Wait till January, I know at last a person that will do his part in the difficulty drop 


If it's not that much of a bother, can you quote some prices for the s19s series, used ones?
Oh, and what I mean about prices is not the one people are asking for, if you have some information on the price at which gear is actually bought, not staying 6 months in a warehouse waiting, I need to do a little planning.


I can even settle for 2 candles of 2$ if the war ends in the next 10 days, but this is just wishful thinking, no way it will end before spring. The muddy then freezing season is here, the conflict will be frozen and no side will retreat as it knows the other won't be able to make significant gains over winter and early spring, so even without actually battles, it will still last at least till then.
And without really positive news from the economy, I don't see Bitcoin gaining traction either, people are acting fearfully, and I don't see any bull run happening in these conditions.


Half gone 4.2% up,  hope of only 1-2% is fading away!

99% of it.
The rest of the 1% comes from people who just don't want to admit they are gambling and hiding behind random lines of TA thinking it's different from checking the previous numbers of goals scored in match by a team.


They are the same, this is the same kind of denial people just part all day to try to make themselves look better and avoid looking at the risks it involves.

The average gambler only knows how to bet on a single or a few events, go and take a look at the gambling board and half of them would have a problem understanding a handicap or a spread and I'm pretty sure 99% of them would need hours of reading a tutorial before understanding a betting exchange and how it works. In trading most of them just buy because they think it's a low price and they sell when they have a profit, some go for leverage which it's petty easy to do, of course 1000x times harder to make money out of it but the reality is that you can place any sort of trade (and lose money) far easier than a lot of sports bets.

Shitcoin trading is gambling, end of it, they have zero reasons to look like anything else, at least with a match there is no way that if Buterin holds a banner with Barcelona during the game the result will change, with crypto one imbecile or one fake rumor and you have a 20% swing in minutes, and no TA will ever mage to predict that.

Who else but Quagmire!!Franky!
Oh, and btw, I already know his comeback story, in his imagination, every miner with an s19 (not even talking about the guys till mining with s9) has dumped their gear, and they now mine with the latest and most efficient gear, that despite the fact that before that he stated the same once more, so taking into account the time passed nobody would have made an ROI on those and they are already dumping them and buying new ...because that's how running a business looks for some!
Oh sorry, that's how bankruptcy looks like a real business for some!


I run into this article on the difficulty speculation thread:

TLDR: prices for electricity are so high and revenue so low mining gear is still sealed up in the boxes they've arrived and we have at least 300k of those, assuming the lowest price is 6 million in gear, 30 exahashes at least! It's nearly the worse period for revenue, just one tiny step till October '20, and it might not be that long till we cross it which means we will soon peak in difficulty if the prices don't move.

A perfect example of what I was talking about, Disney-style planning and reality.

In your plan you've already identified the supplier, you know the price at which you will get it, you drive to the dealer, you rent your harvester and you're good to go!

In reality, you've just spent $7,500 on a grain cart!!!! Which as the name implies does not harvest a thing!
So, don't you think that the moment you can't differentiate between a gain cart and a harvester, is the moment you should look for another hobby and realize that in the future business planning agriculture and farming are off the list?  

If things would be that simple everyone would be into it, but they aren't, I spent my childhood at a farm, and I've spent more than a decade working again there after my college years for everything, from accounting to actually driving that stuff around, I wouldn't want to go back even if I would have to choose between cleaning sewers with a pressure washer and farming! And you know why? Cause cleaning a damn farm is sometimes worse than a sewer!!!
There is Disney where every animal tends for itself and only comes to you to give you milk while trees and crops grow by themselves and there is a reality where one infected animal and you have to put them all down and one hailstorm and the whole orchard is ruined not just for this season but maybe even the next also!


Everything will be a bad example if you think of making money without work!
If things were that simple everyone would, how do you even say it, not doing a thing and earning money?
But as you can see, it's more and more quitting rather than approaching this field, because it's a risky pain in the ass low margin crap!

That aside, it's one thing growing a few fruits in your 100square yards garden and having this and that and just doing hobby work on them, that works, and it's enjoyable, but a totally different thing to take care of 100 trees. If we weren't a continent apart I would have invited you to come and pick some plum fruits next year, let's see how many 5kg boxes would you be able to do till you give up and you realize you're harvesting fruit at a lower value than flipping hamburgers at McDonald's!

Yeah, usually it makes no sense to put any faith in this, and the 20% up was clearly bs, but the previous difficulty went the opposite way:


4 days into it also was at a ridiculous 10%, and... we ended up with 13%, so, sometimes the worse fear to come true and so do estimators even 1/4 down the way.
But this time it will definitely cool down the growth, not even dare to hope to go negative but still a 1% might be nice.


Don't you hate it when they put the essential stuff in the middle of the article?


Yup, couldn't agree more, and every so-called analyst that will sell those big farmers guys a business plan right now needs to be hanged!

One interesting thing,  did Bitmain just raise up the prices for the S19hydro, yeah 150$ but it's still up?
Old offer:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220711184847228qGon7r0z06E3
$3,792 Shipping Date: 1-30,Nov. 2022
Current one:
https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020220809200603918vTN9svY706BE
$3,950 Shipping Date: 1-30,Dec. 2022

It's still available for coinbase, you just set the time for which you want to keep the trade open and that's it.
Bitpanda (pro) has the same thing:



Unfortunately, there is a small problem, you can't set the time when it expires, you can just select predetermined values, like expire 1,5,30mins from now, 4,6,12 hours a day or a week, so if you plan on setting it up for an exactly specific moment when you know something big will happen, like a FED announcement you can't do it.

Oh yeah, we had that trend here too, but haven't seen a new one in years. maybe the miracles crop search is finally over!
Ostrich farmers, chinchilla farmers, Paulownia, all kinds of berries, mushrooms, and so on and on.
Of course, the final result was fairly obvious, the prices for those were high because only a couple of producers existed in the first place but when you go on and produce 100 times more demand won't come out of anywhere and the price will eventually fall fo most under the cost. Just like the saying about the gold rush, the ones making more money were the ones selling the pickaxes.


Oh no, just no!
It's not planting a few trees and for 5 years you take a beak, you need to take care of them, you need to water them, you need to check for disease or insects or rodents that might chew the bark in winter and the new branches in spring, you need to be careful how they grow and cut branches to keep the right size and the alignment so if you think you're just going to plant them and that's it you're having the same poetic view about farming and that's as far from reality as Disney movies. Not to mention you're going to look at a failure rate, you need to take those out replant, and many more.
If it were that simple everyone would be doing it, and as you can see, not many are!


You make it sound so easy, but who will lend you a cheap machine that has been bought with a few tens of thousands just like that? We're not talking of a chainsaw that you can take a break from and lend to your neighbors for a few days, these are specialized machines that are being used at the precise harvest time, so the one that bought it will be using it for his harvest and once he is done slight chances your fruits are not already rotting in the fields, and the ones buying machines just to lend them, guess how much they are going to charge extra?

Demand and offer!
Just as how instead of $300 per barrel of oil how some idiots predicted we went down to 80$ and they need to cut production to even keep that level once something becomes more expensive it also becomes less sought after, and almonds, pistachios, and every single thing in this exotic category are the first on the list that will be dropped by the average consumer once it doubles in prices, reducing the demand and leaving you with increased costs to revenue ratio and a ton of competition.


2500Kg for a ha, so you need two hectares (5 acres if I'm not mistaken), but that's our full nuts so I guess three times the area at least.
Of course, you need irrigation, you need pesticides, and you also need to HODL your breath for 5 years till they make any serious fruit!
Still keen on doing it? Not to mention that's the packed resell price, not what you're getting for raw product, add another 10% loss just on the nuts that will be thrown away at sorting.

Also, there is one other huge barrier, you either need costly machinery for harvesting (there are special machines exactly for the above-mentioned almonds) or you have to rely on the quite unreliable available workforce which might lead to complete miss your targets or losing the major part of your product and get you in red from the start.

The end of cheap money!

Finally! I mean the actual end! The real end!
Not like the previous one starting in 2004! like he one predicted by the Economist:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2004/04/22/the-end-of-cheap-money
or in 2015 by the same publication:
Borrowers tremble—but the end of cheap credit is not all bad news
or January this year:
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/01/29/markets-have-fallen-because-the-era-of-free-money-is-coming-to-an-end

And I can find 100 ends for every goddamn publication out here, don't believe me?. Here is the financial times:
2013 Asian groups struggle with end of cheap money
2017 End of cheap money leaves central bankers lost for words
2021 The Fed needs to call time on cheap money

This cheap money scare looks a lot like the weak hands, once the cheap money gone is gone something, something will happen, once the weak hands are erased from the bitcoin market we hit the moon. Ironically, every single time there is a market scare the blame goes to cheap money being printed and to weak hands panicking.


Oh yeah, let's throw in blame the west bs to score some points and make a few curious about what's this guy about, and since he's posting his Twitter links in his article, @hugodixon, oh just be amazed of what is morphing there


That's the problem guys, we should go back to our caves, our sole possession a stick and a club, and save the earth from our corrupted hedonistic culture.

Oh really, 15k?
But, but, there was one guy called franky1 who said that during the first part of the year at 200Exa the cost is impossible to go below 28k...



Since you obviously know what you're talking about can you do me a favor and teach this guy who I've quoted above to keep his mouth shut when it comes to mining costs or mining price or anything related to mining as it's clear with every post he makes every month that he has zero clues what he's talking about?

And he kept on babbling about the minimal cost from 40k to 35 k to 30k to 25k...and he keeps on babbling , he just can't stop

The same problem here in Europe:
we have hit record employment levels since the founding of the EU, roughly 8% up in a decade and with enormous room for more!
And to make things even more interesting this whole statistics don't take into account foreign citizens that don't have a fiscal residency here but still work in European companies. The labor market in Europe has managed to absorb 400 000 Ukrainian refugees who have found a job, that's how desperate we were here for hiring, you're human and you know how to communicate you can get a job for sure, there are hundreds of companies who are resorting to paid training months, just sign a 24 months contract that you won't quit and they are ready to hire you and pay you even in the first 3 months you're learning how to do your job.

So much for the death and destruction of the US and EU economies.


Yeah, quite a different thing around here where there is doom and gloom and only talk about crashes, recessions, new world orders, bankruptcy, and other collapses. God forbid there should be a discussion about good things happening, no way, there is no such thing!!!


Manufacturing in most big companies has stopped for a decade being about physical labor, and assembly lines made out of hundreds of workers gluing stuff together are becoming and have become in most cases a thing of the past. I can give you an example like the tire factory my cousin works for, they are hiring about 1000 people and 80% of the jobs are hybrid, most of it you can do from home, R&D,  engineers for safety mechanisms, architecture, developers, testers, etc I think the ratio of brain vs muscle needed is 20:1 at least.

Probably your friend has the wrong impression of what a true economical ecosystem is.

Smart contracts can be used in some deals, but that doesn't mean they have an ecosystem it means they have applications for it, an ecosystem is a situation where each of the parties involved is interdependent on the other and can influence them, there is no real business other than some stupid jpg game that has anything close to resembling such a thing. Just because two people might want to make a deal that would be replicated in a smart contract doesn't mean they are forced to do it or they don't have the option of completely ignoring smart contracts and preceding in a traditional way, just as the entire world is doing right now!

None of those businesses (tokens) are matching one of the main points in the definition, and that is a "constrained" space limited by borders or laws, just how tether can issue tokens with the same value on Tron and ditch Eth without a fuss all those systems can be recreated in an instant within a different border. None of the said parties is completely interdepended of the other one.

Furthermore, 99% of the altcoins there are just participants in this mess, issuing tokens on a different chain, what's the backing they are receiving, at the end of the day every single token altcoin NFT and even Bitcoin is backed by only one thing, the trust of the people who would spend x amount on it, thinking that that's how much they are worth it, nothing else. Crypto kitties were valued in hundreds of thousands of dollars, now they are worth pennies, what's their backing power?

I knw I had one of these opened, and what  a surprise again,

Bitcoin Sinks After US CPI Report Shows Inflation Hotter Than Expected


The moment the inflation prediction was missed by 0.1% BTC again tumbled 3% in a flash.

Lucky for us seems like Bitcoin has become so correlated to the stock market it follows it in every step, just after the plunge all the markets rallied on the premise of FED reaching the peak of their intervention, DJI by 2.2%, SP500 by 1.9%, and Bitcoin also came back to the previous day values, recovering almost 4%.

And for everyone that was using it since obviously the cost will increase, with everything becoming more expensive some cleitns will stop ordering o using the car-sharing service and in the end with fewer customers, the drivers themselves will find themselves with benefits but, out of work! Carsharing services have put traditional taxis on the verge of bankruptcy because there were more affordable, easier to order and the pay was better distributed, now since they know better, they will ruin this too.
In the end, the only ones happy will be the stupid ones in congress who will declare victory for the worker against corporations!


Yeah, this is how it all starts, a little tax won't hurt, a little more tax for unemployment won't hurt as there are benefits, a little more tax for healthcare won't hurt, and add another few percent as all that money comes back to the population through government spending and soon we're going to reach levels where a company pays 90% in taxes and 10% in wages, we're already at 50/50 here, so if for example, my company would want to increase my wage by 500 euros they would actually have to pay 1000 as another half goes to the government, for, stuff!

Expectation versus reality and now everyone has had a full cycle of 4 months of cold showers of reality

When the fed increases the rates to combat high inflation and there are signs of a possible recession happening people don't rush to these, first because the lower class which is the most affected can't spare the money in the first place, the middle class seek far more secure and guaranteed investments like bonds and the ones that still have money they re already tied in the stocks, so you won't see them selling in a bear market to lose money to drive the price up in a thing that's already in a bear market.
Time for everyone to acknowledge facts, when people are faced with huge bills coming in or with the perspective of losing jobs the last thing they think of is investing the little money they have in some assets that for a lot of them is still quite hard to understand.
Furthermore, if you put money in gold or bitcoin to hedge against inflation, once you're out of money, what do you do? Not taping into your reserves, as that's why you invested in the first place, to have a cushion once your expenses gain the upper hand over the income?

Switch the chart to 6 months, look at how many new ATH we celebrated in the last few months, then go a bit back in time and see that another ATH was in June, what happened after it? Was there a bull run? Is right now a bull run happening cause those red numbers sure don't look like it.
Seriously, why do we keep mentioning these those two things, if an increase in hashrate would trigger a bull run all we would have to do is buy each a miner, and there you have it, magically once we plug those into the power socket the price will skyrocket, because, that's how things work ...in fiction!

In reality, this is gear that was ordered months ago by people who right now are probably hitting their heads against the wall realizing they bought stuff that will OI in 3 years instead of one and that the electricity price is twice as much as the time of the order and companies that went in debt to purchase those overpriced machines. Look at what stronghold is doing:
Bitcoin Miner Stronghold Returns 26,200 Mining Rigs to NYDIG to Clear $67M Debt


Summer ending in the southern US with lower stress on the grid, Bitmain delivering new gear, some data centers clearing ETH miners and having extra room for sha miners, it's probably one hell of a mix of reasons.


Daily hash rate, it's a useless chart as it depends a lot on luck, today 140 blocks can be mined tomorrow 148, still 144 on average but the graph will show a 6% difference and a new spike, one chart that runs on PST can show 150 blocks on that uses GMT can show 145, pretty unreliable stuff.

Yeah, I just love how one tries to find a pattern by purposely removing inconvenient facts from history.
If you look at what he has picked, the Dutch, English empires, and the US, it's like you see a pattern there, but if one has barely touched the history books he might remember there were a few more, like the French Empire that almost conquered Europe, or the Spanish Empire that held most of Americas at one point, and if you throw those into the mix the cycles becomes really weird, and if you extend the timeline before 1500 then it's definitely a mess.

Also, what this study forgets to mention is one huge difference between all of them and the US, none of the other empires was safe from the war on its territory, and not even the Chinese were safe since from Mongol to Japanese times we can see that in history. The US is simply out of the way of global conflicts, wherever a ww3 will erupt it will for sure not be in North America, unless somehow Canada decided to invade, which would be probably the surprise of the millennium.
And this brings up the need for defense and the loss of possible revenue, the British had to protect colonies all over the world, the Romans had to protect cities thousands of km from the capital, and France, Germany, Russia, and Turkey all had troubles at the border and risked formerly annexed territories to run amok, in the US, where is this danger? Well, nowhere!


Yeah yeah, my grandfather was promised that in newspapers, and my father was told so on the radio, I'm reading this all day on the internet and I have a feeling even in induced telepathic orgies my grandson will hear the same.

He has lost faith in people since he has seen with his own eyes how many have got scammed by his own advertised services, and judging by the still-appearing posts of users losing money with that casino, yeah it's sure one can lose it 


Maybe not even that, he might be fishing for some that intrigued by the request, why only Hungary, then in an act of pure generosity even if you're from Chile he lets you on this secret money-making scheme, he's making an exception just for you, he won't be making as much money as usual but he will share it, seen this kind of bait before, the gullible wanted desperately to make some money will still fall for the temptation.


Perfectly worded up, ss I was saying, from gullible greedy eager to help user to a scam victim is only one tiny step, all it takes is on PM and you're done for.

But, Russia was supposed to trash NATO even in an open battle, not they are running away just because the US has sent 5% of their missile launchers, 0% of their tanks, 0% of their aircraft, 0% of their aircraft carries,0% of their submarines and 0% of their troops in battle?
 
How's that 50% getting conquered by April, then 25% then 20% ?
Right now Russia holds 68k km2 conquered from February 24, that's 11% and even if we include Crimea and the DPR/LNR is still below 18%.

Meanwhile, speaking of a superpower, the super profits that some experts were talking about are, guess what...melting away!
I can remember the stupid cheering on how Russia is making billions in profits, how they have trillions in budget surplus how they can afford quadrillions while Europe sinks in poverty, well, as usual, reality kicks in after the last glass of vodka.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/russia-s-budget-surplus-is-nearly-erased-as-ukraine-war-drags-on


Superpower, why can't some understand that with just gas and oil the only superpower level you're able to achieve is that of Bartovia?
Seriously rather than sending those conscripts into battles they would be better of investing money into bitcoins and trying to sell their tanks as NFTs, far better than having them blown off.


Overdose of hopium and copium detected, as your doctor should have prescribed, take 20mg of ukrainianum in case you still see red flying midgets around you.

Yeah yeah, yeah


We don't need miracle technologies we need miracles in the law of physics and we need somebody to forget it was supposed to be 22 trillion a few years ago and others claim the actual costs are 270 trillion, which looks far more plausible!
These two screenshots are from the German grid:



You don't need to know german to understand that while in the first renewables made 51 out of 66Gwh needed, in the next, they only created 2.7% out of 50GWh needed, so roughly 5%. And Germany, which is 80 million out of 8 billion spent on subsidies! alone ( not overall consumption)  200 billion on this 5%.
As for them being cheaper, just lol, that's why germans are paying only 0.0004 for a kwh now, right? Cause of all that cheap renewables!!!!


Electricity is not made out of apples that need to be collected at a warehouse before shipping and you would lose enormous amounts of it as well as spend billions on transformers and cables and towers for a useless cause. In the last two centuries in every country, power facilities have been built where the demand was, not joined together in a useless mega hub that would just waste resources.