Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

maybe you most of all.

Interesting. What is it you think I want to see. I called the top around 530 and missed it by 10. I called a retracement to 480 and missed it by 6.

Houbi bounced weakly off of this last leg down. Now it is edging up again on very very very low volume, just like it does almost every day when it is in a up trend. In the next 3-7 hours, larger money will trade on Houbi just like it did the last 4 days. And that larger money will decide if this bear flag turns into a rocket ship or into another leg down.

I called the bottom on the last drop, I don't think that gives me the right to tell the next person calling a bottom he's bonkers...as far as I can tell you're displeased that he predicts a bounce off of 480?

My humblest apologies to Chessnut and to you.

I just got a little annoyed because he posts rudimentary EW analysis without consideration of other factors. And the best EW analysts on this forum who charge for their services, would be the first to tell you thats suicide.

You can't ignore volume. You can't ignore divergences. You can just look at market sentiment or ignore long terms trends just because your pattern says their should be a wave 4.

EW is a guideline. And the reason it gets criticized is because a lot of newbie EW traders are always redrawing their lines because they don't take in the entire picture.

I'm not saying he is wrong about us going up. I am saying he will be wrong a lot in the future using only EW.

well put nothing to be sorry about, I don't think he alludes to this data as life or death, he advocated one person to have their own break out plan for either situation...

I myself am soley waiting on the 3d MACD for the next signal from the market... its been a while since it could turn green, which is 2morrow 20:00 UTC.

I don't dispute your belief about volume, I've given volume a whole new importance after Tera kept touting it all the way down from 710 bull traps...possibly even you yourself mentioning it.

China is a land mine for TA, In one day they had a bank account close ( which I thought was going to occur due to the last press release a week ago or more...) and then a new 3rd party deposit option hard to navigate these sentiment land mines.

[1715118399]

1715118399

[windjc]

windjc,   all better.

but im just gonna say that EW doesn't work all on its own, I am taking into consideration a lot to do with fundamentals and sentiment behind the scene.

EDIT, just realised you already said that pretty much 

Right. But EW + fundamentals (which is completely subjective) is not good enough in my opinion. You need to look at other technical factors. But, hey, if its working for you now, I'm sure you're happy with that.

[aminorex]

floating around at $500 is NOT so exciting

Here's the fundamental basis for the rising value of bitcoin:  Active wallets  Value follows roughly as the square of this figure.  It doesn't move fast enough to be exciting.  What does happen, though, is that price deviates from its fundamentals relatively rapidly.  That's when you adjust your long-term core position, according as price is a fraction or a multiple of value.  It's not daytrading, but as a slow and stately strategy it is very lucrative.

[windjc]

At any rate, you are ignoring the bear flag on Houbi. Everyone just wants to see what they want to see.

maybe you most of all.

Interesting. What is it you think I want to see. I called the top around 530 and missed it by 10. I called a retracement to 480 and missed it by 6.

Houbi bounced weakly off of this last leg down. Now it is edging up again on very very very low volume, just like it does almost every day when it is in a up trend. In the next 3-7 hours, larger money will trade on Houbi just like it did the last 4 days. And that larger money will decide if this bear flag turns into a rocket ship or into another leg down.

I called the bottom on the last drop, I don't think that gives me the right to tell the next person calling a bottom he's bonkers...as far as I can tell you're displeased that he predicts a bounce off of 480?

My humblest apologies to Chessnut and to you.

I just got a little annoyed because he posts rudimentary EW analysis without consideration of other factors. And the best EW analysts on this forum who charge for their services, would be the first to tell you thats suicide.

You can't ignore volume. You can't ignore divergences. You can just look at market sentiment or ignore long terms trends just because your pattern says their should be a wave 4.

EW is a guideline. And the reason it gets criticized is because a lot of newbie EW traders are always redrawing their lines because they don't take in the entire picture.

I'm not saying he is wrong about us going up. I am saying he will be wrong a lot in the future using only EW.

well put nothing to be sorry about, I don't think he alludes to this data as life or death, he advocated one person to have their own break out plan for either situation...

I myself am soley waiting on the 3d MACD for the next signal from the market... its been a while since it could turn green, which is 2morrow 20:00 UTC.

I don't dispute your belief about volume, I've given volume a whole new importance after Tera kept touting it all the way down from 710 bull traps...possibly even you yourself mentioning it.

China is a land mine for TA, In one day they had a bank account close ( which I thought was going to occur due to the last press release a week ago or more...) and then a new 3rd party deposit option hard to navigate these sentiment land mines.

I dont think the 3 day MACD matters tomorrow and this is why. First, these markets are only following Houbi. And Houbi doesn't follow MACDs or much else for that matter. It loosely follows trendlines and Fib retracements, while the other exchanges follow these technicals much more tightly.

Also, a crossover for 1 period is not going to be a green flag. I doubt too many if any bots react to the 3 day signal and traders aren't going to go headlong in just because.

If we continue to higher highs from here, I think the 3d MACD would give more confidence to the march no doubt.

But without volume none of this matters.

[Davyd05]

True, but I mean I don't fundamentally believe bitcoin can be Banned in China.. so whatever they say.. it is just talk to me. I don't doubt they can hinder it.. but they can probably make more money and hedge with it lol.

[chessnut]

windjc,   all better.

but im just gonna say that EW doesn't work all on its own, I am taking into consideration a lot to do with fundamentals and sentiment behind the scene.

EDIT, just realised you already said that pretty much 

Right. But EW + fundamentals (which is completely subjective) is not good enough in my opinion. You need to look at other technical factors. But, hey, if its working for you now, I'm sure you're happy with that.

Well if you ask me TA is just risk management - very important none the less! waiting for the market to lose momentum before entering is a good strategy, so maybe use a MACD, sure, or an RSI. EW is more than risk management, combined with fundamentals, it gives us an idea of the limits of the market, and the bias. when is selling pressure exhausted, what side is vulnerable to news (sentiment), what has the market prepared for, etc. TA combined with fundamentals does not offer the same reflection of fundamentals.

It is working for me, looking back to my posts over the last 2 weeks, you'll see I bought at 355, sold 420, bought 405, sold 498, bought 498, sold 540, shorted 540, bought 520, and now bought summore at 490. you are right, it cant last forever though.

[Hen0xyd]

Rinse and repeat 

That's one good summary you did there sir !

Can we switch it off or do we need to wait until batteries are empty ?

[billyjoeallen]

I foresee a race to the bottom where most countries try to debase, debauch and devalue their own currency faster than other countries until somebody cracks. What i am saying is that China shows signs of cracking. Japan has already begun the process of cracking, because they have a 30 year head start in the process.

Since 2008 *everyone* has been devaluing their currency.   But its not competitive devaluation, it's co-operative devaluation, an open conspiracy of central banks.  By co-ordination they avoid excessive relative slippage, which avoids most of the political problems with inflating away debt -- the rest are solved by simply funneling money to the principal debtors.  The ECB, because of its nominal mandate, has a really hard time monetizing debt on its own, but it can accomplish this through the back door by coordinated easing.  I don't know what is the quid pro quo they are giving to the U.S., but I'm sure the tab will come due sooner or later.  This kinda, sorta works as long as all the majors are co-operating.  It has been brutal for emerging markets, and it may fall apart if one of the majors defects badly, but it does kick the can another lap down the road.

Your evaluation is not greatly in conflict with mine. The details matter a little, but as I said, I am simplifying. The bank's willingness to coordinate with other central banks depends on how politically autonomous they are. The governments certainly are competing, and the end result is the same. Yes, they are all kicking the can, but the end of the road is coming, sooner for some than for others.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[y3804]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

[tsm13]

Something
Peculiar
Excites
China
Understandably
Look
After
Time
Instead
Of
Now

[shmadz]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some more money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

[chessnut]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

[y3804]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

[chessnut]

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

If you are a noob, dont day trade. simple as that. just hold. in few years you will have seen everything on the market, seen a lot of TA, and then maybe you can experiment.

[ShroomsKit]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

You're gonna get eaten alive.

[shmadz]

My money finally cleared, I'm curious to know what you guys would do at this moment if you were in my shoes.

I was planning on just sitting this one out, I'm still paying interest on the money I borrowed to buy that last dip, but when we broke down below 400 on virtex I also broke down and tried to get some money in.

That money has finally landed at the exchange. I was planning on using half to just buy whatever I could immediately and then set a tranche down to 300 with the rest, but I was also planning on the money arriving on Monday...

mostly just wondering what you guys would do right now.

The first rule of Bitcoin is we don't invest more than we can afford to lose!
Call me lucky, I got a few coins just above 400 on the cavertex dip last week and my second deposit cleared the following Monday.  
I haven't sold yet, and my seconds deposit will be used to support the $350 if we trend down, and buy in at 660 if we are trending up after 30 days.

If you want my advice and I'd calculate the cost of the having money on the exchange for the next 4 months then write it off. Then I'd play it safe on trading swings where you are comfortable.

A bubble could form within a month or two, or if trade volume subsides we maybe as long as 6-12 months.  I've invested a little of that cheep coin in alt, and think we may have growth there before we see it a boom in Bitcoin.  (the "smart" money is sounding too confident in my view to see an early boom, I think it is the big of exchange hoarders who are the ones who have to release some liquidity before we drink Campaign)

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

[Adrian-x]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

[boumalo]

Bear flag? There doesn't seem to be any buying power supporting those small dumps. At least 100BTC dumped and I only see small 0.05 buys

this is my non biased day trading approach.   in case it is a bear flag. also break below 490 would be a pretty strong bear signal.

I'm a noob trader (no TA, only trade following news). Which indicators should reveal which direction BTC is heading short-term? Or am I supposed to watch the market book every minute and wait for a dump/pump?

You're gonna get eaten alive.

He can get lucky in the short term but odds are you will sell low and buy high

[shmadz]

Thanks dude. I always adhere strictly to the first rule, but it does bear repeating 

I read the word "borrowed" to invest in bitcoin which i don't yet have enough confidence to do.

yes, I understand completely, and it's not something I would recommend to anyone.

I think it was Christmas of 2011 when I first borrowed against the unsecured line of credit my bank gave me to buy some 7970's. I've since become addicted to having that access to instant liquidity, and just like my other addictions like beer and cigarettes, I simply write that money off to the cost of my own stupidity.