, at least a part is safe to unexpected hack)
* block are mined every 2.5minutes (4x faster transactions)


if the market is enough liquid with (a) strong exchange platforms LTC/BTC, LTC can be used in specific applications (that we don't even know the existence now) and serve the bitcoin adoption.





2884  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: satoshidice.com is DOWN!!! on: March 10, 2013, 11:57:32 PM
Police ??  Cheesy

SD is not down, just the webby.

http://blockchain.info/
2885  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC Wall Observer - BTC-e wall movement tracker on: March 10, 2013, 11:53:32 PM


what a rally today: last price 0.00745


0.008 to 0.0087 has almost no ask.
2886  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: LTC Wall Observer - BTC-eUSD wall movement tracker on: March 10, 2013, 09:37:00 PM
Figured I would start a separate thread...




Regarding these figures:

LTC/USD
Ask orders: 189,333 LTC
Bid orders: $18,683

LTC/BTC
Ask orders: 712,591 LTC
Bid orders: 1521 BTC ($69,966)


Don't you think that a Wall observer on the LTC/BTC is more revelant and judicious?
2887  Local / Français / Re: File des nouveaux venus français on: March 10, 2013, 08:03:11 PM
Franchement, conseil d'un voisin belge, vu d'ailleurs les français ont souvent une prononciation anglais très "limite" alors svp, ne vous rendez pas plus risibles en parlant des bitcoins version "coin de table" ! My 2 cents  Cheesy
2888  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-03-08 Erik Voorhees on Peter Schiff Show Today on: March 10, 2013, 01:55:23 PM
Just finish listening to the interview.

Great performance Erik. GG.
2889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin, the tiny market that keeps getting bigger! on: March 10, 2013, 01:30:41 PM
Adam is an attention w bear.
2890  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fair value is at 53.31$ ;-) on: March 10, 2013, 01:28:21 PM
No it's 666 because 333+333.
2891  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: March 09, 2013, 10:30:58 AM
Is it possible that an SD conspirator is running a bot to inflate the numbers? Would such a graph reveal it if it were true?

It would be like a casino handing a stack of chips to an employee to go play at the casino so that the casino doesn't appear empty. Whether they win or lose, the employee hands whatever chips he has left back to the casino. The only cost to inflate the activity graphs would be the transaction fee, a minimal .0005 BTC at this time.

There is no way to tell if there is an insider placing SD bets.


+ 13% of 1.9% (0.25%) of each bets, theorically, that goes to the shareholders.
2892  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: March 07, 2013, 09:12:37 AM
Just people dealing with the problems of liquidity in this market... 30 BTC hit Sad

I'm going to wait another 30 days before I decide how I feel about it though Smiley

Actually it can be 24 23, see my signature...

Edit: I lowered to 23BTC
2893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 05, 2013, 05:51:43 PM
TA is effective but not applicable on that tiny market.

/thread
2894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 05, 2013, 10:14:39 AM
I hope the bears are still waiting your reversal at 31$ and rapid drop & blablabla hey look a flat diagonal !

Nice thread anyway !
2895  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 11:37:50 AM
Hahaha nice digging Smiley

Why he's wasting so much time and energy here for years  Huh
2896  Economy / Speculation / Re: proudhon on: March 02, 2013, 07:06:30 AM
I'm 100% reverse on proudhon FUD. Gain a lot of sotashi.
2897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 10:16:22 PM
nah, some cheaper opportunities are still available Smiley
Someone will take profit here soon and quickly knock us down to $30
A drop of 18K BTC failled yesterday.
2898  Economy / Securities / Re: [MPEx] S.BBET Monthly Statements on: March 01, 2013, 08:18:43 PM
Thanks, crystal clear.

2899  Economy / Speculation / Re: I'll have a stab at the top: $40.53 - $47.65 on: March 01, 2013, 07:23:37 PM
"Wave Three" OMG!

Wink



I stirred the tea leaves again and now it looks like the last bubble was only 15/7 = 2.14:1 after correcting for the long-term exponentially increasing support level.
Bubble mode started around Jan 13th, bottom at $13.5
support level currently at $17.
17/13.5 =1.259
support level daily growth = (17/13.5)^(1/46) = 1+i = 1.005024
bubble growth 33/13.5 = 2.444
bubble daily growth = (33/13.5)^(1/46) = 1+i = 1.0196 or almost 2% daily growth
net growth: (2.444/1.259)^(1/46) = 1.0145
So the bubble will pop when the net total growth reaches 3.46 times whatever the support is on that day.
After doing some logarithms and stuff to find out when the bubble will pop, the price will reach (2.444)^( Grin)*13.5 = 5.34*13.5 = $72.



LOL
2900  Local / Français / Re: File des nouveaux venus français on: March 01, 2013, 03:05:06 PM
En effet, d'entrée de jeu  Grin
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