Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

*snip*

 Claiming to glean anything of insight on 7 posts made over ~24 hrs is like trying to predict the price trend over the next few weeks by looking only at the 1-minute chart on 'Wisdom  

 ..So! Thanks for your attempt, it was actually very entertaining ;p  Seriously, no offense taken, you could've have truly known I was that far from a newbie. I appreciate the intention to help, I trust it is genuine. And what you said is absolutely good advice ..which I already knew. Just have hard time applying the knowledge. Discipline, & capital.

Ah, slowrolled by a lurker! I respect your approach, actually. I did the same thing as you, read for months and months before I even created an account.

You're 100% correct that I don't know you, which is why I never spoke in certainties. I just went on the information you gave us in your posts, which was relatively quite a bit for only 7 posts, you've got to admit. It was enough for me to be comfortable with the assumptions I made even though they turned out to be somewhat incorrect. When the risk is not great, and here it was not, I'm fine working with limited information.

If my post does not help you, I'm pretty sure it will help someone. If you feel you've got the knowledge, who am I to argue? Now you've got to apply it. But based on the last portion of your response, you knew that already.

    You are hilarious.. especially when I agree with you.  You have been less "hilarious" when we disagreed.. he he he.. whatever... 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.

Killer post.

Should be made a sticky in the Newbies section.

Agreed, it's a beauty!
Might reduce bitcoin volatility by itself if stickied in newb section  .

[JorgeStolfi]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

[hdbuck]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

check.

Next?

Hm.  Big spread.  It would be cheating to say $495.  Give the market a bit to close the spread.

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Last couple days there was more and more fiat on Bitstamp - bid side always exceeded 10M, with ask in 14-15M. Last couple hours, bid side is 9M, with ask side 16M. Ratio is also worse in terms of bitcoins.

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

Well, I will report.  I am NOT sure if I get it.  It appears to be an outside link to a PNG, but I do NOT click on outside links... especially if someone on a quasi-anonymous thread is threatening to give me a lesson that may cause me to disappear from the forum after I am accumulated over 1,100 posts.

So, anyhow, I am NOT sure about whether I got the meaning of the Exemplary lesson, b/c I could NOT tell what it is, exactly.  Sorry about that b/c I did intend to cooperate to the extent that cooperation was within my reasonable abilities, and I was hoping that the lesson was NOT going to be anything too bad.. or voodoo or anything like that. 

Seems like I have been threatened a few times in this quasi-anonymous forum.. funny that is... i mean strange that is.

[JayJuanGee]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

check.

Next?

Hm.  Big spread.  It would be cheating to say $495.  Give the market a bit to close the spread.

Ok, $498 now.  Next we're going to meander slowly down to $495.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Raystonn]

$494 now.  And next we will slowly roll up to $498.

check.

Next?

Hm.  Big spread.  It would be cheating to say $495.  Give the market a bit to close the spread.

Ok, $498 now.  Next we're going to meander slowly down to $495.

Ok, blew past it a bit to $494.  Now here's a doozy.  Are you ready for a jump to $501?

[windjc]

Anyone notice that after the high of 3449, the chart on Houbi has been more bearish than Stamp and Finex?

Seems to be a bit more confidence about going up on Stamp and Finex, which is ironic given that they won't go up unless Houbi 1 Kanobi does first.

[silverfuture]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

[windjc]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

But "attack" him and 12 posters come to his defense saying "give him time." I actually have grown to believe that many bitcoiners want to convert non-believers, like its some sort of spiritual healing.

I say let him think and say what he wants, but ask him to leave, because he's an annoyance. But others want to "convert" him.

[windjc]

One of the most fascinating things about watching the order book on Houbi, is that almost everytime an order is executed on one side for more than 30 btc, several orders on the other side pop up to "beef up" the opposite side.

So for instance, small walls will form up and down the order book in reference to a buy or sell execution that seems at all threatening.  Then later, those small walls disappear.

Although often times, when say a 30 btc buy or sell executes, there is immediately a slighty larger opposite buy or sell order - say 50 btc - that pops up a $1 or so away.

[av123]

Second: I do NOT know what you mean by Exemplary lesson.

Oh! Wel, well, well... 

It is decided, then.

In order to avoid collateral damage to innocent readers, I will deliver the Exemplary Lesson to @JayJuanGee by private message.  If he never shows up again in this forum, you will all know why.  If he survives (and I sincerely hope that he will), perhaps he will recover enough to tell you all how bad it was.  In either case, all the other sinners out there will have a chance to repent.

oh plz, come on, cut the crap dude.

I think HDBuck is ignoring me, but YES, it does seem pretty immature for a supposed professor to be engaging in communications that seem like veiled threats.

"Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, very skeptical of its longterm success"  Yet almost exclusively posts in the wall observer thread. Seems legit. Why even bother talking to this person? I have yet to glean one useful bit of information from even one of his posts.  

Dude I've made a killing from his Chinese slumber posts.

[JorgeStolfi]

Dude I've made a killing from his Chinese slumber posts.

Really? 

I did not intend them as trading advice, thye are just an idea that I have been testing and do not know whether it is worth anything.  I m glad (and relieved) that they worked for you.

[av123]

Dude I've made a killing from his Chinese slumber posts.

Really? 

I did not intend them as trading advice, thye are just an idea that I have been testing and do not know whether it is worth anything.  I m glad (and relieved) that they worked for you.

Actually I was being facetious. I don't trust my trading skills enough at this point in time.