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3221  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin doesn't like inflation either on: August 12, 2022, 09:01:59 AM
Bitcoin is actually the best hedge against inflation there is. If you started buying bitcoin in 2009 to 2015 then I don’t think there is an asset comparable to how well bitcoin has done. Your money would have done a lot better than protect against inflation.

I will never say that bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, even if bitcoin would be dropping in price for a while it will still long-term beat any inflation unless something of catastrophic magnitudes happens. I've amended the title to high to enforce a bit what I was trying to say, if you look just at the price and not correlate that with purchasing power it's clear that it will not grow fantastically in a period of prolonged inflation, it will be able to keep on top looking at the rates but nothing spectacular.

One thing, let's not say 2009! Common, you can actually count the numbers of people who bought coins in 2009 with your fingers.

Sure since inflation hit 8% & higher bitcoin hasn’t done as well but we’re in a bear market, this would have happened to the bitcoin price any way.

And are you sure that if the economy was doing fine and there was no inflation and no war bitcoin would still be in a bear market?
That was actually the essence of this, are you sure it follows it's following its own path and is not actually getting more and more tied to the world events?

Bitcoin is a mid to long term investment, not a get rich scheme.

Bitcoin is a tool, you can use it as you seem fit, you can use it as a currency, you can use it as a hiding place for your wealth, you can use it as a long, medium, short-term investment, and you can still look at it as a quick rich scheme, that's the thing I love about it, that unlike anything else it offers the flexibility of choice.
3222  Economy / Economics / Re: Are CBDCs good for the economy? on: August 11, 2022, 06:38:55 PM
There is a big difference between CBDC and stablecoins. CBDC will be done with governments approval and that would be the key point there, and if you do that then you are going to be fine. But, if you are looking at things that would benefit you in the long run, stablecoins are different and they are a lot better.

Why are stablecoins better than CDBC?
At least with a CDBC, you will know 1 dollar is one dollar, with stablecoins you find out in the morning a UST is equal 2 cents.
Besides, even if stablecoins would be able to keep their peg, they are still doing this to a currency controlled by the same government that issued those CDBCs so, what's the advantage?
Let's add the fact that with stablecoins you don't have to worry only about the government freezing your account but by the ones issuing those stablecoins on top of that like tether has been doing for ages.

So, any reason why somebody would use them over CDBC?


3223  Economy / Economics / Re: Americans’ household debt surpasses $16T for first time on: August 11, 2022, 06:07:23 PM
If a huge country like America is suffering from an inflation crisis, how much more people from the third-world country who don't have any credit cards to rely on?

Well, aren't they safer cause not having a credit card means they can't access that easily a loan so they won't have debt? Just saying.
Of course, I already know that not being in debt won't be the main problem, as I've seen inflation over 50% and no credit card at that time and it wasn't a pretty sight.

I'm afraid that the statistics are not quite correctly formulated. It seems to me that this indicator includes the obligation for mortgage loans, auto loans, and "household" debt load. Otherwise, it turns out that households raised approximately $64,000 for food for each person. From a newborn to the most ancient old man. if we assume that this amount is formed as I described above, then the picture is not very scary - houses, apartments, cars are quite expensive acquisitions, and then everything looks logical.

They've spent more on average more with 200$ on credit, 200$ on car loans, and 1500$ on mortgage per citizen over 16 yo, so even the numbers are not that bad for spending, I think half of that was for real necessities as indeed some feel the pitch of higher prices for food and gas but the other was driven by the consumerism triggered by the return to "normal".

I think the bad part is somewhere else, and this is indeed a worrying sign, the amount of non-prime borrowers with unsecured loans.Fidelity has a better reach of this here.

since we are seeing recession and many people are loosing their jobs as well therefore it's honestly not a shock but government do need to take a step forth and help them out a bit.

Employment levels have constantly grown from the start of the year, no it's not a thing of people losing their jobs, besides, without a job the amount of credit you get is null.
3224  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: How would you spend $50k-$60k for mining? on: August 11, 2022, 05:41:00 PM
Purely Interested in what ASICS people would buy and why. Let’s say it’s based on mining on a 3 Phase supply.

NotFuzzyWarm answered you about that, and I remembered you asked about your electrical setup and you're fixated on these issues when the main question is obviously the same, how much per kWh and how much can you really pull out at that price?
Seeing you're from UK, and knowing you want to mine from your own garage so it's probably residential rates, are you sure about this? I have (not sure for long) still single digits rates and I wouldn't throw a penny at gear now.


3225  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion on: August 11, 2022, 05:10:24 PM
For example earlier this year in Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition in Qatar, the Iranian made AD-200 long-range air defense missile system was present among other things (the selling point was the US stealth aircraft right across the hall that the system had shot down the previous year!).

In case you're not watching the news, even the Iran government has admitted it targeted something else and downed a civilian planed killing 200 innocent civilians, mostly Iranian with that crappy system of yours.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_International_Airlines_Flight_752

So, yeah the entire world has seen how accurate Iranian weapons are, on par with the Russian buks system.
Stick your lying propaganda where it belongs, seems like the more zeros the Rial has against the $, the lower the purchasing power and affordability of food in Iran, and the more people being shot and executed by asking for bread the more we hear about those wundervaffen that will crush the capitalist pigs.

It is surprising that the defense capability of Russia is not very uniform. They have some of the best ballistic missiles, submarines and air-defense systems in the world, but they are lacking in some of the basic sectors such as armed drones and APCs. My understanding is that they are a bit behind in new defense technology sectors,

What a surprise, everything about their might military was a lie, but you still believe things about their might economy..
Cause, it makes sense!

Drones are of course something that is being used more and more, but military planes are still something that every sovereign country that cares about its security wants to have.
Speaking of drones, these days I am reading news about Russia buying drones from Iran (Shahed-129 and Shahed-191) and that the Russian delegation has already visited the Kasan air base several times to see for themselves their capabilities.

Of course, you won't hear it from pooya87 but the Israeli F35 have just had a few of those for dinner, so, it won't be a game changer in a combat theater even without those but where still nearly every guy has a manpad on his shoulder.
3226  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin doesn't like inflation either on: August 11, 2022, 11:53:59 AM
The predicted inflation rates are inversely proportional with disposable income amounts so yes I'd expect bitcoin to boom when the economy starts to recover and improves/remains stable.

Probably the demand destruction happening with oil as it went down despite inflation going up and now that finally inflation seems cooling has recovered some 3% is another clue, people won't spend if they don't have money to spend. People won't buy bitcoins if they don't have money for food and rent, and the whole idea that somehow millions of users that have no power and no bank account will be able to invest enough just to balance the daily mined coins iswell too far fetched.

Bitcoin moves with the other major indices. The NASDAQ and S&P indices bounced sharply after the release of this positive news.

Yeah, another nail in the coffin for the idea that BTC does;t care about the market conditions, I remember a topic about the correlation, guess I'll bump it cause this event is interesting.
3227  Other / Meta / Re: The DT system needs to change. on: August 11, 2022, 11:44:27 AM
You like to be categorical.

Really? I always thought I leave enough room for a debate, well, noted.

Where does the dictionary say that 500 is not an oligarchy and 250 is?  Huh

Quote
government by the few
a government in which a small group

Limiting the number means closer to an oligarchy, common, let's be real, having half of the people deciding means what it means, fewer people in charge of deciding, even if it's not an oligarchy is definitely closer to one that having 2500 is.
Again, I'm not saying it's a bad idea, I'm not saying this system is good, just that it is what it is, I do not think it's normal for just one moron to have the launch codes of a nuclear missile, I don't think it's a great idea to hold a national referendum each year if we need to drop a bomb or not! Seeing how the guy that wrote the scam report format got arrested and jailed for credit card fraud, I'm really curious in two years how we will look at this case that caused it all and who is wrong or who is right.

As suchmoon said, the system is as good as we make it, and I'll add that if people are complete jerks they will be able to make it as bad as it can get, no matter the design, just like the drama you see now is not caused by the system, is caused by the ones using it.
3228  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If the Governments Planned to Keep the Limited 21 Millions BTC in Their Custody on: August 10, 2022, 08:53:46 PM
This cannot happen, do you know the worth amount of the said 21m in USD? that's very huge and they cannot afford to vested on a volatile coin one sidedly when other areas of the economy needed attention with finding as well, they wouldn't want to risk that, besides governments are anti bitcoin except for the ones that adopted it.

Exactly $453,666,662,279 as we speak, that's $453 billion, and if compare with for example US's military annual budget of 800 billion or the $5 trillion spent on the code stimulus in quits being such a huge amount. Of course, this is excluding the increased value as those coins get bought up but a government could easily get slow this down of this by claiming to ban bitcoin completely or starting seizing some large exchanges and their wallets at the same time but still.

But, coming back to OP's main question, why would a government do this? What is the economic reason to grab all the coins?
Grab them and burn them, they will act just like Satoshi coins, and even if 100 coins will not be owned by the government their value will be sky high and we will be dealing with microsatoshi if not nanosatoshi.

Quote
so that the name of bitcoin will die off since no ordinary man has enough to disturb the market

I fail to understand how this is a bad thing.
3229  Other / Meta / Re: The DT system needs to change. on: August 10, 2022, 04:38:43 PM
A system in which the most influential would elect themselves and set the rules would obviously be tailored to those who are currently the loudest.
Another fallacy. That is not the only alternative. Starting with 2 inclusions minimum, and 1 net to get into DT2 seems like some sort of oligarchy to you?


Since you're restraining access to DT2 this way, yeah it turns into an oligarchy by definition since it will be a smaller number of members with deciding power, and don't argue with me argue with the dictionary  Wink
Lucius is perfectly right, if the system changes right now, will we have some democratic vote or it will be just because the most influential and the loudest voices will impose their opinion? And if after 6 months this side loses its members and the other is growing louder and bigger do we reshuffle it again?

Abolish the damn thing altogether, bring bag the scammer tag and let's be done with it!
Oh, wait, who will decide on the tag...shit!  Grin



3230  Economy / Reputation / Re: Clearing my trust list on: August 10, 2022, 04:24:53 PM
It's worse than that: if the people who use the Trust system correctly drop out, that leaves the ones who shouldn't be on DT1.

It will be pretty interesting, can't wait to see a 100+ score on accounts like game-protect or bitcoinsv, or Loycevelenzuela or whatever their names were. So, should we turn back to a previous more, how was that, ..centralized trust system?  Roll Eyes

3231  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion on: August 10, 2022, 03:57:48 PM
Interesting, I didn't know.

You didn't know because that never happened outside the Iran propaganda network.

The reality is that for a brief period of time the sanctions were loosened a bit and Iran went on a shopping spree, ordering airplanes worth 24 billion from both Airbus and Boeing, when sanctioned come back again they dropped some orders that were never going to be fulfilled in time and bought tens of old planes some even decommissioned to have them for spare part.
You can see the arrival of the new jets here:
https://thepointsguy.com/2017/03/inside-iran-air-a320-a321-aircraft/
And the full story is here:
https://simpleflying.com/iran-air-airbus-order/

So no, it's not something like Iran is managing to create spare parts for its planes, that's just wishful thinking.
The reality is that sanctions do work, and they work tremendously well, one picture worth 3000 words



I do hope Russia will take this advice and in 5 years we're not going to compare the Russian economy with Texas or California but with Yellowstone Park.

And with the planes, we'll come up with something, don't even hesitate. If a country is capable of developing sixth-generation fighters, it will somehow figure it out with passenger airliners.
I would not brag about your military planes, which until today have not managed to dominate the sky above Ukraine, and therefore I think that it is just ordinary propaganda that Russia is powerful.

Oh, but they do have 6th generation planes! Definitely!
I mean, maybe it's true that their own military doesn't know that since even the su57 is the fifth generation, but they totally do. It's the new super stealth aircraft that you can see at all, it's so stealth even the bombs dropped from it don't do any visual damage at all.  Grin
3232  Economy / Speculation / Bitcoin doesn't like high inflation either on: August 10, 2022, 12:59:55 PM
Lately, a number of topics have started to pop up,1,2 with users really questioning if Bitcoin has shifted its role (for some), and rather than a hedge against inflation it has become something completely different, and I'm thinking that there is general shift in this direction.

Today was the most awaited day of the week for all traders as inflation numbers were to be published and even crypto traders and crypto blogs seemed to echo one thing, lower inflation is going to be good for bitcoin price.

Quote
Covering July, the data was due at 8.30am Eastern time Aug. 10, with expectations demanding it show that U.S. inflation had already peaked.
“CPI prints have been pretty pitoval for BTC price action,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente wrote in part of a tweet about the event, adding that CPI would form a “big day” for crypto.

Quote
Should the CPI rise above the consensus expectation for an 8.7% increase, assets on traditional and digital markets will likely fall in price on expectations of another interest rate increase after September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

And the outcome of the announcement that rampant inflation has indeed cooled off, with
Quote
"The Consumer Price Index climbed 8.5 percent in the year through July, compared with 9.1 percent the prior month, a bigger slowdown than economists had projected. "

 well, bitcoin didn't disappoint:


Let's not even try to think this was a coincidence, the spike was like ~3 minutes from the CPI number release, no, not even a chance of being something else, and the only news about crypto in the papers is that Coinbase has lost a billion last quarter, which I wouldn't call positive.

So, at this point, can we start thinking that, looking alone at the price and not usage or adoption or anything else, a good economy with lower inflation and constant economic growth is far better than the recessions, bloodbaths, economical wars that were supposed to bring the price to 1 million a piece since every starved jobless zombie would buy coins?
3233  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Another one bites the dust: lending platform Hodlnaut on: August 10, 2022, 11:04:21 AM
According to The Block:

Crypto lending platform Hodlnaut halts withdrawals and is working on a recovery plan

It would have sounded better:
Quote
Crypto lending platform Hodlnaut hodls withdrawals and is working on a recovery plan

If I scroll down and somebody has already posted this I'm going to get really mad!  Grin

Hodlnaut's problems began when they offered yields if their customers converted to Luna's UST stablecoin to receive yield. What Hodlnaut did was deposit their users' UST to a protocol which was a ponzi called Anchor where the protocol offered up to 19%. Hodlnaut gives their customers 13% and they keep 6% hehehe.

Oh for god's sake, do we have a full list on who invested money in that crap?
What's next, the PBOC, NRZ (nationals rails of Zimbabwe), the Council of Endor, the Avengers Retirement Fund, Umbrella Corporation?

I see their animation is still going on, 4.08% APY on BTC? Yeah, makes sense.
3234  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why are so many Derivative Exchanges are filling for Bankcruptcy ? on: August 10, 2022, 10:54:00 AM
Holy shit you are exaggerating.

Yes... when some of these services end up going belly up, we end up seeing that they had been swimming naked, but that does not mean that everyone operating an exchange or everyone involved in various kinds of bitcoin businesses are without ethics, morals and/or even engaging in the same kinds of fraud and/or misrepresentations and/or failures/refusals to employ sufficient and/adequate risk management.

Sure, I will give you some benefit of the doubt to speculate that there are more of some of the persons and exchanges playing loosey and goosey with customer funds and/or employed degenerate gambling strategies and engaging in self-dealing rather than mostly sound business practices who have so far NOT gotten caught with their pants down and they may have been able to get by so far, this time..

I agree with not everyone, but this not everyone can be 1 out of 1000 and 999 out of 1000 at the same time, more bad guys than nice guys can also mean 501 to 499 and again 999 to 1.   Cheesy

So, we could look at the most known figures, the largest exchanges, and do a bit of superficial math, how many were genuinely in just for the money, how many ended up bankrupting their exchange with greed, and how many encountered "hacks" or "sudden death by natural causes" and the ones that did not do even once something that would make your blood boil.
As I'm truly a good and nice guy and I'm also pretty fair when it comes to things like this  I will take care of the list with the PoS (not the protocol) and list every single scammer, liar, fraudster and you can have the angelic figures. We can start as soon as I figured out how much free space bitcointalk has on its server  Cheesy

Coinbase surely seems like one of them. and maybe it is a matter of degree too, that some of the ones engaging in risky behavior will have had learned to clean up their shit a bit so that they do not end up going bankrupt.. become more responsible.

Responsible? No, even with the first quarter decline they still pushed and bet on NFTs and all other hype products and here are the result of those actions, fresh report:
https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/Q2-2022-Shareholder-Letter.pdf
TL;DR
Quote
Coinbase reported a $1.1 billion net loss, compared with $1.59 billion in net income in the same quarter last year,

My tentative theory is that Cotton (and perhaps others) were using the exchanges as ways to launder money, so it is probably not accurate to call it losses, even though technically there were losses involved.. in other words, Cotton was NOT likely so innocent as to have had been gambling with customer funds to try to get the money back, but instead just using those techniques as ways to get money to himself and/or to anyone who he was sharing with.

Hmm, it would have been a complicated thing, if you use something to launder money you don't lose things, casinos that are used for money laundering don't go bankrupt like this, and neither are all those restaurant chains or even small businesses when local mobsters launder their extortion revenues. If he would have mainly done so then it would have made little sense to tap the customer funds, and I think that when you launder money you're looking at keeping a low profile, so why embezzle all this and make yourself a target for the police for a whole new truckload of reasons? Also, if those losses would be coming from money laundering do you think anyone would file reports for that?

And if we go further down the theory with the money laundering, on one side his "death" starts making sense as he wash probably eliminated but the cause could only have been by him again putting his full fist in the honey jar and trying to compensate his friends by robbing his customers till there was nothing left to rob.
Too complicated, and we have way to little info to speculate further than this anyway!
3235  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion on: August 10, 2022, 10:30:29 AM
Dude, Russia has over 10,000 sanctions and Russia's GDP is down less than 5%. If this is your success, then what is failure?

But I thought sanctions are not doing a thing, now a 5% drop and further going down acceptable?
It crashed 7.8% during Covid with everything closed and now doing just fine with, just looking above, hundreds of billions in extra income but is going down by 4.9%?

I don't get it, simple I can't, how does this work? You get an extra 30% income from your work but when you come back home you suddenly owe money?  Grin
This must be one economical miracle, or again the devil is in details, the export balance is so high up and the GDP is going down maybe because everything that was made in Russia was dependent on imports, so without imports which have crashed to zero, there is no production, only ladas without airbags and stabilizing aircraft for spare parts.
When you don't even have potatoes so serve at your local McPutin something really fishy must be happening in Mordor.

ps winter is coming.

Yeah, but the only resemblance here is that the guy who kept saying this died in season 1, what was the name of that episode, Baelor or Himars?

3236  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: CZ claim crypto is high risk, here's my opinion on: August 10, 2022, 10:09:00 AM
i think CZ motive is just to make business and profit out of it, regardless of means, we all know many shitty coins enlisted on Binance before now but which are no where to be found today.

Oh no! Impossible!
Mr. CZ or should I say Sir CZ is just a good guy who from the early stages of his involvement in crypto helped the community by faking volumes, and showed the world how crypto and regulations go hand in hand by jumping from one country to another, helped bitcoin so much by charging 10x times more for BTC withdrawals compared to his own tokens, showed the world true cryptocurrencies must be decentralized with his complete centralized network and of course, he did so much for bitcoin development suggest that a rollback should be done on BTC network cause they've lost money.

No, CZ is the nicest guy in the universe, he is doing so much for crypto and bitcoin and nothing, absolutely nothing for himself poor guy.
Does he have a donation address?
3237  Economy / Economics / Re: Russia More Than Triples Current-Account Surplus to $167 Billion on: August 10, 2022, 07:40:48 AM
It is not surprising to read that Russia is profiting from this situation.

Yeah, total profits, then can you explain this?
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-declines-4-yy-q2-after-35-yy-increase-q1-econ-ministry-2022-07-27/

Quote
The Russian economy declined by 4.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2022 after a 3.5% rise in the previous three months, the economy ministry said on Wednesday.
The first quarter was expected to have been the last with sound growth before the Russian economy took a hit from sweeping sanctions for Moscow's decision to send troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.
The ministry also said the economic decline deepened to 4.9% year-on-year in June after a fall of 4.3% in May.

Yeah, when Europe grows by 0.9% the European Union is going to collapse, when Russia's GDP is down 4%, the fall accelerated to 4.9% and their oil is selling at 74$ , Russia is doing soooooo great!
Now I understand why our discussion on the other thread went like this, confirmed, you see only what you want to see, suddenly when it comes to this government you fully trust all the data! Yeah, ironic!

3238  Economy / Services / Re: 1000 USD bounty for whoever helps me get my money back on: August 09, 2022, 02:51:23 PM
I will suggest you reach out to payback team thou I'm not too sure if they can handle your issue. This is the link to their site and mail address respectively.
payback website
payback mail address

Do not advertise that scam here, it's a scam company known for taking money upfront for your case, and then you're not going to hear a word from them anymore, fake reviews, fake statements, a shell company with a shady license and ten phone operators, nothing else.

Quote
Disclaimer: Payback Ltd offers each new client a free consultation. Funds Recovery or other services that will be subsequently commissioned will incur fees and/or commissions, based on the service and the complexity of each individual case. Payback Ltd doesn’t offer any investments, financial services, or advice.
The services provided by Money Back LTD are conditioned by the client’s signature on the service agreement. The fixed-fee paid for services rendered in the relevant engagement with each customer, is not refundable and is not conditioned by the results.

They are tricking you with free consulting and then charging you thousands of dollars each month for their service of looking for the coin.

3239  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Discussion (Altcoins) / Re: Tornado Cash mixing service is now blacklisted in US on: August 09, 2022, 12:27:33 PM
What would google do? Shutdown chipmixer?
I hope you are joking  Cheesy

You don't need government action and you don't even need an actual move from google for making things worse, just a bot automatically accepting a scammer DMCA attempt, and there you have it. As for actually shutting down, chipmixer isn't at this point accessible over tor, of course, tor was under attack too but the timing of those events is a bit unsettling.

Google can only remove the website appearing on google results, but you can't deny that lots of website reviews made a chipmixer reviews already which will show on google including their ANN thread.

Don't trust a single review website other than the bitcointalk link, most are set up by scammers and are actually linking to fake addresses, we've had enough examples to date of such things.


3240  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What percentage of people in the USA do you think haven't paid taxes on trades? on: August 09, 2022, 12:12:55 PM
Isn't it insane that only in the USA, they tax trades and then expect YOU to figure out how much you "owe"??
Imagine going to the grocery store and the cashier scans all your items, her computer tells her how much you owe, but she wont tell you, and instead, expects you to calculate everything and if you're wrong, you go to jail.

It's quite the other way around, you go with a bag full of products, you tell the cashier that is worth 100$ you pay and you go on your way. If the guards stop you and you have 1000$ worth of merchandise they call the police.

Isn't it insane that only in the USA, they tax trades and then expect YOU to figure out how much you "owe"??

No, the US is not the only one that taxes this, and in every country in Europe that I know of you have to come with the amount you owe first.

AFAIK, it's just for cashing out or for when you make a purchase which can be taxable.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/virtual-currencies
Quote
The sale or other exchange of virtual currencies, or the use of virtual currencies to pay for goods or services, or holding virtual currencies as an investment, generally has tax consequences that could result in tax liability.
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