Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

True, but I mean I don't fundamentally believe bitcoin can be Banned in China.. so whatever they say.. it is just talk to me. I don't doubt they can hinder it.. but they can probably make more money and hedge with it lol.

[chessnut]

windjc,   all better.

but im just gonna say that EW doesn't work all on its own, I am taking into consideration a lot to do with fundamentals and sentiment behind the scene.

EDIT, just realised you already said that pretty much 

Right. But EW + fundamentals (which is completely subjective) is not good enough in my opinion. You need to look at other technical factors. But, hey, if its working for you now, I'm sure you're happy with that.

Well if you ask me TA is just risk management - very important none the less! waiting for the market to lose momentum before entering is a good strategy, so maybe use a MACD, sure, or an RSI. EW is more than risk management, combined with fundamentals, it gives us an idea of the limits of the market, and the bias. when is selling pressure exhausted, what side is vulnerable to news (sentiment), what has the market prepared for, etc. TA combined with fundamentals does not offer the same reflection of fundamentals.

It is working for me, looking back to my posts over the last 2 weeks, you'll see I bought at 355, sold 420, bought 405, sold 498, bought 498, sold 540, shorted 540, bought 520, and now bought summore at 490. you are right, it cant last forever though.

[Hen0xyd]

Rinse and repeat 

That's one good summary you did there sir !

Can we switch it off or do we need to wait until batteries are empty ?

[billyjoeallen]

I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.

Since 2008 *everyone* has been devaluing their currency.   But its not competitive devaluation, it's co-operative devaluation, an open conspiracy of central banks.  By co-ordination they avoid excessive relative slippage, which avoids most of the political problems with inflating away debt -- the rest are solved by simply funneling money to the principal debtors.  The ECB, because of its nominal mandate, has a really hard time monetizing debt on its own, but it can accomplish this through the back door by coordinated easing.  I don't know what is the quid pro quo they are giving to the U.S., but I'm sure the tab will come due sooner or later.  This kinda, sorta works as long as all the majors are co-operating.  It has been brutal for emerging markets, and it may fall apart if one of the majors defects badly, but it does kick the can another lap down the road.

Your evaluation is not greatly in conflict with mine. The details matter a little, but as I said, I am simplifying. The bank's willingness to coordinate with other central banks depends on how politically autonomous they are. The governments certainly are competing, and the end result is the same. Yes, they are all kicking the can, but the end of the road is coming, sooner for some than for others.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[y3804]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

[tsm13]

Something
Peculiar
Excites
China
Understandably
Look
After
Time
Instead
Of
Now

[shmadz]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some more money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

[chessnut]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

[y3804]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

[chessnut]

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

If you are a noob, dont day trade. simple as that. just hold. in few years you will have seen everything on the market, seen a lot of TA, and then maybe you can experiment.

[ShroomsKit]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

You're gonna get eaten alive.

[shmadz]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

The first rule of Bitcoin is we don't invest more than we can afford to lose!
Call me lucky, I got a few coins just above 400 on the cavertex dip last week and my second deposit cleared the following Monday.  
I haven't sold yet, and my seconds deposit will be used to support the $350 if we trend down, and buy in at 660 if we are trending up after 30 days.

If you want my advice and I'd calculate the cost of the having money on the exchange for the next 4 months then write it off. Then I'd play it safe on trading swings where you are comfortable.

A bubble could form within a month or two, or if trade volume subsides we maybe as long as 6-12 months.  I've invested a little of that cheep coin in alt, and think we may have growth there before we see it a boom in Bitcoin.  (the "smart" money is sounding too confident in my view to see an early boom, I think it is the big of exchange hoarders who are the ones who have to release some liquidity before we drink Campaign)

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

[Adrian-x]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

[boumalo]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

You're gonna get eaten alive.

He can get lucky in the short term but odds are you will sell low and buy high

[shmadz]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday April 18

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-04-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3001 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 483 USD





[ Plot legend ]

EDIT: legend link fixed

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0009, W = 0.982), but substantially below the previously assumed trendline.  It does not seem possible to fit the last three or four points into a plausible trendline. (A parabola might do, but it is hard to justify it in terms of fundamentals.) So we assumed trend break, and a new straight line trend defined by the last two points only; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3185 and B = -92.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.21 CNY/USD. It was 6.21, 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last five Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 22:59 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull, again:

Huobi's predicted price: 3198 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3093 CNY
Error: 105 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 513 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 498 USD
Error: 15 USD
 
NOTE: "You don't even have a clue as to which clue you're missing." -- Miss Manners

[JorgeStolfi]

floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin:  Active wallets  Value follows roughly as the square of this figure.  It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting.  What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly.  That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value.  It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between that number and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

By the way, why would that number N(T) decrease? Does it exclude addresses that are were used before time T but are empty at time T?

[scriptcloud]

Do you guys have an estimate on whats the price of BTC in the next 6 months?