Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday April 18

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-04-18, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3001 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 483 USD





[ Plot legend ]

EDIT: legend link fixed

Today's data point was very good, (S = 0.0009, W = 0.982), but substantially below the previously assumed trendline.  It does not seem possible to fit the last three or four points into a plausible trendline. (A parabola might do, but it is hard to justify it in terms of fundamentals.) So we assumed trend break, and a new straight line trend defined by the last two points only; namely, A + B*(d-d0), where d-d0 is the number of days since Apr/16, A = 3185 and B = -92.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.21 CNY/USD. It was 6.21, 6.23, 6.32, 6.38, 6.21 at the last five Slumber Times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-04-16, 22:59 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-04-17, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20 hours later)

Punished for being bull, again:

Huobi's predicted price: 3198 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3093 CNY
Error: 105 CNY (~17 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 513 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 498 USD
Error: 15 USD
 
NOTE: "You don't even have a clue as to which clue you're missing." -- Miss Manners

[JorgeStolfi]

floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin:  Active wallets  Value follows roughly as the square of this figure.  It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting.  What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly.  That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value.  It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between that number and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

By the way, why would that number N(T) decrease? Does it exclude addresses that are were used before time T but are empty at time T?

[scriptcloud]

Do you guys have an estimate on whats the price of BTC in the next 6 months?

[Post-Cosmic]

LOL for some reason this makes me laugh

~> http://bitbet.us/bet/804/obama-will-mention-bitcoin-before-2015/

[strawbs]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

[Post-Cosmic]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

[chessnut]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice 
seriously though.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[silverfuture]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice 
seriously though.

confirmed

[JayJuanGee]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct?  If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it?  Did you have to retire it?  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?

[pjviitas]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some more money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

HODL...Bitcoin will be $9.99 by the end of the summer

[pjviitas]

Do you guys have an estimate on whats the price of BTC in the next 6 months?

$9.99

Why?...because the largest segment of Bitcoin use is going to grind to a halt before the end of the year.

[JayJuanGee]

floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin:  Active wallets  Value follows roughly as the square of this figure.  It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting.  What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly.  That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value.  It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.

But there does not seem to be a positive correlation between that number and the price, since December:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=30&show_header=true&scale=0

In fact, from Dec/01 to Feb/28, the correlation seems to be strongly negative - when one increases, the other decreases.

By the way, why would that number N(T) decrease? Does it exclude addresses that are were used before time T but are empty at time T?

Fuck..... You know Aminorex was talking about long term, and then you, Jorge, are talking about from December 2013 to February 2014...   You could even selectively pick any time between December 2013 and present and find various anomalies.

This is a repeated SPIN theme with you to selectively pick from December 2013 (the top of the price) in order to supposedly illustrate some higher point.  That is hardly academic, random or objective...   YOUR working with the "facts", in fact, ridiculous and misleading for you to attempt to make your point(s) about the supposed downfall of bitcoin by selectively choosing your comparison reference points.

[Newfeeling]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.

7970 is a kind of mining rig, correct?  If so, did it pay for itself, and for how long were you able to use it?  Did you have to retire it?  Were you able to sell it to recoup some money, too?

It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.

[shmadz]

Do you guys have an estimate on whats the price of BTC in the next 6 months?

over 1000, but my estimate means nothing.

[gentlemand]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

That's pretty hard won advice from people who've been there and done that.  

I'm sure we'd all love to be turning debts to dust within days. Perhaps a few on here can do it. The majority will soon end up on the wrong side of a trade and get deeper in the hole.

And your backup plan is to have half your worth in low priced alts? You may well score big on one but that's a massive amount of exposure for markets that are usually piddling and easily milked to death.

[JayJuanGee]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

From what little I know, it is almost NEVER a good thing to be desperate or in a hurry when making any kind of investment, whether long or short-term..

However, I am sure that it works for the rare lucky individual(s)... but it is NOT really a reliable and/or repeatable style....

And, even if that whimsical method is your style, you ultimately, need to be lucky in your picks... with volatile assets, and alts seem to be much more volatile than bitcoin... well in any event, it seems that you need to do your own homework b/c chances are also pretty slim that anyone on a quasi-public forum is going to give you reliable information..... .though you are likely looking for leads in which you can get in on the ground floor for a quick buck...

[octaft]

I know, it's just so simple & effective to forget about it & hodl for years.

 ..

 ..But, I don't have years. I already spent 9 years (I'm still in 20's so it's mostly fine) losing money to a not-so-expensive-but-still 'variable-rate' learn-the-hard-way tuition fee. I need to make each slice of $$ within days, maybe weeks at most, not months nor years. And I'm not the only one. It's just difficult, not impossible. Some are making it.

 And +, there's always that half of my capital that's sitting in low-priced alts for long-term. That's a sufficient hedge against any trading loss.

People are going to speak in certainties to you here. Remember this: nothing is certain. If you dump in now, you could wind up wealthy in a few years, or you could wind up deeply in the hole never to return if this whole thing turns out to be one huge bubble in the process of popping. If you disappear for a few years and come back, you could find that you were wealthy for a while, but then bitcoin got destroyed. Then again, you could find bitcoin at $2500 and be up a nice chunk. Who knows? The point is, again, nothing is certain. Take any advice that guarantees something, such as "bitcoin to single digits," or "bitcoin to $100,000 within 2 years," with a grain of salt and a lot of skepticism.

Others will talk up their position, screaming bitcoin is dead or bitcoin to da moon based on their position.

I've got to tell you, though. You seem desperate. If you're desperately hoping for a ton of money to fall in your lap in a couple of weeks, that leaves you vulnerable to panic buying when you see it going up. You also seem kind of poor, which means if you over-invest, you will be very vulnerable to panic selling. All of this equates to a personality that is very likely to buy high and sell low. Now is not the time to be investing in bitcoin to get rich quick, that time was at $5. People investing now will need to work to make money, although there's a lot of fish in this pond relative to other markets, so if you get skilled, you can presumably make a killing. I can tell from your posts that you are very unlikely to be skilled, so be careful.

I've found the best time to buy is when everyone else is crying that the price is never going to recover, and every rise is met with cynicism and "bull trap!" The best time to sell is when every drop is met with "bear trap!" and equal amounts of cynicism in the other direction. The first means everyone is out and hoping the price will drop, the second means everyone is in and hoping the price will rise. When there's a mix, that's too risky for me. I don't like making quick trades, I just go for the big ones. I start my buying when the price is getting obliterated, and sell on the way up. The speed at which I sell depends on whether I think we're in a downtrend or uptrend. Uptrends I tend to let it go more, downtrends I try to get out quickly and be more conservative.

And don't ever short bitcoin, and never use leverage. You don't sound like you can afford to do either. There are even some people who are seemingly bears all the time who think shorting is dumb, probably from getting banged hard for doing so at some point.

Learn TA. There are people who hate on it, but I disagree. Spend your time learning how to read charts, and always take your own path. Do not buy or sell simply because someone that seems respectable tells you to. You're probably not skilled enough to be a good judge of who to trust. You can use the posts of others as confirmation of something you're already feeling strongly about, but don't take anybody's word for it without putting in the time educating yourself before you take a position.

If you want to day trade, you've got to educate yourself, and learn to control your emotions. If you don't do that before you start getting into the thick of it, you will almost certainly get destroyed if you don't luck out. Don't rely on luck, luck is for lottery players. Put in the work, and you might just be able to reap the rewards.

[JayJuanGee]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

Buy BTC now, don't take any advice from this forum, don't bother trying to draw lines on charts, don't day trade, don't react if the price swings rapidly in either direction, return in a couple of years from now to find yourself very well off.

I think that's pretty sound advice  
seriously though.

confirmed

Double confirmed.  Although, I frequently find it quite hilarious to read any post that "advises" NOT to take "any advice" from this forum.  

[envy2010]

It's a kind of graphics card that's used in a rig. I can't speak for mining profitability of bitcoin during that timeframe, but if he mined and held litecoins with his 7970's he would have made a killing.

A pair of 7970's would have mined about 150 BTC from Jan. 2012 to Jan. 2013, worth about $2000 USD then but almost $75000 USD now.