Trading with leverage isn’t bad, the good thing about it is that it magnifies your profit. But then it also has its bad side which is magnifying your losses as well. I wouldn’t really say that it is that bad, as long as you know what you are doing and you are very sure that the decision you are about to make is going to work out and you make profit from it, if not then you are going to end up with a huge loss.

Anyone who is trading with leverage can use a little amount of money to make about 100% of what they’re trading with, but without leverage you’re making less, so This is why a lot of people like to trade with leverage. But at the same time they are taking a huge risk.

You can't really compare taproot with segwit fork so I don't expect this would be the reason for any major price change, but I am not worried about that because we have our good old fiat printing machine for that purpose.
Taproot benefits are mostly related with scripts and multisig setups, and I doubt many people are using this options.

Hey.. as soon as I figured I have addressed your earlier question, you get into some other area.

Do you have any comments on the main part that I already addressed?  Asked and answered no?  If there is a time to quibble then at least if we stay topic, then that would be better, no?

Furthermore, you seem to want to get into the weeds of events that I have already outlined (at least from my perspective) to be quite unrealistic anyhow.. so who should give any shits, besides you Wind_FURY, about those outlier events that drags us way further in the weeds?  Sure it could affect how you think about what may more may happen by December 7 of this year? 

In other words, should we not be attempting to focus on more likely scenarios than talking about some thing that I have already labelled to have less than 5% chance of happening (if that)?

I mentioned that the actual cycle could end up getting dragged out as late as 3rd quarter 2022 rather than happening within the range of the calendar year expectations.. yeah, if you want to get into supercycle theories, then that surely does seem to be a new topic.. and maybe perhaps you are also assigning higher than 5% odds that this particular cycle could drag out beyond the 3rd quarter of 2022 (which also seem to be the opposite of what you were asserting in your earlier post when you seemed to have been poo-pooing my supposition that this particular cycle could even go beyond this calendar year).  I personally don't see any need to get further into the weeds than we have already gotten.

Perhaps at the start of this thread even OP and some others were suggesting the top of this cycle may well end up being this calendar year?  and surely we can already see that concern in this thread would at least be around something like what's happening this calendar year, such as by December 7.

FTFY

I am not even saying longer cycles, except to say this particular cycle could drag out as late as 3rd quarter..

Here's my attempt to answer the question regarding how high of a probability for the top of this cycle dragging out until 3rd quarter of 2022.

Here's my attempt to not even get into the weeds of talking about what I had already assigned as a 5% probability that the top for this cycle could end up dragging out past the third quarter of 2022.

The most important thing is to correctly assess the risks. It should be understood that for a trader this is a really important question, on which the result of the work can depend quite strongly.

This is a very bad advice for beginners. Man, If y'all beginners manage to stumble upon this, DO NOT OVER LEVERAGE! or better yet, NEVER GO TO FUTURES and MASTER FUNDAMENTALS in trading first instead! If you really are itching to trade, do spot while you are still learning about the fundamentals and only use 1-5% of your funds first. Normally, I would advice beginners to start off with the top 20 coins when still learning the basics on trading. But if you are really stubborn and want to try trading shitcoins (which I strongly advice beginners to stay away from) just use 1% of your funds.

Another thing you can do is unvest on good potential low cap coins or start ups. This is a but riskier though but with proper research about specifics like developing team of the altcoin/project, partners and its community, you can drastically lessen the risk.

- Bottom line is that if you have enough time and/or money to invest, please please please do invest first on at least the very basic fundamentals/knowledge about this industry and trading if you are interested in trading before jumping in. Break the cycle guys, to not repeat the mistakes that I, along with dozens of traders have done and may still he doing to this day. You have the chance to learn without experiencing regret, don't waste it.

Because you see, crypto investing and trading is more like a survival game. How long you can sustain constant "just enough profitability" with minimal risk is more important than rare huge wins that are followed by recurring huge losses.


Now if you really don't want to go through such hassle, then better go and gamble in a casino. Because as what I like to say;

"While crypto lottery like jackpot wins really do happen and is not impossible, it doesn't happen pretty often nor does it costs cheap.
Remember, survivor bias is real; you will always hear about the jackpot winners but not about the ones who have gotten their life savings liquidated."


Hope this helps y'all beginners out there.

But did that slowdown Bitcoin adaption?

Did it disrupt Bitcoin development?

Did it cause network censorship (e.g. port 8333 blocked)?

If you care about Bitcoin adoption/usage, you would show "good" usage of Bitcoin.

@Wind_FURY I would say that the thing with your statement is that it is entirely true, but will be portrayed by Bitcoin opponents and the media in a different way regardless. That doesn't stop Bitcoin, but it might slow it down in so far as the skeptics get a confirmation of their misguided understanding (or simply the lack thereof) of Bitcoin and what it is all about. They twist the neutrality proposition of Bitcoin into something that is bad because when everyone is the same it would mean the bad guys are as good as the good guys and vice versa, while not understanding that (quote:) "“good usage” and “bad usage” does not exist in the blockchain".

Based on bitcoinaverage.com, I wouldn't be surprised if bull cycles continue to occur less frequently (and thus become longer):


I don't think guessing the probability makes sense though: it won't be possible to verify this prediction afterwards anyway.

For sure, whether we are referring to bitcoin price cycles or even various price points on the cycles there can be a lot of deviation from expectations in terms of how far from the expected mean whether we are referring to whether the price is above or below the mean or the quantity.

The combination of the three models that I have liked to attempt to use because they seem to be most credible in current times would be the stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.. so yeah, both the stock to flow and four-year fractal contain the four-year cycle built into them, so quite a bit of weight is given to the prognostications that stay within the confines of the four year parameters, so yeah more weight would be given to expectations that would keep the price runs falling within time frames that they had occurred in the past - again within 4-year parameters.

Am I making no sense yet, Loyce?  I agree it does not make a lot of sense to plug percentages into whether BTC prices peak in this calendar year (less than two months left - presuming the peak is higher than it has already gotten - $67,017) or whether the price peak for this cycle drags out until 1st quarter, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter of 2022..

But as I think about it, maybe I can force myself into a way of reconsidering the whole matter and come out with assignments of probabilities something like this:

Already peaked out in 2021 at $67,017: 41.5%

Peaks out higher than $60,017 at some point in 2021: 18.5%

Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 17.5%

Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 10.5%

Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 7%

Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022: 5%

Sure, somewhat I am shooting these numbers out of my ass, but they do add up to 100%... and to answer your question Wind_FURY, it appears that my numbers for peaking out in 2021 add up to about 60%, so that leaves about 40% odds that they peak out after 2021.  

And as I think through the matter.. assigning percentages did seem to help me to attempt to put some more specific context in my thoughts... so it appears that even if we might not be able to verify exactly how right we are, we still can assign probabilities to timeline and to price (here's one that I did regarding BTC price 5 days ago).. and sure the more that we attempt to structure those matters the harder it is to exactly pinpoint them.. and we can ONLY do our best to attempt to estimate from our own perspectives (which is also something that does not exactly stay static).  So, not being able to verify whether we were right or not because we are not making 100% assignments to black or white on x date, but it still seems to help us to get through some of our thinking about if we might be assigning (even on a personal level) too high or too low towards the occurrence of certain scenarios.

Members here are going to have differing views on how they assign probabilities to these matters, and maybe few of us have thought about how to specifically assign to timeline in a similar way as we might assign to price.... but it makes sense that we do need to consider both timeline and price, and just calling one might not be as helpful as being able to attempt to assign probabilities to both (each of them).   We can move this over to another thread, too because it seems to be deviating quite a bit, no?

I think that the point is that none of us know how long it will take for this cycle to play out, and/or if the cycle is going to look like the historical cycles or if it will take some kind of new form that causes the use of cycles (or the 4 -year fractal) to become a less convincing way of framing BTC price expectations.  So, if we speculate that there still is going to be a kind of four year cycle that could end this calendar year or it could drag out until the 3rd quarter of 2022.. those all seem somewhat reasonably plausible in terms of attempting to frame expectations regarding more likely scenarios.. even if you or I might assign higher/lower probabilities to certain ways of attempting to frame the matter.

Personally, I do believe that it is better to attempt to prepare for a decently large variety of scenarios even ones that go beyond your expectations.. but of course, your level of preparations should also attempt to be proportional too..

If you care about Bitcoin adoption/usage, you would show "good" usage of Bitcoin.

I get the idea, but that putting Bitcoin as something that helps the Taliban doesn't look good to me.

Maybe they will learn their lesson and buy Bitcoion for what is good for them but they have a mentality of the Middle Ages. They don't seem to be very open-minded about decentralized systems.

In December, they announced that the Lightning Network support was expected to be available in the first half of 2021. It looks like they are still working on it.


They probably don't feel any pressure to do so because: 1) The transaction fees have been extremely low for quite some time now. 2) Even if any large exchange implements Lightning late, there still will be a lot of people willing to open a channel with their node.

wanted to share with everyone here another interesting article about the lightning network, which was published today by the Kraken exchange


https://www.kraken.com/learn/lightning-network

Afghanistan's Taliban government is pressing for the release of billions of dollars of central bank reserves as the drought-stricken nation faces a cash crunch, mass starvation and a new migration crisis.

Afghanistan parked billions of dollars in assets overseas with the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks in Europe, but that money has been frozen since the Islamist Taliban ousted the Western-backed government in August.

Are you sure you've understood my posts?!
The dumping part I have been talking about was in the ICO era. That was in 2017. And many of those ICOs were sold on their own website, most probably there were many that didn't get to exchanges and I am not convinced that all have implemented anything more than the website.

Have we beaten this horse to death including discussions of the various considerations that cause various methods to have a lot more benefits?