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29281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 12:56:38 PM
You ignore the chart indicators because of your belief, and then complain later and ask why you are losing.

I ignore the chart indicators, because I still don't know how to read chart indicators. I'm still learning, so I follow this forum for advice, and then follow the forum's advice not to follow any advice I find on this forum.

I have no idea whether I should be shorting right now and buying back lower. Last time I panic sold, I lost 1/8 of my investment.


No one can "read" the chart indicators correctly all the time because there are too many of them and they more often than not conflict. TERA, who admittedly does not do well unless there is a raging bull cycle, is telling people to do more of what he does. Not sure why.

At any rate, a good understanding of both technicals and fundamentals, a willingness to study the market behavior, and a good instinct is what you should aim for.

My 2cents here. Its not a great place to short. 520 was a great place to short.  This market is selling off on low volume into a lot of resistance. Sure it could do this for the next 2 weeks like it did in March, but thats not for certain. A news articles could crash it as well, but there is no news on the weekends most of the time.

I think its a good time to be out of coins into fiat until the continuation (my most likely scenario) of the bear market is confirmed.

I believe that I get what you are saying here; however how do you know when to get back in?  Are you getting back in, at some point?  $440-ish?  or lower?  and let's say we get to $440ish, then rally but bull trap?  you go based on volume to figure out whether it is a true rally?  it is just so hard to tell if there is a whale or two who seem to be selling at a loss, just to drive down prices.  You cannot be sure about when that whale is going to change strategies.
29282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 08:13:14 AM
I know a lot of readers and traders are sick of talking about China, and that is understandable, but the simple fact is they are relevant until they are not.

Further research into the macroeconomy of the PRoC indicates that key officials actually do understand the inherent dangers of rampant credit growth and misdirected capital (what we Austrian economists call "malinvestment").  They appear to be attempting a "soft landing", meaning they are actually tightening credit in order to attempt to control the economic contraction that everybody sees coming. They are probably not going to tighten enough, because the danger of a catastrophic crash is too great if they over do it, but that is by no means certain. These are smart people faced with the impossible task of figuring out just how much liquidity the market needs.

How ironic that even here in Bitcoin, investment strategy is still so heavily dependent on front-running policy decisions by central banks.

What this means for Bitcoin is that there is unlikely to be much growth in China of new users, at least not enough to matter much in the next few months. That does not mean that existing investors and speculators won't increase their bitcoin purchases if they are able to, and conditions seem to warrant. There also remains a non-zero probability of a major Chinese liquidity event, such as the closure of a large exchange, even more hostile policy, policy interpretation or enforcement from thePBoC or the State.



I though that some exchanges already talked about moving out of china... like to hong kong ?  or was that just rumors?  and really moving would NOT necessarily solve the china issue for customers in china.. .. just would allow the exchange to keep operating from its new location.
29283  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: April 18, 2014, 06:24:58 AM
How many people have not heard about Bitcoin?  I ask people about it all of the time and almost everyone looks at me puzzled and then asks me what it is.  Only a couple people have even heard about it.  One was very much of a "libertarian" mindset so he had studied it.  I live fairly close to Los Angeles so this is a highly populated area in the US and even pretty "high tech."  I am starting to see more things in the news though and it is slowly gaining some awareness.  But there is no way we are at the "halfway point" yet.  I guess if it remains a "niche" currency, perhaps, but there is so many things in the works that it is highly unlikely that happens.

We can't just rely on this though. For all we know bitcoin can still die before it reaches its potential or remain a niche that only a handful are willing to use. I'm on your side but I'm just being realistic


I think that's what I am saying too. 

Surely we see quite a bit of attention going into the expansion of bitcoin with increased merchant acceptance and also the spreading of ATMs, but there is also some pull back too, such as Apple making matters difficult and regulations and China FUD and various incidents of BTC being stolen (GOX).  So in that regard, we may NOT know that we are more than halfway through the life until after we have past the point of half way.

I also see that there is a lot of bitcoin potential, and that is why I have diverted quite a few of my investment funds from other asset classes, such as index stock funds to instead be invested in bitcoin.  NONETHELESS, if next year we have a 10X increase - then we can be assured we are NOT half way yet in bitcoin's adoption......   But if we do NOT, then we may need to question whether we har past half way or whether a different model is more applicable to bitcoin. 

Anyhow, maybe I am just getting a little more concerned about my investment based on this nearly 5 month long downtrend in prices... 

I think a lot of the great things that will happen within the Bitcoin protocole are being thought of or created at the moment but it takes some time; among the genius and entrepreneurs that decided to leave everything and go create a Bitcoin business in 2013 some will succeed in 2014, some later on or they will fail and try to create something new that will add value to Bitcoin

I agree that some of the recent ideas about the side chain (s) are very interesting and promising for bitcoin to be able to acquire and/or coopt nearly any and all of the features of competitive cryptos.
29284  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE : Wall Observer on: April 18, 2014, 06:17:48 AM
Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.
Oh! Wel, well, well...  Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.


LMAO!!!!!! Ohh I just had a grand realization - that notorious 'Final Lesson' Jorge has been warning us about in ominous terms since months now must be a candid pic of his decrepifying behind scantily clad in a hula skirt while doing a literal round of the 'spinning' he'd always been accused of doing here - a sight sure to indeed leave even most internet-hardened veterans scarred for life Grin  Prof., you must show mercy ahahaa

What i received was kind of like that...

It seems that you, post comic, are going to have to engage Jorge sufficiently, in order to become a lucky recipient (if you want to call it luck). 

I found it to just be a continuation of the same thing that I had been accusing him.. non-responsive to my concerns about his intentionally spreading misinformation here.  Probably, we should NOT be calling him professor b/c that gives way too much credence to him and many of his non-sense posts...

I will concede that sometimes there may be some good information contained in his posts, but frequently there is a hell-of-a-lot of misinformation or poorly spun information contained therein.
29285  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 05:45:29 AM
It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links...

Sounds like he wants to learn your IP, which I think others have been banned for PMing similar.

I just don't like to click on links.... but sometimes the links are in the public forum.. so if there are links in the public threads, then sometimes I will click on those links if they seem like they may be relevant to the topic that is being discussed.   

Also, Jorge ended up sending me the PNG within a second PM.. without the link... so I am NOT sure.

Personally, I actually think that this forum is way too liberal with trolls, and whether various kinds of conduct is worthy of banning, I do NOT know very much about that.... b/c sometimes members get pretty outrageous in their posts.  Surely, I like to swear sometimes, but mostly just to emphasize a point.. not usually directed at anybody... but every once in a while, I will get irritated by someone and say something derogatory..
29286  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 05:25:32 AM
Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.
Oh! Wel, well, well...  Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.


oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

You may be correct - that engaging with him is a big waste of time.

I have been having a few battles with him regarding the contents of his posts, yet there were a few posts of his that caused me to consider matters a little bit differently (in other words I got some value out of them).  And, also, I had thought that it may be helpful to point out the deceptive aspects of the content of some of his posts, but that may be a big waste of time, too.

My dilemma is that I hate for some obvious misleading to go unchecked - even though it seems about half the posts in this thread are trolls or trollish in nature.
29287  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 04:54:20 AM
Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.
Oh! Wel, well, well...  Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.


oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.
29288  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 04:52:01 AM
Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.
Oh! Wel, well, well...  Grin

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.


Well, I will report.  I am NOT sure if I get it.  It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links... especially if someone on a quasi-anonymous thread is threatening to give me a lesson that may cause me to disappear from the forum after I am accumulated over 1,100 posts.

So, anyhow, I am NOT sure about whether I got the meaning of the Exemplary lesson, b/c I could NOT tell what it is, exactly.  Sorry about that b/c I did intend to cooperate to the extent that cooperation was within my reasonable abilities, and I was hoping that the lesson was NOT going to be anything too bad.. or voodoo or anything like that. 

Seems like I have been threatened a few times in this quasi-anonymous forum.. funny that is... i mean strange that is.


29289  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE : Wall Observer on: April 18, 2014, 03:26:14 AM
*snip*

 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom  Kiss

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.


Ah, slowrolled by a lurker! I respect your approach, actually. I did the same thing as you, read for months and months before I even created an account.

You're 100% correct that I don't know you, which is why I never spoke in certainties. I just went on the information you gave us in your posts, which was relatively quite a bit for only 7 posts, you've got to admit. It was enough for me to be comfortable with the assumptions I made even though they turned out to be somewhat incorrect. When the risk is not great, and here it was not, I'm fine working with limited information.

If my post does not help you, I'm pretty sure it will help someone. If you feel you've got the knowledge, who am I to argue? Now you've got to apply it. But based on the last portion of your response, you knew that already.

 Grin Grin  You are hilarious.. especially when I agree with you.  You have been less "hilarious" when we disagreed.. he he he.. whatever...  Cheesy
29290  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 03:21:45 AM
<snip>
 Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?


nope. you got me pegged, definitely NOT the saving type Wink

 I mined a bunch of different coins, and have almost none left. Luckily, if things go the way I hope they are gonna go, then "almost none" will be "just enough".

I am glad you did NOT take my comment personally, b/c I did NOT mean it to be in any kind of judgmental way. I already understand that people have a variety of personalities and some styles will NOT easily fit some people.   Accordingly, each of us looks for, and hopefully finds the style(s) that works for him/her.

Personally, I would go crazy, if I were to employ a form of balls to the walls type investing.  I prefer incremental investments and continuous readjustments.  Though I am sure over the years my style has evolved somewhat.  Nonetheless, I have always been somewhat of a saver... yet I have quite a few friends who are NOT of that personality type. 

Actually, probably the majority of people have pretty loose savings plans (whether rich or poor), and certainly, the ones with the larger paychecks can get away with more screw ups... but even well to do people can get into a pickle if they overextend themselves into consuming way more than what is within their incomes.
29291  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE : Wall Observer on: April 18, 2014, 03:13:58 AM
I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

[..]

 Hmmm Roll Eyes  And how well I know, about them. Their posting, and trading/thought patterns, are predictable, at this point.

 ..What I haven't revealed so far is that I've read this thread almost exclusively, 15-30hrs a week on average, since Jan 11th this year. I literally read every page (good bit of skimming at times, admittedly - no other way, if going through that much..) since back when we were at the 3900's of posts & Arcas, Empowering, Luno, 'Doc' Holliday (I miss his wry humor..) & Goat/Loaded were still seen posting in here.

 I just made the acct not because I just 'discovered' trading or crypto/etc, but because I simply don't like to waste people's time w/ yet more repetitive dribble, there's already 6k of it in here ffs.. lol. If I'm gonna post, I want it to have some effort put into, so there's a small chance at least 1 person might find it of any value, instead of moar spam. So.. that effort? THAT is why I waited that long to make this acct. I procrastinated. The Activity:5 is a lie.. xD

 But, I love this place. I truly appreciate it, esp. TER, BJA, Keyser, Adam, Amino, Blitz & even Jorge & Fonzie's trollishness. And I did learn some tricks from it. Nevertheless, I find myself rolling my eyes knowingly, with a faint smirk, to all these ignorant grand proclamations of 'sUingle d1gitz dAwq' '$9.99' & '7-50k within 2014' from the same amused cognizance that all you veterans experience ;p  I just did it as a 'Guest', until yesterday.

 As for BTC itself, I didn't know it existed until Sept '13. In Oct. I knew about prices weekly. By Nov., I knew about them twice a day. In early Nov. I bought my very first BTC. In very late Nov., after some epiphany of curiosity & googling, & came upon Cryptsy. I sent them .01 only, thinking they may easily be a scam. After couple test trades & withdrawals went through fine, only then did I send moar in.

 I missed the wave. Could've been a thousandnaire like you guys by now had I got in most of these small-time alts back in Oct-to-Mid-Late-Nov at the latest. But by the time I was familiar w/ it all, it was too late. Nov 18 Congress 'endorsement' & all the crazy Cryptsy/alt price explosions had mostly taken place already, it was dumping time, and I indeed lost a good portion of the equity I had been lucky enough to make.

[..]

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low.


 I do panic-buy, and short, and sell. Too much in fact. But I've done too little before, too. A balance is crucial. Here's an example : The last time Stamp was around 533-537, that was a great time to get out. I didn't. I knew I should've, but held. The 540's high was not able to be reached again. It had to not only reach it, but BREAK thru it in order to be safely confident about a greater high, the new bull minitrend continuing, etc. It didn't even have the fuel to reach it. Obviously Huobi & Co are desperate to not correct further, and keep going up, but it's just not happening. The correction has to occur, and at least a moderate bit farther than merely 3020/481.

 I do over-invest, it's easier to be on the safer side of trading when one has more capital to play with. But that will come in due time. A good thing about smaller sums is that, well, if you do get wiped out, you can find the same small sum to invest again within a month or a quarter's wages. I've done it before, sadly, and it's far from people here's mortgages money & life savings etc Undecided

 Too desperate and you lose. Too complacent/long-term and you lose too. I've lost since 2005. (stocks & FX, not crypto....) Some years w/o any trading, some w/ holding on to bad practices, 'holding on' for 'long-term' in various ways. Balance is key, speaking from experience.

[..] Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5.


 No question. Too bad I was doing FX & not crypto, back in '11-'12 & most of '13.

[..] ..so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.


 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom  Kiss

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.


You may want to consider a form of dollar cost averaging.  That's what i do.  You can tailor the dollar cost averaging to your budget. 

I had a similar situation to yours, in that I started with my research into bitcoin in November 2013, yet I had $30k that I could invest into bitcoin.  Accordingly, I decided to spread that $30k over 6 months, b/c I knew that BTC had just had a pretty large bullrun (at the end of November 2013).

Anyhow, my point is that you could budget as little as $50 a month for your investment, and it will add up over time.  Then you could invest daily, weekly, monthly or whatever increment is comfortable for you.  In the beginning you may want to front load a little bit.  So let's say you have $2,000 and then thereafter $50 per month.  You determine your strategy, but you may say that you want to invest the whole $2000 right away (which I would NOT do, but to each his own), or you may say that you would strategically invest $500 for each of the first two weeks, and then you would invest $250 per week for each of the four weeks after that and then go to your $50 per month plan... or you could figure out something more active.  I did daily purchases for my first three weeks or something like that.

Surely, you seem more eager than planning out a strategy, but once you figure out the variety of your expenses, then you should NOT feel compelled to leverage (or borrow money) in order to invest.  Leveraging is more of an advance player's move who is really familiar and confident in his/her ability to make the money back b/c of experience in having had done it repeated times and having a back up position in case the leverage does NOT pay off. 

Anyhow, my point is once you build up various systems of investing, then you build up a nest egg.. and maybe one or two or five years down the road, you can transfer that nest egg into something that is really ground floor and where you have built up your capital (that is how I had gotten my $30k that i had available to invest into btc in the end of 2013 and that was NOT my total available money, only the money that I had consciously allocated for crypto investing).



29292  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 02:51:13 AM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.



7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct? No, it's a video card. If so, did it pay for itself, yes. and for how long were you able to use it? I'm still using it, but not for mining anymore, it still kicks some serious ass when it comes to video games though. Did you have to retire it? no.  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too? I will never sell this thing! It will be put in a museum some day!

My answers in RED   Grin



Thanks... for your responses.

I agree that you get even a bigger bonus out of your purchase of the item (the 7970) if you are able to multi-purpose it.





29293  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 02:48:26 AM
But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between [ the number of active wallets ]  and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014...   You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

If the number of active wallets N(T) was connected to the price P(T), in four months during which P(T) varied up and down several times, by 40% or more,  we would expect to see at least some corresponding variation in N(T).  I don't see that.

If we are supposed to look only at the long term (3 years) and ignore any deviations spanning 4 months or more, then the statement is not convincing because we get two steadily exponentially quantities, so that any other exponentially increasing quantity -- such as the increasing quantity of CO2 in the air -- would "explain" the increase inP(T) just as well as N(T).


I agree with you that there can be a large number of variables, and some of the variables are 1) clearly and unambiguously connected, 2) likely connected, 3) likely not connected and 4) clearly NOT connected.

The mere fact that you may have NOT have seen any scintilla of evidence of a connection during your selected period of time, does NOT mean that the logical conclusion is that N(T) and P(T) are clearly NOT connected.  The explanation can be that there are larger overriding forces at play during that period of time that are interfering with the connection with N(T) and P(T). 

Great attempt to send this topic out on a wild goose chase, but neither of us have provided data to rebutt a claim of a connection or NOT; however, the claim sure as hell makes sense to me that if you get an increased number of users of bitcoin, then the price is likely going to go up with the increased number of users.  Even though wallets are NOT a direct measurement of users, it is a good enough approximation of there being an increase in the number of users... which will likely have a direct correlating positive effect on BTC prices (at least that seems to be the theory that Aminorex was postulating).












selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price)

I don't know why some Americans are worried about the American economy; if one looks at the last 600 years, ignoring small variations, it has been a tremendous growth.  Wink

Again, you seem to be striving to take this on some wild goose chase by making some extreme example....  However, your extreme example seems to work against you and to support my argument about what you are doing by your time selectivity.

 Let me see if I can use the same example to help to clarify the point.

You are correct that if we compare the USA economy over 600 years to the last 6 months in order to make some kind of a point, then that point is going to be lost b/c a lot has gone on in 600 years that may or may NOT be helpful.

I am merely telling you that it is NOT a good idea to continue to begin from the top of the bubble to make your repetitive points.  I think that you are doing it on purpose in order to communicate about jibberish... and maybe I should NOT be entertaining you (or as they say feeding the trolls).  Certainly, you seem smart enough to know better and to pick some more meaningful time period, instead of trying to exaggerate to the max... when you exaggerate to the max, then you lose any sense of credibility or objectivity in my reading.. and you are also distracting and confusing others who may NOT realize the extent of your selectivity in making your supposedly academic points.  I have NO idea about whether you are really a professor, like you claim to be, yet certainly, you seem to be doing much disservice to academics by projecting yourself as such in the bitcoin sphere... you frequently take the posters in this thread away from actual facts with your skewed and seemingly disingenuous spins that are subtle enough to sometimes miss b/c frequently, your presentations are packaged with a decent and comprehensive organization.. with good English...

I would imagine if you really are a professor in Brazil, then you teach in portuguese, not in english.. so how come your english is so good?









Fuck..... You know [ ... ], Jorge, [... ] This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to [ ... ] That is hardly academic, random or objective...   YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

It is a pity that my Exemplary Lesson got punctured, you would definitely need to get it now.

Look, I understand that you are frustrated by this irrelevant price oscillation that has been going on since December.  But it is not my fault, is it?  You must have done something to deserve such punishment from the Bitcoin Goddess.  Did you perchance tread into her temple with dirty shoes?  Break a sacred jade mirror? Kill an albatross? Offend an old teacher?


First of all.. why did you edit out some of the text of my earlier post?

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Third:  You are correct that I am frustrated by the ongoing downtrend in BTC prices since December, but my frustration about BTC prices downtrending is NOT a motivation for me to comment upon your post(s).  Overall, I feel pretty comfortable that my investment strategy is going to pay off fairly lucratively - even though I am putting more time into monitoring and tweaking my investment plan b/c of the various aspects of the BTC price performance since December 2013.  You know that in the end, my time will likely pay off pretty well too.. b/c I have accumulated way more bitcoins than I had expected that I would be able to accumulate... ... anyhow, time will tell about my bitcoin investment, and I am NOT too worried yet.. even though I remain a bit frustrated.. as you mentioned.

The rest of your content here.. is merely humor that is seemly directed at my expense.  I did find it quite a bit funny, even though irrelevant, and NOT really applicable to me, but still fairly artfully presented... so yes, made me chuckle a little bit at getting some misdirected attention.   Cheesy   Grin



29294  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE : Wall Observer on: April 18, 2014, 01:58:37 AM
I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.


Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

I agree.  That is one piece of sound advice, artfully expressed.
29295  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE : Wall Observer on: April 18, 2014, 01:50:53 AM
My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.


Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

That's pretty hard won advice from people who've been there and done that.  

I'm sure we'd all love to be turning debts to dust within days. Perhaps a few on here can do it. The majority will soon end up on the wrong side of a trade and get deeper in the hole.

And your backup plan is to have half your worth in low priced alts? You may well score big on one but that's a massive amount of exposure for markets that are usually piddling and easily milked to death.


There are so many alts to chose from.

Each person has to chose their own comfort level in how diversified to be.  My portfolio is less than 10% in Crypto - however, if the price goes up, then I am going to allow my percentage to increase to 30 or 40% of my total investment(s).  I will reassess, my comfort level, ; however, Part of the reason that I invested in bitcoin was to diversify out of the dollar (b/c my other investments are largely, to my knowledge, tied to the success or failure of the dollar). 

From the crypto portion of my investments - less than 5% of that is invested into alts, and since there are so many alts... I am considering largely abandoning them (actually I am invested in small amounts of the 7 alts that are listed through BTC e).

Personally, I would suggest having an investment portfolio in your comfort zone... and to be sufficiently diversified so that you do NOT become desperate or overly stressed if one or more of your investments crash to zero or near zero in value.




29296  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 01:42:10 AM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.



7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct?  If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it?  Did you have to retire it?  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?

It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.

Thanks... Yes, the devil is in the details.. it is not the size of the boat, its the motion of the ocean.. or whatever other factors concerning how the 7970s were used and then whether the proceeds were spent right away or saved.... Shmadz does NOT strike me as the saving type, but possibly he is?



29297  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 01:27:42 AM
My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.


Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice  Cheesy
seriously though.

confirmed Cheesy

Double confirmed.  Although, I frequently find it quite hilarious to read any post that "advises" NOT to take "any advice" from this forum.   Cheesy
29298  Economy / Speculation / Re: RE : Wall Observer on: April 18, 2014, 01:25:42 AM
My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.


Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.


From what little I know, it is almost NEVER a good thing to be desperate or in a hurry when making any kind of investment, whether long or short-term..

However, I am sure that it works for the rare lucky individual(s)... but it is NOT really a reliable and/or repeatable style....

And, even if that whimsical method is your style, you ultimately, need to be lucky in your picks... with volatile assets, and alts seem to be much more volatile than bitcoin... well in any event, it seems that you need to do your own homework b/c chances are also pretty slim that anyone on a quasi-public forum is going to give you reliable information..... .though you are likely looking for leads in which you can get in on the ground floor for a quick buck...

29299  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 01:14:45 AM
floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin:  Active wallets  Value follows roughly as the square of this figure.  It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting.  What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly.  That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value.  It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.



But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between that number and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

By the way, why would that number N(T) decrease? Does it exclude addresses that are were used before time T but are empty at time T?


Fuck..... You know Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you, Jorge, are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014...   You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price) in order to supposedly illustrate some higher point.  That is hardly academic, random or objective...   YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

29300  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: April 18, 2014, 01:08:30 AM

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating  Wink

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.


yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.



7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct?  If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it?  Did you have to retire it?  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?
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